Journal of Geographical Sciences

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Multi-scenario land use prediction and layout optimization in Nanjing Metropolitan Area based on the PLUS model

CAO Ji, CAO Weidong, CAO Yuhong, WANG Xuewei, ZHANG Yizhen, MA Jinji

Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2024, 34(7): 1415-1436. DOI: 10.1007/s11442-024-2254-7

Predict types	Business as usual			Economic development			Ecological protection
Land-use type (km²)	2030	2040	2050	2030	2040	2050	2030	2040	2050
Farmland	37,524	36,491	35,512	37,364	36,335	35,361	37,614	36,579	35,598
Forest	12,669	12,447	12,220	12,648	12,427	12,200	12,703	12,482	12,254
Grassland	2413	2451	2460	2393	2431	2439	2450	2489	2498
Water body	6366	6200	6060	6336	6171	6032	6420	6253	6111
Built-up land	6470	7853	9190	6700	8078	9410	6253	7640	8981

Table 9 Land use prediction of Nanjing Metropolitan Area in different scenarios

Other figure/table from this article

Figure 1 Administrative divisions and terrain of the study area (Nanjing Metropolitan Area)
Figure 2 Research framework diagram
Table 1 Data sources
Table 2 EESC Indicators system
Figure 3 Forecast and reality comparison in Nanjing Metropolitan Area in 2020
Figure 4 Land use in Nanjing Metropolitan Area (a. 2000; b. 2010; c. 2020)
Table 3 Area and proportion of each land use type in Nanjing Metropolitan Area
Figure 5 Transfer of land use change in Nanjing Metropolitan Area from 2000 to 2020
Table 4-1 Land use transfer in Nanjing Metropolitan Area from 2000 to 2010
Table 4-2 Land use transfer in Nanjing Metropolitan Area from 2010 to 2020
Figure 6 Distribution of ecological-economic spatial conflict in Nanjing Metropolitan Area (a. 2000; b. 2010; c. 2020)
Table 5 Area composition of different conflict types in Nanjing Metropolitan Area (%)
Figure 7 Composition of land use in different years of each conflict type in Nanjing Metropolitan Area (A, B and C refer to 2000, 2010 and 2020; 01, 02, 03, 04 and 05 refer to lowest, low, medium, high, highest spatial conflict levels, respectively.)
Table 6 Area and proportion of each main functional area plan type in Nanjing Metropolitan Area
Table 7 The PLUS model development zone setting in Nanjing Metropolitan Area
Figure 8 Setting diagram of the development zone under different scenarios in Nanjing Metropolitan Area (a. BAU scenario; b. ED scenario; c. EP scenario)
Table 8 Description table of different scenario settings in Nanjing Metropolitan Area
Figure 9 Land use of Nanjing Metropolitan Area under different scenarios in 2030-2050

模态框（Modal）标题

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