This paper presents a scenario-based assessment of global future food security. To do that, the socio-economic and climate change scenarios were defined for the future and were linked to an integrated modeling framework. The crop yields simulated by the GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and crop areas simulated by the crop choice decision model were combined to calculate the total food production and per capita food availability, which was used to represent the status of food availability and stability. The per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) simulated by IFPSIM model was used to reflect the situation of food accessibility and affordability. Based on these two indicators, the future food security status was assessed at a global scale over a period of approximately 20 years, starting from the year 2000. The results show that certain regions such as South Asia and most African countries will likely remain hotspots of food insecurity in the future as both the per capita food availability and the capacity of being able to import food will decrease between 2000 and 2020. Low food production associated with poverty is the determining factor to starvation in these regions, and more efforts are needed to combat hunger in terms of future actions. Other regions such as China, most Eastern European countries and most South American countries where there is an increase in per capita food availability or an increase in the capacity to import food between 2000 and 2020 might be able to improve their food security situation.

This paper calculated spatial accessibility of all counties (city, urban district) in China with cost weighted distance method. Region divisions of county accessibility were conducted, and relation of traffic accessibility and population aggregation was discussed in this paper. The results indicated that county accessibility in China had mainly low values and a distribution structure of circle layer and reverse-to-natural gradient. There was an obvious correlation between county accessibility and population density in China. With these analyses, inner mechanisms of population migration in different traffic conditions and region types were revealed, and can provide useful proposals to regional planning, traffic planning and smart distribution of people in China.

With the rapid increase of the number and influence of floating population in China, it is urgently needed to understand the regional types of China’s floating population and their spatial characteristics. After reviewing the current methods for identifying regional types of floating population, this paper puts forward a new composite-index identification method and its modification version which is consisted of two indexes of the net migration rate and gross migration rate. Then, the traditional single-index and the new composite-index identification methods are empirically tested to explore their spatial patterns and characteristics by using China’s 2000 census data at county level. The results show: (1) The composite-index identification method is much better than traditional single-index method because it can measure the migration direction and scale of floating simultaneously, and in particular it can identify the unique regional types of floating population with large scale of immigration and emigration. (2) The modified composite-index identification method, by using the share of a region’s certain type of floating population to the total in China as weights, can effectively correct the over- or under-estimated errors due to the rather large or small total population of a region. (3) The spatial patterns of different regional types of China’s floating population are closely related to the regional differentiation of their natural environment, population density and socio- economic development level. The three active regional types of floating population are mainly located in the eastern part of China with lower elevation, more than 800 mm precipitation, rather higher population densities and economic development levels.

Beijing is facing a huge challenge to manage the growth of its built-up area whilst also retaining both productive arable land and land for conservation purposes in order to simultaneously realize the three aims of economic development, protecting arable land and generating environmental improvements. Meanwhile, London, as a world city with more than 200 years of industrialization and urbanization, has accumulated rich theoretical and practical experiences for land use planning in a major urban area, such as the creation of Garden Cities, a designated Green Belt and New Towns. This paper firstly analyzes the main characteristics of the spatial distribution of the built-up area, arable land and conservation land in Beijing. Then, some of the key aspects of urban fringe planning in the London region are examined. Lastly, several implications from the experience of London are provided with respect to land-use planning for Beijing, concentrating on a re-appraisal of land-use functions around Beijing, measures to improve the green belt, the development of small towns to house rural-urban migrants and urban overspill, and effective implementation of land-use planning.

Local spatial interaction between neighborhood land-use categories (i.e. neighborhood interaction) is an important factor which affects urban land-use change patterns. Therefore, it is a key component in cellular automata (CA)-based urban geosimulation models towards the simulation and forecast of urban land-use changes. Purpose of this paper is to interpret the similarities and differences of the characteristics of neighborhood interaction in urban land-use changes of different metropolitan areas in Japan for providing empirical materials to understand the mechanism of urban land-use changes and construct urban geosimulation models. Characteristics of neighborhood interaction in urban land-use changes of three metropolitan areas in Japan, i.e. Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya, were compared using such aids as the neighborhood interaction model and similarity measure function. As a result, urban land-use in the three metropolitan areas was found to have had similar structure and patterns during the study period. Characteristics of neighborhood interaction in urban land-use changes are quite different from land-use categories, meaning that the mechanism of urban land-use changes comparatively differs among land-use categories. Characteristics of neighborhood interaction reveal the effect of spatial autocorrelation in the spatial process of urban land-use changes in the three metropolitan areas, which correspond with the characteristics of agglomeration of urban land-use allocation in Japan. Neighborhood interaction amidst urban land-use changes between the three metropolitan areas generally showed similar characteristics. The regressed neighborhood interaction coefficients in the models may represent the general characteristics of neighborhood effect on urban land-use changes in the cities of Japan. The results provide very significant materials for exploring the mechanism of urban land-use changes and the construction of universal urban geosimulation models which may be applied to any city in Japan.

The spatial differentiation of land use changes of Tuticorin is studied using high resolution LISS III satellite imagery and Maximum Likelihood algorithms. The classification accuracy of 95.2% was obtained. In this study, the land use of Tuticorin is classified as settlement, salt pan, agricultural land, wasteland, water bodies and shrubs. The settlement area is increased to 4.6 km² during the year 2001 and 2006. The settlement area change is mainly driven by growth of industries and migration of people from peripheral villages. Shrub is increased to 3.63 km² in the six year period. Water logging due to growth of shrubs in Tuticorin leads to several environmental and health hazard. This study warrants proper urban planning for Tuticorin for sustainable use of resource and environment.

Geomorphologic maps are one of the most fundamental materials of the natural environment. They have been widely used in scientific research, resource exploration and extraction, education and military affairs etc. An editorial committee was established in 2001 to collect materials for researching and compiling a set of new 1:1,000,000 geomorphologic atlas of China. A digital geomorphologic database was created with visual interpretation from Landsat TM/ETM imageries and SRTM-DEM etc. The atlas compiled from the database was finished. The main characteristics of the atlas are as follows: Firstly, Landsat TM/ETM imageries, published geomorphologic maps or sketches, geographical base maps, digital geological maps, and other thematic maps were collected, which were uniformly geometrically rectified, clipped into uniform sheets, and stored in the foundation database. Secondly, based on the legends of 15 sheets 1:1,000,000 maps published in the 1980s, a geomorphologic classification system was built by combining morphology and genesis types. The system comprised seven hierarchical layers: basic morphology, genesis, sub-genesis, morphology, micro-morphology, slope and aspect, material composition and lithology. These layers were stored in the database during visual image interpretation. About 2000 kinds of morpho- genesis and 300 kinds of morpho-structure were interpreted. Thirdly, the legend system was built, which included color, symbol bases and note bases etc., compilation standards and procedures were developed, 74 sheets of 1:1,000,000 covering all land and sea territories of China were compiled, the 1:1,000,000 geomorphologic atlas of the People’s Republic of China was finished and published. The atlas will fill the blanks in national basic scale thematic maps, and the geomorphologic database could be applied widely in many fields in the future.

Spatial relations, reflecting the complex association between geographical phenomena and environments, are very important in the solution of geographical issues. Different spatial relations can be expressed by indicators which are useful for the analysis of geographical issues. Urbanization, an important geographical issue, is considered in this paper. The spatial relationship indicators concerning urbanization are expressed with a decision table. Thereafter, the spatial relationship indicator rules are extracted based on the application of rough set theory. The extraction process of spatial relationship indicator rules is illustrated with data from the urban and rural areas of Shenzhen and Hong Kong, located in the Pearl River Delta. Land use vector data of 1995 and 2000 are used. The extracted spatial relationship indicator rules of 1995 are used to identify the urban and rural areas in Zhongshan, Zhuhai and Macao. The identification accuracy is approximately 96.3%. Similar procedures are used to extract the spatial relationship indicator rules of 2000 for the urban and rural areas in Zhongshan, Zhuhai and Macao. An identification accuracy of about 83.6% is obtained.

Afforestation in China’s subtropics plays an important role in sequestering CO₂ from the atmosphere and in storage of soil carbon (C). Compared with natural forests, plantation forests have lower soil organic carbon (SOC) content and great potential to store more C. To better evaluate the effects of afforestation on soil C turnover, we investigated SOC and its stable C isotope (δ¹³C) composition in three planted forests at Qianyanzhou Ecological Experimental Station in southern China. Litter and soil samples were collected and analyzed for total organic C, δ¹³C and total nitrogen. Similarly to the vertical distribution of SOC in natural forests, SOC concentrations decrease exponentially with depth. The land cover type (grassland) before plantation had a significant influence on the vertical distribution of SOC. The SOC δ¹³C composition of the upper soil layer of two plantation forests has been mainly affected by the grass biomass ¹³C composition. Soil profiles with a change in photosynthetic pathway had a more complex ¹³C isotope composition distribution. During the 20 years after plantation establishment, the soil organic matter sources influenced both the δ¹³C distribution with depth, and C replacement. The upper soil layer SOC turnover in masson pine (a mean 34% of replacement in the 10 cm after 20 years) was more than twice as fast as that of slash pine (16% of replacement) under subtropical conditions. The results demonstrate that masson pine and slash pine plantations cannot rapidly sequester SOC into long-term storage pools in subtropical China.

We analyzed the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from satellite images and precipitation data from meteorological stations from 1998 to 2007 in the Dongting Lake wetland watershed to better understand the eco-hydrological effect of atmospheric precipitation and its relationship with vegetation. First, we analyzed its general spatio-temporal distribution using its mean, standard deviation and linear trend. Then, we used the Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) method to decompose the NDVI and precipitation data into spatial and temporal modes. We selected four leading modes based on North and Scree test rules and analyzed the synchronous seasonal and inter-annual variability between the vegetation index and precipitation, distinguishing time-lagged correlations between EOF modes with the correlative degree analysis method. According to our detailed analyses, the vegetation index and precipitation exhibit a prominent correlation in spatial distribution and seasonal variation. At the 90% confidence level, the time lag is around 110 to 140 days, which matches well with the seasonal variation.

Based on data collected over five years of monitoring the Lower Tarim River, we analyzed the variability of soil moisture content (SMC) and the relationship between SMC, groundwater table depth (GWD) and vegetation by using the methods of coefficient of variation (Cv), Pearson correlation and regression. The results of the variability of SMC indicate that it rose with increase in depth of soil layer – SMC in the soil layer of 0–60 cm was relatively small compared to SMC in the soil layer of 100–260 cm which showed a significant increase in variability. SMC and GWD before and after ecological water diversions exhibited significant differences at the site of the Yingsu transect and its vicinity of the watercourse, especially SMC in the soil layer of 100–260 cm increased significantly with a significant rise of GWD and reached maximum values at a GWD of about 4 m. Plant coverage and species diversity significantly improved with increases in SMC in the soil layer of 100–260 cm, both of them approached the maximum values and 92.3% of major plant species were able to grow when SMC was > 10%. To restore the ecosystem of desert riparian forest along the Lower Tarim River, the GWD must be maintained at < 4 m in the vicinity of the watercourse and at about 4 m for the rest of this arid region.

Based on the static opaque chamber method, the respiration rates of soil microbial respiration, soil respiration, and ecosystem respiration were measured through continuous in-situ experiments during rapid growth season in semiarid Leymus chinensis steppe in the Xilin River Basin of Inner Mongolia, China. Soil temperature and moisture were the main factor affecting respiration rates. Soil temperature can explain most CO₂ efflux variations (R²=0.376–0.655) excluding data of low soil water conditions. Soil moisture can also effectively explain most of the variations of soil and ecosystem respiration (R²=0.314–0.583), but it can not explain much of the variation of microbial respiration (R²=0.063). Low soil water content (≤5%) inhibited CO₂ efflux though the soil temperature was high. Rewetting the soil after a long drought resulted in substantial increases in CO₂ flux at high temperature. Bivariable models based on soil temperature at 5 cm depth and soil moisture at 0–10 cm depth can explain about 70% of the variations of CO₂ effluxes. The contribution of soil respiration to ecosystem respiration averaged 59.4%, ranging from 47.3% to 72.4%; the contribution of root respiration to soil respiration averaged 20.5%, ranging from 11.7% to 51.7%. The contribution of soil to ecosystem respiration was a little overestimated and root to soil respiration little underestimated because of the increased soil water content that occurred as a result of plant removal.

Tropical forests have been recognized as having global conservation importance. However, they are being rapidly destroyed in many regions of the world. Regular monitoring of forests is necessary for an adaptive management approach and the successful implementation of ecosystem management. The present study analyses the temporal changes in forest ecosystem structure in tribal dominated Malkangiri district of Orissa, India, during 1973–2004 period based on digitized forest cover maps using geographic information system (GIS) and interpretation of satellite data. Three satellite images Landsat MSS (1973), Landsat TM (1990) and IRS P6 LISS III (2004) were used to determine changes. Six land cover types were delineated which includes dense forest, open forest, scrub land, agriculture, barren land and water body. Different forest types were also demarcated within forest class for better understanding the degradation pattern in each forest types. The results showed that there was a net decrease of 475.7 km2 forest cover (rate of deforestation = 2.34) from 1973 to 1990 and 402.3 km2 (rate of deforestation = 2.27) from 1990 to 2004. Forest cover has changed over time depending on a few factors such as large-scale deforestation, shifting cultivation, dam and road construction, unregulated management actions, and social pressure. A significant increase of 1222.8 km2 agriculture area (1973–2004) clearly indicated the conversion of forest cover to agricultural land. These alterations had resulted in significant environmental consequences, including decline in forest cover, soil erosion, and loss of biodiversity. There is an urgent need for rational management of the remaining forest for it to be able to survive beyond next decades. Particular attention must be paid to tropical forests, which are rapidly being deforested.

The most important climatological feature of the South Asian region is the occurrence of monsoons. With increasing concerns about climate change, the need to understand the nature and variability of such climatic conditions and to evaluate possible future changes becomes increasingly important. This paper deals with long-term above and below normal monsoon precipitation causing prolong meteorological droughts and floods in India. Five regions across India comprising variable climates were selected for the study. Apart from long-term trends for individual regions, long-term trends were also calculated for the Indian region as a whole. The results show that intra-region variability for monsoon precipitation is large and there are increasing numbers of meteorological summer droughts. Meteorological monsoon floods were found to have negative long-term trends everywhere except in the peninsular Indian region. The results overall suggest generic conclusions concerning the region-wide long-term trend of severity of monsoon droughts and floods in India and their spatial variability.

This study has investigated the influence of Arctic Oscillation (AO) on dust storm frequency in North China in spring seasons during 1961?2007. There is a significant linkage between dust storm frequency and AO; a negative (positive) AO phase is related to an increased (decreased) dust storm frequency in North China. This relationship is closely related to changes in the cold air activity in Mongolia. The cold air activity exerts large impacts on the dust storm frequency; the frequency of cold air activity over Mongolia not only positively correlates with the dust storm frequency in North China, but also shows a long-term decreasing trend that is an important reason for the long-term decreasing of dust storm frequency in North China. The AO has large influence on the frequency of cold air activity over Mongolia; a negative (positive) AO phase is highly related to an increased (decreased) frequency of cold air activity over Mongolia, which results in an increased (decreased) dust storm frequency in North China.

An abrupt ice and snow storm disaster which occurred in the spring of 2008 severely destroyed forests over a surprisingly large portion of southern China. A transect crossing Jinggang Mountain-Jitai Basin-Yushan Mountain-Wuyi Mountain was selected as the study area. The authors integrated field data collected in two field surveys to analyze the impacts of the disturbance on forests. The following results were obtained. (1) The extent of damage to plantations along the transect decreased in the order of slash pine > masson pine > mixed plantation > Chinese fir. Slash pine is an introduced species from southern America which is characterized by fast growth, low wood quality and rich oleoresin, and showed a damage rate of 61.3% of samples, of which 70.4% cannot recover naturally. Masson pine is the native pioneer species of forests with harder wood, and 52.5% were damaged due to turpentine, of which 60.9% cannot recovery naturally. Chinese fir is a local tree species and samples showed a rate of 46% and a relative rate of 32.5%, lower than the mixed plantation. (2) From west to east along the transect, we can see that evergreen broad-leaved forest of the western transect on Jinggang Mountain showed the lightest damage extent, and a Cryptomeria plantation at an altitude of 700 m was severely destroyed while Chinese fir showed light damage below 700 m and relatively severe damage above 900 m. Masson pine and slash pine in the central transect in Jitai Basin were damaged severely due to turpentine activities, and closed natural secondary deciduous broad-leaved forest was damaged severely due to high ice and snow accumulation on intertwined shrubs. Masson pine aerial-seeding plantations below 400 m along the eastern transect in Xingguo and Ningdu counties were nearly undamaged for small tree sizes, and Chinese fir at 500-900 m altitude showed a lighter damage extent. However, masson pine which was distributed above 400 m and planted in the 1960s, was severely damaged due to turpentine.

Based on the monthly precipitation data for the period 1960-2008 from 616 rainfall stations and the phenology data of main grain crops, the spatial characteristics of drought hazard in China were investigated at a 10 km×10 km grid-cell scale using a GIS-based drought hazard assessment model, which was constructed by using 3-month Standard Precipitation Index (SPI). Drought-prone areas and heavy drought centers were also identified in this study. The spatial distribution of drought hazard in China shows apparent east-west difference, with the eastern part of China being far more hazardous than the western part. High hazard areas are common in the eastern and central parts of Inner Mongolian Plateau, the central part of Northeast China Plain, the northern part of Heilongjiang, the southeastern part of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the central and southern parts of Loess Plateau, the southern part of North China Plain, the northern and southern parts of Yangtze River Plain, and Yunnan- Guizhou Plateau. Furthermore, obvious differences in drought hazard were found both within and between different agricultural zonings.

In recent years, the socio-economic impacts of winter extreme climate events have underscored the importance of winter climate anomalies in Southwest China (SWC). The spatio-temporal variability of surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation in SWC and their possible causes have been investigated in this paper based on observational data from 1961 to 2010. The results indicate that SAT anomalies in SWC have two dominate modes, one is homogenous, and the other a zonal dipole. The former is caused by the anomalies of East Asian winter monsoon; the latter arises from the anomalies of both subtropical west Pacific high and regional cold air in lower troposphere. The most dominant mode of precipitation anomalies in SWC is homogenous and it has a high correlation with northern hemisphere annular mode (NAM，AO). Neither NAM nor ENSO has significant impacts on SAT in SWC. The anomalies of NAM are associated with the anomalies of tropical circulations, and therefore precipitation over the SWC. When NAM is in positive (negative) phase, the winter precipitation is more (less) than normal in SWC. Winter precipitation increase over the whole SWC is associated with the El Ni?o. However, during La Ni?a winter, the pattern is not uniform. There is an increase in precipitation over the central parts and a decrease in western and eastern parts of SWC. The severe drought in SWC in winter 2010 is more likely caused by anomalies of NAM, not El Ni?o.

Based on the statistics of glacier area variation measured in the Chinese Tianshan Mountains since 1960, the response of glacier area variation to climate change is discussed systematically. As a result, the total area of the glaciers has been reduced by 11.5% in the past 50 years, which is a weighted percentage according to the glacier area variations of 10 drainage basins separated by the Glacier Inventory of China (GIC). The annual percentage of area changes (APAC) of glaciers in the Chinese Tianshan Mountains is 0.31% after the standardization of the study period. The APAC varies widely for different drainage basins, but the glaciers are in a state of rapid retreat, generally. According to the 14 meteorological stations in the Chinese Tianshan Mountains, both the temperature and precipitation display a marked increasing tendency from 1960 to 2009 at a rate of 0.34℃·(10a)^-1 and 11 mm·(10a)^-1, respectively. The temperature in the dry seasons (from November to March) increases rapidly at a rate of 0.46℃·(10a)^-1, but the precipitation grows slowly at 2.3 mm·(10a)^-1. While the temperature in the wet seasons (from April to October) grows at a rate of 0.25 ℃·(10a)^-1, but the precipitation increases at 8.7 mm·(10a)^-1. The annual and seasonal climatic trends accelerate the retreat of glaciers.

Scenario modelling and the risk assessment of natural disasters is one of the hotspots in disaster research. However, up until now, urban natural disaster risk assessments lack common procedures and programmes. This paper selects rainstorm waterlogging as a disaster to research, which is one of the most frequently occurring hazards for most cities in China. As an example, we used a small-scale integrated methodology to assess risks relating to rainstorm waterlogging hazards in the Jing’an District of Shanghai. Based on the basic concept of disaster risk, this paper applies scenario modelling to express the risk of small-scale urban rainstorm waterlogging disasters in different return periods. Through this analysis of vulnerability and exposure, we simulate different disaster scenarios and propose a comprehensive analysis method and procedure for small-scale urban storm waterlogging disaster risk assessments. A grid-based Geographical Information System (GIS) approach, including an urban terrain model, an urban rainfall model and an urban drainage model, was applied to simulate inundation area and depth. Stage-damage curves for residential buildings and contents were then generated by the loss data of waterlogging from field surveys, which were further applied to analyse vulnerability, exposure and loss assessment. Finally, the exceedance probability curve for disaster damage was constructed using the damage of each simulated event and the respective exceedance probabilities. A framework was also developed for coupling the waterlogging risk with the risk planning and management through the exceedance probability curve and annual average waterlogging loss. This is a new exploration for small-scale urban natural disaster scenario simulation and risk assessment.

Using energy consumption and land use data of each region of China in 2007, this paper established carbon emission and carbon footprint model based on energy consumption, and estimated the carbon emission amount of fossil energy and rural biomass energy of different regions of China in 2007. Through matching the energy consumption items with industrial spaces, this paper divided industrial spaces into five types: agricultural space, living & industrial-commercial space, transportation industrial space, fishery and water conservancy space, and other industrial space. Then the author analyzed the carbon emission intensity and carbon footprint of each industrial space. Finally, advices of decreasing industrial carbon footprint and optimizing industrial space pattern were put forward. The main conclusions are as following: (1) Total amount of carbon emission from energy consumption of China in 2007 was about 1.65 GtC, in which the proportion of carbon emission from fossil energy was 89%. (2) Carbon emission intensity of industrial space of China in 2007 was 1.98 t/hm², in which, carbon emission intensity of living & industrial-commercial space and of transportation industrial space was 55.16 t/hm² and 49.65 t/hm² respectively, they were high-carbon-emission industrial spaces among others. (3) Carbon footprint caused by industrial activities of China in 2007 was 522.34×10⁶ hm², which brought about ecological deficit of 28.69×10⁶ hm², which means that the productive lands were not sufficient to compensate for carbon footprint of industrial activities, and the compensating rate was 94.5%. As to the regional carbon footprint, several regions have ecological profit while others have not. In general, the present ecological deficit caused by industrial activities was small in 2007. (4) Per unit area carbon footprint of industrial space in China was about 0.63 hm²/hm² in 2007, in which that of living & industrial- commercial space was the highest (17.5 hm²/hm²). The per unit area carbon footprint of different industrial spaces all presented a declining trend from east to west of China.

International trade is an important impact factor to the carbon emissions of a country. As the rapid development of Chinese foreign trade since its entry into the WTO in 2002, the effects of international trade on carbon emissions of China are more and more significant. Using the recent available input-output tables of China and energy consumption data, this study estimated the effects of Chinese foreign trade on carbon emissions and the changes of the effects by analyzing the emissions embodied in trade between 2002 and 2007. The results showed a more and more significant exporting behavior of embodied carbon emissions in Chinese international trade. From 2002 to 2007, the proportion of net exported emissions and domestic exported emissions in domestic emissions increased from 18.32% to 29.79% and from 23.97% to 34.76%, respectively. In addition, about 22.10% and 32.29% of the total imported emissions were generated in processing trade in 2002 and 2007, respectively, which were imported and later exported emissions. Although, most of the sectors showed a growth trend in imported and exported emissions, sectors of electrical machinery and communication electronic equipment, chemical industry, and textile were still the biggest emission exporters, the net exported emissions of which were also the largest. For China and other developing countries, technology improvement may be the most favorable and acceptable ways to reduce carbon emissions at present stage. In the future negotiations on emissions reduction, it would be more fair and reasonable to include the carbon emissions embodied in international trade when accounting the total emissions of an economy.

Dynamic urban expansion simulation at regional scale is one of the important research methodologies in Land Use/Cover Change (LUCC) and global environmental change influenced by urbanization. However, previous studies indicate that the single urban expansion simulation for future scenarios at local scale cannot meet the requirements for characterizing and interpreting the interactive mechanisms of regional urbanization and global environmental change. This study constructed a regional Dynamic Urban Expansion Model (Reg-DUEM) suitable for different scenarios by integrating the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Cellular Automaton (CA) model. Firstly we analyzed the temporal and spatial characteristics of urban expansion and acquired a prior knowledge rules using land use/cover change datasets of Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan metropolitan area. The future urban expansion under different scenarios is then simulated based on a baseline model, economic models, policy models and the structural adjustment model. The results indicate that Reg-DUEM has good reliability for a non-linear expansion simulation at regional scale influenced by macro-policies. The simulating results show that future urban expansion patterns from different scenarios of the metropolitan area have the tremendous spatio-temporal differences. Future urban expansion will shift quickly from Beijing metropolis to the periphery of Tianjin and Tangshan city along coastal belt.

Valley economy is a new mode in mountainous area development that is defined by various characters of valley development, and is a distinguishing economical geographic pattern for mountainous area development. The special spatial coupling relations in the distribution of different mountainous elements in valleys are new subjects for the mountain development studies, and such studies are meaningful both for researches and practices. Based on the long term researches on mountainous area development and following a brief exploration into the connotations and the spatial organizing process of valley economy, the authors analyzed the present situations of the development of valley economy in Beijing’s mountainous areas, studied the characteristics and the impacts of the spatial structural changes of the valley economy in Beijing’s mountainous areas, and finally proposed a rational arrangement of the spatial structure of the valley economy in Beijing’s mountainous areas. It is considered in this study that valley economy plays an important role in the development and functional transformation in Beijing’s mountainous areas in the new epoch. Firstly, valley economy is not outlined by the administrative boundaries, and it connects most of the villages in the mountainous areas roughly along the major transportation lines. Therefore, valley economy can exert positive influence on the development in the mountainous areas, at least in the aspects such as the rearrangement of industrial structure in the mountainous areas and the coordinated development of rural and urban areas. In addition, it is found that the valley economy in Beijing’s mountainous areas is evolved in a spatial organizing stage of secondary concentration, which is characterized by resource-saving, ecological protection and industrial optimization. Therefore, the development of valley economy will be helpful to the coordination between ecological protection and economic development in the mountainous areas, and will promote the integrated development of the mountainous areas. The developing mode of the valley economy in Beijing’s mountainous areas will provide the basis for the decision-making in the transformation of the functional roles of Beijing’s mountainous areas, and on the other hand, will present experiences for the studies in the mountainous areas outside of Beijing.

To explore geographical differences in quantitative characteristics and spatial pattern of human settlements environmental suitability (HSES) in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (TGRA), terrain, climate, hydrology, vegetation and other natural factors were selected to build the livable environmental evaluation, and the quantitative analysis was conducted through Remote Sensing(RS) and Geographic Informational System (GIS) to reveal geographical characteristics and spatial patterns of HSES. The results are obtained as follows: (1) inhabitants of the TGRA of Chongqing are concentrated in the area with moderate high HSES, which is 78% of the total population distributed in 48% of the study area; (2) the HSES is closely related to the terrain, and it forms an arc-banded spatial succession pattern: relatively low in the northeast and the southeast while comparatively high in the west and the south; (3) large numbers of people are distributed in the area with low suitability (with higher population density than the average of the western China), but economic development level in these areas is quite low. Moreover, these areas are ecological sensitive and fragile, many kinds of eco-environmental problems have been caused by human activities. Therefore, population migration and layout are reasonable options for the development of these areas.

In recent years, the role of human activities in changing sediment yield has become more apparent for the construction of hydraulic engineering and water conservation projections in the Upper Yangtze River, but it has not been evaluated at the macro scale. Taking Sichuan Province and Chongqing City as an example, this paper studies the relationship between socio-economic factors and sediment yield in the Upper Yangtze River based on section data in 1989 and 2007. The results show that sediment yield is significantly correlated with population density and cultivated area, in which the former appears to be more closely related to sediment yield. Moreover, in the relation of sediment yield vs. population density, a critical value of population density exists, below which the sediment yield increases with the increase of population density and over which the sediment yield increases with the decrease of population density. The phenomenon essentially reflects the influence of natural factors, such as topography, precipitation and soil property, and some human activities on sediment yield. The region with a higher population density than critical value is located in the east of the study area and is characterized by plains, hills and low mountains, whereas the opposite is located in the west and characterized by middle and high mountains. In the eastern region, more people live on the lands with a low slope where regional soil erosion is slight; therefore, sediment yield is negatively related with population density. In contrast, in the western region, the population tends to aggregate in the areas with abundant soil and water resources which usually lead to a higher intensity of natural erosion, and in turn, high-intensity agricultural practices in these areas may further strengthen local soil erosion. It is also found that population tends to move from the areas with bad environment and high sediment yield to the areas with more comfortable environment and less sediment yield. The natural factors have greater influence on sediment yield of western region than that of eastern region. Generally, the natural factors play a dominant role on sediment yield in the Upper Yangtze River.

The geomorphological environment is one of the most fundamental variables affecting the development of human society. The mission of geomorphological environment research is to explore the most basic environment and features of our Earth’s surface morphology. The results can be applied to resource evaluation, environmental protection and reducing and preventing geological disasters. Thus, it can serve to help achieve sustainable development. This paper examines the Shenzhen east coastal zone as a case strongly influenced by urban expansion. We use modern geomorphological theory and methods, along with GIS and RS techniques, to reveal key characteristics of the geomorphological environment and landform classification. Furthermore, coastal ecosystem evaluation and regional resources sustainable utilization should be considered relative to the corresponding geomorphological environment. Based on this study, we conclude that modern geomorphological theory and methods, supported by “3S” techniques including GIS, RS and GPS, can play an important role in resolving the environment, resources and population problems as well as sustainable development challenges facing humankind at present.

Based on 22 sparse-distributed tide gauge records in the Northwest Pacific Ocean marginal sea, the process, characteristic and prediction of regional sea level change are discussed by the integration of the following methods. Firstly, the regularized EM algorithm (RegEM) and the Multi-taper Spectral Method (MTM) are adopted to interpret their multiscale fluctuation processes and their spatial-temporal variations. Secondly, the orderly cluster method is introduced to classify these tidal stations, and with the consideration of the space adjacent relation, we obtain five sub-regions (the coasts of Bohai Sea-northern Yellow Sea, Yellow Sea-East China Sea along Chinese coast, the East China Sea along Japanese coast, the southern East China Sea and the northwestern South China Sea). Furthermore, the Mean Generation Function (MGF) is explored to predict the medium- and long-term trends of each tide station. Finally, the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is employed to obtain regional- scale sea level change trends, sea level rise rates of the above five sub-regions from 2001 to 2030 are 1.23–1.27 mm/a, 3.30–3.34 mm/a, 2.72–2.76 mm/a, 1.43–1.47 mm/a and 1.13–1.15 mm/a respectively, and the whole region sea level rise rate is between 2.01 mm/a and 2.11 mm/a. The aim of our work is to conduct an integrated research on regional sea level change.

Stable isotopes of atmospheric water vapor reveal rich information on water movement and phase changes in the atmosphere. Here we presented two nearly continuous time-series of δD and δ¹⁸O of atmospheric water vapor (δ_v) measured at hourly intervals in surface air in Beijing and above a winter wheat canopy in Shijiazhuang using in-situ measurement technique. During the precipitation events, the δ_v values in both Beijing and Shijiazhuang were in the state of equilibrium with precipitation water, revealing the influence of precipitation processes. However, the δ_v departures from the equilibrium state were positively correlated with local relative humidity. Note that the δ_v tended to enrich in Beijing, but deplete in Shijiazhuang during the precipitation events, which mainly resulted from the influence of transpiration processes that enriched the δ_v in Shijiazhuang. On seasonal time-scale, the δ_v values were log-linear functions of water vapor mixing ratios in both Beijing and Shijiazhuang. The water vapor mixing ratio was an excellent predictor of the δ_v by the Rayleigh distillation mechanisms, indicating that air mass advection could also play an important role in determining the δ_v. On a diurnal time-scale, the δ_v reached the minimum in the early afternoon hours in Beijing which was closely related to the atmospheric processes of boundary layer entrainment. During the peak of growing season of winter wheat, however, the δ_v reached the minimum in the early morning, and increased gradually through the daytime, and reached the maximum in the late afternoon, which was responsible by the interaction between boundary layer entrainment and the local atmospheric processes, such as transpiration and dew formation. This study has the implications for the important role of vegetation in determining the surface δ_v and highlights the need to conduct δ_v measurement on short-term (e.g. diurnal) time scales.

The fourth assessment report of the IPCC highlights that the global average surface temperature is projected to increase by 1.8 to 4.0 by the year 2100 compared to ℃ current climate. Given that climate is the most important driver of the hydrological cycle, the rise in temperature could cause changes in occurrence patterns of extreme hydrologic events like streamflow droughts. An increase in frequency and severity of these events could pose serious challenges for sustainable management of water resources particular in arid regions. However, the understanding of water resources dynamics and the possible impacts of climate change on these dynamics is hindered by uncertainties in climate change models and complex hydrological responses of streams and catchments to climatic changes. Therefore observational evidence of streamflow dynamics at the local scale could play a crucial role in addressing these uncertainties and achieving a fuller reconciliation between model-based scenarios and ground truth. This paper determines spatial and temporal changes in streamflow volumes and their association with climatic factors based on the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test and ANOVA to determine possible changes in streamflow over the years and their relation to climatic factors. Streamflow is generally stochastic highlighting the importance of factoring in temporal flow variability in water resources planning. There is no clear evidence that changes in climatic variables are related to streamflow behaviour.

Göksu Delta is an important wetland where the Göksu River reaches to sea in the eastern of the town Tasucu-Ice1. The delta is classified as a Wetland of International Importance according to the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands of International Importance. The amount of fertilizers used in this area was 7200 tons in 2006. These pollutants affect the surface and groundwater quality negatively. The intensively used fertilizers and pesticides contain not only N- and P compounds but also some heavy metals. The contents of all pollutants in surface waters were determined for four different seasons between 2006 and 2008 and with these data a Geographic Information System (GIS) has been constructed by using Map Info. From the photometric heavy metal analysis, it is inferred that the excess concentration of Fe, Ni, Mn, Mo and Cu at some locations is the cause of undesirable quality for drinking purposes. The source of excess concentration of various heavy metals is the agricultural activities and fertilizers. It is determined that in all periods between 2006 and 2008 the heavy metals and other pollutants in the fertilizers and pesticides transported easily to river water with irrigation return flow. The organic pollutants, including COD, BOD, NH₃ and NO₃ followed the sharply increasing trends from Silifke city to Mediterranean Sea. The water quality of Göksu River is modeled and determined that the waste water discharge of 10,700 m³/day from Silifke city does not create a serious problem because of the high amount of flow rate of Göksu River.

Theoretical difficulties for mapping and for estimating river regime characteristics in a large-scale basin remain because of the nature of the variable under study: river flows are related to a specific area, i.e. the drainage basin, and are hierarchically organized in space through the river network with upstream-downstream dependencies. Another limitation is there are not enough gauge stations in developing countries. This presentation aims at developing the hydro-stochastic approach for producing choropleth maps of average annual runoff and computing mean discharge along the main river network for a large-scale basin. The approach applied to mean annual runoff is based on geostatistical interpolation procedures coupled with water balance and data uncertainty analyses. It is proved by an application in the upstream at Bengbu in the Huaihe River Basin, a typical large-scale basin in China. Hydro-stochasitic approach in a first step interpolates to a regular grid net and in a second step the grid values are integrated along rivers. The interpolation scheme includes a constraint to be able to account for the lateral water balance along the rivers. Grid runoff map with 10 km × 10 km resolution and the discharge map along the river with the 1 km basic length unit are the main results in this study. This kind of statistic approach can be widely used because it avoids the complexity of hydrological models and does not depend on the meteorological data.

A generalized, lumped-parameter ecological model PnET-CN was calibrated and validated for a subtropical coniferous plantation in southern China. PnET-CN model describes the biogeochemical cycles of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) and can assist in estimating carbon sequestration potential. For validation of PnET-CN, data from coniferous forest plantations in southern China was used. Simulated daily gross primary productivity (GPP) from 2005 to 2007 agreed well with observations (R²=0.56, S.D.=0.009). Simulations of monthly soil respiration (R_s) from 2005–2007 agreed well with R_s observations (R²=0.67, S.D. =0.03). Simulated annual net primary productivity (NPP) from 1998–2006 was 803±33 gCm^-2a^-1, about 4% higher than NPP observation (752±51 gCm^-2a^-1). Simulations of annual NEP from 2005^-2007 only overestimate 9 gCm^-2a^-1 (4%), 4 gCm^-2a^-1 (1%) and 34 gCm^-2a^-1 (8%) compared to NEP observations, respectively. Simulated annual foliar N concentration (FolNCon) (1.09%) is 10% lower than observed monthly FolNCon (0.87%–1.58%). Simulated annual N leaching (0.26 gNm^-2) is about 10% lower than leaching observation (0.29 gNm^-2). PnET-CN model validation indicates that PnET-CN is capable to simulate daily GPP, annual NPP, annual NEP, monthly R_s, annual FolNCon and annual nitrate N leaching for subtropical coniferous plantations in southern China. The results obtained from the validation test revealed that PnET-CN model can be used to simulate carbon sequestration of planted coniferous forests in southern China to a high level of precision. Sensitivity analysis suggests that great care should be taken in developing generalizations as to how forests will respond to a changing climate. PnET-CN performed satisfactorily in comparison to other models that have already been calibrated and validated in coniferous planted subtropical forests in China. Based on PnET-CN validation and its comparison to other models, future improvement of PnET-CN should focus on seasonal foliar N dynamics and the effects of water stress on autotrophic respirations in subtropical coniferous plantations in southern China.

Since reform and opening up, how much contribution has China's implementation of new agricultural policy made to agricultural output? This paper is trying to establish an agricultural policy output econometric model for doing a quantitative analysis of China's new agricultural policy. The results show that China's agricultural policies on agricultural output have an average contribution rate of about 7% since 1978, which is consistent with the OECD's basic forecast. There are obvious temporal and spatial differences. Generally speaking, we can divide the contribution of agricultural policy into three periods, which are the start-up phase from 1978 to 1991 (14 years), the stationary phase from 1992 to 2002 (11 years) and the rising phase from 2003 to 2008 (6 years). In space, the contribution of agricultural policy underwent a process from the all-low in the start-up phase, the gradual increase in the stationary phase to the all-high in the rising phase. Northern and western regions are more sensitive to policies. There are three major factors that can affect the contribution of regional agricultural policies, which are the process of national industrialization strategy, terrain and the level of local finance.

Due to unique advantages in clearly understanding the interrelationship between city and its hinterland, as well as city and city, the study of urban spheres of influence is becoming highlight in regional research. This paper improves traditional field model from two aspects: the composite indicator and regional accessibility, in order to delineate urban spheres of influence more reasonably. Taking three years of central China as a case study, this paper investigates dynamic evolution of urban spheres of influence. Focusing on the evolution of spatial pattern, we abstract five types and its corresponding three stages theoretically. Finally, recommendation of development has been made for each stage. This study undertakes certain exploration in the study of urban spheres of influence from the perspective of theory and practice, hoping to provide some references for the study in this field and other regional research.

Most of the world's cities are concentrated in coastal areas. As a special geographical component of the coastal system, island urban spatial expansion is the outcome of interactions between city development and the physical environment. This paper takes Xiamen Island, located in Southeastern China, as an example to analyze island urban spatial expansion and its determinants by combining an analysis of the literature on urban development policies, urban overall plans, population growth and industrial development, with geographical information analysis using historical maps and remote sensing photographs. Firstly, we reviewed the history of the Xiamen City development during the last 100 years, which can be divided into four periods: the embryonic modern city and early development from 1908 to 1949; administrative boundary expansion and infrastructure development from 1950 to 1979; special economic zone construction and rapid urbanization from 1980 to 2003; and Bay City construction since 2003. The dynamic changes to the coastline, island shape, built-up area, transportation, administrative division, and major land use type conversion which occurred during approximately the past 100 years were analyzed and the characteristics of the island urban spatial expansion were concluded: early expansion from a central point, followed by expansion along a section of coastline, and expansion from the coastline inland. Secondly, we discussed the potential determinants of island urban spatial expansion including administrative division adjustment, urban master planning revision, industrial development, topographical factors, coastal area reclamation, transportation expansion, and population growth. Finally, the effects of each potential determinant on island urban spatial expansion were concluded. Island urban spatial expansion is the result of a synthesis of natural and socio-economic factors which are not independent but interacting. Built-up area expansion is the major driver of island land cover and land use changes. By this paper, we hope to provide a scientific reference contributing to the rational understanding of island and coastal sustainable urbanization in China, and the world beyond.

Assessment of population carrying capacity is a key task in the reconstruction planning of areas struck by disasters, in which the precision of estimation is required. This study developed a decision-making model for estimating the population capacity of the involved townships and cities in the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake based on the assessment of the suitability for reconstruction of the areas. Through analysis, arable land resources were argued to be the critical constraint of population capacity in these areas. Then, the spatial differentiations of the post-quake development conditions across different regions were analyzed with respect to their natural environments, socio-economic development and quake damages. The expected levels of urbanization, family incomes and income structures, output levels of land, and the reliance of agricultural population on arable land were estimated by different regions. With these parameters, the population capacities of the involved townships and cities in three scenarios were estimated. The total population capacity of the entire areas is abundant compared with the actual post-quake population; however, the status of over-population substantially varies across space. It was suggested to put the emphasis of post-quake resettlement policy on those counties where earthquake had been the main causes of over-population. In the Full Recovery Scenario, three mountain counties were identified including Wenchuan, Beichuan and Maoxian, with a total over-population of about 100,000 people.

The suitability evaluation of population and settlements spatial layout in the mountainous areas is an important basis on which the scale of population and settlement after Wenchuan Earthquake is determined. Based on the statistical data of field research, this paper chooses 1264 towns in 51 counties as the scope of evaluation, selects eight indices in the evaluation index system which includes post-disaster population scale, population density, urbanization rate, the percentage of migrant workers, death rate by earthquake, the percentage of minorities, elevation-slope integrated terrain and comprehensive geological condition. Besides, this paper uses AHP supported by entropy technique and fuzzy membership function model to calculate the suitability evaluation index and then divides the disaster areas into five types: highly suitable area (area accounted for 11.03%), relatively highly suitable area (15.29%), moderately suitable area (29%), less suitable area (30.08%) and unsuitable area (14.6%). According to the result of suitability evaluation, this paper puts forward several suggestions for the reconstruction as follows: the urban system and the building of new countryside should be guided by the suitability evaluation subareas; post-earthquake reconstruction avoids zones near Longmenshan fracture and high-mountain gorge areas as far as possible; the scale of population and settlement should not exceed the capacity of resources and environment; population should be resettled as close as possible by considering adequately the heterogenicity and homogeneity of regional nationality culture characteristics; densely resettle the people at plains and hilly areas; encourage the migrant workers settle in the working place with their families voluntarily; and urban system reconstruction such as industry layout and important projects of lifeline should be guided by the spatial layout suitability evaluation.

The study on 82 surface soil pollen samples from different types of cultivated vegetations in central and southern parts of Hebei Province indicates that the pollen assemblages from farmlands in the plain have not only their own plant types, but also the pollen components from the nearby mountains. Arboreal pollen percentages and concentrations (dominated by Pinus) from farmlands in mountain area are higher than those in the plain, and it reduces gradually with the increasing distance away from the mountains. Taking Pinus pollen in Taihang Mountains as an example, its content is 20%-30%, 10%-20%, 20%-30% and below 16% respectively for the samples from the area of 0-50, 50-100, 100-150 and more than 150 km away from the east Taihang Mountains. The increase of Pinus pollen proportion in the central plain is probably related to the fohn effect. The spatial variation of AP from mountains to the plain in Hebei Province may be similar to the forests clearance by human activities in the early historical period. Shrubby pollen proportion is small both in mountains and in the plain, but their major components are different. Elaeagnaceae, Corylus, Ostryopsis and Oleaceae are common in mountain areas, while there are relatively high contents of Rosaceae and Vitaceae in the plain. Herbs content in the plain (about 60%) is 15% higher than that in mountains, among which the Cereals and Cruciferae pollen percentages are 5% and 2% higher respectively. Artemisia pollen percentage in the plain is lower than that in mountains. Since the human activities are weaker in mountains compared with that in the plain, the general trend is that Chenopodiaceae pollen increases from mountains to the plain gradually, reflecting the raising intensity of human activities. The fern spores of Selaginella sinensis in mountains are higher than that in the plain, but it still reaches to about 7% in the plain. The fern spores of Selaginella sinensis are not prone to be spread by wind, indicating that those in the surface soil of the plain may be carried by river water from mountains during the deposition of the plain.

The dust source and transporting system are two indispensable aspects in the process of loess-palaeosol accumulation. It has been proved that the dust of the Loess Plateau mainly comes from the northwestern inland gobi and desert, transported by the East Asia monsoon systems and westerlies. However, there are little researches with respect to the dust source and deposition dynamics of the upper reaches of the Huaihe River. In the present study, we investigated and collected the YPC section with high resolution in the upper reaches of the Huaihe River. The chronological frame was reconstructed by optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating and correlated with the published loess time series. By comparison of the magnetic susceptibility (MS) and grain size (GS) of loess-soil profile among YPC profile, XJN profile (western Loess Plateau) and the JYC profile (southern Loess Plateau), we find similar climate change and pedogenic process between the upper reaches of the Huaihe River and the Loess Plateau, both experienced an extreme dry and the weakest pedogenesis during the last glacial, followed by a transitional episodes from the cold-dry last glacial to the warm-humid mid-Holocene and increased pedogenesis in the early Holocene, then a most humid-warm and strong pedogenesis in the mid-Holocene, and climate deterioration and decreased pedogenesis occurred during the late Holocene. But the MS of loess-soil profile sequences in the upper reaches of the Huaihe River was much lower than those in the Loess Plateau, and the GS was much coarser than those in the Loess Plateau. Comparison of GS for these three profiles revealed that there were different dust sources, which belonged to different aeolian transporting systems. The loess in the upper reaches of the Huaihe River was a wind blown deposition of near source, while the coarser dust mainly came from loose alluvial deposits of alluvial and proluvial fans of the Yellow River. The yielding and carrying dynamics of the dust in the Huaihe River is the northeast wind prevails in the winter half year.