PDF(1669 KB)
Trends in precipitation over the low latitude highlands of Yunnan, China
FAN Hui, HU Jinming, HE Daming
地理学报(英文版) ›› 2013, Vol. 23 ›› Issue (6) : 1107-1122.
PDF(1669 KB)
PDF(1669 KB)
Trends in precipitation over the low latitude highlands of Yunnan, China
Trends in precipitation over the low latitude highlands of Yunnan, China
The precipitation regime of the low latitude highlands of Yunnan in Southwest China is subject to the interactions between the East Asian Summer Monsoon and the Indian Summer Monsoon, and the influence of surface orography. An understanding of changes in its spatial and temporal patterns is urgently needed for climate change projection, hydrological impact modelling, and regional and downstream water resources management. Using daily precipitation records of the low latitude highlands over the last several decades (1950s-2007), a time series of precipitation indices, including annual precipitation, number of rainy days, mean annual precipitation intensity, the dates of the onset of the rainy season, degree and period of precipitation seasonal concentration, the highest 1-day, 3-day and 7-day precipitation, and precipitation amount and number of rainy days for precipitation above different intensities (such as ≥10 mm, ≥25 mm and ≥50 mm of daily precipitation), was constructed. The Trend-Free Pre-Whitening Mann-Kendall trend test was then used to detect trends of the time series data. The results show that there is no significant trend in annual precipitation and strong seasonal differentiation of precipitation trends across the low latitude highlands. Springs and winters are getting wetter and summers are getting drier. Autumns are getting drier in the east and wetter in the west. As a consequence, the seasonality of precipitation is weakening slightly. The beginning of the rainy season and the period of the highest precipitation tend to be earlier. In the meantime, the low latitude highlands has also witnessed less rainy days, more intense precipitation, slightly longer moderate and heavy precipitation events, and more frequent extreme precipitation events. Additionally, regional differentiation of precipitation trends is remarkable. These variations may be associated with weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon and strengthening of the South Asian summer monsoon, as well as the "corridor-barrier" effects of special mountainous terrain. However, the physical mechanisms involved still need to be uncovered in the future.
The precipitation regime of the low latitude highlands of Yunnan in Southwest China is subject to the interactions between the East Asian Summer Monsoon and the Indian Summer Monsoon, and the influence of surface orography. An understanding of changes in its spatial and temporal patterns is urgently needed for climate change projection, hydrological impact modelling, and regional and downstream water resources management. Using daily precipitation records of the low latitude highlands over the last several decades (1950s-2007), a time series of precipitation indices, including annual precipitation, number of rainy days, mean annual precipitation intensity, the dates of the onset of the rainy season, degree and period of precipitation seasonal concentration, the highest 1-day, 3-day and 7-day precipitation, and precipitation amount and number of rainy days for precipitation above different intensities (such as ≥10 mm, ≥25 mm and ≥50 mm of daily precipitation), was constructed. The Trend-Free Pre-Whitening Mann-Kendall trend test was then used to detect trends of the time series data. The results show that there is no significant trend in annual precipitation and strong seasonal differentiation of precipitation trends across the low latitude highlands. Springs and winters are getting wetter and summers are getting drier. Autumns are getting drier in the east and wetter in the west. As a consequence, the seasonality of precipitation is weakening slightly. The beginning of the rainy season and the period of the highest precipitation tend to be earlier. In the meantime, the low latitude highlands has also witnessed less rainy days, more intense precipitation, slightly longer moderate and heavy precipitation events, and more frequent extreme precipitation events. Additionally, regional differentiation of precipitation trends is remarkable. These variations may be associated with weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon and strengthening of the South Asian summer monsoon, as well as the "corridor-barrier" effects of special mountainous terrain. However, the physical mechanisms involved still need to be uncovered in the future.
change trend / Trend-Free Pre-Whitening Mann-Kendall / daily precipitation / spatial pattern / low-latitude highlands {{custom_keyword}} /
change trend / Trend-Free Pre-Whitening Mann-Kendall / daily precipitation / spatial pattern / low-latitude highlands {{custom_keyword}} /
Alexander L V, Zhang X, Peterson T C et al., 2006. Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. Journal of Geophysical Research, 111(D5): D05109.
Brunetti M, Maugeri M, Nanni T, 2001. Changes in total precipitation, rainy days and extreme events in northeastern Italy. International Journal of Climatology, 21(7): 861-871.
Cao J, Hu J, Tao Y, 2012. An index for the interface between the Indian summer monsoon and the East Asian summer monsoon. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 117(D18): D18108.
Chen L, Shao Y, Dong M et al., 1991. Preliminary analysis of climatic variation during the last 39 years in China. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 8(3): 279-288. (in Chinese)
Ding Y, Ren G, Shi G et al., 2006. National Assessment Report of Climate Change (I): Climate change in China and its future trend. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2(1): 3-8, 50. (in Chinese)
Fang J, Zhu J, Wang S et al., 2011. Global warming, human-induced carbon emissions, and their uncertainties. Science China Earth Sciences, 54(10): 1458-1468.
He D, Li S, Zhang Y, 2007. The variation and regional differences of precipitation in the Longitudinal Range-Gorge the Region. Chinese Science Bulletin, 52(2): 59-73.
He D, Yang M, Feng Y, 1999. Study on reasonable utilization of water resources in international rivers and international region cooperation in Southwest China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 66(Suppl.1): 29-37. (in Chinese)
Hu Z-Z, Yang S, Wu R, 2003. Long-term climate variations in China and global warming signals. Journal of Geophysical Research, 108(D19): 4614.
IPCC, 2007. Climate Change 2007-The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Karl T R, Knight R W, 1998. Secular trends of precipitation amount, frequency, and intensity in the United States. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 79(2): 231-241.
Lü J, Ju J, Ren J et al., 2012. The influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation activity anomalies on Yunnan's extreme drought of 2009-2010. Science China Earth Sciences, 55(1): 98-112.
Li Y, Li D, Yang S et al., 2010. Characteristics of the precipitation over the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 106(1/2): 49-56.
Liu B, Xu M, Henderson M et al., 2005. Observed trends of precipitation amount, frequency, and intensity in China, 1960-2000. Journal of Geophysical Research, 110(D8): D08103.
Liu L, Cao J, He D et al., 2011. The interdecadal variability of heavy rainfall events in flood season over low-latitude highlands of China and associated causes. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 35(3): 435-443. (in Chinese)
Liu Y, Zhao E, Huang W et al., 2010. Characteristic analysis of precipitation and temperature trend in Yunnan Province in recent 46 years. Journal of Catastrophology, 25(1): 39-44, 63. (in Chinese)
Markham C G, 1970. Seasonality of precipitation in the United States. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 60(3): 593-597.
Oguntunde P G, Abiodun B J, Lischeid G, 2011. Rainfall trends in Nigeria, 1901-2000. Journal of Hydrology, 411(3/4): 207-218.
Peng G, Liu Y, 2009. Climatic characteristic and change of rain day for different intensities in Yunnan. Plateau Meteorology, 28(1): 214-219. (in Chinese)
Qiu D, Huang F, Yang Y, 2007. Interdecadal variability of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool. Periodical of Ocean University of China, 37(4): 525-532. (in Chinese)
Sheffield J, Wood E, 2008. Projected changes in drought occurrence under future global warming from multi-model, multi-scenario, IPCC AR4 simulations. Climate Dynamics, 31(1): 79-105.
Thomas A, 1993. The onset of the rainy season in Yunnan Province, PR China and its significance for agricultural operations. International Journal of Biometeorology, 37(3): 170-176.
Wang B, Zhao E, Zhang J, 1998. The rainfall distribution of rainy season in Yunnan influenced by the Indian Ocean surface temperature. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 18(2): 163-168. (in Chinese)
Wang H, 2001. The weakening of the Asian monsoon circulation after the end of 1970's. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 18(3): 376-386. (in Chinese)
Wang H, Wang M, 1982. The onset of the rainy season in Yunnan and its monsoon circulation characteristics. Journal of Yunnan University (Natural Sciences), 3: 11-24. (in Chinese)
Wang Y, Zhou L, 2005. Observed trends in extreme precipitation events in China during 1961-2001 and the associated changes in large-scale circulation. Geophysical Research Letters, 32(9): L09707.
Wang Z, Ding Y, He J et al., 2004. An updating analysis of the climate change in China in recent 50 years. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 62(2): 228-236. (in Chinese)
Wentz F J, Ricciardulli L, Hilburn K et al., 2007. How much more rain will global warming bring? Science, 317(5835): 233-235.
Yang Y, 1984. Computing methods on annual runoff distribution of the streams. Acta Geographica Sinica, 39(2): 218-227. (in Chinese)
Yang Y, Du Y, Chen H et al., 2011. Influence of ENSO event on rainfall anomaly over Yunnan Province and its neighboring regions during late spring-early summer. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 35(4): 729-738. (in Chinese)
Yang Y, Man Z, Zheng J, 2007. Reconstruction of the starting time series of rainy season in Yunnan and the evolvement of summer monsoon during 1711-1982. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 17(2): 212-220.
Yue S, Pilon P, Phinney B et al., 2002. The influence of autocorrelation on the ability to detect trend in hydrological series. Hydrological Processes, 16(9): 1807-1829.
Zhai P, Ren F, Zhang Q, 1999. Detection of trends in China's precipitation extremes. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 57(2): 81-89. (in Chinese)
Zhai P, Zhang X, Wan H et al., 2005. Trends in total precipitation and frequency of daily precipitation extremes over China. Journal of Climate, 18(7): 1096-1108.
Zhang Q, Singh V P, Sun P et al., 2011. Precipitation and streamflow changes in China: Changing patterns, causes and implications. Journal of Hydrology, 410(3/4): 204-216.
Zhang X, Zwiers F W, Hegerl G C et al., 2007. Detection of human influence on twentieth-century precipitation trends. Nature, 448(7152): 461-465.
National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41061010; National Science and Technology Support Program, No.2013BAB06B03; No.2011BAC09B07
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |
AI Summary
