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  • Research Articles
    HU Yunfeng, LIU Jiyuan, Batunacun, ZHEN Lin
    . 2014, 24(6): 1047-1059. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-014-1137-8

    In isotope 137Cs tracing studies, it is a premise to determine suitable 137Cs reference inventory (CRI) plots and the CRI values. Owing to the heterogeneous spatial distribution of 137Cs deposition in the ground and diverse, or even irregular, operations in sampling and testing procedures, CRI determination is usually faced with many difficulties and uncertainties. In addition, more difficulties occur in an investigation of a large-scale region because of time constraints and measurement cost limitations. In this study, traditional CRI acquiring methods were summarized first, and then a new complex scheme was established, involving seven core steps and coupling the model estimate and sample measurement. The above CRI determination methodology was implemented in the central-eastern Inner Mongolia Plateau. The case study results showed that the CRI in the dark chestnut soil sub-region, located in the east and south of Xing'an City, exhibited 2447 Bq·m-2; the CRI in the aeolian sandy soil sub-region, positioned in the south central Tongliao City and central Chifeng City, showed 2430 Bq·m-2; the CRI in the sandy chernozem soil sub-region, situated in the northwestern Chifeng City, presented 2384 Bq·m-2; and the CRI in the chestnut soil sub-region, in the southern Xilin Gol City, was 2368 Bq·m-2. The newly proposed CRI determination scheme was proved effective, and the determined CRI plots and CRI values were convincing. The methodology offered a framework for 137Cs tracing studies in large-scale regions or long-distance transects.

  • Research Articles
    YANG Yanzhao, FENG Zhiming, WANG Lu, YOU Zhen
    CSCD(2)

    The relationship between population distribution and resources, environment and social-economic development has a significant influence on the human development. This paper set up a set of index system and model methods for the assessment of the coordination between population and resources, environment and social-economic development, and it quantitatively evaluated this coordination at the provincial scale in 2000 and 2010 respectively. Based on this set of index system, the suitability degree and the spatial-temporal pattern of population distribution at the provincial scale were carefully characterized. The restriction of population distribution at the provincial scale was graded and classified, and the coordinated development strategy of population, resources, environment and social economy was finally put forward. The results showed that: (1) The environmental suitability of population distribution at the provincial scale was generally high in China, which tended to be stable from 2000 to 2010. (2) The restriction of water and land resources at the provincial scale was generally strong in China, but it tended to be weak from 2000 to 2010. (3) The coordination degree between the social-economic development and population distribution at the provincial scale was mostly at a middle level, which was in the positive upward path from 2000 to 2010. (4) The suitability of population distribution at the provincial scale was mostly at a middle level, all of which was rising from 2000 to 2010. (5) The coordination degree between population distribution and resources, environment and social-economic development at the provincial scale was divided into four grades, including basic coordination, relative coordination, awaited coordination and urgent-needed coordination. (6) The basic ways to promote the coordinated development of population, resources and environment in different regions in China can be summarized as: implementing the strategy of population agglomeration and evacuation, guiding the orderly flow of population, optimizing the spatial distribution of population and drawing up the spatial planning of population development.

  • Research Articles
    LI Yang, LIU Hui, TANG Qing, LU Dadao, XIAO Ningchuan

    Migration plays an increasing role in China's economy since mobility rose and economic restructuring has proceeded during the last three decades. Given the background of most studies focusing on migration in a particular period, there is a critical need to analyze the spatial-temporal patterns of migration. Using bicomponent trend mapping technique and interprovincial migration data during the periods 1985-1990, 1990-1995, 1995-2000, 2000-2005, and 2005-2010 we analyze net-, in-, out-migration intensity, and their changes over time in this study. Strong spatial variations in migration intensity were found in China's interprovincial migration, and substantial increase in migration intensity was also detected in eastern China during 1985-2010. Eight key destinations are mostly located within the three rapidly growing economic zones of eastern China (Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region), and they are classified into three types: mature, emerging, and fluctuant origins, while most key origins are relatively undeveloped central and western provinces, which are exactly in accordance with China's economic development patterns. The results of bicomponent trend mapping indicate that, in a sense, the migration in the south was more active than the north over the last three decades. The result shows the new changing features of spatial-temporal patterns of China's interprovincial migration that Fan and Chen did not find out in their research. A series of social-economic changes including rural transformation, balanced regional development, and labor market changes should be paid more attention to explore China's future interprovincial migration.

  • Research Articles
    ZHANG Zhao, WANG Pin, CHEN Yi, ZHANG Shuai, TAO Fulu, LIU Xiaofei

    Agro-meteorological disasters (AMD) have become more frequent with climate warming. In this study, the temporal and spatial changes in the occurrence frequency of major meteorological disasters on wheat production were firstly explored by analyzing the observed records at national agro-meteorological stations (AMS) of China from 1991 to 2009. Furthermore, impact of climate change on AMD was discussed by comparing the warmer decade (2000-2009) with another decade (1991-2000). It was found that drought was the most frequent disaster during the last two decades, with a highest proportion of 79%. And the frequency of AMD increased significantly with climate change. Specifically, the main disasters occurred more frequently in the reproductive period than in the vegetative period. Besides, the spatial changes in the AMD frequency were characterized by region-specific. For example, the wheat cultivation areas located on the Loess Plateau and the middle-lower reaches of the Yellow River suffered mainly from drought. All these results were strongly linked to climate change in China. Therefore, sound adaptation options should be taken based on the latest changes of AMD under global warming to reduce agricultural damages.

  • Research Articles
    TAN Jieyang, YANG Peng, LIU Zhenhuan, WU Wenbin, ZHANG Li, LI Zhipeng, YOU Liangzhi, TANG Huajun, LI Zhengguo
    Baidu(29) CSCD(4)

    Understanding crop patterns and their changes on regional scale is a critical requirement for projecting agro-ecosystem dynamics. However, tools and methods for mapping the distribution of crop area and yield are still lacking. Based on the cross-entropy theory, a spatial production allocation model (SPAM) has been developed for presenting spatio-temporal dynamics of maize cropping system in Northeast China during 1980-2010. The simulated results indicated that (1) maize sown area expanded northwards to 48°N before 2000, after that the increased sown area mainly occurred in the central and southern parts of Northeast China. Meanwhile, maize also expanded eastwards to 127°E and lower elevation (less than 100 m) as well as higher elevation (mainly distributed between 200 m and 350 m); (2) maize yield has been greatly promoted for most planted area of Northeast China, especially in the planted zone between 42°N and 48°N, while the yield increase was relatively homogeneous without obvious longitudinal variations for whole region; (3) maize planting density increased gradually to a moderately high level over the investigated period, which reflected the trend of aggregation of maize cultivation driven by market demand.

  • Research Articles
    LIU Fenggui, MAO Xufeng, ZHANG Yili, CHEN Qiong, LIU Pei, ZHAO Zhilong
    CSCD(2)

    Snow disaster is one of the top ten natural disasters worldwide, and the most severe natural disaster to affect the pastoral areas of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Based on the hazard harmfulness data collected from historical records and data collected from entities affected by this hazard in 2010, a comprehensive analysis of the 18 indexes of snow disaster on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau was conducted, encompassing the hazard harmfulness, the amount of physical exposure the hazard-bearing entities face, the sensitivity to the hazard, and the capacity to respond to the disaster. The analysis indicates that: (1) areas at high-risk of snow disaster on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are located in certain areas of the counties of Yecheng and Pishan in the Xinjiang region; (2) areas at medium-risk of snow disaster are found between the Gangdise Mountains and the Himalayas in the central-western part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and the southeastern part of the southern Qinghai Plateau; (3) the risk of snow disaster is generally low throughout the large area to the south of 30°N and the region on the border of the eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Overall, the risk of snow disaster in high-altitude areas of the central Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is higher than that at the edge of the plateau.

  • Research Articles
    ZHANG Wenchao, LI Chunhai, LU Huayu, TIAN Xianhua, ZHANG Hongyan, LEI Fang, TANG Lingyu
    CSCD(2)

    The catchment of South Luohe River in Central China is an important region for investigating modern pollen-environment relationship, because it is located in the transitional zone between south and north China, an environment which is sensitive to climate changes. In this study, 40 surface samples under ten vegetation types were collected to reveal the relationship between pollen assemblages and vegetation. The results show that the surface pollen assemblages reflect the vegetation quite well. In forest topsoils, the average of arboreal pollen content is greater than 40%, and the Selaginella sinensis spore is high. As to sparse forest grassland and shrub community, the average arboreal pollen is 13.2% and 16.6% respectively, and the shrub pollen is relatively higher than that of grassland samples. The grassland and farmland are characterized by low percentage of tree and shrub pollen (<10% and <1%), and high percentage of herbs (>80%). Pinus, Quercus and some other arboreal pollen can indicate the regional vegetation because of their dispersal ability. Quercus pollen is under-representative and so is Pinus. Artemisia pollen is significantly over-represented, has poor correlation with the plant coverage, and may reflect human disturbance. Gramineae can indicate plant quite well, but with low representation. High content of Chenopodiaceae probably suggests human impact. Predominant Selaginella sinensis can be used as an indicator of forest environment. Cluster analysis and principal components analysis of pollen assemblages can distinguish forest and non-forest vegetation well. The former method is better at separating pine and mixed forests, while the latter is more stable and could better differentiate farmland and other non-forest area. The first axis of PCA mainly reflects the humidity.

  • Research Articles
    ZHA Xiaochun, HUANG Chunchang, PANG Jiangli, ZHOU Yali

    Palaeoflood hydrology study is a leading subject in global change study. Through field investigation in the upper reaches of Hanjiang River, palaeoflood slackwater deposits (SWD) were found in the bedrock gorges of the Yunxi reach. The results of field observation, laboratory analysis including particle-size distribution and magnetic susceptibility, and comparison with modern flood deposits, the SWD were identified as the most typical Holocene palaeoflood deposits of the Hanjiang River. By using stratigraphic correlation and OSL dating method, the palaeoflood event was dated to be 3200-2800 a BP at the turn from the middle to late Holocene. According to the palaeoflood peak stage and hydraulic parameters, the peak discharges of the palaeoflood were reconstructed as 48,830-51,710 m3/s by using the slope-area method. At same time, the flood peak discharges of 1983, 2005 and 2010 severe floods were reconstructed with the same method and hydraulic parameters in the same cross section. The error between the reconstructed and gauged discharges was 1.99%-4.21%. This showed that the reconstructed palaeoflood peak discharges were reliable. The flood peak discharge-frequency relationship at 10,000-year time scale was established by a combination of the gauged flood, historical flood and palaeoflood hydrological data. These results are very important for hydraulic engineering and flood mitigation on the Hanjiang River.

  • Research Articles
    Ali Hamdi ABU SALIM
    CSCD(1)

    This study addresses the morphometric variables that determine the sediment yield in Wadi Al-Arja through the analysis of the impact of different morphometric characteristics along the course of the valley on its sediment yield, as well as the analysis of spatial and formal dimensions and morphologies of the basin and its relationship to the sediment yield. The study also addresses the size of variation in the volume of sediment yield of the river tributaries that make up the water network of the valley under the differences of its morphometric and hydrological characteristics. The study found several results, most notably: The classification of Wadi Al-Arja basin according to the hypsometric integral value (72.1%) within an uneven topography, which increases the force of the erosive activity and the size of the sediment yield if the basin was exposed to moist climatic periods. The study also showed the presence of convergence in the intra-spaces between the river tributaries in the water network. This increases the volume of water flows when these tributaries meet with each other and thus increasing their erosive ability and sediment yield.The study also showed the presence of marked variation in the sediment yield of the river tributaries depending on the differences in its morphometric characteristics. The results of the step-wise regression analysis confirmed the importance of the morphometric and hydrological variables, and plant coverage in interpreting the variation in the size of the sediment yield of the river tributaries of different stream order in Wadi Al-Arja basin, where these variables interpreted 43% of the total variation, with statistical significance less than 0.05.

  • Research Articles
    LIU Qing, HU Xiaojuan, JIANG Jiangluan, ZHANG Junyi, WU Zhihui, YANG Yufeng
    CSCD(1)

    The water quality in the surface microlayer (SML) and subsurface water (SSW) in the Guangzhou segment of Pearl River, a eutrophic urban river section in China, were analyzed. The spatial and temporal dynamics of nutrient concentrations, heavy metals and bacteria were examined from two sampling sites in monthly samples throughout 2010. The mean concentrations of total nitrogen, ammonia, nitrate and nitrite were higher than 7.0 mg/L, 3.1 mg/L, 1.1 mg/L and 0.3 mg/L, while total phosphorus and orthophosphate were 0.5 mg/L and 0.1 mg/L, respectively. These results indicated that the water quality was rich in minerals and eutrophic. The mean concentrations of Mn and Fe were higher than 0.013 mg/L; and Ni, Cr and Pb were higher than 0.001 mg/L. The mean concentrations were in the order of Mn >Fe > Ni > Pb > Cr. The concentrations of heavy metals in the Guangzhou segment were lower than the limit of the surface water quality standards in China and the World Health Organization (WHO), but higher than the median values in the world’s freshwater. The density of bacteria ranged from 3.30×105 to 5.23×106 cells/mL, and the amount of cultivable heterotrophic bacteria ranged from 1.30×103 to 1.89×106 cfu/mL. Fecal coliform levels were beyond the V class of China water quality standard. The SML was enriched in nutrients, heavy metals and bacteria, with the maximum enrichment factor of 3.84 for nutrients, 8.00 for heavy metals, and 3.04 for bacteria, suggesting that the water quality of the SML of the Guangzhou segment of the Pearl River was more serious than in the SSW.

  • Research Articles
    FAN Fei, DU Debin, WANG Xinzhu

    According to the connotation and structure of science and technology resources and some relevant data of more than 286 cities at prefecture level and above during 2001-2010, using modified method—Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), science and technology (S&T) resource allocation efficiency of different cities in different periods has been figured out, which, uncovers the distributional difference and change law of S&T resource allocation efficiency from the time-space dimension. Based on that, this paper has analyzed and discussed the spatial distribution pattern and evolution trend of S&T resource allocation efficiency in different cities by virtue of the Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA). It turned out that: (1) the average of S&T resource allocation efficiency in cities at prefecture level and above has always stayed at low levels, moreover, with repeated fluctuations between high and low, which shows a decreasing trend year by year. Besides, the gap between the East and the West is widening. (2) The asymmetrical distribution of S&T resource allocation efficiency presents a spatial pattern of successively decreasing from Eastern China, Central China to Western China. The cities whose S&T resource allocation efficiency are at higher level and high level take on a cluster distribution, which fits well with the 23 forming urban agglomerations in China. (3) The coupling degree between S&T resource allocation efficiency and economic environment assumes a certain positive correlation, but not completely the same. The differentiation of S&T resource allocation efficiency is common in regional development, whose existence and evolution are directly or indirectly influenced by and regarded as the reflection of many elements, such as geographical location, the natural endowment and environment of S&T resources and so on. (4) In the perspective of the evolution of spatial structure, S&T resource allocation efficiency of the cities at prefecture level and above shows a notable spatial autocorrelation, which in every period presents a positive correlation. The spatial distribution of S&T resource allocation efficiency in neighboring cities seems to be similar in group, which tends to escalate stepwise. Meanwhile, the whole differentiation of geographical space has a diminishing tendency. (5) Viewed from LISA agglomeration map of S&T resource allocation efficiency in different periods, four agglomeration types have changed differently in spatial location and the range of spatial agglomeration. And the continuity of S&T resource allocation efficiency in geographical space is gradually increasing.

  • Research Articles
    YANG Yu, LIU Yi
    Baidu(35) CSCD(7)

    This paper examines the spatial pattern of land and water resources as well as urbanization and their interactions in the Tarim River Basin, Xinjiang, China. In order to do so, we extract the data associated with efficiency of land and water resources and urbanization for the years of 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2008. Specifically the paper investigates the extent to which agglomeration of population and economic activities varies geographically and interplays with spatial pattern of resources efficiency through computation of Global Moran's I index, Getis-Ord Gi* index and a coordinated development model. The method used provides clear evidence that urbanization, land and water resources efficiency have shown uneven spatial pattern due to oasis distribution, climate, and initial phase of urban development. Some conclusions can be drawn as follows. (1) Agglomeration and dispersion of urbanization are not consistent with those of land and water resources efficiency. (2) Evolution of the hot and cold spots of urbanization, and land and water resources efficiency, in different trajectories, indicate that there are no significant interactions between them. (3) The evidence that numbers of hot and cold spots of the three factors present varying structures reveals the dominance of unequal urban development in the study area. (4) Significant differences are also found between sub-river basins in terms of the three factors, which is a reflection of the complex physical geography of the area. (5) The degree of coordinated development of cities in the Tarim River Basin is generally low in part as a reflection of difference in spatial patterns of the three factors. It is also shown that the pattern of the degree of coordinated development is relatively stable compared with evolution of hot and cold spots of the three factors.

  • Research Articles
    LI Kaifeng, ZHU Cheng, JIANG Fengqing, LI Bing, WANG Xinhao, CAO Bo, ZHAO Xiaofan

    This study presents an analysis of the spatial-temporal distribution of 230 archaeological sites in Guizhou Province, Southwest China for three selected time periods from the Paleolithic Age to the Shang-Zhou Dynasties. The relationship between archaeological sites distribution and environmental changes is also discussed based on paleo-environmental proxies of δ18O and δ13C recorded in stalagmites from Southwest China. The results show that: in the Paleolithic Age (260-10 ka BP), archaeological sites were concentrated in the central, northwestern and southwestern parts of Guizhou, where the high-altitudinal karst landforms with many natural caves suitable for human habitation are developed. In the Neolithic Age (10-3.6 ka BP), most of human settlements were concentrated in the central, northwestern and southwestern parts, while, a fewer sites were found on river terraces in the southern and eastern parts, and the intermontane basins in the central and western Guizhou. During the Shang-Zhou Dynasties (3.6-2.2 ka BP), the sites were mainly distributed in the intermontane basins and on river terraces, which were suitable for primitive aerial farming. The analysis of paleo-environmental proxies of δ18O and δ13C since 260 ka BP suggested that climate fluctuations had little impact on human settlements in this study area. The distinct physical environment, especially the spatial patterns of karst landforms and arable land played an important role in the archaeological sites distribution of Guizhou.

  • Research Articles
    LIU Jiyuan, KUANG Wenhui, ZHANG Zengxiang, XU Xinliang, QIN Yuanwei, NING Jia, ZHOU Wancun, ZHANG Shuwen, LI Rendong, YAN Changzhen, WU Shixin, SHI Xuezheng, JIANG Nan, YU Dongsheng, PAN Xianzhang, CHI Wenfeng

    Land-use/land-cover changes (LUCCs) have links to both human and nature interactions. China's Land-Use/cover Datasets (CLUDs) were updated regularly at 5-year intervals from the late 1980s to 2010,with standard procedures based on Landsat TM\ETM+ images. A land-use dynamic regionalization method was proposed to analyze major land-use conversions. The spatiotemporal characteristics,differences,and causes of land-use changes at a national scale were then examined. The main findings are summarized as follows. Land-use changes (LUCs) across China indicated a significant variation in spatial and temporal characteristics in the last 20 years (1990-2010). The area of cropland change decreased in the south and increased in the north,but the total area remained almost unchanged. The reclaimed cropland was shifted from the northeast to the northwest. The built-up lands expanded rapidly,were mainly distributed in the east,and gradually spread out to central and western China. Woodland decreased first,and then increased,but desert area was the opposite. Grassland continued decreasing. Different spatial patterns of LUC in China were found between the late 20th century and the early 21st century. The original 13 LUC zones were replaced by 15 units with changes of boundaries in some zones. The main spatial characteristics of these changes included (1) an accelerated expansion of built-up land in the Huang-Huai-Hai region,the southeastern coastal areas,the midstream area of the Yangtze River,and the Sichuan Basin;(2) shifted land reclamation in the north from northeast China and eastern Inner Mongolia to the oasis agricultural areas in northwest China;(3) continuous transformation from rain-fed farmlands in northeast China to paddy fields;and (4) effectiveness of the "Grain for Green" project in the southern agricultural-pastoral ecotones of Inner Mongolia,the Loess Plateau,and southwestern mountainous areas. In the last two decades,although climate change in the north affected the change in cropland,policy regulation and economic driving forces were still the primary causes of LUC across China. During the first decade of the 21st century,the anthropogenic factors that drove variations in land-use patterns have shifted the emphasis from one-way land development to both development and conservation.The "dynamic regionalization method" was used to analyze changes in the spatial patterns of zoning boundaries,the internal characteristics of zones,and the growth and decrease of units. The results revealed "the pattern of the change process," namely the process of LUC and regional differences in characteristics at different stages. The growth and decrease of zones during this dynamic LUC zoning,variations in unit boundaries,and the characteristics of change intensities between the former and latter decades were examined. The patterns of alternative transformation between the "pattern" and "process" of land use and the causes for changes in different types and different regions of land use were explored.

  • Research Articles
    LONG Hualou

    The implementation of new type industrialization and urbanization and agricultural modernization strategies lacks of a major hand grip and spatial supporting platform,due to long-term existed "dual-track" structure of rural-urban development in China as well as unstable rural development institution and mechanism. It is necessary to restructure rural production,living and ecological space by carrying out land consolidation,so as to establish a new platform for building new countryside and realizing urban-rural integration development in China. This paper develops the concept and connotation of rural spatial restructuring. Basing on the effects analysis of industrialization and urbanization on rural production,living and ecological space,the mechanism of pushing forward rural spatial restructuring by carrying out land consolidation is probed. A conceptualization of the models of rural production,living and ecological spatial restructuring is analyzed combining with agricultural land consolidation,hollowed villages consolidation and industrial and mining land consolidation. Finally,the author argues that a "bottom-up" restructuring strategy accompanied by a few "top-down" elements is helpful for smoothly pushing forward rural spatial restructuring in China. In addition,the optimization and restructuring of rural production,living and ecological space will rely on the innovations of regional engineering technology,policy and mechanism,and mode of rural land consolidation,and more attentions should be paid to rural space,the foundation base and platform for realizing urban-rural integration development.

  • Research Articles
    ZHAO Fang, ZHANG Baiping, PANG Yu, YAO Yonghui
    CSCD(6)

    Alpine timberline,as the "ecological transition zone," has long attracted the attention of scientists in many fields,especially in recent years. Many unitary and dibasic fitting models have been developed to explore the relationship between timberline elevation and latitude or temperature. However,these models are usually on regional scale and could not be applied to other regions;on the other hand,hemispherical-scale and continental-scale models are usually based on about 100 timberline data and are necessarily low in precision. The present article collects 516 data sites of timberline,and takes latitude,continentality and mass elevation effect (MEE) as independent variables and timberline elevation as dependent variable to develop a ternary linear regression model. Continentality is calculated using the meteorological data released by WorldClim and mountain base elevation (as a proxy of mass elevation effect) is extracted on the basis of SRTM 90-meter resolution elevation data. The results show that the coefficient of determination (R2) of the linear model is as high as 0.904,and that the contribution rate of latitude,continentality and MEE to timberline elevation is 45.02% (p=0.000),6.04% (p=0.000) and 48.94% (p=0.000),respectively. This means that MEE is simply the primary factor contributing to the elevation distribution of timberline on the continental and hemispherical scales. The contribution rate of MEE to timberline altitude differs in different regions,e.g.,50.49% (p=0.000) in North America,48.73% (p=0.000) in the eastern Eurasia,and 43.6% (p=0.000) in the western Eurasia,but it is usually very high.

  • Research Articles
    ZHAO Dongsheng, WU Shaohong
    CSCD(5)

    Assessment of vulnerability for natural ecosystem to climate change is a hot topic in climate change and ecology,and will support adapting and mitigating climate change. In this study,LPJ model modified according to features of China's natural ecosystems was employed to simulate ecosystem dynamics under A2,B2 and A1B scenarios. Vulnerability of natural ecosystem to climate change was assessed according to the vulnerability assessment model. Based on eco-geographical regions,vulnerability of natural ecosystem to climate change was analyzed. Results suggest that vulnerability for China's natural ecosystems would strengthen in the east and weaken in the west,but the pattern of ecosystem vulnerability would not be altered by climate change,which rises from southeast to northeast gradually. Increase in ecosystem vulnerable degree would mainly concentrate in temperate humid/sub-humid region and warm temperate humid/sub-humid region. Decrease in ecosystem vulnerable degree may emerge in northwestern arid region and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region. In the near-term scale,natural ecosystem in China would be slightly affected by climate change. However,in mid-term and long-term scales,there would be severely adverse effect,particularly in the east with better water and thermal condition.

  • Research Articles
    ZHAO Mingwei, YUE Tianxiang, ZHAO Na, SUN Xiaofang, ZHANG Xingying
    CSCD(7)

    It is very important in accurately estimating the forests' carbon stock and spatial distribution in the regional scale because they possess a great rate in the carbon stock of the terrestrial ecosystem. Yet the current estimation of forest carbon stock in the regional scale mainly depends on the forest inventory data,and the whole process consumes too much labor,money and time. And meanwhile it has many negative influences on the forest carbon storage updating. In order to figure out these problems,this paper,based on High Accuracy Surface Modeling (HASM),proposes a forest vegetation carbon storage simulation method. This new method employs the output of LPJ-GUESS model as initial values of HASM and uses the inventory data as sample points of HASM to simulate the distribution of forest carbon storage in China. This study also adopts the seventh forest resources statistics of China as the data source to generate sample points,and it also works as the simulation accuracy test. The HASM simulation shows that the total forest carbon storage of China is 9.2405 Pg,while the calculated value based on forest resources statistics are 7.8115 Pg. The forest resources statistics is taken based on a forest canopy closure,and the result of HASM is much more suitable to the real forest carbon storage. The simulation result also indicates that the southwestern mountain region and the northeastern forests are the important forest carbon reservoirs in China,and they account for 39.82% and 20.46% of the country's total forest vegetation carbon stock respectively. Compared with the former value (1975-1995),it manifests that the carbon storage of the two regions do increase clearly. The results of this research show that the large-scale reforestation in the last decades in China attains a significant carbon sink.

  • Research Articles
    ZHANG Yili, QI Wei, ZHOU Caiping, DING Mingjun, LIU Linshan, GAO Jungang, BAI Wanqi, WANG Zhaofeng, ZHENG Du
    CSCD(14)

    Based on the GIMMS AVHRR NDVI data (8 km spatial resolution) for 1982-2000,the SPOT VEGETATION NDVI data (1 km spatial resolution) for 1998-2009,and observational plant biomass data,the CASA model was used to model changes in alpine grassland net primary production (NPP) on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). This study will help to evaluate the health conditions of the alpine grassland ecosystem,and is of great importance to the promotion of sustainable development of plateau pasture and to the understanding of the function of the national ecological security shelter on the TP. The spatio-temporal characteristics of NPP change were investigated using spatial statistical analysis,separately on the basis of physico-geographical factors (natural zone,altitude,latitude and longitude),river basin,and county-level administrative area. Data processing was carried out using an ENVI 4.8 platform,while an ArcGIS 9.3 and ANUSPLIN platform was used to conduct the spatial analysis and mapping. The primary results are as follows:(1) The NPP of alpine grassland on the TP gradually decreases from the southeast to the northwest,which corresponds to gradients in precipitation and temperature. From 1982 to 2009,the average annual total NPP in the TP alpine grassland was 177.2×1012 gC yr-1(yr represents year),while the average annual NPP was 120.8 gC m-2 yr-1. (2) The annual NPP in alpine grassland on the TP fluctuates from year to year but shows an overall positive trend ranging from 114.7 gC m-2 yr-1 in 1982 to 129.9 gC m-2 yr-1 in 2009,with an overall increase of 13.3%;32.56% of the total alpine grassland on the TP showed a significant increase in NPP,while only 5.55% showed a significant decrease over this 28-year period. (3) Spatio-temporal characteristics are an important control on annual NPP in alpine grassland:a) NPP increased in most of the natural zones on the TP,only showing a slight decrease in the Ngari montane desert-steppe and desert zone. The positive trend in NPP in the high-cold shrub-meadow zone,high-cold meadow steppe zone and high-cold steppe zone is more significant than that of the high-cold desert zone;b) with increasing altitude,the percentage area with a positive trend in annual NPP follows a trend of "increasing-stable-decreasing",while the percentage area with a negative trend in annual NPP follows a trend of "decreasing-stable-increasing",with increasing altitude;c) the variation in annual NPP with latitude and longitude co-varies with the vegetation distribution;d) the variation in annual NPP within the major river basins has a generally positive trend,of which the growth in NPP in the Yellow River Basin is most significant. Results show that,based on changes in NPP trends,vegetation coverage and phonological phenomenon with time,NPP has been declining in certain places successively,while the overall health of the alpine grassland on the TP is improving.

  • Research Articles
    LIU Xianfeng, ZHANG Jinshui, ZHU Xiufang, PAN Yaozhong, LIU Yanxu, ZHANG Donghai, LIN Zhihui

    The Three-River Headwaters Region (TRHR),which is the source area of the Yangtze River,Yellow River,and Lancang River,is of key importance to the ecological security of China. Because of climate changes and human activities,ecological degradation occurred in this region. Therefore,"The nature reserve of Three-River Source Regions" was established,and "The project of ecological protection and construction for the Three-River Headwaters Nature Reserve" was implemented by the Chinese government. This study,based on MODIS-NDVI and climate data,aims to analyze the spatiotemporal changes in vegetation coverage and its driving factors in the TRHR between 2000 and 2011,from three dimensions. Linear regression,Hurst index analysis,and partial correlation analysis were employed. The results showed the following:(1) In the past 12 years (2000-2011),the NDVI of the study area increased,with a linear tendency being 1.2%/10a,of which the Yangtze and Yellow River source regions presented an increasing trend,while the Lancang River source region showed a decreasing trend. (2) Vegetation coverage presented an obvious spatial difference in the TRHR,and the NDVI frequency was featured by a bimodal structure. (3) The area with improved vegetation coverage was larger than the degraded area,being 64.06% and 35.94%,respectively during the study period,and presented an increasing trend in the north and a decreasing trend in the south. (4) The reverse characteristics of vegetation coverage change are significant. In the future,degradation trends will be mainly found in the Yangtze River Basin and to the north of the Yellow River,while areas with improving trends are mainly distributed in the Lancang River Basin. (5) The response of vegetation coverage to precipitation and potential evapotranspiration has a time lag,while there is no such lag in the case of temperature. (6) The increased vegetation coverage is mainly attributed to the warm-wet climate change and the implementation of the ecological protection project.

  • Research Articles
    ZHANG Jiping, ZHANG Linbo, LIU Weiling, QI Yue, WO Xiao
    CSCD(1)

    The Three-River Headwaters region in China is an ecological barrier providing environmental protection and regional sustainable development for the mid-stream and downstream areas,which also plays an important role in animal husbandry in China. This study estimated the grassland yield in the Three-River Headwaters region based on MODIS NPP data,and calculated the proper livestock-carrying capacity of the grassland. We analyzed the overgrazing number and its spatial distribution characteristics through data comparison between actual and proper livestock-carrying capacity. The results showed the following:(1) total grassland yield (hay) in the Three-River Headwaters region was 10.96 million tons in 2010 with an average grassland yield of 465.70 kg/hm2 (the spatial distribution presents a decreasing trend from the east and southeast to the west and northwest in turn);(2) the proper livestock-carrying capacity in the Three-River Headwaters region is 12.19 million sheep units (hereafter described as "SU"),and the average stocking capacity is 51.27 SU [the proper carrying capacity is above 100 SU/km2 in the eastern counties,60 SU/km2 in the central counties (except Madoi County),and 30 SU/km2 in the western counties];and (3) total overgrazing number was 6.52 million SU in the Three-River Headwaters region in 2010,with an average overgrazing ratio of 67.88% and an average overgrazing number of 27.43 SU/km2. A higher overgrazing ratio occurred in Tongde,Xinghai,Yushu,Henan and Zêkog. There was no overgrazing in Zhiduo,Tanggula Township and Darlag,Qumerleb and Madoi. The remainder of the counties had varying degrees of overgrazing.

  • Research Articles
    WANG Xue, LI Xiubin, XIN Liangjie
    CSCD(9)

    This study firstly analyzed the shrinkage of winter wheat and the changes of cropping systems in the Hebei Plain from 1998 to 2010 based on the agricultural statistic data of 11 cities and meteorological data,including daily temperature,precipitation,water vapor,wind speed and minimum relative humidity data from 22 meteorological stations,and then calculated the water deficit and irrigation water resources required by different cropping systems,as well as the irrigation water resources conserved as a result of cropping system changes,using crop coefficient method and every ten-day effective precipitation estimation method. The results are as follows. 1) The sown areas of winter wheat in the 11 cities in the Hebei Plain all shrunk during the study period. The shrinkage rate was 16.07% and the total shrinkage area amounted to 49.62×104 ha. The shrinkage was most serious in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan metropolitan agglomerate,with a shrinkage rate of 47.23%. 2) The precipitation fill rate of winter wheat was only 20%-30%,while those of spring maize and summer maize both exceeded 50%. The irrigation water resources demanded by the winter wheat-summer maize double cropping system ranged from 400 mm to 530 mm,while those demanded by the spring maize single cropping system ranged only from 160 mm to 210 mm. 3) The water resources conserved as a result of the winter wheat sown area shrinkage during the study period were about 15.96×108 m3/a,accounting for 27.85% of those provided for Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei by the first phase of the Mid-Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project.

  • Research Articles
    LI Guangdong, FANG Chuanglin, QIU Daochi, WANG Liping

    With rapid urbanization and the socio-economic transformation,cultivated land protection has gradually become a major concern in China. The economic compensation plays a crucial role in promoting cultivated land protection and improving the utilization ratio of cultivated land. Farmer household's satisfaction has a great influence on the effectiveness of compensation. Therefore,households' willingness to select the economic compensation pattern for cultivated land protection has been considered and re-examined. By employing Participatory Rural Appraisal method (PRA),3 villages and 392 households were investigated and sampled in mesa and hilly areas of Chongqing. Then a quantitative analysis framework of household livelihood hexagon has been developed to quantify the livelihood assets of different farmer households. Finally,the Gray Relation Model and Probit Regression Model have been employed to explore the coupling relationship between the household livelihood assets and their compensation pattern options. The results show that there are both qualitative and spatial heterogeneity in household livelihood assets. We found that the inequality of livelihood assets is evident for five household types. There is a spatial trend that the higher the elevation,the less livelihood assets are. In addition,their options of economic compensation pattern vary from Chengdu Pattern to Foshan Pattern due to their difference in livelihood assets and difference in location. In detail,there is a coupling relationship between household livelihood assets and their compensation pattern;negative correlation is observed between natural assets value and household pattern options,while the other livelihood assets have positive impacts on compensation pattern in varying degrees,which from the top are psychological assets,human assets,physical assets,financial assets,and social assets respectively. A conceptual compensation pattern system has been designed to meet the demands for farmer households mainly according to their shortage in livelihood assets. In addition,compensation method,compensation standard,the basis of compensation and the source of compensation funds have been proposed accordingly.

  • Research Articles
    SI Peng, ZHENG Zuofang, REN Yu, LIANG Dongpo, LI Mingcai, SHU Wenjun
    CSCD(3)

    The regional changes of daily temperature extremes in North China caused by urbanization are studied further from observed facts and model estimates on the basis of homogenized daily series of maximum and minimum temperature observations from 268 meteorological stations,NCEP/DOE AMIP-Ⅱ reanalysis data (R-2),and the data of simulations by regional climate model (RegCM3). The observed facts of regional warming on long time scales are obtained by analyzing the indices of temperature extremes during two time periods of 1961-2010 and 1951-2010. For urbanization effect,the contributions to decreases in annual and winter diurnal temperature range (DTR) are 56.0% and 52.9%,respectively,and increases in the lowest minimum temperature (TNn) are 35.7% and 26.2% by comparison of urban and rural observations. Obtained by R-2 data with observations for contrast,on the other hand,increase in the number of annual warm nights (TN90p) contributed by urbanization is 60.9%. And observed facts of regional warming in daily temperature extremes are also reflected in the simulations,but what difference is urbanization progress at rural areas in North China would be prominent in the next few years relative to urban areas to some extent from model estimates.

  • Research Articles
    Nahid MOHAJERI, Agust GUDMUNDSSON

    In addition to socio-economic factors,major landforms may affect the city structure and urban form. Here we show that landforms have significant effects on the city shape and street patterns of the fast-growing Iranian cities of Dezful (a river) and Khorramabad (mountains and valleys),but no clear effects on the cities of Yazd and Nain. Also,where the street orientation is peaked,the Gibbs/Shannon entropy (a measure of dispersion or spread) is low,but increases as the distribution becomes more uniform because of landform constraints. The streets in the old inner parts of all the cities are,on average,shorter and denser (more streets per unit area) than the streets of the newer outer parts. The entropies of the outer parts are also greater than those of the inner parts,implying that the street-length distribution gradually becomes more dispersed or spread as the city expands. All these cities have been fast growing in the past decades,with the newer outer parts expanding rapidly. As shown here,the rapidly formed outer parts (with greater dispersion in street patterns) have significantly different textures from those of the older inner parts,indicating different functionality and growth processes. These quantitative methods for street-network analysis can be used worldwide,particularly for analysing the effects of landforms on city shape and texture.

  • Research Articles
    YUAN Quanzhi, WU Shaohong, ZHAO Dongsheng, DAI Erfu, CHEN Li, ZHANG Lei
    CSCD(15)

    Net primary productivity (NPP) is the most important index that represents the structure and function of the ecosystem. NPP can be simulated by dynamic global vegetation models (DGVM), which are designed to represent vegetation dynamics relative to environmental change. This study simulated the NPP of China's ecosystems based on the DGVM Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) with data on climate, soil, and topography. The applicability of IBIS in the NPP simulation of China's terrestrial ecosystems was verified first. Comparison with other relevant studies indicates that the range and mean value of simulations are generally within the limits of observations; the overall pattern and total annual NPP are close to the simulations conducted with other models. The simulations are also close to the NPP estimations based on remote sensing. Validation proved that IBIS can be utilized in the large-scale simulation of NPP in China's natural ecosystem. We then simulated NPP with climate change data from 1961 to 2005, when warming was particularly striking. The following are the results of the simulation. (1) Total NPP varied from 3.61 GtC/yr to 4.24 GtC/yr in the past 45 years and exhibited minimal significant linear increase or decrease. (2) Regional differences in the increase or decrease in NPP were large but exhibited an insignificant overall linear trend. NPP declined in most parts of eastern and central China, especially in the Loess Plateau. (3) Similar to the fluctuation law of annual NPP, seasonal NPP also displayed an insignificant increase or decrease; the trend line was within the general level. (4) The regional differences in seasonal NPP changes were large. NPP declined in spring, summer, and autumn in the Loess Plateau but increased in most parts of the Tibetan Plateau.

  • Research Articles
    XU Jinyong, ZHANG Zengxiang, ZHAO Xiaoli, WEN Qingke, ZUO Lijun, WANG Xiao, YI Ling
    CSCD(6)

    This study examined the spatial distribution of the continent coastline in northern China using remote sensing and GIS techniques, and calculated the fractal dimension of the coastline by box-counting method, with a time span from 2000 to 2012. Moreover, we analyzed the characteristics of spatial-temporal changes in the coastline's length and fractal dimension, the relationship between the length change and fractal dimension change, and the driving forces of coastline changes in northern China. During the research period, the coastline of the study area increased by 637.95 km, at a rate of 53.16 km per year. On the regional level, the most significant change in coastline length was observed in Tianjin and Hebei. Temporally, the northern China coastline grew faster after 2008. The most dramatic growth was found between 2010 and 2011, with an increasing rate of 2.49% per year. The fractal dimension of the coastline in northern China was increasing during the research period, and the most dramatic increase occurred in Bohai Rim. There is a strong-positive linear relationship between the historical coastline length and fractal dimension (the correlation coefficient was 0.9962). Through statistical analysis of a large number of local coastline changes, it can be found that the increase (or decrease) of local coastline length will, in most cases, lead to the increase (or decrease) of the whole coastline fractal dimension. Civil-coastal engineering construction was the most important factor driving the coastline change in northern China. Port construction, fisheries facilities and salt factories were the top three construction activities. Compared to human activities, the influence of natural processes such as estuarine deposit and erosion were relatively small.

  • Research Articles
    CHEN Mingxing, HUANG Yongbin, TANG Zhipeng, LU Dadao, LIU Hui, MA Li
    CSCD(21)

    Understanding the relationship between China's urbanization and economic development on a provincial scale is of profound theoretical and practical significance. Based on data from 124 countries or regions throughout the world and 31 provinces or autonomous regions in China, applying improved methods using the quadrant map approach, this paper analyzed the spatial pattern of the relationship between China's urbanization and economic development level. The study identified the following results. (1) The 31 province-level regions fall into six categories: only one region is in the category of sharp over-urbanization, 3 regions are in medium over-urbanization, 11 slight over-urbanization, 8 basic coordination, one medium under-urbanization, and seven slight under-urbanization. (2) There are significant regional differences on a provincial scale in the relationships between urbanization and the level of economic development. (3) The provincial pattern of urbanization and economic development is significantly different between east and west. The eastern coastal areas are mainly over-urbanized, while the central and western regions are mainly under-urbanized. (4) The relationship between urbanization and the level of economic development is similar to the Matthew effect. Hence, two important insights are proposed. First, the phenomenon of over-urbanization in some developed regions should be viewed with some concern and vigilance. Second, urbanization needs to be speeded up moderately in the central and western regions.

  • Research Articles
    ZHANG Xueyan, ZHUANG Dafang, MA Xin, JIANG Dong

    Esophageal cancer exhibits one of the highest incidence and mortality rates in China. Malignant tumors caused by esophageal cancer, and the relationship to environmental factors has been the focus of many public health studies. This study applied spatial analysis to ascertain the relationship between water pollution and esophageal cancer mortality rates nationwide. We employed two datasets, including a national investigation of esophageal cancer rates and distribution, and national water quality grades in China's primary rivers and lakes. Esophageal cancer data were grouped based on different water quality grades, which included a scaled buffer distance from rivers and lakes. Non-parametric correlation analyses were performed to examine the presence or absence of the following correlations: (i) esophageal cancer mortality and buffer distance from rivers and lakes; and (ii) esophageal cancer mortality and water quality grade values. The present study revealed a significant positive correlation between widespread water pollution and esophageal cancer mortality nationwide; and a significant negative correlation between esophageal cancer mortality, and buffer distance from rivers and lakes.

  • Research Articles
    WANG Qiong, ZHANG Mingjun, WANG Shengjie, MA Qian, SUN Meiping
    CSCD(4)

    Based on daily maximum and minimum temperature observed by the China Meteorological Administration at 115 meteorological stations in the Yangtze River Basin from 1962 to 2011, the methods of linear regression, principal component analysis and correlation analysis are employed to investigate the temporal variability and spatial distribution of temperature extremes. Sixteen indices of extreme temperature are selected. The results are as follows: (1) The occurrence of cold days, cold nights, ice days, frost days and cold spell duration indicator has significantly decreased by -0.84, -2.78, -0.48, -3.29 and -0.67 days per decade, respectively. While the occurrence of warm days, warm nights, summer days, tropical nights, warm spell duration indicator and growing season length shows statistically significant increasing trends at rates of 2.24, 2.86, 2.93, 1.80, 0.83 and 2.30 days per decade, respectively. The tendency rate of the coldest day, coldest night, warmest day, warmest night and diurnal temperature range is 0.33, 0.47, 0.16, 0.19 and -0.07℃ per decade, respectively. (2) The magnitudes of changes in cold indices (cold nights, coldest day and coldest night) are obviously greater than those of warm indices (warm nights, warmest day and warmest night). The change ranges of night indices (warm nights and cold nights) are larger than those of day indices (warm days and cold days), which indicates that the change of day and night temperature is asymmetrical. (3) Spatially, the regionally averaged values of cold indices in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin are larger than those in the middle and lower reaches. However, the regionally averaged values of most warm indices (except warm spell duration indicator) and growing season length in the middle and lower reaches are larger than those in the upper reaches. (4) The extreme temperature indices are well correlated with each other except diurnal temperature range.