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    2013年, 第23卷, 第4期 刊出日期:2013-08-15 上一期    下一期
    Research Articles
    Change of parameters of BCC/RCG-WG for daily non-precipitation variables in China:1951-1978 and 1979-2007
    2013, 23 (4):  579-594.  doi: 10.1007/s11442-013-1030-x
    摘要 ( )   PDF(40768KB) ( )  

    Parameters of weather generator BCC/RCG-WG for daily non-precipitation variables including maximum temperature, minimum temperature and sunshine hours at 669 stations in China are estimated using history daily records from 1951 to 1978 and from 1979 to 2007 respectively. The changes in the parameters for the two periods are revealed to explore the impact of climate change on these parameters. The results show that the parameters of the non-precipitation variables have experienced different changes. While the annual means and the amplitudes of the seasonal cycle show a clear change, the interannual variability, the timings of the seasonal cycles, and the temporal correlations for each variable remain practically unchanged. This indicates that climate changes in China over the last 57 years are mainly reflected in variations in the means and in the strength of the seasonal cycles. The changed parameters have implications for the stationary assumption implied in the parameter estimation and use of the weather generator for climate change studies.

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    Climate change on the southern slope of Mt. Qomolangma (Everest) Region in Nepal since 1971
    2013, 23 (4):  595-611.  doi: 10.1007/s11442-013-1031-9
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    Based on monthly mean, maximum, and minimum air temperature and monthly mean precipitation data from 10 meteorological stations on the southern slope of the Mt. Qomolangma region in Nepal between 1971 and 2009, the spatial and temporal characteristics of climatic change in this region were analyzed using climatic linear trend, Sen's Slope Estimates and Mann-Kendall Test analysis methods. This paper focuses only on the southern slope and attempts to compare the results with those from the northern slope to clarify the characteristics and trends of climatic change in the Mt. Qomolangma region. The results showed that: (1) between 1971 and 2009, the annual mean temperature in the study area was 20.0℃, the rising rate of annual mean temperature was 0.25℃/10a, and the temperature increases were highly influenced by the maximum temperature in this region. On the other hand, the temperature increases on the northern slope of Mt. Qomolangma region were highly influenced by the minimum temperature. In 1974 and 1992, the temperature rose noticeably in February and September in the southern region when the increment passed 0.9℃. (2) Precipitation had an asymmetric distribution; between 1971 and 2009, the annual precipitation was 1729.01 mm. In this region, precipitation showed an increasing trend of 4.27 mm/a, but this was not statistically significant. In addition, the increase in rainfall was mainly concentrated in the period from April to October, including the entire monsoon period (from June to September) when precipitation accounts for about 78.9% of the annual total. (3) The influence of altitude on climate warming was not clear in the southern region, whereas the trend of climate warming was obvious on the northern slope of Mt. Qomolangma. The annual mean precipitation in the southern region was much higher than that of the northern slope of the Mt. Qomolangma region. This shows the barrier effect of the Himalayas as a whole and Mt. Qomolangma in particular.

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    Hydroclimatological changes in the Bagmati River Basin, Nepal
    2013, 23 (4):  612-626.  doi: 10.1007/s11442-013-1032-8
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    Study on hydroclimatological changes in the mountainous river basins has attracted great interest in recent years. Changes in temperature, precipitation and river discharge pattern could be considered as indicators of hydroclimatological changes of the river basins. In this study, the temperatures (maximum and minimum), precipitation, and discharge data from 1980 to 2009 were used to detect the hydroclimatological changes in the Bagmati River Basin, Nepal. Simple linear regression and Mann-Kendall test statistic were used to examine the significant trend of temperature, precipitation, and discharge. Increasing trend of temperature was found in all seasons, although the change rate was different in different seasons for both minimum and maximum temperatures. However, stronger warming trend was found in maximum temperature in comparison to the minimum in the whole basin. Both precipitation and discharge trend were increasing in the pre-monsoon season, but decreasing in the post-monsoon season. The significant trend of precipitation could not be observed in winter, although discharge trend was decreasing. Furthermore, the intensity of peak discharge was increasing, though there was not an obvious change in the intensity of maximum precipitation events. It is expected that all these changes have effects on agriculture, hydropower plant, and natural biodiversity in the mountainous river basin of Nepal.

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    MODIS-based estimation of air temperature of the Tibetan Plateau
    2013, 23 (4):  627-640.  doi: 10.1007/s11442-013-1033-7
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    The immense and towering Tibetan Plateau acts as a heating source and, thus, deeply shapes the climate of the Eurasian continent and even the whole world. However, due to the scarcity of meteorological observation stations and very limited climatic data, little is quantitatively known about the heating effect and temperature pattern of the Tibetan Plateau. This paper collected time series of MODIS land surface temperature (LST) data, together with meteorological data of 137 stations and ASTER GDEM data for 2001-2007, to estimate and map the spatial distribution of monthly mean air temperatures in the Tibetan Plateau and its neighboring areas. Time series analysis and both ordinary linear regression (OLS) and geographical weighted regression (GWR) of monthly mean air temperature (Ta) with monthly mean land surface temperature (Ts) were conducted. Regression analysis shows that recorded Ta is rather closely related to Ts, and that the GWR estimation with MODIS Ts and altitude as independent variables, has a much better result with adjusted R2 > 0.91 and RMSE = 1.13-1.53℃ than OLS estimation. For more than 80% of the stations, the Ta thus retrieved from Ts has residuals lower than 2℃. Analysis of the spatio-temporal pattern of retrieved Ta data showed that the mean temperature in July (the warmest month) at altitudes of 4500 m can reach 10℃. This may help explain why the highest timberline in the Northern Hemisphere is on the Tibetan Plateau.

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    The decreasing spring frost risks during the flowering period for woody plants in temperate area of eastern China over past 50 years
    2013, 23 (4):  641-652.  doi: 10.1007/s11442-013-1034-6
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    The temperate monsoon area of China is an important agricultural region but late spring frosts have frequently caused significant damage to plants there. Based on phenological data derived from the Chinese Phenological Observation Network (CPON), corresponding meteorological data from 12 study sites and phenological modeling, changes in flowering times of multiple woody plants and the frequency of frost occurrence were analyzed. Through these analyses, frost risk during the flowering period at each site was estimated. Results of these estimates suggested that first flowering dates (FFD) in the study area advanced significantly from 1963 to 2009 at an average rate of -1.52 days/decade in Northeast China (P<0.01) and -2.22 days/decade (P<0.01) in North China. Over the same period, the number of frost days in spring decreased and the last frost days advanced across the study area. Considering both flowering phenology and occurrence of frost, the frost risk index, which measures the percentage of species exposed to frost during the flowering period in spring, exhibited a decreasing trend of -0.37% per decade (insignificant) in Northeast China and -1.80% per decade (P<0.01) in North China, implying that frost risk has reduced over the past half century. These conclusions provide important inform

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    Temporal and spatial changes of temperature and precipitation in Hexi Corridor during 1955-2011
    2013, 23 (4):  653-667.  doi: 10.1007/s11442-013-1035-5
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    This study is focused on the northwestern part of Gansu Province, namely the Hexi Corridor. The aim is to address the question of whether any trend in the annual and monthly series of temperature and precipitation during the period 1955-2011 appears at the scale of this region. The temperature and precipitation variation and abrupt change were examined by means of linear regression, five-year moving average, non-parameter Mann-Kendall test, accumulated variance analysis and Pettitt test method. Conclusions provide evidence of warming and wetting across the Hexi Corridor. The mean annual temperature in Hexi Corridor increased significantly in recent 57 years, and the increasing rate was 0.27℃/10a. The abrupt change phenomenon of the annual temperature was detected mainly in 1986. The seasonal average temperature in this region exhibited an evident upward trend and the uptrend rate for the standard value of winter temperature indicated the largerst of four seasons. The annual precipitation in the Hexi Corridor area displayed an obviously increasing trend and the uptrend rate was 3.95 mm/10a. However, the annual precipitation in each basin of the Hexi Corridor area did not passed the significance test. The rainy season precipitation fluctuating as same as the annual one presented insignificant uptrend. No consistent abrupt change was detected in precipitation in this study area, but the rainy season precipitation abrupt change was mainly observed in 1968.

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    Mass balance and near-surface ice temperature structure of Baishui Glacier No.1 in Mt. Yulong
    2013, 23 (4):  668-678.  doi: 10.1007/s11442-013-1036-4
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    The accumulation and ablation of a glacier directly reflect its mass income and wastage, and ice temperature indicates glacier's climatic and dynamic conditions. Glaciological studies at Baishui Glacier No.1 in Mt. Yulong are important for estimating recent changes of the cryosphere in Hengduan Mountains. Increased glacier ablation and higher ice temperatures can cause the incidents of icefall. Therefore, it is important to conduct the study of glacier mass balance and ice temperature, but there are few studies in relation to glacier's mass balance and active-layer temperature in China's monsoonal temperate glacier region. Based on the field observations of mass balance and glacier temperature at Baishui Glacier No.1, its accumulation, ablation, net balance and near-surface ice temperature structure were analyzed and studied in this paper. Results showed that the accumulation period was ranged from October to the following mid-May, and the ablation period occurred from mid-May to October, suggesting that the ablation period of temperate glacier began about 15 days earlier than that of continental glaciers, while the accumulation period began about 15 days later. The glacier ablation rate was 6.47 cm d-1 at an elevation of 4600 m between June 23 and August 30, and it was 7.4 cm d-1 at 4800 m between June 26 and July 11 in 1982, moreover, they respectively increased to 9.2 cm d-1 and 10.8 cm d-1 in the corresponding period and altitude in 2009, indicating that glacier ablation has greatly intensified in the past years. The temperature of the main glacier body was close to melting point in summer, and it dropped from the glacier surface and reached a minimum value at a depth of 4-6 m in the ablation zone. The temperature then rose to around melting point with the depth increment. In winter, the ice temperature rose gradually with the increasing depth, and close to melting point at the depth of 10 m. Compared with the data from 1982, the glacier temperature has risen in the ablation zone in recent decades.

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    Settlement distribution and its relationship with environmental changes from the Neolithic to Shang-Zhou dynasties in northern Shandong, China
    2013, 23 (4):  679-694.  doi: 10.1007/s11442-013-1037-3
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    In this paper, the spatial and temporal distribution of the settlement sites of six periods from the Neolithic Age to the Shang and Zhou dynasties in northern Shandong was investigated using the ArcGIS program, and the relationship between settlement distribution and environmental changes was discussed, based on the proxy records of climatic and environmental change contained in the sediments from three sections at the Shuangwangcheng site and the previous work. The results show that the climate was warm and humid and the sea level was relatively high during the period of 8000-5000 a BP in the study area, and the ancient people lived in the relatively flat (slope of <2°) areas at high elevation (20-300 m above sea level), such as diluvial tableland and alluvial plain. On the other hand, few archaeological sites in the low-lying plain in the west of the study area indicate that few people lived there during that period. This might be attributed to frequent flooding in the area. After 5000 years ago, the scope of human activity extended to the area close to the sea because the relatively colder and drier climate results in sea-level fall, meanwhile the low-lying plain in the west was occupied by the ancient people. The study area of this period was characterized by the rapid development of prehistoric culture, the intensified social stratification and the emergence of early city-states. However, around 4000 a BP, the abrupt change in climate and the increase in frequency and intensity of floods severely disrupted human activities, and eventually led to the decline of the Yueshi culture. During the Shang and Zhou dynasties, the climatic conditions gradually stabilized in a mild-dry state, which promoted the redevelopment and flourish of the Bronze Culture. The previous situation, which was characteristic of sparse human settlements due to freshwater shortage and unfitted conditions for sedentary agriculture, changed during the Shang and Zhou dynasties in northern coastal wetlands.Local residents effectively adapted themselves to the tough environmental conditions by producing sea-salt, which led to the rapid growth of human activities.

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    Spatial analysis of China’s eco-environmental quality:1990-2010
    2013, 23 (4):  695-709.  doi: 10.1007/s11442-013-1038-2
    摘要 ( )   PDF(1345KB) ( )  

    Over the past two decades in China, stress on the environment has increased continuously. This paper will assess the change in environmental quality over time, and its spatial variation using data from the statistical yearbooks of 31 provincial administrative regions in 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2010. These books provide a general assessment of the environment at the provincial level, and the three major economic regions from western to eastern China. By using the geographic information system (GIS) and SPSS, we analyzed the changing trend of China's eco-environment and calculated the changing trajectory in the gravity center of the eco-environmental quality. We conclude the following. (1) From 1990 to 2010, the rate of deterioration of the environment went down. We argue that the cause of this trend was neither the result as "the deterioration trend was under control" noticed by the government departments concerned, nor "the deterioration rate of the environment was increasingly intensified" suggested by many researchers. (2) Since 1990, the general environment has been worsening in China, but it was improved in some regions; however, the ecological deficit is still expanding and will last for a long time. (3) From western to eastern China, the deterioration rate of environmental quality was slowed down. The reasons include a good natural environment, a developed regional economy, and technology and finance in eastern China. (4) After extensive economic development in China, there are imbalances of population, economy, society, and the environment in the 31 provincial regions. The governments at all levels should play an important role in research and protecting the environment. In addition, it is imperative to implement positive measures such as controlling population, improving the environment, and promoting smart development to balance the socio-ecological system.

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    The key indicators of transboundary water apportionment based on international laws and cases
    2013, 23 (4):  710-720.  doi: 10.1007/s11442-013-1039-1
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    Transboundary water, more competitive utilization and uncertain availability under the globalization trend, the issue of its apportionment which directly impacts national benefits of each riparian state is becoming one of the important topics in the world. Water is scarce in China, the most important upstream state in Asia, and this task has to be thought over in the coming future. Based on "International Freshwater Treaties Database" (1820-2007) by Oregon State University, and publications and reports on transboundary water utilization and management since 1999, 28 indicators of water apportionment adopted in 49 international treaties and cases in 1864-2002 are divided into 6 types, the spatial and temporal characteristics of the adopted indicators are analyzed in order to find the key indicator(s) of transboundary water apportionment. The major results include: the major adopted indicators, have significant differences among 5 regions/continents, the indicators at rank first and second place in the developed region (North America and Europe) according to the adopted times are "keeping minimum water flow" and "mean annual runoff", but in the developing region (Asia, Africa and South America), the ranking order of the above two indicators is reversed; the major adopted indicators in the watersheds with insufficient water are "mean annual runoff" and "keeping minimum water flow", the ones in the watersheds with sufficient water are "keeping minimum water flow" and "maximum water intake"; the international treaties signed from the first phase to the fourth phase, the developing process shows a progress of "fewer-increasing a lot-decreasing rapidly-equation basically", the regional distribution of the treaties shifts mainly from the developed region to the developing one, especially to Asia and Africa; the major adopted indicators shifts from "keeping minimum water flow" and "mean annual runoff" in 1864-1945, to "keeping minimum water flow" and "maximum water intake" in 1946-1971, then to "hydraulic facility operation" and "mean annual runoff" in 1972-1991, and finally to "keeping minimum water flow" and "mean annual runoff" in 1992-2002, the process shows similar a loop. Finally, the key indicator on transboundary water apportionment can be determined as "keeping minimum water flow".

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    A study on scheme of soil and water conservation regionalization in China
    2013, 23 (4):  721-734.  doi: 10.1007/s11442-013-1040-8
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    Regionalization of soil and water conservation is a base for the planning of soil and water conservation in China. It can provide scientific basis for constructing healthy eco-environment and regional management and development. It makes a brief review of related regionalization of study and makes clear the concept of regionalization of soil and water conservation. In this paper, based on synthetical analysis of the characteristics of eco-environments of China, the principles, indices and nomenclature of the regionalization of soil and water conservation are proposed. Through the construction of the regionalization of soil and water conservation collaboration platform and data reporting system, combined with existing soil and water conservation research, this paper uses the top-down and bottom-up and the combination of qualitative and quantitative methods to build soil and water conservation regionalization preliminary scheme, with 8 regions, 41 sub-regions and 117 sections divided in China.

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    Spatial correlations between urbanization and river water pollution in the heavily polluted area of Taihu Lake Basin, China
    2013, 23 (4):  735-752.  doi: 10.1007/s11442-013-1041-7
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    Water pollution in the Taihu Lake Basin has been the focus of attention in China and abroad for a long time, due to its position in the forefront of urban development in China. Based on data gathering and processing from 84 monitoring sections in this heavily polluted area, this study first analyzes spatial patterns of urbanization and the distribution of river water pollution, and then uses the GeoDa bivariate spatial autocorrelation model to investigate the spatial correlation between urbanization and river water pollution at the scale of township units. The results show that urbanization has adverse impacts on water pollution, and the influence varies in different levels of development areas. The urban township units have the highest level of urbanization and highest pollution, but the best water quality; the suburban units have lower level of urbanization, but higher pollution and worse water quality; however the rural units have the lowest level of urbanization and lowest pollution, mainly affected by upstream pollution, but worst water quality. Lastly, urban and rural planning committees, while actively promoting the process of development in the region, should gradually resolve the issue of pollution control lagging behind urban life and urban development, giving priority to construction of centralized sewage treatment facilities and associated pipeline network coverage in the rural areas and suburban areas.

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    Driving forces analysis of reservoir wetland evolution in Beijing during 1984-2010
    2013, 23 (4):  753-768.  doi: 10.1007/s11442-013-1042-6
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    The reservoir wetland, which is the largest artificial wetland in Beijing, constitutes one of the important urban ecological infrastructures. Considering two elements of natural environment and socio-economy, this paper established the driving factor indexing system of Beijing reservoir wetland evolution. Natural environment driving factors include precipitation, temperature, entry water and groundwater depth; social economic driving factors include resident population, urbanization rate and per capita GDP. Using multi-temporal Landsat TM images from 1984 to 2010 in Beijing, the spatial extent and the distribution of Beijing reservoir wetlands were extracted, and the change of the wetland area about the three decade years were analyzed. Logistic regression model was used to explore for each of the three periods: from 1984 to 1998, from 1998 to 2004 and from 2004 to 2010. The results showed that the leading driving factors and their influences on reservoir wetland evolution were different for each period. During 1984-1998, two natural environment indices: average annual precipitation and entry water index were the major factors driving the increase in wetland area with the contribution rate of Logistic regression being 5.78 and 3.50, respectively, and caused the wetland growth from total area of 104.93 km2 to 219.96 km2. From 1998 to 2004, as the impact of human activities intensified the main driving factors were the number of residents, groundwater depth and urbanization rate with the contribution rate of Logistic regression 9.41, 9.18, and 7.77, respectively, and caused the wetland shrinkage rapidly from the total area of 219.96 km2 to 95.71 km2. During 2004-2010, reservoir wetland evolution was impacted by both natural and socio-economic factors, and the dominant driving factors were urbanization rate and precipitation with the contribution rate of 6.62 and 4.22, respectively, and caused the wetland total area growth slightly to 109.73 km2.

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