Vulnerability of natural ecosystem in China under regional climate scenarios：An analysis based on eco-geographical regions

doi:10.1007/s11442-014-1085-3

›› 2014, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (2): 237-248.doi: 10.1007/s11442-014-1085-3

• Research Articles • 上一篇下一篇

Vulnerability of natural ecosystem in China under regional climate scenarios：An analysis based on eco-geographical regions

ZHAO Dongsheng, WU Shaohong

Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China

收稿日期:2013-07-12 修回日期:2013-08-15 出版日期:2014-04-15 发布日期:2014-03-24
通讯作者: Wu Shaohong (1961-）, PhD and Professor, E-mail：wush@igsnrr.ac.cn E-mail:wush@igsnrr.ac.cn
作者简介:Zhao Dongsheng (1978-), PhD, specialized in impact and adaption of ecosystem to climate change. E-mail：zhaods@igsnrr.ac.cn
基金资助:
The "Strategic Priority Research Program" of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.XDA05090308; National Key Technologies R&D Program during the 12th Five-Year Plan of China, No.2012BAC19B04; No.2012BAC19B10

Vulnerability of natural ecosystem in China under regional climate scenarios：An analysis based on eco-geographical regions

ZHAO Dongsheng, WU Shaohong

Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China

Received:2013-07-12 Revised:2013-08-15 Online:2014-04-15 Published:2014-03-24
Contact: Wu Shaohong (1961-）, PhD and Professor, E-mail：wush@igsnrr.ac.cn E-mail:wush@igsnrr.ac.cn
About author:Zhao Dongsheng (1978-), PhD, specialized in impact and adaption of ecosystem to climate change. E-mail：zhaods@igsnrr.ac.cn
Supported by:
The "Strategic Priority Research Program" of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.XDA05090308; National Key Technologies R&D Program during the 12th Five-Year Plan of China, No.2012BAC19B04; No.2012BAC19B10

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

Assessment of vulnerability for natural ecosystem to climate change is a hot topic in climate change and ecology,and will support adapting and mitigating climate change. In this study,LPJ model modified according to features of China's natural ecosystems was employed to simulate ecosystem dynamics under A2,B2 and A1B scenarios. Vulnerability of natural ecosystem to climate change was assessed according to the vulnerability assessment model. Based on eco-geographical regions,vulnerability of natural ecosystem to climate change was analyzed. Results suggest that vulnerability for China's natural ecosystems would strengthen in the east and weaken in the west,but the pattern of ecosystem vulnerability would not be altered by climate change,which rises from southeast to northeast gradually. Increase in ecosystem vulnerable degree would mainly concentrate in temperate humid/sub-humid region and warm temperate humid/sub-humid region. Decrease in ecosystem vulnerable degree may emerge in northwestern arid region and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region. In the near-term scale,natural ecosystem in China would be slightly affected by climate change. However,in mid-term and long-term scales,there would be severely adverse effect,particularly in the east with better water and thermal condition.

关键词: climate change, natural ecosystem, vulnerability, regional climate scenarios

Abstract:

Key words: climate change, natural ecosystem, vulnerability, regional climate scenarios

ZHAO Dongsheng, WU Shaohong. Vulnerability of natural ecosystem in China under regional climate scenarios：An analysis based on eco-geographical regions[J]. , 2014, 24(2): 237-248.

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Vulnerability of natural ecosystem in China under regional climate scenarios：An analysis based on eco-geographical regions

Vulnerability of natural ecosystem in China under regional climate scenarios：An analysis based on eco-geographical regions

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