Journal of Geographical Sciences

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Multi-scenario land use prediction and layout optimization in Nanjing Metropolitan Area based on the PLUS model

CAO Ji, CAO Weidong, CAO Yuhong, WANG Xuewei, ZHANG Yizhen, MA Jinji

地理学报(英文版), 2024, 34(7): 1415-1436. DOI: 10.1007/s11442-024-2254-7

Year	2000		2010		2020
Land-use types (km²)	Area Proportion (%)		Area Proportion (%)		Area Proportion (%)
Farmland	42,791	65.40	39,790	60.8	38,620	59.0
Forest	12,696	19.40	13,088	20.0	12,883	19.7
Grassland	1493	2.28	2176	3.3	2329	3.6
Water body	5735	8.76	6812	10.4	6566	10.0
Built-up land	2725	4.16	3575	5.5	5043	7.7

Table 3 Area and proportion of each land use type in Nanjing Metropolitan Area

本文的其它图/表

Figure 1 Administrative divisions and terrain of the study area (Nanjing Metropolitan Area)
Figure 2 Research framework diagram
Table 1 Data sources
Table 2 EESC Indicators system
Figure 3 Forecast and reality comparison in Nanjing Metropolitan Area in 2020
Figure 4 Land use in Nanjing Metropolitan Area (a. 2000; b. 2010; c. 2020)
Figure 5 Transfer of land use change in Nanjing Metropolitan Area from 2000 to 2020
Table 4-1 Land use transfer in Nanjing Metropolitan Area from 2000 to 2010
Table 4-2 Land use transfer in Nanjing Metropolitan Area from 2010 to 2020
Figure 6 Distribution of ecological-economic spatial conflict in Nanjing Metropolitan Area (a. 2000; b. 2010; c. 2020)
Table 5 Area composition of different conflict types in Nanjing Metropolitan Area (%)
Figure 7 Composition of land use in different years of each conflict type in Nanjing Metropolitan Area (A, B and C refer to 2000, 2010 and 2020; 01, 02, 03, 04 and 05 refer to lowest, low, medium, high, highest spatial conflict levels, respectively.)
Table 6 Area and proportion of each main functional area plan type in Nanjing Metropolitan Area
Table 7 The PLUS model development zone setting in Nanjing Metropolitan Area
Figure 8 Setting diagram of the development zone under different scenarios in Nanjing Metropolitan Area (a. BAU scenario; b. ED scenario; c. EP scenario)
Table 8 Description table of different scenario settings in Nanjing Metropolitan Area
Figure 9 Land use of Nanjing Metropolitan Area under different scenarios in 2030-2050
Table 9 Land use prediction of Nanjing Metropolitan Area in different scenarios

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