The driving effects of urbanization on economic growth and water use change in China: A provincial-level analysis in 1997-2011

doi:10.1007/s11442-015-1185-8

摘要/Abstract

Abstract:

As one of the key issues in China’s sustainable development, rapid urbanization and continuous economic growth are accompanied by a steady increase of water consumption and a severe urban water crisis. A better understanding of the relationship among urbanization, economic growth and water use change is necessary for Chinese decision makers at various levels to address the positive and negative effects of urbanization. Thus, we established a complete decomposition model to quantify the driving effects of urbanization on economic growth and water use change for China and its 31 provincial administrative regions during the period of 1997-2011. The results show that, (1) China’s urbanization only contributed about 30% of the economic growth. Therefore, such idea as urbanization is the major driving force of economic growth may be weakened. (2) China’s urbanization increased 2352×10⁸ m³ of water use by increasing the economic aggregate. However, it decreased 4530×10⁸ m³ of water use by optimizing the industrial structure and improving the water use efficiency. Therefore, such idea as urbanization is the major driving force of water demand growth may be reacquainted. (3) Urbanization usually made greater contribution to economic and water use growth in the provincial administrative regions in east and central China, which had larger population and economic aggregate and stepped into the accelerating period of urbanization. However, it also made greater contribution to industrial structure optimization and water use efficiency improvement, and then largely decreased total water use. In total, urbanization had negative effects on water use growth in most provincial administrative regions in China, and the spatiotemporal differences among them were lessened on the whole. (4) Though urbanization helps to decrease water use for China and most provincial administrative regions, it may cause water crisis in urban built-up areas or urban agglomerations. Therefore, China should construct the water transfer and compensation mechanisms between urban and rural areas, or low and high density urban areas as soon as possible.

Key words: urbanization, economic growth, water demand, complete decomposition model, spatiotemporal difference, water resources compensation

. [J]. 地理学报(英文版), 2015, 25(5): 530-544.

Chao BAO, Xiaojie CHEN. The driving effects of urbanization on economic growth and water use change in China: A provincial-level analysis in 1997-2011[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2015, 25(5): 530-544.

图/表 6

Year	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	1997-2011
China	30.0	27.0	44.6	30.4	33.0	31.2	32.6	31.1	35.4	24.0	33.0	33.7	29.8	32.4	31.6
Beijing	2.9	13.8	-19.7	-14.3	9.6	10.0	7.9	12.1	18.8	6.4	9.6	8.3	8.0	9.6	7.5
Tianjin	4.7	9.5	4.1	2.6	3.1	2.7	2.5	2.7	-0.9	2.2	2.1	2.1	2.0	2.1	2.3
Hebei	28.1	24.8	48.1	32.7	43.5	42.9	40.7	37.6	17.2	32.7	39.6	39.6	33.3	35.3	35.1
Shanxi	21.3	31.9	51.3	21.8	29.0	24.1	26.6	30.1	24.0	19.7	33.6	47.8	21.4	22.4	26.1
Inner Mongolia	29.3	17.5	32.0	22.4	12.0	12.1	10.7	9.9	10.0	11.9	12.8	13.5	15.1	15.6	13.7
Liaoning	10.5	-6.8	2.4	3.7	13.0	11.7	14.4	16.0	14.0	8.2	9.1	9.2	8.6	9.7	9.8
Jilin	1.9	-13.6	-10.5	-4.3	18.6	13.4	14.7	15.5	12.4	6.3	6.6	7.7	7.8	7.8	7.8
Heilongjiang	3.0	12.9	24.2	8.1	18.7	14.6	14.3	13.5	10.5	10.3	10.5	10.7	9.7	9.9	11.5
Shanghai	6.6	-21.3	4.1	29.1	7.7	0.1	0.0	0.1	26.8	4.7	6.2	6.4	4.6	5.0	6.3
Jiangsu	34.2	62.4	73.3	67.7	26.2	28.5	25.2	27.2	19.8	33.4	36.7	36.0	33.8	36.4	34.8
Zhejiang	47.7	48.0	53.7	19.1	24.4	23.5	21.6	29.7	15.0	21.6	29.1	31.4	23.7	29.2	27.0
Anhui	29.3	35.1	37.9	12.4	59.7	54.8	52.3	14.5	36.5	28.8	31.7	31.1	27.9	29.8	32.6
Fujian	33.7	36.7	29.1	27.3	24.8	24.4	22.9	25.5	45.1	24.1	27.0	27.7	24.4	26.4	27.9
Jiangxi	17.4	14.8	53.3	44.0	36.1	36.0	33.5	36.4	4.9	5.8	5.9	3.3	19.6	21.8	19.4
Shandong	9.5	22.2	18.0	16.8	19.2	24.3	28.9	30.6	27.3	25.8	29.3	28.4	27.6	30.0	26.5
Henan	27.0	12.6	22.5	19.7	35.5	32.6	27.9	27.1	30.2	25.2	29.7	32.5	28.9	30.2	28.5
Hubei	30.7	28.6	28.0	38.7	35.2	44.4	35.0	33.8	28.3	26.2	27.6	26.8	24.2	25.1	28.7
Hunan	36.5	33.3	38.2	20.2	55.6	44.9	46.8	44.7	7.1	27.4	29.3	29.6	28.0	31.2	31.4
Guangdong	29.6	26.1	11.9	10.4	19.2	15.1	16.5	16.6	19.9	23.2	29.4	28.9	21.6	24.1	21.6
Guangxi	30.7	26.8	19.5	38.3	28.6	27.0	20.9	43.7	42.9	46.7	36.5	34.0	31.3	35.0	35.0
Hainan	44.0	23.1	23.7	27.0	15.8	13.1	10.0	8.3	45.4	13.6	19.4	16.4	12.5	16.2	18.5
Chongqing	32.5	26.4	67.6	53.2	32.8	31.4	31.1	28.8	56.4	30.0	31.8	30.5	26.7	27.2	32.7
Sichuan	19.7	32.6	35.1	25.9	35.8	39.6	34.6	42.8	35.5	27.9	35.3	28.0	27.0	27.1	31.1
Guizhou	2.7	5.0	14.4	14.5	19.4	25.2	19.2	24.2	-2.5	12.1	15.7	15.7	14.3	12.6	13.8
Yunnan	37.6	49.9	67.8	37.3	38.9	35.3	40.4	38.1	25.4	29.7	33.4	29.8	29.5	27.0	33.2
Tibet	61.2	66.9	68.1	73.5	54.2	48.2	38.3	32.5	29.3	28.0	22.0	45.0	45.3	44.0	42.5
Shaanxi	39.1	29.5	55.4	30.6	33.6	34.3	20.7	25.9	10.9	20.2	19.6	23.0	21.6	22.4	23.6
Gansu	19.8	17.2	38.3	26.9	28.2	46.3	27.0	27.2	37.3	19.5	27.6	27.1	24.1	22.9	27.2
Qinghai	19.0	-9.6	-17.9	55.7	21.7	17.9	13.6	22.7	36.9	17.8	17.8	23.0	15.8	17.7	19.7
Ningxia	18.4	8.5	-13.9	2.1	35.1	32.3	33.7	32.8	14.7	18.5	18.6	19.5	17.4	19.1	19.5
Xinjiang	-9.9	6.0	-12.3	-9.8	19.6	19.4	25.5	19.1	19.2	18.7	20.6	26.8	21.2	19.0	17.2

Year	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	1997-2011
China	-141	-117	-147	-156	-195	-267	-27	-143	-150	-359	-72	-112	-176	-115	-2177
Beijing	-2.2	-1.6	-3.5	-3.0	-2.3	-2.4	-2.8	-2.2	-1.9	-2.3	-1.5	-1.0	-2.2	-1.1	-29.9
Tianjin	-0.5	-2.8	-1.5	-1.1	-0.9	-1.4	-1.4	-1.7	-2.3	-2.4	-2.7	-2.2	-2.6	-2.0	-25.5
Hebei	-5.3	-8.2	-3.0	-3.3	-2.4	-4.5	-4.9	-5.4	-13.0	-11.4	-5.2	-6.8	-10.3	-7.3	-91.0
Shanxi	2.1	3.3	8.7	-2.1	3.2	-2.2	-2.9	-5.0	-1.5	-5.9	-1.9	0.6	1.6	-8.1	-10.0
Inner Mongolia	2.7	6.3	-5.0	-8.7	-12.6	-20.9	-12.5	-24.1	-20.3	-22.1	-16.5	-18.0	-13.6	-11.8	-177.3
Liaoning	9.9	-5.3	-13.7	-3.1	-1.0	-4.1	-4.3	-3.9	-6.1	-12.3	-8.3	-11.4	-9.7	-6.6	-79.9
Jilin	6.7	-7.4	29.7	-6.7	-1.2	-3.9	-2.8	-0.6	-6.8	-12.4	-5.4	-5.4	-5.9	-6.6	-28.5
Heilongjiang	4.7	-12.4	-21.2	-2.0	-1.9	-16.8	5.6	-4.4	-6.4	-18.5	-8.8	-11.4	-17.2	-11.5	-122.3
Shanghai	-2.2	-5.1	-1.6	1.3	-0.9	-2.2	-4.4	-5.9	0.0	-3.1	-1.9	-1.8	-4.3	-2.2	-34.2
Jiangsu	-24.8	7.6	8.3	9.1	-17.5	-39.0	-37.3	-26.3	-21.6	-20.4	-12.1	-12.4	-13.6	-11.4	-211.2
Zhejiang	-3.8	-2.9	-1.3	-6.3	-8.0	-13.2	-11.3	-9.9	-12.7	-12.2	-4.7	-5.7	-7.7	-3.8	-103.7
Anhui	-8.1	4.8	-8.9	-51.0	2.1	-9.8	3.4	-12.3	-9.2	-11.2	-18.7	2.9	-13.0	-12.3	-141.3
Fujian	-11.5	-1.0	-7.0	-5.0	-6.0	-8.2	-6.6	-6.0	-5.6	-8.0	-5.8	-5.0	-9.1	-5.0	-89.9
Jiangxi	-20.2	-0.4	5.8	-3.0	-6.2	-11.4	-5.8	-2.8	-1-.6	-112.2	-16.5	-17.1	-15.8	16.2	-199.9
Shandong	-11.6	-9.6	-14.8	-9.9	-17.3	-16.2	-11.1	-14.1	-7.0	-17.4	-9.4	-11.3	-12.0	-9.3	-171.0
Henan	0.0	-0.1	-8.1	-9.4	-5.7	-21.4	5.1	-5.4	-66.2	-14.8	-1.3	-4.8	-9.5	-8.1	-149.6
Hubei	-16.3	-17.0	-7.4	-4.5	-10.4	2.2	-0.7	-4.3	-7.1	-10.3	-4.7	-7.2	-11.1	-9.2	-107.9
Hunan	-14.6	-6.6	-6.9	-11.1	-9.1	-4.1	2.3	-2.5	-20.7	-18.7	-12.6	-12.8	-15.5	-11.4	-144.3
Guangdong	-11.4	-10.1	-29.7	-18.2	-18.3	-32.3	-25.4	-24.2	-24.5	-25.0	-11.2	-6.1	-16.5	-11.3	-264.0
Guangxi	-3.8	3.1	1.5	-6.9	-2.6	-14.0	-9.8	1.7	-6.0	-9.6	-9.6	-12.6	-14.6	-9.6	-92.8
Hainan	1.5	2.4	1.8	1.5	0.5	-0.2	-0.9	-2.2	0.6	-2.9	-0.5	-1.6	-3.6	-2.0	-5.6
Chongqing	-0.3	-0.8	1.1	0.6	0.0	-0.1	0.3	0.1	0.0	1.5	1.3	0.8	0.3	-0.4	4.6
Sichuan	-6.0	-0.8	-4.2	-8.1	-3.4	-2.5	-3.6	-2.1	-8.4	-10.9	-6.7	-4.9	-10.0	-11.0	-82.7
Guizhou	-3.4	-2.9	-3.0	-3.1	-2.9	-1.6	-2.6	-2.5	-6.1	-6.8	-1.8	-3.9	-4.4	-9.1	-54.0
Yunnan	5.5	0.4	4.0	-1.5	-2.5	-1.6	-3.2	-0.3	-4.2	-4.7	-0.3	-5.7	-7.6	-5.8	-27.6
Tibet	-0.9	-0.4	1.3	-0.4	2.5	-2.1	-8.3	-3.9	-1.1	-1.7	-1.2	-2.8	-15.1	-2.5	-36.5
Shaanxi	1.5	-3.4	-0.3	-3.3	-2.2	-2.3	-0.7	-1.9	-3.4	-6.6	-4.3	-5.1	-5.2	-3.7	-40.8
Gansu	-3.3	-7.5	-4.4	-0.2	-0.1	-1.6	-1.1	-3.0	-11.7	-7.4	-1.4	-4.5	-5.3	-5.7	-57.2
Qinghai	-1.2	-1.6	-2.3	-0.3	-1.7	-0.8	-1.7	-1.3	-0.8	-2.2	-0.6	-1.3	-1.5	-1.9	-19.2
Ningxia	3.7	-4.8	-15.4	-4.7	-2.2	-8.1	-12.2	-1.1	-5.3	-5.1	-3.0	-3.3	-4.1	-4.2	-69.9
Xinjiang	-3.7	-56.9	-29.0	-32.7	-15.9	-9.5	-24.7	-19.8	-24.2	-23.4	-20.0	-14.2	-31.0	-26.4	-331.4

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Year	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	1997-2011
ΔE	586	614	732	781	925	1114	1233	1523	1900	2391	1857	1947	2411	2369	20385
P_eff	68	90	137	75	65	68	98	92	126	120	128	134	141	149	1491
I_eff	421	434	400	576	692	855	912	1170	1398	1963	1389	1448	1876	1797	15330
S_eff	97	91	195	131	169	191	223	261	376	308	340	365	394	424	3564
SI_eff	79	75	131	107	136	156	179	213	296	266	273	291	325	343	2872
U_eff	176	166	326	238	305	348	402	474	672	574	613	656	719	768	6436
ΔI	421	422	473	555	672	812	875	1095	1347	1713	1296	1350	1680	1635	14346
II_eff	342	349	318	452	540	663	703	896	1062	1481	1041	1078	1389	1322	11637
IS_eff	79	73	155	103	132	148	172	200	285	232	255	272	291	312	2709

Year	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	1997-2011
ΔW	-131	155	-93	70	-70	-256	225	75	162	11	77	72	40	93	429
EP_eff	415	405	449	441	482	514	515	590	672	758	530	514	585	529	7399
EI_eff	-391	-77	-325	-174	-330	-514	-166	-312	-251	-392	-306	-263	-326	-255	-4081
ES_eff	-155	-173	-217	-198	-221	-256	-124	-204	-260	-355	-147	-179	-219	-181	-2888
ESI_eff	-111	-53	-130	-93	-133	-171	-71	-123	-127	-186	-99	-106	-131	-106	-1641
EU_eff	-266	-226	-348	-290	-354	-427	-195	-327	-387	-541	-246	-285	-350	-287	-4530
QEP_eff	125	109	200	134	159	160	168	184	238	182	175	173	175	171	2352
ΔWU	-141	-117	-147	-156	-195	-267	-27	-143	-150	-359	-72	-112	-176	-115	-2177
ΔEI	-70.3	-29.8	-60.0	-37.9	-51.8	-66.0	-22.6	-36.3	-32.0	-41.3	-22.4	-20.0	-22.5	-16.4	-529.2
EII_eff	-50.3	-9.2	-36.0	-17.7	-31.0	-44.1	-12.9	-21.9	-15.7	-21.7	-15.1	-11.9	-13.4	-9.6	-310.6
EIS_eff	-20.0	-20.6	-24.0	-20.2	-20.8	-22.0	-9.7	-14.3	-16.3	-19.6	-7.3	-8.1	-9.0	-6.8	-218.7