Scenario modelling and the risk assessment of natural disasters is one of the hotspots in disaster research. However, up until now, urban natural disaster risk assessments lack common procedures and programmes. This paper selects rainstorm waterlogging as a disaster to research, which is one of the most frequently occurring hazards for most cities in China. As an example, we used a small-scale integrated methodology to assess risks relating to rainstorm waterlogging hazards in the Jing’an District of Shanghai. Based on the basic concept of disaster risk, this paper applies scenario modelling to express the risk of small-scale urban rainstorm waterlogging disasters in different return periods. Through this analysis of vulnerability and exposure, we simulate different disaster scenarios and propose a comprehensive analysis method and procedure for small-scale urban storm waterlogging disaster risk assessments. A grid-based Geographical Information System (GIS) approach, including an urban terrain model, an urban rainfall model and an urban drainage model, was applied to simulate inundation area and depth. Stage-damage curves for residential buildings and contents were then generated by the loss data of waterlogging from field surveys, which were further applied to analyse vulnerability, exposure and loss assessment. Finally, the exceedance probability curve for disaster damage was constructed using the damage of each simulated event and the respective exceedance probabilities. A framework was also developed for coupling the waterlogging risk with the risk planning and management through the exceedance probability curve and annual average waterlogging loss. This is a new exploration for small-scale urban natural disaster scenario simulation and risk assessment.

Based on the monthly precipitation data for the period 1960-2008 from 616 rainfall stations and the phenology data of main grain crops, the spatial characteristics of drought hazard in China were investigated at a 10 km×10 km grid-cell scale using a GIS-based drought hazard assessment model, which was constructed by using 3-month Standard Precipitation Index (SPI). Drought-prone areas and heavy drought centers were also identified in this study. The spatial distribution of drought hazard in China shows apparent east-west difference, with the eastern part of China being far more hazardous than the western part. High hazard areas are common in the eastern and central parts of Inner Mongolian Plateau, the central part of Northeast China Plain, the northern part of Heilongjiang, the southeastern part of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the central and southern parts of Loess Plateau, the southern part of North China Plain, the northern and southern parts of Yangtze River Plain, and Yunnan- Guizhou Plateau. Furthermore, obvious differences in drought hazard were found both within and between different agricultural zonings.

Based on the statistics of glacier area variation measured in the Chinese Tianshan Mountains since 1960, the response of glacier area variation to climate change is discussed systematically. As a result, the total area of the glaciers has been reduced by 11.5% in the past 50 years, which is a weighted percentage according to the glacier area variations of 10 drainage basins separated by the Glacier Inventory of China (GIC). The annual percentage of area changes (APAC) of glaciers in the Chinese Tianshan Mountains is 0.31% after the standardization of the study period. The APAC varies widely for different drainage basins, but the glaciers are in a state of rapid retreat, generally. According to the 14 meteorological stations in the Chinese Tianshan Mountains, both the temperature and precipitation display a marked increasing tendency from 1960 to 2009 at a rate of 0.34℃·(10a)^-1 and 11 mm·(10a)^-1, respectively. The temperature in the dry seasons (from November to March) increases rapidly at a rate of 0.46℃·(10a)^-1, but the precipitation grows slowly at 2.3 mm·(10a)^-1. While the temperature in the wet seasons (from April to October) grows at a rate of 0.25 ℃·(10a)^-1, but the precipitation increases at 8.7 mm·(10a)^-1. The annual and seasonal climatic trends accelerate the retreat of glaciers.

One of the noticeable consequences of China's opening up and integration into the world economy has been an explosive demand for intellectual dialogue and knowledge exchange between China and the outside world. Despite this new demand for globalization in knowledge production, existing geographical research undertaken within and outside China has remained by and large separated because of the formidable barriers of different ideological convictions, linguistic and cultural traditions, and paradigms and practices of knowledge production. In the studies of economic geography, the gap between China and the Western world has remained so pronounced that a “bridge” or a “common ground” is badly needed (Yeung and Lin, 2003; Liu, 2009; Lin, 2009a). This situation will become self-evident when one compares the Chinese journal Jingji Dili with the English journal Economic Geography— two journals with the same title and yet totally different contents to address different audience. Against this backdrop, World Economic Geography produced by Du Debin and his associates stands out as a timely, bold, and ground-breaking contribution that fills an awkward gap existing between China and the Western world in the studies of economic geography.

This paper studies the effects of land cover changes on distributions and circulations of nutrients in a terrestrial ecosystem, taking Jianou Niukenglong Grassland Ecosystem Experimental Station as a case study. During a two year experiment from 1994 to 1996, the land cover types were changed from desert slopeland to grasslands, in particular, Chamaecrista rotundifolia(pers) green + Pasalum thunbergii and Glycine max var. + Pasalum thunbergii. In order to study land cover change effects on nutrients in the terrestrial ecosystem, we selected organic materials (OMs), nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), potassium (K) and aluminum (Al) to study their changes in total soil nutrient concentrations, nutrient reserves in soil, distributions and reservations of nutrients in distinct grassland communities and overall nutrient contents reserved in terrestrial ecosystem, and their circulation with land cover change. The experimental results indicate that with the increase of vegetation coverage, the total concentrations of N, P and K grow rapidly in the soil, but that of Al decreases markedly. The increases of the total concentrations of N, P and K were mainly the consequences of changes of the factors that affect soil evolution, e.g., soil moisture, and changes of soil evolution processes, e.g., weathering rate and the decrease of soil erosion. These changes were caused by land coverage growth from desert slopeland to grassland. With the change of the land cover types and the increase of land coverage, the activity of Al accelerated as well, and the vertical penetration and lateral penetration of Al have been increased. Therefore, the loss of Al within the experimental terrestrial ecosystem was inevitable, and the total concentration and reserve of Al in soil have become smaller and smaller, in spite of the growth of grass absorbing some amounts of Al. The Al reserve has increased in vegetation, but it has declined in total terrestrial ecosystem. Land cover change also affects the circulations of nutrients in the terrestrial ecosystem and for the purpose of study on nutrient circulations, we choose to study plant absorption, litter and reservation of nutrients to establish an index to indicate the situations of nutrient circulations within terrestrial ecosystems. The results indicate that in the two land cover types (two grassland ecosystems), the sequence of nutrient circulation indices are N > K > P > Al in Chamaecrista rotundifolia(pers) green + Pasalum thunbergii and P > N > K > Al in Glycine max var. + Pasalum thunbergii. On the basis of the study, we can conclude that land cover change affects both distributions and circulations in the terrestrial ecosystem, and that different changes have distinct influences on distributions and circulations. Some nutrients were affected differently in some contents.

Sampling and testing are conducted on groundwater depth and vegetation coverage in the 670 km² of the Sangong River Basin and semi-variance function analysis is made afterwards on the data obtained by the application of geo-statistics. Results showed that the variance curve of the groundwater depth and vegetation coverage displays an exponential model. Analysis of sampling data in 2003 indicates that the groundwater depth and vegetation coverage change similarly in space in this area. The Sangong River Basin is composed of upper oasis, middle ecotone and lower sand dune. In oasis and ecotone, influenced by irrigation of the adjoining oasis, groundwater level has been raised and soil water content also increased compared with sand dune nearby, vegetation developed well. But in the lower reaches of the Sangong River Basin, because of descending of groundwater level, soil water content decreased and vegetation degenerated. From oasis to abandoned land and desert grassland, vegetation coverage and groundwater level changed greatly with significant difference respectively in spatial variation. Distinct but similar spatial variability exists among the groundwater depth and vegetation coverage in the study area, namely, the vegetation coverage decreasing (increasing) as the groundwater depth increases (decreases). This illustrates the great dependence of vegetation coverage on groundwater depth in arid regions and further implies that among the great number of factors affecting vegetation coverage in arid regions, groundwater depth turns out to be the most determinant one.

After dividing the source regions of the Yellow River into 38 sub-basins, the paper made use of the SWAT model to simulate streamflow with validation and calibration of the observed yearly and monthly runoff data from the Tangnag hydrological station, and simulation results are satisfactory. Five land-cover scenario models and 24 sets of temperature and precipitation combinations were established to simulate annual runoff and runoff depth under different scenarios. The simulation shows that with the increasing of vegetation coverage annual runoff increases and evapotranspiration decreases in the basin. When temperature decreases by 2^oC and precipitation increases by 20%, catchment runoff will increase by 39.69%, which is the largest situation among all scenarios.

A statistic analysis predicting coastal change of the Yellow River abandoned delta lobe formed from 1964 to 1976 using Landsat TM imagery was conducted by calculating the coastal erosion/accumulation rates obtained from four different classic profiles and plotting the change curves of coastline with time. The studies showed that the regularity of the evolution of the coastline was very obvious after the delta lobe was abandoned. The coastal evolution can be divided into three different phases: erosion phase, transition phase and cyclical change phase. At present, the coast has evolved to the cyclical change phase. The natural coastline change cycle is 4 years between the dam and is 5 years to the west of the dam. In the cyclical change phase, the quasi-equilibrium line of the coast was located near the coastline of 1996, the current coast may recede 1.79 km to reach the natural equilibrium coastline. Therefore, some measures must be taken to protect the dam or the dam will be destroyed by the force of nature. The curves also revealed the magnitude of erosion/accumulation rates would decrease gradually with time. The results of the study offer guidance for coast protection, and proves that the evolution of silty coast actually was a cyclical change process too.

Rainfall erosivity is an important climatic factor for predicting soil loss. Through the application of high-resolution pluviograph data at 5 stations in Huangshan City, Anhui Province, China, we analyzed the performance of a modified Richardson model that incorporated the seasonal variations in parameters α and β. The results showed that (1) moderate to high seasonality was presented in the distribution of erosive rainfall, and the seasonality of rainfall erosivity was even stronger; (2) seasonal variations were demonstrated in both parameters α and β of the Richardson model; and (3) incorporating and coordinating the seasonality of parameters α and β greatly improved the predictions at the monthly scale. This newly modified model is therefore highly recommended when monthly rainfall erosivity is required, such as, in planning soil and water conservation practices and calculating the cover-management factor in the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE).

Drought is one of the most complex natural hazards affecting agriculture, water resources, natural ecosystems, and society. The negative societal consequences of drought include severe economic losses, famine, epidemics, and land degradation. However, few studies have analyzed the complexity of drought characteristics, both at multiple time scales and with variations in evapotranspiration. In this study, drought occurrences were quantified using a new drought index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), based on observed data of monthly mean temperature and precipitation from 1961 to 2013 in Henan province, central China. Based on the SPEI values of each weather station in the study, the frequency and severity of meteorological droughts were computed, and the monthly, seasonal, and annual drought frequency and intensity over a 53-year period were analyzed. The spatial and temporal evolution, intensity, and the primary causes of drought occurrence in Henan were revealed. The results showed that the SPEI values effectively reflected the spatial and temporal pattern of drought occurrence. As the time scale decreased, the amplitude of the SPEI increased and droughts became more frequent. Since 1961, drought has occurred at the annual, seasonal, and monthly scales, and the occurrence of drought has increased. However, regional distribution has been uneven. The highest drought frequency, 35%, was observed in the Zhoukou region, while the lowest value, ~26%, was measured in central and western Henan. The most severe droughts occurred in the spring and summer, followed by autumn. Annually, wide-ranging droughts occurred in 1966-1968, 1998-2000, and 2011-2013. The drought intensity showed higher values in north and west Henan, and lower values in its east and south. The maximum drought intensity value was recorded in Anyang, and the minimum occurred in Zhumadian, at 22.18% and 16.60%, respectively. The factors with the greatest influence on drought occurrence are increasing temperatures, the Eurasian atmospheric circulation patterns, and the El Ni?o effect.

To investigate the diurnal variation of summer precipitation in the Qilian Mountains in the northeast Tibetan Plateau, the hourly precipitation amount for this region during the summers of 2008-2014 are analyzed using an hourly merged precipitation product at 0.1°×0.1° resolution. The main results are as follows. (1) The spatial distribution and temporal variation of mean hourly precipitation amount and frequency are generally similar and hourly precipitations in the eastern and middle portions are larger and more frequent than that in the western portion. The high value area of precipitation intensity is obviously different from that of precipitation amount and frequency. (2) The spatial distribution of daytime precipitation is generally similar to that of nighttime precipitation, and the daytime precipitation is heavier than the nighttime precipitation. (3) The change rate of precipitation has a maximum at 20:00 Beijing time, and a minimum at 12:00. The hourly precipitation amount significantly correlated with frequency, especially for the middle and eastern portions.

According to the principle of the eruption of debris flows, the new torrent classification techniques are brought forward. The torrent there can be divided into 4 types such as the debris flow torrent with high destructive strength, the debris flow torrent, high sand-carrying capacity flush flood torrent and common flush flood by the techniques. In this paper, the classification indices system and the quantitative rating methods are presented. Based on torrent classification, debris flow torrent hazard zone mapping techniques by which the debris flow disaster early-warning object can be ascertained accurately are identified. The key techniques of building the debris flow disaster neural network (NN) real time forecasting model are given detailed explanations in this paper, including the determination of neural node at the input layer, the output layer and the implicit layer, the construction of knowledge source and the initial weight value and so on. With this technique, the debris flow disaster real-time forecasting neural network model is built according to the rainfall features of the historical debris flow disasters, which includes multiple rain factors such as rainfall of the disaster day, the rainfall of 15 days before the disaster day, the maximal rate of rainfall in one hour and ten minutes. It can forecast the probability, critical rainfall of eruption of the debris flows, through the real-time rainfall monitoring or weather forecasting. Based on the torrent classification and hazard zone mapping, combined with rainfall monitoring in the rainy season and real-time forecasting models, the debris flow disaster early-warning system is built. In this system, the GIS technique, the advanced international software and hardware are applied, which makes the system's performance steady with good expansibility. The system is a visual information system that serves management and decision-making, which can facilitate timely inspect of the variation of the torrent type and hazardous zone, the torrent management, the early-warning of disasters and the disaster reduction and prevention.

By analysis of published papers on the Yangtze estuary and hydrological and sediments data in Yangshan Harbor area, many similarities are found between Yangshan Harbor area and the Yangtze estuary. These similarities include the phenomenon of stagnating flow areas, the distributive characteristics of the highest suspended sediment concentration areas, superficial sediments and shoal bars. The stagnating flow area is the major similarity which causes other similarities. These similarities indicate that: 1) Turbidity Maximum and mouth bars in estuaries are mainly caused by the hydraulic balance of stagnating flow areas of estuaries; 2) The stagnating sand area of sands caused by stagnating flow area often locates on the narrower side of the stagnating flow area; 3) The location (or shape) of fine sediments area caused by stagnating flow area reflects the location (or shape) of the stagnating flow area. Both Yangshan Harbor area and the Yangtze estuary are the important developmental areas in the future (man-made similarity). In-depth studies on these similarities between Yangshan Harbor area and the Yangtze estuary will have momentous theoretical and practical significance.

Based on more than 300 forest sample plots surveying data and forestry statistical data, remote sensing information from the NOAA AVHRR database and the daily meteorological data of 300 stations, we selected vigor, organization and resilience as the indicators to assess large-scale forest ecosystem health in China and analyzed the spatial pattern of forest ecosystem health and influencing factors. The results of assessment indicated that the spatial pattern of forest ecosystem health showed a decreasing trend along latitude gradients and longitude gradients. The healthy forests are mainly distributed in natural forests, tropical rainforests and seasonal rainforests; secondarily orderly in northeast national forest zone, subtropical forest zonation and southwest forest zonation; while the unhealthy forests were mainly located in warm temperate zone and Xinjiang-Mongolia forest zone. The coefficient of correction between Forest Ecosystem Health Index (FEHI) and annual average precipitation was 0.58 (p<0.01), while the coefficient of correlation between FEHI and annual mean temperatures was 0.49 (p<0.01), which identified that the precipitation and temperatures affect the pattern of FEHI, and the precipitation's effect was stronger than the temperature's. We also measured the correlation coefficient between FEHI and NPP, biodiversity and resistance, which were 0.64, 0.76 and 0.81 (p<0.01) respectively. The order of effect on forest ecosystem health was vigor, organization and resistance.

The present study aims the evaluation of bio-physical characteristics towards soil-water-vegetation stress and a rule is envisaged to assess the degree of temporal changes. The digital rule for assessment is initialized through the index of land Instability (ILI) where the variance indicates the temporal instability of the pixel i.e., smallest land unit. It is assumed that the biophysical characteristic of land is in command of land-dynamics where there is no change in Land Use/Land Cover (LU&LC). The intensity map on tendency of albedo (IALB) assesses the intensity of soil erosion and water stress whereas intensity map on tendency of NDVI (INDVI) appraises the stress on vegetation. The carry-out study covers a part of semiarid Western India. Primarily remote sensing technique, which carries the digital information of land temporally and spatially, is adopted in this paper. A part of the study area is represented using two sets of IRS 1A/1B LISS-I data of March with a decadal time domain (1989-1998) as a test area. It is assumed that the soil-water-vegetation stress is maximum during summer(March-April-May) in any tropical belt and decadal data will stretch the possibility of climate as well as man-made activity over the land.

According to calculation results of ocean chlorophyll concentration based on SeaWiFS data by SeaBAM model and synchronous ship-measured data, this research set up an improved model for CaseⅠand CaseⅡwater bodies respectively. The monthly chlorophyll distribution in the East China Sea in 1998 was obtained from this improved model on calculation results of SeaBAM. The euphotic depth distribution in 1998 in the East China Sea is calculated by using remote sensing data of K490 from SeaWiFS according to the relation between the euphotic depth and the oceanic diffuse attenuation coefficient. With data of ocean chlorophyll concentration, euphotic depth, ocean surface photosynthetic available radiation (PAR), daily photoperiod and optimal rate of daily carbon fixation within a water column, the monthly and annual primary productivity spatio-temporal distributions in the East China Sea in 1998 were obtained based on VGPM model. Based on analysis of those distributions, the conclusion can be drawn that there is a clear bimodality character of primary productivity in the monthly distribution in the East China Sea. In detail, the monthly distribution of primary productivity stays the lowest level in winter and rises rapidly to the peak in spring. It gets down a little in summer, and gets up a little in autumn. The daily average of primary productivity in the whole East China Sea is 560.03 mg/m²/d, which is far higher than the average of subtropical ocean areas. The annual average of primary productivity is 236.95 g/m²/a. The research on the seasonal variety mechanism of primary productivity shows that several factors that affect the spatio-temporal distribution may include the chlorophyll concentration distribution, temperature condition, the Yangtze River diluted water variety, the euphotic depth, ocean current variety, etc. But the main influencing factors may be different in each local sea area.

Permafrost in China includes high latitude permafrost in northeastern China, alpine permafrost in northwestern China and high plateau permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau. The high altitude permafrost is about 92% of the total permafrost area in China. The south boundary or lower limit of the seasonally frozen ground is defined in accordance with the 0 ^oC isothermal line of mean air temperature in January, which is roughly corresponding to the line extending from the Qinling Mountains to the Huaihe River in the east and to the southeast boundary of the Tibetan Plateau in the west. Seasonal frozen ground occurs in large parts of the territory in northern China, including Northeast, North, Northwest China and the Tibetan Plateau except for permafrost regions, and accounting for about 55% of the land area of China. The southern limit of short-term frozen ground generally swings south and north along the 25o northern latitude line, occurring in the wet and warm subtropic monsoon climatic zone. Its area is less than 20% of the land area of China.

Based on Universal Soil Loss Equation and methods of mathematics model and GIS analysis, this study classified influence of precipitation, soil, topography and vegetation upon sensitivity of soil erosion into five different degrees which are extreme sensitivity, quite sensitivity, sensitivity, less sensitivity and no sensitivity. Assessment map of each factor was generated separately. Integrated assessment map of sensitivity of soil erosion has also been drawn by overlapping function with Arcinfo. Furthermore, the study analyzed distribution characteristics and spatial difference of sensitivity of soil erosion under special plateau environment of Tibet. According to sensitivity degree, some important controlling regions was confirmed so that departments of water conservancy, traffic management and agriculture could make scientific and reasonable decisions for their respective subject planning.

The land desertification in Xinjiang was monitored and analyzed based on RS and GIS techniques. Satellite data interpretation was adopted to obtain the general situation of Xinjiang's land desertification in assistance with the sampling method and on-the-spot investigations. Related monitoring and investigations showed that Xinjiang was facing with severe wide range land desertification, and its desertified area made up 77.08% of the total monitoring area. As for land types, the desertified farmland accounted for 1.92% of the total monitoring area, desertified woodland 4%, desertified grassland 45%, and unused land 49%. Accordingly, as for desertification degrees, non-desertified land occupied 22.92%, weak desertified land 5.69%, medium-degree desertified land 16.58%, severe desertified land 33.19% and super severe desertified land 21.61%. Finally, as for inducing factors, wind-eroded desertification made up 58.23%, water-eroded desertification 8.69%, salinization desertification 6.52% and frozen-melt eroded desertification 3.64%. Xinjiang's land desertification tended to get worse and the harnessing mission remained hard.

A stochastic model for daily precipitation simulation in China was developed based on the framework of a 'Richardson-type' weather generator that is an important tool in studying impacts of weather/climate on a variety of systems including ecosystem and risk assessment. The purpose of this work is to develop a weather generator for applications in China. The focus is on precipitation simulation since determination of other weather variables such as temperature is dependent on precipitation simulation. A framework of first order Markov Chain with Gamma Distribution for daily precipitation is adopted in this work. Based on this framework, four parameters of precipitation simulation for each month at 672 stations all over China were determined using daily precipitation data from 1961 to 2000. Compared with previous works, our estimation for the parameters was made for more stations and longer observations, which makes the weather generator more applicable and reliable. Spatial distributions of the four parameters are analyzed in a regional climate context. The seasonal variations of these parameters at five stations representing regional differences are discussed. Based on the estimated monthly parameters at 672 stations, daily precipitations for any period can be simulated. A 30-year simulation was made and compared with observations during 1971-2000 in terms of annual and monthly statistics. The results are satisfactory, which demonstrates the usefulness of the weather generator.

Water resources in the arid land of Northwest China mainly derive from snow and glacier melt water in mountainous areas. So the study on onset, cessation, length, temperature and precipitation of snowmelt period is of great significance for allocating limited water resources reasonably and taking scientific water resources management measures. Using daily mean temperature and precipitation from 8 mountainous weather stations over the period 1960?2010 in the arid land of Northwest China, this paper analyzes climate change of snowmelt period and its spatial variations and explores the sensitivity of runoff to length, temperature and precipitation of snowmelt period. The results show that mean onset of snowmelt period has shifted 15.33 days earlier while mean ending date has moved 9.19 days later. Onset of snowmelt period in southern Tianshan Mountains moved 20.01 days earlier while that in northern Qilian Mountains moved only 10.16 days earlier. Mean precipitation and air temperature increased by 47.3 mm and 0.857℃ in the mountainous areas of Northwest China, respectively. The precipitation of snowmelt period increased the fastest, which is observed in southern Tianshan Mountains, up to 65 mm, and the precipitation and temperature in northern Kunlun Mountains increased the slowest, an increase of 25 mm and 0.617℃, respectively, while the temperature in northern Qilian Mountains increased the fastest, increasing by 1.05℃. The annual runoff is also sensitive to the variations of precipitation and temperature of snowmelt period, because variation of precipitation induces annual runoff change by 7.69% while change of snowmelt period temperature results in annual runoff change by 14.15%.

This study is focused on indexes for the rice chilling injury in Heilongjiang Province during 1960-2009. Firstly, we compared a new derived climate data weighted by rice planting density with the traditional method, and found that the new one is more reasonable to assess the impact of climate change on crop yields. Considering the frequency and intensity of rice chilling in the province, secondly, chilling indexes defined by meteorological, national and international levels were assessed. The result showed that the meteorological standards were suitable for the delayed-type injury, while the international one, so-called sum of Growing Degree Day below threshold (GDD_n-), characterized best the sterile-type chilling injury for rice. The explanation ability of the rice yield time series model including both injury types as two independent variables reached approximately 92% (p < 0.05). Finally, we concluded that the contribution rates of human and weather factors to rice yields are about 87.2% and 12.8% respectively, and as light increasing trend for sterile-type chilling injury was found during heading to flowing period in recent years, indicating a high chilling risk for rice planting in Heilongjiang Province in the future global warming.

Recently,important land use changes have occurred in the Black Sea coastal regions of Ístanbul due to urban growth and population increases.The objective of this study was to determine changes in land use in the Black Sea coastal regions of?stanbul between 1987 and 2007.Landsat 30 m satellite images from 1987 and 2007 are used in the study.The study area is 1000 m in width from the coastline to the land and the study has been carried out using the controlled classification method to classify areas into residential,agricultural, forest,bare land,brush/grassland,and lake/pond land classes.Land use changes between 1987 and 2007 were analysed in detail.Residential areas of the Black Sea coastal regions of Ístanbul increased by 122%over the two decades.Also an increase of 55%in agriculture areas was observed,while there were decreases of 26%in forest areas and 15%in free land. A 21%increase in the area of brush and grassland took place.Furthermore 79%of the study area was covered by residential areas in 2007.It is probable that pressure on the Ístanbul coastal regions will continue due to migraton and rapid urbanization.Therefore,Istanbul's Black Sea coastal regions should be maintained using a sustainable coastal management plan.

Runoff at the three time scales (non-flooding season, flooding season and annual period) was simulated and tested from 1958 to 2005 at Tangnaihai (Yellow River Source Region: YeSR), Zhimenda (Yangtze River Source Region: YaSR) and Changdu (Lancang River Source Region: LcSR) by hydrological modeling, trend detection and comparative analysis. Also, future runoff variations from 2010 to 2039 at the three outlets were analyzed in A1B and B1 scenarios of CSIRO and NCAR climate model and the impact of climate change was tested. The results showed that the annual and non-flooding season runoff decreased significantly in YeSR, which decreased the water discharge to the midstream and downstream of the Yellow River, and intensified the water shortage in the Yellow River Basin, but the other two regions were not statistically significant in the last 48 years. Compared with the runoff in baseline (1990s), the runoff in YeSR would decrease in the following 30 years (2010-2039), especially in the non-flooding season. Thus the water shortage in the midstream and downstream of the Yellow River Basin would be serious continuously. The runoff in YaSR would increase, especially in the flooding season, thus the flood control situation would be severe. The runoff in LcSR would also be greater than the current runoff, and the annual and flooding season runoff would not change significantly, while the runoff variation in the non-flooding season is uncertain. It would increase significantly in the B1 scenario of CSIRO model but decrease significantly in B1 scenario of NCAR model. Furthermore, the most sensitive region to climate change is YaSR, followed by YeSR and LcSR.

The expansion of agriculture is posited as one of the main dynamics of forest landscape change globally, and the robust modeling of these processes is important for policy as well as academic concern. This paper concerns a relatively small area of Yiluo River catchment where considerable attention has been paid to slow down the process of the expansion of agriculture into the remaining natural forests. In the present study, we reconstructed the former forest landscape structure and elucidated the landscape change during a period of about 15 years. Three sets (1987, 1996 and 2002) of maps derived from Landsat-5 images were used for analyses. The result showed that there was a decrease in the area of the forest landscape from 995.60 km² in 1987 to 650.50 km² in 2002. Then we examined the degree to which forest landscape conversion could be attributed to a set of factors identified as significant at broader scales, namely topography, distribution of the village clusters (centroids), distance from villages (centroids), and distance from forest edge (1987). By using “spatial analysis” in Arc/gis 8.3, the correlation between forest landscape change and driving factors was constructed. This study found that forest landscape conversion in this region was largely explained by elevation, slope and proximity to village.

The mouth bar in the Yangtze estuarine waterways has a significant influence on navigational transport within the estuary,flood discharge and construction of the Shanghai Port.In this paper the morphological evolution and mechanisms of mouth bar formation of the Yangtze estuarine waterways are studied by analyzing hundreds of years of historical data and the latest profile maps of some or the main mouth bar channels in the Yangtze Estuary. The results are shown as follows:The mouth bars in the North Branch have moved gradually from outside the mouth to the inside and formed a huge sand bar.In the North Channel,the head of the mouth bar has migrated about 30 kilometers downstream,and a channel bar has been developing since 2001.Two mouth bar tops,which always existed in the North Passage, disappeared in 2010.The head of the mouth bar in the South Passage has migrated downstream about 14 km and the number of tops increased at first but is reduced to only one now. According to the results,we can conclude that the evolution of the mouth bars differs depending on their location.In the North Branch it is directly related to large-scale reclamation in Chongming Island,but in the North Passage it has a close relationship with regulation of the Yangtze Estuary Deepwater Channel.However,the evolution of mouth bars in the North Channel and South Passage is not only connected with the Yangtze Estuary Deepwater Channel Regulation Project,but also with the reclamation in the East Hengsha Shoal and the closure of the Qingcaosha Reservoir.

Environments in arid and semiarid regions are extremely sensitive to climate changes.High wind activity in these regions has resulted in an extensively developed arid geomorphology,but past environmental changes are poorly understood because of the absence of relatively high-resolution proxies.The accumulation characteristics of nebkhas, which have developed extensively in these regions,can be used as a method of reconstructing environmental changes.Here we summarized recent advances in research on the formation,development,and sediment characteristics of nebkhas and their significance to environmental changes in arid and semiarid regions.Based on the studies of our colleagues, we suggested that research on nebkha formation can provide distinct clues about environmental changes in arid and semiarid regions;however,continued studies are needed.

Actual evapotranspiration is a key process of hydrological cycle and a sole term that links land surface water balance and land surface energy balance.Evapotranspiration plays a key role in simulating hydrological effect of climate change,and a review of evapotranspiration estimation methods in hydrological models is of vital importance.This paper firstly summarizes the evapotranspiration estimation methods applied in hydrological models and then classifies them into the integrated converting methods and the classification gathering methods by their mechanism.Integrated converting methods are usually used in hydrological models and two differences exist among them:one is in the potential evaporation estimation methods,while the other in the function for defining relationship between potential evaporation and actual evapotranspiration.Due to the higher information requirements of the Penman-Monteith method and the existing data uncertainty,simplified empirical methods for calculating potential and actual evapotranspiration are widely used in hydrological models. Different evapotranspiration calculation methods are used depending on the complexity of the hydrological model,and importance and difficulty in the selection of the most suitable evapotranspiration methods is discussed.Finally,this paper points out the prospective development trends of the evapotranspiration estimating methods in hydrological modeling.

The 2012 Annual Meeting of the Geographical Society of China(GSC)was held on October 12-14 in Henan University,Kaifeng,Henan Province.The meeting was co-sponsored by the GSC and Henan Association of Science and Technology,and co-hosted by Henan University with a history of 100 years and Henan University of Economics and Law.A total of around 1300 geographers throughout China participated in this meeting and more than 800 papers including 560 oral presentations were submitted and discussed.During the meeting,20 young scholars were prized for their excellent papers presented to this annual meeting.

With the classification data covering American land-use/land-cover (LUCC) with 30 m resolution from the project of National Land Cover Data (NLCD), we normalized them and made their resolution changed into 1 km ×1 km, created the data of American land-use grade and analyzed the spatial distribution and features of American LUCC as well as the influence of population and altitude on the land-use grade in light of methods of sampling analysis and correlation study. Based on the analysis, we concluded that forestry and grassland, accounting for 71.24% of the whole country, has taken the main part of American land cover, and besides, construction and arable land has occupied 19.22% of the total land, the rest of land cover types, including water area, wetland and underdeveloped land, is 9.54% of the country's total. The developing potential of American land resources is enormous with less destroyed and disturbed ecological environment. Although, in some sense, the population and altitude influence the spatial variation of American land-use grade respectively, the influence of spatial variation of altitude and population density on that of land-use grade is not significanct.