Journal of Geographical Sciences

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Multi-scenario land use prediction and layout optimization in Nanjing Metropolitan Area based on the PLUS model

CAO Ji, CAO Weidong, CAO Yuhong, WANG Xuewei, ZHANG Yizhen, MA Jinji

Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2024, 34(7): 1415-1436. DOI: 10.1007/s11442-024-2254-7

Scenario type	Description
Business as usual (BAU)	The conversion between the land use types in this scenario was completely following the LUCC in 2000, 2010, and 2020, and without any manual intervention.
Economic development (ED)	Economic development continued to be the overarching goal in most regions. This study proposed an economic development scenario, which was based on the BAU. In this scenario, the probability of farmland convert to built-up land increased by 20% and forest, grassland, and water conversion increased by 10% (Liu et al., 2011).
Ecological protection (EP)	With the concept of ecological civilization gaining increasing attention, the establishment of an eco-friendly society was gradually becoming a prominent item. Accordingly, an ecological protection scenario was set up in this study based on the BAU scenario, under which the probability of converting farmland to built-up land decreased by 10%, and the possibility of other land types to built-up land decreased by 20% (Dong et al., 2022).

Table 8 Description table of different scenario settings in Nanjing Metropolitan Area

Other figure/table from this article

Figure 1 Administrative divisions and terrain of the study area (Nanjing Metropolitan Area)
Figure 2 Research framework diagram
Table 1 Data sources
Table 2 EESC Indicators system
Figure 3 Forecast and reality comparison in Nanjing Metropolitan Area in 2020
Figure 4 Land use in Nanjing Metropolitan Area (a. 2000; b. 2010; c. 2020)
Table 3 Area and proportion of each land use type in Nanjing Metropolitan Area
Figure 5 Transfer of land use change in Nanjing Metropolitan Area from 2000 to 2020
Table 4-1 Land use transfer in Nanjing Metropolitan Area from 2000 to 2010
Table 4-2 Land use transfer in Nanjing Metropolitan Area from 2010 to 2020
Figure 6 Distribution of ecological-economic spatial conflict in Nanjing Metropolitan Area (a. 2000; b. 2010; c. 2020)
Table 5 Area composition of different conflict types in Nanjing Metropolitan Area (%)
Figure 7 Composition of land use in different years of each conflict type in Nanjing Metropolitan Area (A, B and C refer to 2000, 2010 and 2020; 01, 02, 03, 04 and 05 refer to lowest, low, medium, high, highest spatial conflict levels, respectively.)
Table 6 Area and proportion of each main functional area plan type in Nanjing Metropolitan Area
Table 7 The PLUS model development zone setting in Nanjing Metropolitan Area
Figure 8 Setting diagram of the development zone under different scenarios in Nanjing Metropolitan Area (a. BAU scenario; b. ED scenario; c. EP scenario)
Figure 9 Land use of Nanjing Metropolitan Area under different scenarios in 2030-2050
Table 9 Land use prediction of Nanjing Metropolitan Area in different scenarios

模态框（Modal）标题

Figure/Table detail