To understand the spatio-temporal variability of precipitation (P) in the Third Pole region (centered on the Tibetan Plateau-TP), it is necessary to quantify the interannual periodicity of P and its relationship with large-scale circulations. In this study, Morlet wavelet transform was used to detect significant (p<0.05) periodic characteristics in P data from meteorological stations in four climate domains in the Third Pole, and to reveal the major large-scale circulations that triggered the variability of periodic P, in addition to bringing large amounts of water vapour. The wavelet transform results were as follows. (1) Significant quasi- periodicity varied from 2 to 11 years. The high-frequency variability mode (2 to 6 years quasi-periods) was universal, and the low-frequency variability mode (7 to 11 years quasi-periods) was rare, occurring mainly in the westerlies and Indian monsoon domains. (2) The majority of periods were base periods (53%), followed by two-base periods. Almost all stations in the Third Pole (95%) showed one or two periods. (3) Periodicity was widely detected in the majority of years (84%). (4) The power spectra of P in the four domains were dominated by statistically significant high-frequency oscillations (i.e., with short periodicity). (5) Large-scale circulations directly and indirectly influenced the periodic P variability in the different domains. The mode of P variability in the different domains was influenced by interactions between large-scale circulation features and not only by the dominant circulation and its control of water vapour transport. The results of this study will contribute to better understanding of the causal mechanisms associated with P variability, which is important for hydrological science and water resource management.

The joint study of agriculture and rural areas is of great significance for safeguarding agricultural development, revitalizing rural areas, and enhancing farmers’ well-being. This paper aims to assess the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the coupling and coordination degree of agricultural resilience and rural land use efficiency and their dynamic transfer law and driving mechanisms, based on panel data of 31 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) in China from 2010 to 2020. The results showed: (1) Good coupling and coordination of agricultural resilience and rural land use efficiency, with reduced temporal differentiation degrees between regions; (2) Significant spatial autocorrelation between the overall coupling and coordination degrees of agricultural resilience and rural land use efficiency, forming cold spot and hot spot spatial patterns in the western and eastern parts, respectively, with a central transition area; (3) A spillover effect of the dynamic transfer process, with a manifested specific law as “club convergence”, “Matthew effect”, and progressive development characteristics; (4) The key roles of the natural, social, economic, and policy indicators in the coupling and coordination development process of agricultural resilience and rural land use efficiency. However, the selected indicators showed substantial spatial differences in their influences on the coupling and coordination process between provinces.

In the context of global warming, escalating water cycles have led to a surge in drought frequency and severity. Yet, multidecadal fluctuations in drought and their multifaceted influencing factors remain inadequately understood. This study examined the multidecadal changes in drought characteristics (frequency, duration, and severity) and their geographical focal points within China’s north-south transitional zone, the Qinling-Daba Mountains (QDM), from 1960 to 2017 using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). In addition, a suite of eight scenarios, correlation analysis, and wavelet coherence were used to identify the meteorological and circulation factors that influenced drought characteristics. The results indicate the following: (1) From 1960 to 2017, the QDM experienced significant interdecadal variations in drought frequency, duration, and severity, the climate was relatively humid before the 1990s, but drought intensified thereafter. Specifically, the 1990s marked the period of the longest drought duration and greatest severity, while the years spanning 2010 to 2017 experienced the highest frequency of drought events. (2) Spatially, the Qinling Mountains, particularly the western Qinling Mountain, exhibited higher drought frequency, duration, and severity than the Daba Mountains. This disparity can be attributed to higher rates of temperature increase and precipitation decrease in the western Qinling Mountain. (3) Interdecadal variations in droughts in the QDM were directly influenced by the synergistic effects of interdecadal fluctuations in air temperature and precipitation. Circulation factors modulate temperature and precipitation through phase transitions, thereby affecting drought dynamics in the QDM. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation emerges as the primary circulation factors influencing temperature changes, with a mid-1990s shift to a positive phase favoring warming. The East Asian Summer Monsoon and El Niño-Southern Oscillation are the main circulation factors affecting precipitation changes, with positive phase transitions associated with reduced precipitation, and vice versa for increased precipitation.

Changes in surface temperature extremes have become a global concern. Based on the daily lowest temperature (TN) and daily highest temperature (TX) data from 2138 weather stations in China from 1961 to 2020, we calculated 14 extreme temperature indices to analyze the characteristics of extreme temperature events. The widespread changes observed in all extreme temperature indices suggest that China experienced significant warming during this period. Specifically, the cold extreme indices, such as cold nights, cold days, frost days, icing days, and the cold spell duration index, decreased significantly by −6.64, −2.67, −2.96, −0.97, and −1.01 days/decade, respectively. In contrast, we observed significant increases in warm extreme indices. The number of warm nights, warm days, summer days, tropical nights, and warm spell duration index increased by 8.44, 5.18, 2.81, 2.50, and 1.66 d/decade, respectively. In addition, the lowest TN, highest TN, lowest TX, and highest TX over the entire period rose by 0.47, 0.22, 0.26, and 0.16°C/decade, respectively. Furthermore, using Pearson’s correlation and wavelet coherence analyses, this study identified a strong association between extreme temperature indices and atmospheric circulation factors, with varying correlation strengths and resonance periods across different time-frequency domains.

Rural vitality is the life force expressed by a combination of endogenous dynamics and external influences. Exploring the complex relationship between rural functions, elements and flows could achieve sustainable rural development. This study constructed a theoretical framework guided by the four functions of production, living, ecology and culture with the support of mobile big data. Furthermore, the network centrality of villages was estimated to reflect the intensity of urban-rural social mobility ties. The results indicated marked spatial disparities in rural vitality, and the coupling of ecological-cultural vitality has a high degree of coherence. Four rural vitality grades were identified: high level (38, 14.08%), medium-high level (66, 24.44%), medium-low level (110, 40.74%) and low level (56, 20.74%), covering 270 administrative village units. The flow intensity of social linkage elements is consistent with rural vitality and the socioeconomic spillover effect of urban centers on neighboring villages was noticeable. Topographic complexity negatively affected the living function, mainly in the T1 and T2 terrain gradients; the rural ecological function was not fully correlated with urban adjacency, and proximity could lead to adverse effects such as urban sprawl and resource destruction. The application of this study is to explore the importance of “flow” by utilizing mobile big data to refine the evaluation unit to the village scale. Accelerating the construction of network coverage and information interconnection and promoting the elemental flow of people, transportation and information between urban and rural areas are important ways to enhance rural vitality.

Resilience studies have long been a focal point in the fields of geography, social science, urban studies, and psychology. Recently, resilience studies from multiple disciplines have scrutinized resilience at an individual scale. As one important behavior in the daily life of human beings, travel behavior is characterized by spatial dependence, spatiotemporal dynamics, and group heterogeneity. Moreover, how to understand the interaction between travel behavior (or demand) and transportation supply and their dynamics is a fundamental question in transportation studies when transportation systems encounter unexpected disturbances. This paper refines the definition of travel behavior resilience based on fundamental theories from multiple disciplines, including ecology, transportation engineering, and psychology. Additionally, this paper proposes a conceptual theoretical framework of travel behavior resilience based on the dynamic equilibrium characteristics of transportation supply and demand. In general, travel behavior has three stages of variation, namely, dramatic reduction, rapid growth, and fluctuation recovery, which have helped capture the travel behavior resilience triangle. Then, we construct a corresponding evaluation methodology that is suitable for multiscale and multidimensional perspectives. We emphasize that the evaluation of travel behavior resilience should be process-oriented with temporal continuity or capture the inflection points of travel behavior. Using multisource big data such as mobile phone signaling data and smart card data, this paper reviews empirical studies on travel behavior resilience, exploring its spatial heterogeneity and group differences. With location-based analysis, we confirm that people show greater travel behavior resilience in places where people engage in various socioeconomic activities. The group-based analysis shows that age and socioeconomic attributes of mobility groups significantly affect travel behavior resilience. Travel behavior resilience can be one pillar, offering geographic perspectives in resilience studies. In the future, the study of travel behavior resilience at multiple scales and from multiple perspectives can explore the spatial heterogeneity of transportation re-equilibrium and travel modal differences, contributing to urban spatial structure studies. Studying travel behavior resilience can provide scientific and technological support for urban management and resilient city construction.

Flood susceptibility modeling is crucial for rapid flood forecasting, disaster reduction strategies, evacuation planning, and decision-making. Machine learning (ML) models have proven to be effective tools for assessing flood susceptibility. However, most previous studies have focused on individual models or comparative performance, underscoring the unique strengths and weaknesses of each model. In this study, we propose a stacking ensemble learning algorithm that harnesses the strengths of a diverse range of machine learning models. The findings reveal the following: (1) The stacking ensemble learning, using RF-XGB- CB-LR model, significantly enhances flood susceptibility simulation. (2) In addition to rainfall, key flood drivers in the study area include NDVI, and impervious surfaces. Over 40% of the study area, primarily in the northeast and southeast, exhibits high flood susceptibility, with higher risks for populations compared to cropland. (3) In the northeast of the study area, heavy precipitation, low terrain, and NDVI values are key indicators contributing to high flood susceptibility, while long-duration precipitation, mountainous topography, and upper reach vegetation are the main drivers in the southeast. This study underscores the effectiveness of ML, particularly ensemble learning, in flood modeling. It identifies vulnerable areas and contributes to improved flood risk management.

Glaciers are considered to be ‘climate-sensitive indicators’ and ‘solid reservoirs’, and their changes significantly impact regional water security. The mass balance (MB) from 2011 to 2020 of the Qiyi Glacier in the northeast Tibetan Plateau is presented based on field observations. The glacier showed a persistent negative balance over 9 years of in-situ observations, with a mean MB of −0.51 m w.e. yr⁻¹. The distributed energy-mass balance model was used for glacier MB reconstruction from 1980 to 2020. The daily meteorological data used in the model were from HAR v2 reanalysis data, with automatic weather stations located in the middle and upper parts of the glacier used for deviation correction. The average MB over the past 40 years of the Qiyi Glacier was −0.36 m w.e. yr⁻¹ with the mass losses since the beginning of the 21st century, being greater than those in the past. The glacier runoff shows a significant increasing trend, contributing ~81% of the downstream river runoff. The albedo disparity indicates that the net shortwave radiation is much higher in the ablation zone than in the accumulation zone, accelerating ablation-area expansion and glacier mass depletion. The MB of the Qiyi Glacier is more sensitive to temperature and incoming shortwave radiation variation than precipitation. The MB presented a non-linear reaction to the temperature and incoming shortwave radiation. Under future climate warming, the Qiyi Glacier will be increasingly likely to deviate from the equilibrium state, thereby exacerbating regional water balance risks. It is found that the mass losses of eastern glaciers are higher than those of western glaciers, indicating significant spatial heterogeneity that may be attributable to the lower altitude and smaller area distribution of the eastern glaciers.

Since China’s reform and opening-up in 1978, rapid urbanization has coincided with a surge in carbon emissions. Statistical, geospatial, and time-series analysis methods were utilized to examine the dynamic relationship between urbanization and carbon emissions over the past 43 years; elucidate the mechanisms through which dimensions of urbanization, such as population, land, economy, and green development, impact carbon emissions at various stages; and further explore the heterogeneity among cities of different scales. The analysis reveals that 2001 and 2011 represent significant turning points in China’s carbon emission growth “S” curve. The phase of rapid carbon emissions growth is associated with an increase in the urbanization rate from 40% to 50%, a shift in industrial structure from being dominated by secondary industry to tertiary industry, and a decrease in urban population density from 19,600 to 16,000 people per square kilometer of built-up area. Regions northeast of the “Bayannur-Ningde Line” have experienced rapid increases in carbon emissions, with large and medium-sized cities being the primary contributors nationwide. The TVP-VAR results indicate that higher urbanization rates have short-term carbon and mid- to long-term carbon-reducing effects. Population concentration in large cities facilitates short- to mid-term carbon reduction, whereas intensive urban development, industrial upgrading, and the promotion of clean energy use have sustained carbon-reducing effects. Carbon emissions exhibit path dependence. Increased urbanization rates in mega-cities and super-cities result in carbon-increasing effects, whereas the optimization of industrial structures exerts an inhibitory effect on carbon emissions in medium-sized and large cities. The changes in impulse response values of various variables are influenced by the developmental trajectory of Chinese cities from “small to large and then to agglomerations.” These recommendations indicate the necessity for differentiated emission reduction strategies contingent on the specific regions and types of cities in question.

Polder is a type of irrigation field unique to the lower Yangtze River of China. It is a product of long-term and ingenuous human modifications of wetland landscapes. In the pre-Qin Period, 3000 years ago, the poldered area of eastern Wuhu city was once a large lake called the ancient Danyang wetland. The introduction of agricultural civilization and polder technology to the area during the Wu and Yue Kingdoms period gradually transformed it into an agricultural area. With an accelerating rate of land reclamation under a changing late-Holocene regional climate, the ancient Danyang wetland became an aquatic system strongly influenced by intensifying anthropogenic activities. In this study, based on field survey data, historical documents, and remote-sensing and archaeological data, we reconstructed the spatial distribution of the polder landscape over the last 3000 years and identified their structural diversity. We found that polder landscapes began to emerge in the Spring and Autumn Period, land reclamation intensified in the Three Kingdoms and developed rapidly in the Song Dynasty before eventually reaching the peak from the Ming and Qing Dynasties. The relocation of historical sites to low-altitude areas also marked the expansion of poldered fields from the center of the wetland to the southeast and northwest. The development and evolution of the polder landscape are related to regional climate conditions, changing social and economic statuses, and the development of agricultural technology in the Song Dynasty and succeeding periods.

Reference crop evapotranspiration (ET₀) is essential for determining crop water requirements and developing irrigation strategies. In this study, ET₀ was calculated via the FAO-56 Penman‒Monteith model, and the spatiotemporal variations in ET₀ over China from 1960 to 2019 were analyzed. We then quantified the contributions of five driving factors (air temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, sunshine hours, and CO₂ concentration) to the ET₀ trends via a detrending experiment. The results revealed that nationwide ET₀ showed no significant (p>0.05) decreasing trend from 1960 to 2019, with a trend of -8.56×10^-2 mm a^-2. The average temperature and wind speed were identified as the dominant factors affecting ET₀ trends at the national scale. The contributions of the driving factors to the ET₀ trends were ranked in the following order: average temperature (21.3%) > wind speed (-15.63%) > sunshine hours (-11.99%) > CO₂ concentration (6.36%) > relative humidity (3.58%). Spatially, the dominant factors influencing the ET₀ trends varied widely. In the southeastern region, average temperature and sunshine hours dominated the trends of ET₀, whereas wind speed and average temperature were the dominant factors in the northwestern region. The findings provide valuable insights into the dominant factors affecting ET₀ trends in China and highlight the importance of considering different driving factors in calculating crop water requirements.

Reducing carbon emissions from the transport sector is essential for realizing the carbon neutrality goal in China. Despite substantial studies on the influence of urban form on transport CO₂ emissions, most of them have treated the effects as a linear process, and few have studied their nonlinear relationships. This research focused on 274 Chinese cities in 2019 and applied the gradient-boosting decision tree (GBDT) model to investigate the nonlinear effects of four aspects of urban form, including compactness, complexity, scale, and fragmentation, on urban transport CO₂ emissions. It was found that urban form contributed 20.48% to per capita transport CO₂ emissions (PTCEs), which is less than the contribution of socioeconomic development but more than that of transport infrastructure. The contribution of urban form to total transport CO₂ emissions (TCEs) was the lowest, at 14.3%. In particular, the effect of compactness on TCEs was negative within a threshold, while its effect on PTCEs showed an inverted U-shaped relationship. The effect of complexity on PTCEs was positive, and its effect on TCEs was nonlinear. The effect of scale on TCEs and PTCEs was positive within a threshold and negative beyond that threshold. The effect of fragmentation on TCEs was also nonlinear, while its effect on PTCEs was positively linear. These results show the complex effects of the urban form on transport CO₂ emissions. Thus, strategies for optimizing urban form and reducing urban transport carbon emissions are recommended for the future.

Phenological changes play a central role in regulating seasonal variation in the ecological processes, exerting significant impacts on hydrologic and nutrient cycles, and ultimately influencing ecosystem functioning such as carbon uptake. However, the potential impact mechanisms of phenological events on seasonal carbon dynamics in subtropical regions are under-investigated. These knowledge gaps hinder from accurately linking photosynthetic phenology and carbon sequestration capacity. Using chlorophyll fluorescence remote sensing and productivity data from 2000 to 2019, we found that an advancement in spring phenology increased spring gross (GPP) and net primary productivity (NPP) in subtropical vegetation of China by 2.1 gC m⁻² yr⁻¹ and 1.4 gC m⁻² yr⁻¹, respectively. A delay in autumn phenology increased the autumnal GPP and NPP by 0.4 gC m⁻² yr⁻¹ and 0.2 gC m⁻² yr⁻¹, respectively. Temporally, the contribution of the spring phenology to spring carbon uptake increased significantly during the study period, while this positive contribution showed a nonsignificant trend in summer. In comparison, the later autumn phenology could significantly contribute to the increase in autumnal carbon uptake; however, this contributing effect was weakened. Path analysis indicated that these phenomena have been caused by the increased leaf area and enhanced photosynthesis due to earlier spring and later autumn phenology, respectively. Our results demonstrate the diverse impacts of vegetation phenology on the seasonal carbon sequestration ability and it is imperative to consider such asymmetric effects when modeling ecosystem processes parameterized under future climate change.

Urban sprawl has been a prevailing phenomenon in developing countries like China, potentially resulting in significant carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from the transport sector. However, the impact of urban sprawl on transport CO₂ emissions (TCEs) is still not fully understood and remains somewhat rudimentary. To systematically investigate how urban sprawl influences TCEs, we employ panel regression and panel threshold regression for 274 Chinese cities (2005-2020), and obtain some new findings. Our results affirm that the degree of urban sprawl is positively associated with TCEs, and this holds true in different groups of city size and geographical region, while significant heterogeneity is observed in terms of such impact. Interestingly, we find urban sprawl nonlinearly impacts TCEs—with an equal increase in urban sprawl degree, TCEs are even lower in cities with larger population size and better economic condition, particularly in East China. Furthermore, the low-carbon city pilot policy shows potential in mitigating sprawl’s impact on TCEs. Drawing on our findings, we argue that to achieve the target of TCEs reduction in China by curbing urban sprawl, more priority should be placed on relatively small, less developed, and geographically inferior cities for cost-efficiency reasons when formulating future urban development strategies.

Railways are a crucial part of the African transport network and have a significant impact on the socio-economy and urban development. Previous studies have mainly considered the impacts of railways in Africa from the perspective of economy, politics, security, and natural environment with few attempts to consider land use. Based on Landsat remote sensing data for the 10 km buffer zone along the Ethiopian section of the Addis Ababa-Djibouti Railway (ADR) in 2013, 2017, and 2021, we studied the land use change (LUC) in the area and explored its influencing factors using the ordinary least square model (OLS) and geographical weighted regression model (GWR). There were six key results. (1) Farmland, forest, grassland, and others (including sandy land and bare land) were the primary types of land use, but from 2013 to 2021, the area of built-up land and farmland increased, whereas the area of forest, grassland, and other land decreased. (2) There was a noticeable pattern in the degree of change in the area of built-up land, farmland, and forest as the buffer distance increased along the railway. This pattern indicated a gradual shift in land use and LUC gradients. (3) The land use structure and its changes in the areas surrounding different stations displayed obvious differences. (4) The construction and operation of the ADR is one of the direct factors affecting landscape change along the railway. (5) The distance from the train station, whether the station provides a passenger service, the population size, and the distance from the central city had a positive effect on the expansion of built-up land surrounding the station. The factor of whether the station provides a freight service had a negative correlation with the expansion of built-up land. Socio-economic factors have gradually replaced railway factors as the main driving force of the expansion of built-up land around the stations. (6) The effect strength of different factors on the expansion of built-up land varied in the areas surrounding different stations.

Water use efficiency (WUE), as a pivotal indicator of the coupling degree within the carbon-water cycle of ecosystems, holds considerable importance in assessment of the carbon-water balance within terrestrial ecosystems. However, in the context of global warming, WUE evolution and its primary drivers on the Tibetan Plateau remain unclear. This study employed the ensemble empirical mode decomposition method and the random forest algorithm to decipher the nonlinear trends and drivers of WUE on the Tibetan Plateau in 2001- 2020. Results indicated an annual mean WUE of 0.8088 gC/mm∙m² across the plateau, with a spatial gradient reflecting decrease from the southeast toward the northwest. Areas manifesting monotonous trends of increase or decrease in WUE accounted for 23.64% and 9.69% of the total, respectively. Remarkably, 66.67% of the region exhibited trend reversals, i.e., 39.94% of the area of the Tibetan Plateau showed transition from a trend of increase to a trend of decrease, and 26.73% of the area demonstrated a shift from a trend of decrease to a trend of increase. Environmental factors accounted for 70.79% of the variability in WUE. The leaf area index and temperature served as the major driving forces of WUE variation.

The Qinba Mountains are climatically and ecologically recognized as the north- south transitional zone of China. Analysis of its phenology is critical for comprehending the response of vegetation to climatic change. We retrieved the start of spring phenology (SOS) of eight forest communities from the MODIS products and adopted it as an indicator for spring phenology. Trend analysis, partial correlation analysis, and GeoDetector were employed to reveal the spatio-temporal patterns and climatic drivers of SOS. The results indicated that the SOS presented an advance trend from 2001 to 2020, with a mean rate of -0.473 d yr^-1. The SOS of most forests correlated negatively with air temperature (TEMP) and positively with precipitation (PRE), suggesting that rising TEMP and increasing PRE in spring would forward and delay SOS, respectively. The dominant factors influencing the sensitivity of SOS to climatic variables were altitude, forest type, and latitude, while the effects of slope and aspect were relatively minor. The response of SOS to climatic factors varied significantly in space and among forest communities, partly due to the influence of altitude, slope, and aspect.

Emphasis on future environmental changes grows due to climate change, with simulations predicting rising river temperatures globally. For Poland, which has a long history of thermal studies of rivers, such an approach has not been implemented to date. This study used 9 Global Climate Models and tested three machine-learning techniques to predict river temperature changes. Random Forest performed best, with R²=0.88 and lowest error (RMSE: 2.25, MAE:1.72). The range of future water temperature changes by the end of the 21st century was based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. It was determined that by the end of the 21st century, the average temperature will increase by 2.1°C (SSP2-4.5) and 3.7°C (SSP5-8.5). A more detailed analysis, divided by two major basins Vistula and Odra, covered about 90% of Poland’s territory. The average temperature increase, according to scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 for the Odra basin rivers, is 1.6°C and 3.2°C and for the Vistula basin rivers 2.3°C and 3.8°C, respectively. The Vistula basin’s higher warming is due to less groundwater input and continental climate influence. These findings provide a crucial basis for water management to mitigate warming effects in Poland.

Land-use and land-cover change (LUCC) simulations are powerful tools for evaluating and predicting future landscape dynamics amid rapid human‒nature interactions to support decision-making. However, existing models often overlook spatial heterogeneity and temporal dependencies when modeling LUCC at both the macro and microscales. In this paper, we propose a new model, a self-calibrated convolutional neural network-based cellular automata (SC-CNN-CA) model, which integrates macro- and microspatial characteristics to simulate complex interactions among land-use types. The SC-CNN-CA model incorporates a self-calibration module using Gaussian functions to capture macrotrend such as urban sprawl while accounting for microlevel land-use interactions such as neighborhood effects. The results indicated that (1) the neighborhood effect between agricultural land and urban land tended to “increase followed by a decrease.” (2) Urban sprawl in Wuhan was highly compact, with a relatively high intensity of urban expansion at distances between 11.96 km and 24.44 km. (3) Compared with the other CA models tested, the SC-CNN-CA model demonstrated superior performance, achieving an overall accuracy of 84.12% and a figure of merit of 20.20%. This new model can enhance our understanding of historical LUCC trajectories and improve predictions of spatially explicit information for efficient land resource and urban management.

Land consolidation (LC) stands as a globally recognized strategy for rural development. In China, it has evolved towards comprehensive land consolidation (CLC) to support the rural revitalization initiative. However, there are ongoing challenges in understanding CLC’s specific pathway and mechanism, particularly its role in stimulating rural endogenous development. This study aims to investigate the localization process of international experiences, examine the pathway of CLC, and scrutinize its mechanism in rural development from a novel perspective of neo-endogenous development. Field research and semi-structured interviews were conducted in Nanzhanglou village, renowned for its early adoption of CLC practices inspired by German experiences since 1988. Overall, key findings underscore the advantages of CLC in spatial restructuring, industrial development, and human capital enhancement in rural areas. Additionally, international experiences emerge as crucial exogenous forces, primarily by knowledge embedding, which catalyzes rural neo-endogenous development via the “resource-engagement-identity-endogenous” mechanism. Collectively, by introducing a neo-endogenous theoretical framework, this study offers valuable insights into the CLC implementation in China and beyond, and emphasizes the positive impact of knowledge embedding as an exogenous force in promoting rural neo-endogenous development to address existing research gaps. Recommendations for sustainable rural development involve enhancing rural planning practicality, governance capacity, and local leadership, while prioritizing agricultural modernization and increasing investments in education and vocational training to ensure that villagers benefit from industrial development.

The urban heat island (UHI) is an environmental problem of wide concern because it poses a threat to both the human living environment and the sustainable development of cities. Knowledge of the spatiotemporal characteristics and the driving factors of UHI is essential for mitigating their impact. However, current understanding of the UHI in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) is inadequate. Combined with data (e.g., land surface temperature and land use.) acquired from the Google Earth Engine and other sources for the period 2001-2020, this study examined the diurnal and seasonal variabilities, spatial heterogeneities, temporal trends, and drivers of surface UHI intensity (SUHII) in the GBA. The SUHII was calculated based on the urban-rural dichotomy, which has been proven an effective method. The average SUHII was generally 0-2°C, and the SUHII in daytime was generally greater than that at night. The maximum (minimum) SUHII was found in summer (winter); similarly, the largest (smallest) diurnal difference in SUHII was during summer (winter). Generally, the Mann-Kendall trend test and the Sen’s slope estimator revealed a statistically insignificant upward trend in SUHII on all time scales. The influence of driving factors on SUHII was examined using the Geo-Detector model. It was found that the number of continuous impervious pixels had the greatest impact, and that the urban-rural difference in the enhanced vegetation index had the smallest impact, suggesting that anthropogenic heat emissions and urban size are the main influencing factors. Thus, controlling urban expansion and reducing anthropogenic heat generation are effective approaches for alleviating surface UHI.

The metropolitan area is a crucial spatial element in promoting new urbanization in China. It possesses theoretical and empirical value in the determination of the evolutionary patterns and development trends necessary for regional integration and high-quality development. This study focused on Nanjing Metropolitan Area, the first national metropolitan area in China, and established three development scenarios by combining ecological-economic spatial conflict (EESC) zones and national key ecological functional areas. These scenarios simulate the spatial distribution of future land use and land cover change (LUCC) using the development zone planning function of the patch generation land use simulation (PLUS) model. The results show that: (1) Between 2000 and 2020, the most prominent characteristics of land use change were largely the massive expansion of built-up land and the significant decline of farmland, while changes in the area of ecological land were less evident. (2) EESC areas experienced significant changes over the past 20 years, but the overall level of conflict was low. Ecological land was the main land use type in the lowest-conflict area, while built-up land was the main land use type in the highest-conflict area. (3) From 2030 to 2050, further expansion of built-up areas is expected, with continued decrease of farmland. The regulation of these land use changes can be achieved through different development zone plans. The economic development scenario had the largest built-up land area, while the ecological protection scenario had the largest farmland area. This study simulates the spatial pattern changes in the metropolitan area based on spatial conflict patterns and national main functional area planning process, providing a scientific reference for future spatial planning and management.

The clear identification and quantification of the factors affecting groundwater systems is crucial for protecting groundwater resources and ensuring safety in agricultural production. The Lower Yellow River (LYR) is a suspended river that replenishes groundwater continuously due to clear differences in the water head, especially in the Xinxiang section. Since its construction, the Xiaolangdi Reservoir has reversed the LYR’s deposition. To accurately determine the factors influencing the groundwater level (GWL), the study area was divided into five subzones based on hydrogeology. A dynamic factor model (DFM), variational mode decomposition (VMD), and a multiple linear regression model were used to identify and quantify the factors influencing the GWL. The impact of the suspended river on the groundwater before and after the construction of the Xiaolangdi Reservoir was examined. The results show that: (1) The rate of decrease in the GWL was 8.53 × 10^-4 m/month, and the rate of decrease in the Yellow River water level (RWL) was 4.63 × 10^-4 m/month. (2) Mountain front recharge (MFR) (scale = 3 months) and precipitation (scale = 9 months) were the dominant factors in subzones I and II, accounting for more than 40% of the fluctuation in the GWL. Subzone III was dominated by exploitation (scale = 7 months) and precipitation (scale = 12 months), accounting for 28.43%, and 23.44% of changes in the GWL, respectively. In subzone IV, agricultural irrigation (scale = 12 months) was the major factor, accounting for 32.47% of GWL changes, while in subzone V, the RWL (scale = 12 months) accounted for 52.52% of these changes. (3) The Xiaolangdi Reservoir has increased the lateral seepage of the suspended river and altered the inter-annual distribution. The results of this study can provide a valuable reference for controlling groundwater overexploitation and ensuring water supply security.

It is essential to map the cropping patterns when investigating the mechanisms and impacts of climate change. However, the long-term evolution of cropping patterns remains poorly understood. This study collected hundreds of records of cropping intensity and crop combinations from local gazetteers and other relevant articles for the North China Plain (NCP) over the past 300 years. Then, we analyzed the evolutionary characteristics and drivers in terms of climate change and advances in agricultural technology. From the Qing Dynasty to the 1950s, one harvest per year (1H1Y) was the dominant pattern in the northern NCP, and three harvests in two years (3H2Y) was the dominant pattern in Henan and Shandong provinces. The 1H1Y crops were cereals and sorghum. The 3H2Y crop combinations were spring maize, winter wheat, and beans. In the 1960s and 1970s, the cropping intensity in much of the NCP was two harvests per year (2H1Y) or a mix of the 2H1Y and 3H2Y patterns. In the 1980s, the cropping intensity in the NCP was dominated by 2H1Y. Since the 1960s, the 2H1Y crop compositions have been winter wheat−summer maize in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei provinces, while winter wheat−rice dominated north of the Huaihe River. The 3H2Y summer crop changed from beans to maize/cereals over time. Climate warming was not the dominant factor driving the evolution of cropping intensity in the NCP. Advances in agricultural production conditions and reforms in production relations have promoted the rapid development of multiple cropping since the 1950s.

China is the world’s largest carbon dioxide (CO₂) emitter and a major trading country. Both anthropogenic and natural factors play a critical role in its carbon budget. However, previous studies mostly focus on evaluating anthropogenic emissions or the natural carbon cycle separately, and few included trade-related (import and export) CO₂ emissions and its contribution on global warming. Using the CarbonTracker CT2019 assimilation dataset and China trade emissions from the Global Carbon Project, we found that the change trend of global CO₂ flux had obvious spatial heterogeneity, which is mainly affected by anthropogenic CO₂ flux. From 2000 to 2018, carbon emissions from fossil fuels in the world and in China all showed an obvious increasing trend, but the magnitude of the increase tended to slow down. In 2018, the radiative forcing (RF) caused by China’s import and export trade was ‒0.0038 W m^‒2, and the RF caused by natural carbon budget was ‒0.0027 W m^‒2, offsetting 1.54% and 1.13% of the RF caused by fossil fuels that year, respectively. From 2000 to 2018, the contribution of China’s carbon emission from fossil fuels to global RF was 11.32%. Considering China’s import and export trade, the contribution of anthropogenic CO₂ emission to global RF decreased to 9.50%. Furthermore, taking into account the offset of carbon sink from China’s terrestrial ecosystems, the net contribution of China to global RF decreased to 7.63%. This study demonstrates that China’s terrestrial ecosystem and import and export trade are all mitigating China’s impact on global anthropogenic warming, and also confirms that during the research process on climate change, comprehensively considering the carbon budget from anthropogenic and natural carbon budgets is necessary to systematically understand the impacts of regional or national carbon budgets on global warming.

In response to issues such as incomplete segmentation and the presence of breakpoints encountered in extracting debris-flow fans using semantic segmentation models, this paper proposes a local feature and spatial attention mechanism to achieve precise segmentation of debris-flow fans. Firstly, leveraging the spatial inhibition mechanism from neuroscience theory as a foundation, an energy function for the local feature and spatial attention mechanism is formulated. Subsequently, by employing optimization theory, a closed-form solution for the energy function is derived, which ensures the lightweight nature of the proposed attention mechanism algorithm. Finally, the performance of this algorithm is compared with other mainstream attention mechanism algorithms embedded in semantic segmentation models through comparative experiments. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms both the original models and mainstream attention mechanisms across various classic models, effectively enhancing the performance of network models in debris-flow fan segmentation tasks.

Understanding the nonlinear relationship between hydrological response and key factors and the cause behind this relationship is vital for water resource management and earth system model. In this study, we undertook several steps to explore the relationship. Initially, we partitioned runoff response change (RRC) into multiple components associated with climate and catchment properties, and examined the spatial patterns and smoothness indicated by the Moran’s Index of RRC across the contiguous United States (CONUS). Subsequently, we employed a machine learning model to predict RRC using catchment attribute predictors encompassing climate, topography, hydrology, soil, land use/cover, and geology. Additionally, we identified the primary factors influencing RRC and quantified how these key factors control RRC by employing the accumulated local effect, which allows for the representation of not only dominant but also secondary effects. Finally, we explored the relationship between ecoregion patterns, climate gradients, and the distribution of RRC across CONUS. Our findings indicate that: (1) RRC demonstrating significant connections between catchments tends to be well predicted by catchment attributes in space; (2) climate, hydrology, and topography emerge as the top three key attributes nonlinearly influencing the RRC patterns, with their second-order effects determining the heterogeneous patterns of RRC; and (3) local Moran’s I signifies a collaborative relationship between the patterns of RRC and their spatial smoothness, climate space, and ecoregions.

For the past several decades, climate change has been driving vegetation dynamics in arid regions worldwide. This study investigates vegetation dynamics and their links to climate from 1990 to 2020 in Xinjiang, China, using data from 30-m resolution land use and cover change, remote sensing, and climate reanalysis. Our approach encompasses a range of analytical techniques, including transfer matrix analysis, modeling, correlation, regression, and trend analysis. During the study period, there were major vegetation conversions from grassland to forestland in the mountains, and from cropland to grassland in the plains. Climate change emerged as an important trigger of these changes, as evidenced by the increase in net primary productivity in most vegetation types, except for cropland-grassland and grassland-cropland conversions. Precipitation and soil moisture were the most influential climatic factors, contributing 15.1% and 15.2%, respectively, to natural vegetation changes. The study also found that evapotranspiration serves as a key mechanism for moisture dissipation in the hydrological cycle of vegetation dynamics. The interplay between precipitation, soil moisture, and evapotranspiration is a critical pattern of climatic influence that shapes vegetation dynamics across zones of intersection, increase, decrease, and change. These insights are invaluable for informing vegetation conservation and development strategies in Xinjiang and other similar environments facing climate-driven ecological transitions.

Most existing cellular automata (CA) models impose strict requirements on the number and spatial distribution of samples. This makes it a challenge to capture spatial heterogeneity in urban dynamics and meet the modeling needs of large and complex geographic areas. This paper presents a CA model based on geographically optimal similarity (GOS) transition rules and similarly sized neighborhoods (SSN). By comparing the similarity in geographical configuration between samples and predicted points, the model enables a comprehensive characterization of the driving mechanism behind urban expansion and its self-organizing scope. This helps to mitigate the impact of sample selection and assumptions about spatial stationarity on simulation results. The performance of GOS-SSN-CA simulation was tested by taking the urban expansion in the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration in China as an example. The results show that GOS can derive more accurate and reliable urban transition rules with fewer samples, thereby significantly reducing spatial prediction errors compared with logistic regression. Moreover, SSN selects different neighborhood sizes to represent the difference between the local self-organizing range and surrounding cells, thus further improving the simulation accuracy and restricting urban expansion morphology. Overall, GOS-SSN-CA effectively characterizes the geographical similarity of urban expansion, improves simulation accuracy while constraining the urban expansion form, and enhances the practical application value of CA.

Floodplain lakes are important water storage areas in lowland regions that often undergo geomorphologic evolution, and timely topographic data are generally unavailable. In this study, to assess the impacts of lakebed deformation on hydraulic performance in Dongting Lake, a set of semi-empirical methods was proposed to establish performance graphs (PGs) using only hydrological data. These methods were used to evaluate the changes in water level, storage capacity, and flood detention ability in Dongting Lake caused by topographic adjustment after the Three Gorges Reservoir impoundment. These methods showed that PGs can effectively simulate the water level and outflow processes of Dongting Lake with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients (NSEs) above 0.9. A comparison of the estimated water level and discharge using PGs from different periods suggested that bed erosion in Dongting Lake caused water level decreases of 0.18 m and 0.32 m during the flood and dry seasons, respectively. Because the magnitude of erosion at high elevations in the lake is small, the impacts of bed adjustment on the storage capacity and flood detention ability are not currently significant. This study showed that the hydraulic performance of a floodplain lake can be evaluated independently of topographic data under the condition of no reverse flows or negative water surface slopes.