Journal of Geographical Sciences

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Multi-objective spatial optimization by considering land use suitability in the Yangtze River Delta region

CHENG Qianwen, LI Manchun, LI Feixue, LIN Yukun, DING Chenyin, XIAO Lishan, LI Weiyue

地理学报(英文版), 2026, 36(1): 45-78. DOI: 10.1007/s11442-026-2438-4

Constraint types	Constraint conditions	Explanations
Total area	${\displaystyle \sum _{i}^{i=\text{6}}{x}_{i}}=352,180.66{\text{km}}^{2}$	The total area of all land use types is equal to the total land area of the YRD region.
Farmland area constraint (x₁)	156,929.47 km²≤x₁≤160,638.37 km²	Farmland area shall not be less than the guaranteed amount of farmland (127,261 km²) stipulated in 2020 overall land use planning (OLUP) and the farmland area in 2035 (156,929.47 km²) calculated according to the rate of farmland reduction from 1990 to 2018; The maximum shall not exceed the sum of the total area minus the minimum value of other types of land (160,638.37 km²).
Forest area constraint (x₂)	100,065 km²≤x₂≤103,773.9 km²	Forest area shall not be less than the guaranteed amount of forest (100,065 km²) stipulated in 2020 overall land use planning (OLUP); The maximum shall not exceed the sum of the total area minus the minimum value of other types of land (103,773.90 km²).
Grassland constraint (x₃)	9736.04 km²≤x₃≤13,444.94 km²	The minimum shall not be less than the grassland area in 2035 (9736.04 km²) calculated according to the grassland reduction rate in YRD region from 1990 to 2018; The maximum shall not exceed the sum of the total area minus the minimum value of other types of land (13,444.94 km²).
Water area constraint (x₄)	25,933.81 km²≤x₄≤27,097.33 km²	Due to the heavy precipitation in YRD, the water area continued to increase during the study period, so the minimum water area in 2035 should not be less than that in 2018 (25,933.81 km²). It shall not exceed the water area in 2035 (27,097.33 km²) calculated according to the increase speed of water area in YRD region from 1990 to 2018.
Construction land constraint (x₅)	47,357 km²≤x₅≤ 59,489 km²	The minimum shall not be less than construction land area in 2018 (47,357.00 km²); The maximum shall not exceed 110% (59,489.00 km²) of the demand for construction land under ID scenario.
Unused land constraint (x₆)	325.44 km²≤x₆≤ 475.75 km²	The minimum shall not be less than unused land area in 2018 (325.44 km²); It shall not exceed the unused land area in 2035 (475.75 km²) calculated according to the increase speed of unused area in YRD region from 1990 to 2018.

Table 1 Constraint conditions of land-use demand

本文的其它图/表

Figure 1 Location of the study area (Yangtze River Delta region)
Figure 2 The ES-FS-USD spatial optimization framework
Table 2 Land-use demand in the Yangtze River Delta region in 2035 under four scenarios (km²)
Figure 3 Pareto front distribution based on the double objectives of economic benefits and ecological benefits under the SD scenario
Table 3 Calculation methods for ecosystem services
Table 4 Calculation methods of ecosystem sensitivity
Figure 4 Weights and resistance values of expansion resistance factors of ecological source in the Yangtze River Delta region
Table 5 Cluster-factor analysis results
Table 6 Weighting based on the entropy method
Table 7 Evaluation index system for the socio-economic sustainable development level in the Yangtze River Delta region
Figure 5 Land-use simulation results in 2035 under four scenarios in the Yangtze River Delta region
Figure 6 Differences in detail in land-use patterns in the Yangtze River Delta region
Table 8 Landscape pattern index of different land-use types in the Yangtze River Delta region
Figure 7 Identification of ecological sources in the Yangtze River Delta region
Figure 8 Distribution of ecological protection importance of ecological land in 2035 simulated under the SD scenario in the Yangtze River Delta region
Figure 9 Result of the evaluation of agricultural production suitability in the Yangtze River Delta region
Figure 10 Normalized assessment index and assessment of the economic potential of green agriculture in the Yangtze River Delta region
Figure 11 Integrated evaluation of urban construction suitability in the Yangtze River Delta region
Figure 12 Evaluation indices and result of the socioeconomic sustainable development level in the Yangtze River Delta region
Figure 13 Urban construction suitability of construction land in 2035 under the SD scenario in the Yangtze River Delta region
Figure 14 Spatial optimization of the Yangtze River Delta region in 2035
Table S1 Land use conversion matrix under ID scenario
Table S2 Land use conversion matrix under ESP scenario
Table S3 Land use conversion matrix under EDP scenario
Table S4 Land use conversion matrix under SD scenario
Table S5 Neighborhood weight setting for each land use type under four simulated scenarios
Table S6 Weight assignment results of evaluation indicators of socio-economic sustainable development
Figure S1 Ecological protecting importance in the YRD region and distribution of non-ecological land in 2035 in extremely important area of ecological protection
Figure S2 Evaluation of agricultural production suitability
Figure S3 Agricultural production suitability of farmland in 2035 simulated under SD scenario and distribution of non-farmland simulated under SD scenario in highly suitable and moderately suitable area of agricultural production suitability
Figure S4 Spatial comparison between proportion of farmland area under ID scenario and assessment result of economic potential of green agriculture in the YRD region
Figure S5 Spatial comparison between development intensity under SD scenario and socioeconomic sustainable development level in the YRD region
Table S7 Soil and water resources base discrimination matrix
Table S8 Discriminant matrix of agricultural production conditions
Table S9 Evaluation matrix of suitability grade of agricultural production modified by disaster risk evaluation
Table S10 Climatic comfort grading standard
Table S11 Grading standard of quiet wind days
Table S12 Grading standard of average wind speed over many years
Table S13 Soil and water resources base discrimination matrix
Table S14 Evaluation matrix of suitability grade of urban construction modified by atmospheric environmental capacity evaluation
Table S15 Evaluation matrix of suitability grade of urban construction modified by climatic comfort evaluation
Table S16 Evaluation matrix of suitability grade of urban construction modified by location superiority evaluation

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