Simulation of land-cover change in Jing-Jin-Ji region under different scenarios of SSP-RCP

doi:10.1007/s11442-022-1955-z

摘要/Abstract

Abstract:

How to simulate land-cover change, driven by climate change and human activity, is not only a hot issue in the field of land-cover research but also in the field of sustainable urbanization. A surface-modeling method of land cover scenario (SSMLC) driven by the coupling of natural and human factors was developed to overcome limitations in existing land-cover models. Based on the climatic scenario data of CMIP6 SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 released by IPCC in 2020, which combines shared socioeconomic paths (SSPs) with typical concentration paths (RCPs), observation climatic data concerning meteorological stations, the population, GDP, transportation data, land-cover data from 2020, and related policy refences, are used to simulate scenarios of land-cover change in the Jing-Jin-Ji region using SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 for the years 2040, 2070 and 2100, respectively. The simulation results show that the total accuracy of SSMLC in the Jing-Jin-Ji region attains 93.52%. The change intensity of land cover in the Jing-Jin-Ji region is the highest (plus 3.12% per decade) between 2020 and 2040, gradually decreasing after 2040. Built-up land has the fastest increasing rate (plus 5.07% per decade), and wetland has the fastest decreasing rate (minus 3.10% per decade) between 2020 and 2100. The change intensity of land cover under scenario SSP5-8.5 is the highest among the abovementioned three scenarios in the Jing-Jin-Ji region between 2020 and 2100. The impacts of GDP, population, transportation, and policies on land-cover change are generally greater than those on other land-cover types. The results indicate that the SSMLC method can be used to project the change trend and intensity of land cover under the different scenarios. This will help to optimize the spatial allocation and planning of land cover, and could be used to obtain key data for carrying out eco-environmental conservation measures in the Jing-Jin-Ji region in the future.

Key words: scenario of surface modeling in land cover, SSP-RCP scenarios, land-cover scenarios, spatiotemporal simulation, Jing-Jin-Ji region

. [J]. 地理学报(英文版), 2022, 32(3): 421-440.

FAN Zemeng. Simulation of land-cover change in Jing-Jin-Ji region under different scenarios of SSP-RCP[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2022, 32(3): 421-440.

图/表 9

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Land-cover type	Current value of land cover in 2020 (km²)	Simulation value of land cover in 2020 (km²)	Simulation accuracy (%)
Evergreen coniferous forest	1206	1275	94.28
Deciduous coniferous forest	2561	2801	90.63
Deciduous broad-leaved forest	20456	22931	87.90
Mixed forest	1507	1582	95.02
Scrubs	17490	19079	90.91
Grassland	32923	31153	94.62
Wetlands	3007	2879	95.74
Cultivated land	124170	121162	97.58
Built-up land	8901	9475	93.55
Bare or sparse vegetation	709	665	93.79
Water bodies	1979	1907	96.36

Land-cover type	2020	2040	2070	2100	Decadal change rate (%)
Evergreen coniferous forest	1206	1251	1291	1295	0.92
Deciduous coniferous forest	2561	2795	2953	2957	1.93
Deciduous broad-leaved forest	20456	21427	22008	22103	1.01
Mixed forest	1507	1598	1601	1617	0.91
Scrubs	17490	17667	17703	18033	0.39
Grassland	32923	32732	32281	32162	-0.29
Wetlands	3007	2736	2495	2487	-2.16
Cultivated land	124170	121692	120104	119761	-0.44
Built-up land	8901	10377	11875	11912	4.23
Bare or sparse vegetation	709	663	633	621	-1.55
Water bodies	1979	1971	1965	1961	-0.11

Land-cover type	2020	2040	2070	2100	Decadal change rate (%)
Evergreen coniferous forest	1206	1258	1295	1304	1.02
Deciduous coniferous forest	2561	2897	2957	2987	2.08
Deciduous broad-leaved forest	20456	21273	22051	22937	1.52
Mixed forest	1507	1509	1636	1864	2.96
Scrubs	17490	17604	17593	18675	0.85
Grassland	32923	32453	32217	31397	-0.58
Wetlands	3007	2679	2529	2415	-2.46
Cultivated land	124170	121502	120273	118625	-0.56
Built-up land	8901	11093	11794	12145	4.56
Bare or sparse vegetation	709	672	601	603	-1.87
Water bodies	1979	1969	1963	1957	-0.14

Land-cover type	2020	2040	2070	2100	Decadal change rate (%)
Evergreen coniferous forest	1206	1272	1315	1311	1.09
Deciduous coniferous forest	2561	2901	3011	2987	2.08
Deciduous broad-leaved forest	20456	22305	22814	25095	2.83
Mixed forest	1507	1533	1581	1524	0.14
Scrubs	17490	17502	17899	19797	1.65
Grassland	32923	32524	33107	31351	-0.60
Wetlands	3007	2632	2492	2216	-3.29
Cultivated land	124170	120601	118241	115463	-0.88
Built-up land	8901	11047	11991	12759	5.42
Bare or sparse vegetation	709	667	557	513	-3.46
Water bodies	1979	1925	1901	1893	-0.54