Based on 22 sparse-distributed tide gauge records in the Northwest Pacific Ocean marginal sea, the process, characteristic and prediction of regional sea level change are discussed by the integration of the following methods. Firstly, the regularized EM algorithm (RegEM) and the Multi-taper Spectral Method (MTM) are adopted to interpret their multiscale fluctuation processes and their spatial-temporal variations. Secondly, the orderly cluster method is introduced to classify these tidal stations, and with the consideration of the space adjacent relation, we obtain five sub-regions (the coasts of Bohai Sea-northern Yellow Sea, Yellow Sea-East China Sea along Chinese coast, the East China Sea along Japanese coast, the southern East China Sea and the northwestern South China Sea). Furthermore, the Mean Generation Function (MGF) is explored to predict the medium- and long-term trends of each tide station. Finally, the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is employed to obtain regional- scale sea level change trends, sea level rise rates of the above five sub-regions from 2001 to 2030 are 1.23–1.27 mm/a, 3.30–3.34 mm/a, 2.72–2.76 mm/a, 1.43–1.47 mm/a and 1.13–1.15 mm/a respectively, and the whole region sea level rise rate is between 2.01 mm/a and 2.11 mm/a. The aim of our work is to conduct an integrated research on regional sea level change.
Stable isotopes of atmospheric water vapor reveal rich information on water movement and phase changes in the atmosphere. Here we presented two nearly continuous time-series of δD and δ18O of atmospheric water vapor (δv) measured at hourly intervals in surface air in Beijing and above a winter wheat canopy in Shijiazhuang using in-situ measurement technique. During the precipitation events, the δv values in both Beijing and Shijiazhuang were in the state of equilibrium with precipitation water, revealing the influence of precipitation processes. However, the δv departures from the equilibrium state were positively correlated with local relative humidity. Note that the δv tended to enrich in Beijing, but deplete in Shijiazhuang during the precipitation events, which mainly resulted from the influence of transpiration processes that enriched the δv in Shijiazhuang. On seasonal time-scale, the δv values were log-linear functions of water vapor mixing ratios in both Beijing and Shijiazhuang. The water vapor mixing ratio was an excellent predictor of the δv by the Rayleigh distillation mechanisms, indicating that air mass advection could also play an important role in determining the δv. On a diurnal time-scale, the δv reached the minimum in the early afternoon hours in Beijing which was closely related to the atmospheric processes of boundary layer entrainment. During the peak of growing season of winter wheat, however, the δv reached the minimum in the early morning, and increased gradually through the daytime, and reached the maximum in the late afternoon, which was responsible by the interaction between boundary layer entrainment and the local atmospheric processes, such as transpiration and dew formation. This study has the implications for the important role of vegetation in determining the surface δv and highlights the need to conduct δv measurement on short-term (e.g. diurnal) time scales.
The fourth assessment report of the IPCC highlights that the global average surface temperature is projected to increase by 1.8 to 4.0 by the year 2100 compared to ℃ current climate. Given that climate is the most important driver of the hydrological cycle, the rise in temperature could cause changes in occurrence patterns of extreme hydrologic events like streamflow droughts. An increase in frequency and severity of these events could pose serious challenges for sustainable management of water resources particular in arid regions. However, the understanding of water resources dynamics and the possible impacts of climate change on these dynamics is hindered by uncertainties in climate change models and complex hydrological responses of streams and catchments to climatic changes. Therefore observational evidence of streamflow dynamics at the local scale could play a crucial role in addressing these uncertainties and achieving a fuller reconciliation between model-based scenarios and ground truth. This paper determines spatial and temporal changes in streamflow volumes and their association with climatic factors based on the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test and ANOVA to determine possible changes in streamflow over the years and their relation to climatic factors. Streamflow is generally stochastic highlighting the importance of factoring in temporal flow variability in water resources planning. There is no clear evidence that changes in climatic variables are related to streamflow behaviour.
Göksu Delta is an important wetland where the Göksu River reaches to sea in the eastern of the town Tasucu-Ice1. The delta is classified as a Wetland of International Importance according to the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands of International Importance. The amount of fertilizers used in this area was 7200 tons in 2006. These pollutants affect the surface and groundwater quality negatively. The intensively used fertilizers and pesticides contain not only N- and P compounds but also some heavy metals. The contents of all pollutants in surface waters were determined for four different seasons between 2006 and 2008 and with these data a Geographic Information System (GIS) has been constructed by using Map Info. From the photometric heavy metal analysis, it is inferred that the excess concentration of Fe, Ni, Mn, Mo and Cu at some locations is the cause of undesirable quality for drinking purposes. The source of excess concentration of various heavy metals is the agricultural activities and fertilizers. It is determined that in all periods between 2006 and 2008 the heavy metals and other pollutants in the fertilizers and pesticides transported easily to river water with irrigation return flow. The organic pollutants, including COD, BOD, NH3 and NO3 followed the sharply increasing trends from Silifke city to Mediterranean Sea. The water quality of Göksu River is modeled and determined that the waste water discharge of 10,700 m3/day from Silifke city does not create a serious problem because of the high amount of flow rate of Göksu River.
Theoretical difficulties for mapping and for estimating river regime characteristics in a large-scale basin remain because of the nature of the variable under study: river flows are related to a specific area, i.e. the drainage basin, and are hierarchically organized in space through the river network with upstream-downstream dependencies. Another limitation is there are not enough gauge stations in developing countries. This presentation aims at developing the hydro-stochastic approach for producing choropleth maps of average annual runoff and computing mean discharge along the main river network for a large-scale basin. The approach applied to mean annual runoff is based on geostatistical interpolation procedures coupled with water balance and data uncertainty analyses. It is proved by an application in the upstream at Bengbu in the Huaihe River Basin, a typical large-scale basin in China. Hydro-stochasitic approach in a first step interpolates to a regular grid net and in a second step the grid values are integrated along rivers. The interpolation scheme includes a constraint to be able to account for the lateral water balance along the rivers. Grid runoff map with 10 km × 10 km resolution and the discharge map along the river with the 1 km basic length unit are the main results in this study. This kind of statistic approach can be widely used because it avoids the complexity of hydrological models and does not depend on the meteorological data.
A generalized, lumped-parameter ecological model PnET-CN was calibrated and validated for a subtropical coniferous plantation in southern China. PnET-CN model describes the biogeochemical cycles of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) and can assist in estimating carbon sequestration potential. For validation of PnET-CN, data from coniferous forest plantations in southern China was used. Simulated daily gross primary productivity (GPP) from 2005 to 2007 agreed well with observations (R2=0.56, S.D.=0.009). Simulations of monthly soil respiration (Rs) from 2005–2007 agreed well with Rs observations (R2=0.67, S.D. =0.03). Simulated annual net primary productivity (NPP) from 1998–2006 was 803±33 gCm-2a-1, about 4% higher than NPP observation (752±51 gCm-2a-1). Simulations of annual NEP from 2005-2007 only overestimate 9 gCm-2a-1 (4%), 4 gCm-2a-1 (1%) and 34 gCm-2a-1 (8%) compared to NEP observations, respectively. Simulated annual foliar N concentration (FolNCon) (1.09%) is 10% lower than observed monthly FolNCon (0.87%–1.58%). Simulated annual N leaching (0.26 gNm-2) is about 10% lower than leaching observation (0.29 gNm-2). PnET-CN model validation indicates that PnET-CN is capable to simulate daily GPP, annual NPP, annual NEP, monthly Rs, annual FolNCon and annual nitrate N leaching for subtropical coniferous plantations in southern China. The results obtained from the validation test revealed that PnET-CN model can be used to simulate carbon sequestration of planted coniferous forests in southern China to a high level of precision. Sensitivity analysis suggests that great care should be taken in developing generalizations as to how forests will respond to a changing climate. PnET-CN performed satisfactorily in comparison to other models that have already been calibrated and validated in coniferous planted subtropical forests in China. Based on PnET-CN validation and its comparison to other models, future improvement of PnET-CN should focus on seasonal foliar N dynamics and the effects of water stress on autotrophic respirations in subtropical coniferous plantations in southern China.
Since reform and opening up, how much contribution has China's implementation of new agricultural policy made to agricultural output? This paper is trying to establish an agricultural policy output econometric model for doing a quantitative analysis of China's new agricultural policy. The results show that China's agricultural policies on agricultural output have an average contribution rate of about 7% since 1978, which is consistent with the OECD's basic forecast. There are obvious temporal and spatial differences. Generally speaking, we can divide the contribution of agricultural policy into three periods, which are the start-up phase from 1978 to 1991 (14 years), the stationary phase from 1992 to 2002 (11 years) and the rising phase from 2003 to 2008 (6 years). In space, the contribution of agricultural policy underwent a process from the all-low in the start-up phase, the gradual increase in the stationary phase to the all-high in the rising phase. Northern and western regions are more sensitive to policies. There are three major factors that can affect the contribution of regional agricultural policies, which are the process of national industrialization strategy, terrain and the level of local finance.
Due to unique advantages in clearly understanding the interrelationship between city and its hinterland, as well as city and city, the study of urban spheres of influence is becoming highlight in regional research. This paper improves traditional field model from two aspects: the composite indicator and regional accessibility, in order to delineate urban spheres of influence more reasonably. Taking three years of central China as a case study, this paper investigates dynamic evolution of urban spheres of influence. Focusing on the evolution of spatial pattern, we abstract five types and its corresponding three stages theoretically. Finally, recommendation of development has been made for each stage. This study undertakes certain exploration in the study of urban spheres of influence from the perspective of theory and practice, hoping to provide some references for the study in this field and other regional research.
Most of the world's cities are concentrated in coastal areas. As a special geographical component of the coastal system, island urban spatial expansion is the outcome of interactions between city development and the physical environment. This paper takes Xiamen Island, located in Southeastern China, as an example to analyze island urban spatial expansion and its determinants by combining an analysis of the literature on urban development policies, urban overall plans, population growth and industrial development, with geographical information analysis using historical maps and remote sensing photographs. Firstly, we reviewed the history of the Xiamen City development during the last 100 years, which can be divided into four periods: the embryonic modern city and early development from 1908 to 1949; administrative boundary expansion and infrastructure development from 1950 to 1979; special economic zone construction and rapid urbanization from 1980 to 2003; and Bay City construction since 2003. The dynamic changes to the coastline, island shape, built-up area, transportation, administrative division, and major land use type conversion which occurred during approximately the past 100 years were analyzed and the characteristics of the island urban spatial expansion were concluded: early expansion from a central point, followed by expansion along a section of coastline, and expansion from the coastline inland. Secondly, we discussed the potential determinants of island urban spatial expansion including administrative division adjustment, urban master planning revision, industrial development, topographical factors, coastal area reclamation, transportation expansion, and population growth. Finally, the effects of each potential determinant on island urban spatial expansion were concluded. Island urban spatial expansion is the result of a synthesis of natural and socio-economic factors which are not independent but interacting. Built-up area expansion is the major driver of island land cover and land use changes. By this paper, we hope to provide a scientific reference contributing to the rational understanding of island and coastal sustainable urbanization in China, and the world beyond.
Assessment of population carrying capacity is a key task in the reconstruction planning of areas struck by disasters, in which the precision of estimation is required. This study developed a decision-making model for estimating the population capacity of the involved townships and cities in the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake based on the assessment of the suitability for reconstruction of the areas. Through analysis, arable land resources were argued to be the critical constraint of population capacity in these areas. Then, the spatial differentiations of the post-quake development conditions across different regions were analyzed with respect to their natural environments, socio-economic development and quake damages. The expected levels of urbanization, family incomes and income structures, output levels of land, and the reliance of agricultural population on arable land were estimated by different regions. With these parameters, the population capacities of the involved townships and cities in three scenarios were estimated. The total population capacity of the entire areas is abundant compared with the actual post-quake population; however, the status of over-population substantially varies across space. It was suggested to put the emphasis of post-quake resettlement policy on those counties where earthquake had been the main causes of over-population. In the Full Recovery Scenario, three mountain counties were identified including Wenchuan, Beichuan and Maoxian, with a total over-population of about 100,000 people.
The suitability evaluation of population and settlements spatial layout in the mountainous areas is an important basis on which the scale of population and settlement after Wenchuan Earthquake is determined. Based on the statistical data of field research, this paper chooses 1264 towns in 51 counties as the scope of evaluation, selects eight indices in the evaluation index system which includes post-disaster population scale, population density, urbanization rate, the percentage of migrant workers, death rate by earthquake, the percentage of minorities, elevation-slope integrated terrain and comprehensive geological condition. Besides, this paper uses AHP supported by entropy technique and fuzzy membership function model to calculate the suitability evaluation index and then divides the disaster areas into five types: highly suitable area (area accounted for 11.03%), relatively highly suitable area (15.29%), moderately suitable area (29%), less suitable area (30.08%) and unsuitable area (14.6%). According to the result of suitability evaluation, this paper puts forward several suggestions for the reconstruction as follows: the urban system and the building of new countryside should be guided by the suitability evaluation subareas; post-earthquake reconstruction avoids zones near Longmenshan fracture and high-mountain gorge areas as far as possible; the scale of population and settlement should not exceed the capacity of resources and environment; population should be resettled as close as possible by considering adequately the heterogenicity and homogeneity of regional nationality culture characteristics; densely resettle the people at plains and hilly areas; encourage the migrant workers settle in the working place with their families voluntarily; and urban system reconstruction such as industry layout and important projects of lifeline should be guided by the spatial layout suitability evaluation.
The study on 82 surface soil pollen samples from different types of cultivated vegetations in central and southern parts of Hebei Province indicates that the pollen assemblages from farmlands in the plain have not only their own plant types, but also the pollen components from the nearby mountains. Arboreal pollen percentages and concentrations (dominated by Pinus) from farmlands in mountain area are higher than those in the plain, and it reduces gradually with the increasing distance away from the mountains. Taking Pinus pollen in Taihang Mountains as an example, its content is 20%-30%, 10%-20%, 20%-30% and below 16% respectively for the samples from the area of 0-50, 50-100, 100-150 and more than 150 km away from the east Taihang Mountains. The increase of Pinus pollen proportion in the central plain is probably related to the fohn effect. The spatial variation of AP from mountains to the plain in Hebei Province may be similar to the forests clearance by human activities in the early historical period. Shrubby pollen proportion is small both in mountains and in the plain, but their major components are different. Elaeagnaceae, Corylus, Ostryopsis and Oleaceae are common in mountain areas, while there are relatively high contents of Rosaceae and Vitaceae in the plain. Herbs content in the plain (about 60%) is 15% higher than that in mountains, among which the Cereals and Cruciferae pollen percentages are 5% and 2% higher respectively. Artemisia pollen percentage in the plain is lower than that in mountains. Since the human activities are weaker in mountains compared with that in the plain, the general trend is that Chenopodiaceae pollen increases from mountains to the plain gradually, reflecting the raising intensity of human activities. The fern spores of Selaginella sinensis in mountains are higher than that in the plain, but it still reaches to about 7% in the plain. The fern spores of Selaginella sinensis are not prone to be spread by wind, indicating that those in the surface soil of the plain may be carried by river water from mountains during the deposition of the plain.
The dust source and transporting system are two indispensable aspects in the process of loess-palaeosol accumulation. It has been proved that the dust of the Loess Plateau mainly comes from the northwestern inland gobi and desert, transported by the East Asia monsoon systems and westerlies. However, there are little researches with respect to the dust source and deposition dynamics of the upper reaches of the Huaihe River. In the present study, we investigated and collected the YPC section with high resolution in the upper reaches of the Huaihe River. The chronological frame was reconstructed by optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating and correlated with the published loess time series. By comparison of the magnetic susceptibility (MS) and grain size (GS) of loess-soil profile among YPC profile, XJN profile (western Loess Plateau) and the JYC profile (southern Loess Plateau), we find similar climate change and pedogenic process between the upper reaches of the Huaihe River and the Loess Plateau, both experienced an extreme dry and the weakest pedogenesis during the last glacial, followed by a transitional episodes from the cold-dry last glacial to the warm-humid mid-Holocene and increased pedogenesis in the early Holocene, then a most humid-warm and strong pedogenesis in the mid-Holocene, and climate deterioration and decreased pedogenesis occurred during the late Holocene. But the MS of loess-soil profile sequences in the upper reaches of the Huaihe River was much lower than those in the Loess Plateau, and the GS was much coarser than those in the Loess Plateau. Comparison of GS for these three profiles revealed that there were different dust sources, which belonged to different aeolian transporting systems. The loess in the upper reaches of the Huaihe River was a wind blown deposition of near source, while the coarser dust mainly came from loose alluvial deposits of alluvial and proluvial fans of the Yellow River. The yielding and carrying dynamics of the dust in the Huaihe River is the northeast wind prevails in the winter half year.
One of the noticeable consequences of China's opening up and integration into the world economy has been an explosive demand for intellectual dialogue and knowledge exchange between China and the outside world. Despite this new demand for globalization in knowledge production, existing geographical research undertaken within and outside China has remained by and large separated because of the formidable barriers of different ideological convictions, linguistic and cultural traditions, and paradigms and practices of knowledge production. In the studies of economic geography, the gap between China and the Western world has remained so pronounced that a “bridge” or a “common ground” is badly needed (Yeung and Lin, 2003; Liu, 2009; Lin, 2009a). This situation will become self-evident when one compares the Chinese journal Jingji Dili with the English journal Economic Geography— two journals with the same title and yet totally different contents to address different audience. Against this backdrop, World Economic Geography produced by Du Debin and his associates stands out as a timely, bold, and ground-breaking contribution that fills an awkward gap existing between China and the Western world in the studies of economic geography.