Journal of Geographical Sciences

Multidimensional and multiscenario assessment for cropland supply‒demand matches and sustainable development zoning

JIANG Zixin, LI Sinan, WANG Zhennan, ZHU Congmou, CHEN Yun, WANG Ke, ZHANG Jing

地理学报(英文版), 2025, 35(12): 2536-2558. DOI: 10.1007/s11442-025-2424-2

Indicator	Principle	Data sources and calculation process
Socioeconomic development	Rural per capita disposable income	The per capita disposable income in rural areas is derived from parameters such as the rural population and GDP through a mathematical function (Liang et al., 2023). The socioeconomic data for shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) is obtained from Chen et al. (2020)
Cropland resources sustainability	Cropland area	The 1-km resolution land use data for China under the SSP scenarios is sourced from Zhang et al. (2023), and the total cropland area for each prefecture-level city is calculated using ArcGIS software.
Ecological sustainability	Climate production	The calculation of climate productivity refers to He et al. (2014), where precipitation and temperature data are transformed into climate productivity. The simulated precipitation and temperature data are obtained from CMIP6 (https://aims2.llnl.gov/search/cmip6).
Cropland production sustainability	Multiple cropping index (MCI)	The multiple cropping index is derived from parameters such as the crop yield, rural population, and level of agricultural mechanization (Moein et al., 2018). The simulation of crop yield and agricultural mechanization level is referenced in the literature. The rural population data is sourced from Chen et al. (2020).

Table 2 Cropland sustainability assessment

本文的其它图/表

Figure 1 Study area and locations of the sampling sites in China
Figure 2 Study design
Table 1 Dining-out consumption factor K_i and conversion factor R_i
Figure 3 Changes in the per capita cropland footprint and changes in the cropland cropping structure from 2002 to 2022
Table 3 China’s total cropland footprint structure in 2022 (Mha)
Figure 4 Spatial patterns of the supply and demand of cropland (a. supply, b. demand, c. supply‒demand matches, d. quadrant diagram distribution of cropland supply‒demand matches)
Figure 5 Spatial division of SSP-simulated cropland supply and demand in 2030 and 2050 (a. 2030; b. 2050)
Figure 6 Multidimensional clustering of the agricultural sustainable zones (a. 2030; b. 2050; c. Data distribution of SSP1, SSP2, SSP3, and SSP5 in 2030 sustainable development zoning; d. Correlations of the indicators; e. Data distribution of SSP1, SSP2, SSP3, and SSP5 in 2050 sustainable development zoning)
Figure 7 Comparison and trends of dietary structure and cropping structure in 2002 and 2022