This study analyses spatial variability and trends in annual and monthly precipitation (amount and concentration) based on data from 42 stations in mainland Portugal during the period 1960-2011. Relationships between certain geographic variables (elevation, latitude and longitude) and precipitation variability were also determined in order to check for specific dependencies and spatial patterns in precipitation distribution, concentration and changing trends. Trends and relationships have been analysed using both parametric and non-parametric tests. The results showed that annual precipitation had decreased in all stations and that this trend is statistically significant for most of the time series (70% of the stations showed negative trends with at least a 0.1 significance level). The Annual Precipitation Concentration Index revealed an opposite behaviour pattern, suggesting that even though the annual trend for precipitation amount was negative overall, more than half of the udometric stations registered a more marked seasonality for precipitation during the period 1960-2011. However, only one station showed statistical significant time trend. Regarding the influence of geographical features, latitude is the most important variable, governing spatial distribution and variations in annual precipitation as well as its intra-annual changeability. These important changes in precipitation, involving both amount and concentration, may have severe consequences for ecosystems and societies.

Proxy records of the oxygen isotopic composition of meteorological precipitation (δ¹⁸O_p) preserved in archives such as ice cores, lacustrine carbonates and stalagmite calcite are important for paleoclimatic studies. Therefore, knowledge of the variations and controlling mechanisms of modern δ¹⁸O_p on different time scales is necessary. Here, we investigate the linear correlations between δ¹⁸O_p and corresponding temperature and precipitation on monthly and inter-annual timescales, using data from the Urumqi (1986-2003) and Hotan stations of the Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP), and δ¹⁸O data from 4 ice cores in the adjacent Tianshan Mountains. Consistent with previous reported results, modern δ¹⁸O_p variations on a seasonal time scale in the Tianshan region are mainly controlled by a ‘temperature effect’ (indicated by a significant positive correlation between δ¹⁸O_p and temperature), with more positive δ¹⁸O_p values occurring in summer. However, on an inter-annual timescale, there is a weak inverse correlation between weighted average annual δ¹⁸O_p and annual average temperature at Urumqi station. This finding is supported by the inversely varying trends of δ¹⁸O data from 4 ice cores in the central and eastern Tianshan Mountains compared to annual average temperatures in the same region during the past 40-50 years. The data from Urumqi station and the 4 ice cores demonstrate that there is inverse correlation between δ¹⁸O_p and temperature on inter-annual to decadal time scales. Analysis of water vapor sources and pathways for the warm year of 1997 and the cold year of 1988 reveal that relatively more water vapor for the Tianshan region was derived from long-distance transport from high-latitude sources than during the warm year of 1997; and that more water vapor was transported from more proximal sources from mid- to low-latitude areas during the cold year of 1988. In addition, the δ¹⁸O_p values are more negative in the high latitude areas than those in mid- to low-latitude areas in the Eurasian continent at the upper wind direction of Tianshan Mountains region, according to the weighted averaged warm season (May to September) δ¹⁸O_p values for 14 GNIP stations in the years 1997 and 1988. Due to the distribution of δ¹⁸O_p within the Eurasian continent, the relative shift of water vapor sources between warm and cold years convincingly explains the observed variations of δ¹⁸O_p in the Tianshan Mountains region. Therefore, we conclude that variations in δ¹⁸O_p in this region are mainly controlled by changes in water vapor sources which are ultimately caused by northward and southward shifts in the Westerly circulation.

Land function change has been the focus of scientific research and policy making worldwide. Agricultural development and land use demand at present in China shared common characteristics with the countries such as Japan, South Korea, USA, and European developed countries, which have undergone cultivated land function transition. Whether cultivated land function transition occurred is of significance for land change science and cultivated land protection in China. However, there has been no explicit methodology for cultivated land function change research. This paper firstly presents a methodology by integrating policy development analysis based on the normative connotation of cultivated land function or termed cultivated land function demand and quantitative assessment based on the positive connotation of cultivated land function or termed cultivated land function supply. Then, cultivated land function transition is diagnosed by analyzing cultivated land function change in 1949-2012. Results show that cultivated land function transition overall occurred in 2006. Specifically, the normative cultivated land function or cultivated land function demand fragmented into seven types in 1985 and upgraded in 2004. Total value of the positive cultivated land function or cultivated land function supply turned to rise with an increase from 2.40 to 2.45 as the coefficients of variability (CV) of the value of the seven functions decreased from 2.94 to 2.29 in 2006-2012. The two-year gap between these two aspects of transition mainly resulted from the time lag effects of policy implementation. In the process of the transition, co-ordination and malposition of supply and demand of cultivated land function coexisted with supply lag and function morphology distortion. Considering the transition experiences in the developed countries mentioned above, suggestions on multifunctional cultivated land management are proposed. Moreover, route of land use transition research is discussed.

The Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-S) model is a widely used method to simulate land use change. An ordinary logistic regression model was integrated into the CLUE-S model to identify explanatory variables without considering the spatial autocorrelation effect. Using image-derived maps of the Changsha- Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration, the CLUE-S model was integrated with the ordinary logistic regression and autologistic regression models in this paper to simulate land use change in 2000, 2005 and 2009 based on an observation map from 1995. Significant positive spatial autocorrelation was detected in residuals of ordinary logistic models. Some variables that were much more significant than they should be were selected. Autologistic regression models, which used autocovariate incorporation, were better able to identify driving factors. The Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (ROC) values of autologistic regression models were larger than 0.8 and the pseudo R² values were improved, compared with results of logistic regression model. By overlapping the observation maps, the Kappa values of the ordinary logistic regression model (OL)-CLUE-S and autologistic regression model (AL)-CLUE-S models were larger than 0.75. The results showed that the simulation results were indeed accurate. The Kappa fuzzy (Kfuzzy) values of the AL-CLUE-S models (0.780, 0.773, 0.606) were larger than the values of the OL-CLUE-S models (0.759, 0.760, 0.599) during the three periods. The AL-CLUE-S models performed better than the OL-CLUE-S models in the simulation of land use change. The results showed that it is reasonable to integrate autocovariates into CLUE-S models. However, the Kfuzzy values decreased with prolonged duration of simulation and the maximum range of time was not discussed in this paper.

Based on remote sensing data of the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) in the years of 1991, 2001 and 2008, the paper built an index system of land use potential restraint factors in YRD, according to geological condition, terrain condition, water area, natural reserve area and basic farmland, and evaluated construction land potential based on the platform of GIS spatial analysis model. The results showed that: (1) the construction land increased rapidly since 1991 and reached 24,951.21 km² in 2008, or 21.27% of the total area. Among all the cities in the YRD, Shanghai took the greatest percentage, followed by Jiangsu and Zhejiang. Spatially, areas where government departments are located became the growth center of construction land. Prefecture-level cities were the fastest growth region and the changing trend showed circle layered characteristics and significant increase with Shanghai and Suzhou as the core. (2) The higher the quality of construction land potentials (CLP), the smaller the number of CLP units. High sensitive area accounted for the largest percentage (40.14%) among all types of constraint regions and this was followed by medium sensitive region (31.53%) of the whole region. (3) The comprehensive CLP in the YRD was 24,989.65 km², or 21.76% of the total YRD. The land use potential showed spatial distribution imbalance. CLP of Zhejiang was obviously larger than that of Jiangsu. CLP was insufficient in regional central city. Moreover, CLP in the YRD formed a circle layered spatial pattern that increasingly expanded centered in prefecture-level cities. Low potential area expanded from north to south. High potential area was mainly located in south YRD. Areas with zero potential in the YRD formed a northwest-southeast “Y-shaped” spatial pattern in north Hangzhou Bay. (4) CLP per capita in YRD was 0.045 ha/person and also unevenly distributed. Some 25.57% of the study units at county level nearly had no construction land and 8.24% of the units had CLP per capita below the national average level. CLP per capita in less than 25% of the county-level units was larger than the YRD average level, which were mainly located in Zhejiang. Therefore, research on the construction potential area in YRD was favorable for analysis of the development status and potential space of this region under the background of rapid urbanization and industrialization.

Land suitability assessment (LSA) is one of the key processes of land-use planning. Given its particularity of land suitability assessment for post-earthquake reconstruction, this paper takes into account geological conditions, risk of disasters, water and land resources conditions, and eco-environmental suitability and emphasizes safety factor in the assessment. Taking the April 20, 2013 Mw 6.6 Lushan earthquake as a case, this assessment establishes factors system, uses GIS spatial analysis techniques and data of geology, topography, resources, and eco-environment to evaluate the land suitability for reconstruction. The results show that: (1) the spatial characteristics of land suitability for reconstruction at grid scale and administrative scale manifest that most of the piedmont plains in the east are suitable for large-scale population aggregation, industrialization, and urbanization development; and (2) for the six hard-hit counties, Mingshan is the preferred region for large-scale post-earthquake reconstruction due to its high construction index and suitable land per capita, and some plots of land in the valleys could be selected for in-situ small-scale reconstruction in Lushan. The land suitability assessment for post-earthquake reconstruction would be significant to making sound reconstruction planning for achieving sustainable regional development in the Mw 6.6 Lushan earthquake stricken area. This study could be used as a reference for the regions with similar events.

About 80% of global wetland resources are degrading or disappearing; thus the wetland ecosystem has become one of the most seriously threatened ecosystems in the world. As an area sensitive to global changes and acting as a security barrier for the Asian ecosystem, the Tibetan Plateau has about 13.19×10⁴ km² of wetlands of special significance within China. With the increasing application of remote sensing technology to wetland research, Tibetan Plateau wetland research has entered a period of rapid development. This paper summarizes the remote sensing research literature of the Tibetan Plateau wetlands from 1992 to 2014, and is intended to provide references for future research into the wetlands of the Tibetan Plateau. We have reviewed monitoring methods, research topics, and existing problems. Our review has revealed the following characteristics: (1) Over the past 40 years, the research paradigm of the Tibetan Plateau wetlands has undergone dynamic changes in the monitoring of wetland areas, landscape patterns and the eco-environment based on remote sensing technology. Attention has also been focused on constructing models with an ecological system perspective and analyzing three patterns of change trends within the Tibetan Plateau wetlands. (2) The results of Tibetan Plateau wetland research based on remote sensing were as follows: (a) between 1970 and 2006, the Tibetan Plateau wetland area decreased overall at a rate of 0.23%/a, and the landscape diversity declined at a rate of 0.17%/a; (b) by contrast, between 1976 and 2009, the lake area of the inland river basins in the Tibetan Plateau increased at a rate of 0.83%/a; and (c) the change trend in the Tibetan Plateau wetlands was controlled by climate change. Current problems relating to remote sensing (RS)-based research in the Tibetan Plateau wetlands are computer interpretation accuracy and the processing precision of cloud removal, and the lack of a comprehensive overview of the Tibetan Plateau wetland system. Finally, based on the review, some key activities for future study have been proposed, as follows: (1) Strengthening the integration of the Tibetan Plateau wetland research with remote sensing research; (2) discussing the response and adaptation mechanisms of the Tibetan Plateau wetland ecosystem within the context of global change; (3) strengthening the integration of remote sensing (RS), geographic information system (GIS), and global positioning system (GPS), and promoting the construction of a Tibetan Plateau wetland information platform.

Traditional spatial clustering methods have the disadvantage of “hardware division”, and can not describe the physical characteristics of spatial entity effectively. In view of the above, this paper sets forth a general multi-dimensional cloud model, which describes the characteristics of spatial objects more reasonably according to the idea of non-homogeneous and non-symmetry. Based on infrastructures’ classification and demarcation in Zhanjiang, a detailed interpretation of clustering results is made from the spatial distribution of membership degree of clustering, the comparative study of Fuzzy C-means and a coupled analysis of residential land prices. General multi-dimensional cloud model reflects the integrated characteristics of spatial objects better, reveals the spatial distribution of potential information, and realizes spatial division more accurately in complex circumstances. However, due to the complexity of spatial interactions between geographical entities, the generation of cloud model is a specific and challenging task.

In this paper, the monthly precipitation and temperature data collected at 7 stations in the Ili River Basin from 1961 to 2007 were analyzed by means of simple regression analysis, running mean, db6 wavelet function and Mann-Kendall test. This study revealed the characteristics of climate change and abrupt change points of precipitation and temperature during different time scales in the Ili River Basin within the past 50 years. The results showed that the precipitation increased from the mid-1980s until 2000 and has continued to increase at a smaller magnitude since 2000. Over the studied period, the precipitation increased significantly during the summer and winter months. The temperature increased greatly in the late 1980s, and has continued to show an increasing trend from the year 2000 to present. The temperature increases were most significant during the summer, autumn and winter months. In terms of different geographies, the temperature increase was significant during the winter in the plains and hilly regions; the increase was also significant during autumn in the intermontane basins. The climate change trends in the Ili River Basin were consistent with the changing trends of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the plateau monsoon.

Glaciers are one of the most important land covers in alpine regions and especially sensitive to global climate change. Remote sensing has proved to be the best method of investigating the extent of glacial variations in remote mountainous areas. Using Landsat thematic mapping (TM) and multi-spectral-scanner (MSS) images from Mt. Qomolangma (Everest) National Nature Preserve (QNNP), central high Himalayas for 1976, 1988 and 2006, we derived glacial extent for these three periods. A combination of object-oriented image interpretation methods, expert knowledge rules and field surveys were employed. Results showed that (1) the glacial area in 2006 was 2710.17 ± 0.011 km2 (about 7.41% of the whole study area), and located mainly to the south and between 4700 m to 6800 m above sea level; (2) from 1976 to 2006, glaciers reduced by 501.91 ± 0.035 km2 and glacial lakes expanded by 36.88 ± 0.035 km2; the rate of glacier retreat was higher in sub-basins on the southern slopes (16.79%) of the Himalayas than on the northern slopes (14.40%); most glaciers retreated, and mainly occurred at an elevation of 4700–6400 m, and the estimated upper limit of the retreat zone is between 6600 m and 6700 m; (3) increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation over the study period are the key factors driving retreat.

Based on the temporal-spatial distribution features of ancient settlement sites from the middle and late Neolithic Age to the Han dynasty in the Chaohu Lake Basin of Anhui Province, East China, using the methods of GIS combined with the reconstructed paleoenvironment by the records of lake sediment since Holocene, the transmutation of ancient settlements with response to environmental changes in this area has been discussed. Studies show that the main feature of transmutation of ancient settlements from the middle and late Neolithic Age to the Han Dynasty was that the distribution of settlements in this area changed from high altitudes to low ones and kept approaching the Chaohu Lake with the passage of time. These could be the response to the climate change from warm-moist to a relatively warm-dry condition during the middle Holocene, leading to the lake level fluctuations. The large area of exposed land provided enough space for human activities. These indicate that the above changes in geomorphologic evolution and hydrology influenced by climate conditions affected the transmutation of ancient settlements greatly. The distribution pattern of settlement sites was that the number of sites in the west was more than in the east. This pattern may be related to the geomorphologic conditions such as frequent channel shifting of the Yangtze River as well as flood disasters during the Holocene optimum. Therefore, climate change was the inducement of the transmutation of ancient settlements in the Chaohu Lake Basin, which exerted great influence on the distribution, expansion and development of the ancient settlements.

As one of the most typical wetlands,marsh plays an important role in hydrological and economic aspects,especially in keeping biological diversity.In this study,the definition and connotation of the ecological water storage of marsh is discussed for the first time,and its distinction and relationship with ecological water requirement are also analyzed.Furthermore,the gist and method of calculating ecological water storage and ecological water requirement have been provided,and Momoge wetland has been given as an example of calculation of the two variables.Ecological water use of marsh can be ascertained according to ecological water storage and ecological water requirement.For reasonably spatial and temporal variation of water storage and rational water resources planning,the suitable quantity of water supply to marsh can be calculated according to the hydrological conditions,ecological demand and actual water resources.

With the degeneration of environment and acceleration of urbanization,human environment has attracted great attention worldwide.This paper sets up the Human Settlements Environment Index(HEI) model and evaluates the natural environment suitability for Human Settlements in China based on GIS technology.The results show that the HEI of China decreases from southeast to northwest in general,HEI is significantly correlated with population density at grid size and the correlation coefficient(r) between them reaches 0.93,which indicates that natural environment suitability for Human Settlements has a significant influence on population distribution.Most people in China mainly concentrate in areas with high natural environment suitability.The total suitable area is 430.47×104 km2,which accounts for nearly 45% of the total land area in China,while the proportion of people living in the area reaches 96.56%.With a population density of 18 people per square kilometer,the critical area is the transitional region for people to live in China.The critical area covers 225.11×104 km2 with a population of 41.12 million.The non-suitable area covers 304.42×104 km2 with a population of only 2.49 million.

Acid rain has been recognized as a serious environmental problem in China since the 1980s,but little is known about the effects of the climatic change in regional precipitation on the temporal and spatial variability of severe acid rain.We present the effects of the regional precipitation trend change on the area and intensity of severe acid rain in southern China,and the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of SO2 and NO2 concentrations are analyzed on the basis of SO2 and NO2 column concentration data.The results are as follows.(1) The emission levels of SO2 and NO2 have reached or passed the precipitation scavenging capacity in parts of southern China owing to the emission totals of SO2 and NO2 increasing from 1993 to 2004.(2) Notable changes in the proportion of cities subject to severe acid rain occurred mainly in the south of the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River during 1993-2004.With an abrupt change in 1999,the severe acid rain regions were mainly located in central and western China during 1993-1999 and moved obviously eastward to the south of the lower-middle reaches of the Yangtze River with the proportion of cities subject to severe acid rain increasing significantly from 2000 to 2004.(3) The spatial distribution and variation in the seasonal precipitation change rate of more than 10 mm/10a are similar to those of severe acid rain in southern China.An abrupt change in 1999 is seen for winter and summer precipitation,the same as for the proportion of cities subject to severe acid rain in southern China.The significant increase in summer storm precipitation from 1991 to 1999 mitigated the annual precipitation acidity in the south of the Yangtze River and reduced the area of severe acid rainfall.On the other hand,the decrease in storm rainfall in summer expanded the area of severe acid rainfall in the south of the Yangtze River in 2000-2006.Therefore,the change in seasonal precipitation is an important factor in the severe acid rain regions moving eastward and expanding in southern China.

The development of grass-feeding livestock breeding is the key to promoting the transition from grain-consumption type animal husbandry to grain-saving type animal husbandry in China, and to solving the problem of competition for grain between people and livestock. From the perspective of economic geography, this paper first defines the conversion standard for the breeding quantity of livestock, and then uses exploratory spatial data analysis technology and econometric models and methods to systematically investigate the sequential variation process, geographical aggregation characteristics, and influencing factors of grass-feeding livestock breeding in China. The study results show the following: 1) The breeding quantity of grass-feeding livestock in China has an obvious overall growth trend, but there is an obvious difference among the livestock species. During the period 1978-2012, the breeding quantity of grass-feeding livestock in China grew by 92.5%; and the breeding quantity within the same period was beef cattle > sheep > dairy cow. 2) On the county scale, the number of increasing areas of the breeding quantity of grass-feeding livestock is larger than the number of decreasing areas, and the growth rate of breeding quantity of grass-feeding livestock in northern China is higher than that in southern China, which initially forms the pattern of “hot in the north and cold in the south”. 3) The spatial Durbin model shows that the per capita output of grain, proportion of productive land area, urban per capita disposable income, agricultural mechanization level, agricultural labor productivity and policy factor have positive effects on the development of grass-feeding livestock breeding, while the per capita GDP, urbanization level and proportion of non-agricultural income have obvious negative effects on it. 4) Grass-feeding livestock breeding in China can be divided into six major types of areas, and each type of area should be regulated and controlled in terms of their respective focus of attention according to regional conditions and situation of agricultural production.

Detailed knowledge about the estimates and spatial patterns of soil organic carbon (SOC) and total nitrogen (TN) stocks is fundamental for sustainable land management and climate change mitigation. This study aimed at: (1) mapping the spatial patterns, and (2) quantifying SOC and TN stocks to 30 cm depth in the Eastern Mau Forest Reserve using field, remote sensing, geographical information systems (GIS), and statistical modelling approaches. This is a critical ecosystem offering essential services, but its sustainability is threatened by deforestation and degradation. Results revealed that elevation, silt content, TN concentration, and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager band 11 explained 72% of the variability in SOC stocks, while the same factors (except silt content) explained 71% of the variability in TN stocks. The results further showed that soil properties, particularly TN and SOC concentrations, were more important than that other environmental factors in controlling the observed patterns of SOC and TN stocks, respectively. Forests stored the highest amounts of SOC and TN (3.78 Tg C and 0.38 Tg N) followed by croplands (2.46 Tg C and 0.25 Tg N) and grasslands (0.57 Tg C and 0.06 Tg N). Overall, the Eastern Mau Forest Reserve stored approximately 6.81 Tg C and 0.69 Tg N. The highest estimates of SOC and TN stocks (hotspots) occurred on the western and northwestern parts where forests dominated, while the lowest estimates (coldspots) occurred on the eastern side where croplands had been established. Therefore, the hotspots need policies that promote conservation, while the coldspots need those that support accumulation of SOC and TN stocks.

Comprehensive information on geographic patterns of leaf morphological traits in Chinese forests is still scarce. To explore the spatial patterns of leaf traits, we investigated leaf area (LA), leaf thickness (LT), specific leaf area (SLA), and leaf dry matter content (LDMC) across 847 species from nine typical forests along the North-South Transect of Eastern China (NSTEC) between July and August 2013, and also calculated the community weighted means (CWM) of leaf traits by determining the relative dominance of each species. Our results showed that, for all species, the means (± SE) of LA, LT, SLA, and LDMC were 2860.01 ± 135.37 mm², 0.17 ± 0.003 mm, 20.15 ± 0.43 m² kg^-1, and 316.73 ± 3.81 mg g^-1, respectively. Furthermore, latitudinal variation in leaf traits differed at the species and community levels. Generally, at the species level, SLA increased and LDMC decreased as latitude increased, whereas no clear latitudinal trends among LA or LT were found, which could be the result of shifts in plant functional types. When scaling up to the community level, more significant spatial patterns of leaf traits were observed (R² = 0.46-0.71), driven by climate and soil N content. These results provided synthetic data compilation and analyses to better parameterize complex ecological models in the future, and emphasized the importance of scaling-up when studying the biogeographic patterns of plant traits.

Twenty-one typical coupled large samples were chosen from areas within and surrounding nature reserves on the Tibetan Plateau using the large sample comparison method (LSCM). To evaluate the effectiveness of the nature reserves in protecting the ecological environment, the alpine grassland net primary production (NPP) of these coupled samples were compared and the differences between them before and after their establishment as protected areas were analyzed. The results showed that: (1) With respect to the alpine grassland NPP, the ecological and environmental conditions of most nature reserves were more fragile than those of the surrounding areas and also lower than the average values for the Tibetan Plateau. (2) Of the 11 typical nature reserves selected, the positive trend in the NPP for Manzetang was the most significant, whereas there was no obvious trend in Taxkorgan. With the exception of Selincuo, the annual NPP growth rate in the nature reserves covered by alpine meadow and wetland was higher than that in nature reserves consisting of alpine steppe and alpine desert. (3) There were notable findings in 21 typical coupled samples: (a) After the establishment of the nature reserves, the annual rate of increase in the NPP in 76% of samples inside nature reserves and 82% of samples inside national nature reserves was higher than that of the corresponding samples outside nature reserves. (b) The effectiveness of ecological protection of the Mid-Kunlun, Changshagongma, Zoige and Selincuo (Selin Co) nature reserves was significant; the effectiveness of protection was relatively significant in most parts of the Sanjiangyuan and Qiangtang nature reserves, whereas in south-east Manzetang and north Taxkorgan the protection effectiveness was not obvious. (c) The ecological protection effectiveness was significant in nature reserves consisting of alpine meadow, but was weak in nature reserves covered by alpine steppe. This study also shows that the advantage of large sample comparison method in evaluating regional ecology change. Careful design of the samples used, to ensure comparability between the samples, is crucial to the success of this LSCM.

Based on county-level crop statistics and other ancillary information, spatial distribution of maize in the major maize-growing areas (latitudes 39°-48°N) was modelled for the period 1980-2010 by using a cross-entropy-based spatial allocation model. Maize extended as far north as the northern part of the Lesser Khingan Mountains during the period, and the area sown to maize increased by about 5 million ha. More than half of the increase occurred before 2000, and more than 80% of it in the climate transitional zone, where the annual accumulated temperature (AAT) was 2800-3400 °C·d. Regions with AAT of 3800-4000 °C·d became more important, accounting for more than 25% of the increase after 2000. The expansion of maize was thus closely related to warming, although some variation in the distribution was noticed across zones in relation to the warming, indicating that maize in northeast China may have adapted successfully to the warming by adjusting its spatial distribution to match the changed climate.

Using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer-normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) dataset, we investigated the patterns of spatiotemporal variation in vegetation coverage and its associated driving forces in the Qinling-Daba (Qinba) Mountains in 2000-2014. The Sen and Mann-Kendall models and partial correlation analysis were used to analyze the data, followed by calculation of the Hurst index to analyze future trends in vegetation coverage. The results of the study showed that (1) NDVI of the study area exhibited a significant increase in 2000-2014 (linear tendency, 2.8%/10a). During this period, a stable increase was detected before 2010 (linear tendency, 4.32%/10a), followed by a sharp decline after 2010 (linear tendency, -6.59%/10a). (2) Spatially, vegetation cover showed a “high in the middle and a low in the surroundings” pattern. High values of vegetation coverage were mainly found in the Qinba Mountains of Shaanxi Province. (3) The area with improved vegetation coverage was larger than the degraded area, being 81.32% and 18.68%, respectively, during the study period. Piecewise analysis revealed that 71.61% of the total study area showed a decreasing trend in vegetation coverage in 2010-2014. (4) Reverse characteristics of vegetation coverage change were stronger than the same characteristics on the Qinba Mountains. About 46.89% of the entire study area is predicted to decrease in the future, while 34.44% of the total area will follow a continuously increasing trend. (5) The change of vegetation coverage was mainly attributed to the deficit in precipitation. Moreover, vegetation coverage during La Nina years was higher than that during El Nino years. (6) Human activities can induce ambiguous effects on vegetation coverage: both positive effects (through implementation of ecological restoration projects) and negative effects (through urbanization) were observed.

Based on a 0.5°×0.5° daily gridded precipitation dataset and observations in meteorological stations released by the National Meteorological Information Center, the interannual variation of areal precipitation in the Qilian Mountains during 1961-2012 is investigated using principal component analysis (PCA) and regression analysis, and the relationship between areal precipitation and drought accumulation intensity is also analyzed. The results indicate that the spatial distribution of precipitation in the Qilian Mountains can be well reflected by the gridded dataset. The gridded data-based precipitation in mountainous region is generally larger than that in plain region, and the eastern section of the mountain range usually has more precipitation than the western section. The annual mean areal precipitation in the Qilian Mountains is 724.9×10⁸ m³, and the seasonal means in spring, summer, autumn and winter are 118.9×10⁸ m³, 469.4×10⁸ m³, 122.5×10⁸ m³ and 14.1×10⁸ m³, respectively. Summer is a season with the largest areal precipitation among the four seasons, and the proportion in summer is approximately 64.76%. The areal precipitation in summer, autumn and winter shows increasing trends, but a decreasing trend is seen in spring. Among the four seasons, summer have the largest trend magnitude of 1.7×10⁸ m³×a^-1. The correlation between areal precipitation in the mountainous region and dry-wet conditions in the mountains and the surroundings can be well exhibited. There is a negative correlation between drought accumulation intensity and the larger areal precipitation is consistent with the weaker drought intensity for this region.

Lake ice phenology, i.e. the timing of freeze-up and break-up and the duration of the ice cover, is regarded as an important indicator of changes in regional climate. Based on the boundary data of lakes, some moderate-high resolution remote sensing datasets including MODIS and Landsat TM/ETM+ images and the meteorological data, the spatial-temporal variations of lake ice phenology in the Hoh Xil region during the period 2000-2011 were analyzed by using RS and GIS technology. And the factors affecting the lake ice phenology were also identified. Some conclusions can be drawn as follows. (1) The time of freeze-up start (FUS) and freeze-up end (FUE) of lake ice appeared in the late October-early November, mid-November - early December, respectively. The duration of lake ice freeze-up was about half a month. The time of break-up start (BUS) and break-up end (BUE) of lake ice were relatively dispersed, and appeared in the early February - early June, early May - early June, respectively. The average ice duration (ID) and the complete ice duration (CID) of lakes were 196 days and 181 days, respectively. (2) The phenology of lake ice in the Hoh Xil region changed dramatically in the last 10 years. Specifically, the FUS and FUE time of lake ice showed an increasingly delaying trend. In contrast, the BUS and BUE time of lake ice presented an advance. This led to the reduction of the ID and CID of lake. The average rates of ID and CID were -2.21 d/a and -1.91 d/a, respectively. (3) The variations of phenology and evolution of lake ice were a result of local and climatic factors. The temperature, lake area, salinity and shape of the shoreline were the main factors affecting the phenology of lake ice. However, the other factors such as the thermal capacity and the geological structure of lake should not be ignored as well. (4) The spatial process of lake ice freeze-up was contrary to its break-up process. The type of lake ice extending from one side of lakeshore to the opposite side was the most in the Hoh Xil region.

The paper presents the analysis of tendencies in water level changes in 32 lakes in Poland during 1976-2010. Series of monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation and air temperature for 9 meteorological stations were also studied. The trend analysis for all of the studied series of water levels in lakes showed high spatial and temporal variability. Series of annual water levels in the case of 6 lakes showed statistically significant increasing tendencies, and in 7 lakes, significant decreasing trends. Series of annual amplitudes in the majority of lakes (22) showed a decreasing trend, but they were statistically significant only in three cases. The tendencies for air temperature fluctuations are more statistically significant than precipitation. The key role in determining water level changes is played by local factors, particularly including human economic activity, obscuring the effect of natural factors on water level changes. The paper describes cases of changes in water levels in lakes under anthropopressure related to among others: agricultural irrigations, hydropower infrastructure, water transfers, navigation, or mining.

Elucidating the complex mechanism between urbanization, economic growth, carbon dioxide emissions is fundamental necessary to inform effective strategies on energy saving and emission reduction in China. Based on a balanced panel data of 31 provinces in China over the period 1997-2010, this study empirically examines the relationships among urbanization, economic growth and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions at the national and regional levels using panel cointegration and vector error correction model and Granger causality tests. Results showed that urbanization, economic growth and CO₂ emissions are integrated of order one. Urbanization contributes to economic growth, both of which increase CO₂ emissions in China and its eastern, central and western regions. The impact of urbanization on CO₂ emissions in the western region was larger than that in the eastern and central regions. But economic growth had a larger impact on CO₂ emissions in the eastern region than that in the central and western regions. Panel causality analysis revealed a bidirectional long-run causal relationship among urbanization, economic growth and CO₂ emissions, indicating that in the long run, urbanization does have a causal effect on economic growth in China, both of which have causal effect on CO₂ emissions. At the regional level, we also found a bidirectional long-run causality between land urbanization and economic growth in eastern and central China. These results demonstrated that it might be difficult for China to pursue carbon emissions reduction policy and to control urban expansion without impeding economic growth in the long run. In the short-run, we observed a unidirectional causation running from land urbanization to CO₂ emissions and from economic growth to CO₂ emissions in the eastern and central regions. Further investigations revealed an inverted N-shaped relationship between CO₂ emissions and economic growth in China, not supporting the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis. Our empirical findings have an important reference value for policy-makers in formulating effective energy saving and emission reduction strategies for China.

The urban vulnerability poses a serious challenge to achieving sustainable development. With the concentration of the population and the economy, cities must manage the higher frequencies and risks of various hazards and are becoming more vulnerable. Research on the assessment and regulatory control of urban vulnerability is of great significance for both urbanization quality improvement and sustainable development in China or other countries in the world. Because of the complexity of cities and vulnerability concepts, existing studies have focused on different aspects of urban vulnerability. And the research content of urban vulnerability is scattered and relatively independent, leading to a lack of comparability among the research data and resulting in tremendous difficulties in summarizing the conclusions through comparison of independent research data. Therefore the goal of this study was to construct urban vulnerability index (UVI) from the perspective of sustainable development that could assess urban vulnerability comprehensively. In this study, we selected 10 subindexes involving 36 specific parameters from four aspects (resources, eco-environmental systems, economics, and social development) to construct a comprehensive index system. We also established the standard values of measurements. Then we take 288 prefecture-level cities in China as a study area and evaluate its overall urban vulnerability and its spatial differentiation. Results indicate that urban vulnerability of China has a remarkable spatial differentiation of both “gradient distribution” and “clustered distribution”; the extent of urban vulnerability corresponds to city size, the bigger the city, the lower its vulnerability; resource-based cities are more vulnerable than comprehensive cities; a city’s economic growth rate does not reflect the extent of its urban vulnerability. Further, we offer a few suggestions to cope with urban vulnerability in China.

Spatially explicit modeling techniques recently emerged as an alternative to monitor land use changes. This study adopted the well-known CLUE-S (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent) model to analyze the spatio-temporal land use changes in a hot-spot in Northeast China (NEC). In total, 13 driving factors were selected to statistically analyze the spatial relationships between biophysical and socioeconomic factors and individual land use types. These relationships were then used to simulate land use dynamic changes during 1980-2010 at a 1 km spatial resolution, and to capture the overall land use change patterns. The obtained results indicate that increases in cropland area in NEC were mainly distributed in the Sanjiang Plain and the Songnen Plain during 1980-2000, with a small reduction between 2000 and 2010. An opposite pattern was identified for changes in forest areas. Forest decreases were mainly distributed in the Khingan Mountains and the Changbai Mountains between 1980 and 2000, with a slight increase during 2000-2010. The urban areas have expanded to occupy surrounding croplands and grasslands, particularly after the year 2000. More attention is needed on the newly gained croplands, which have largely replaced wetlands in the Sanjiang Plain over the last decade. Land use change patterns identified here should be considered in future policy making so as to strengthen local eco-environmental security.

Since 1979, the Pearl River Delta (PRD) of China has experienced rapid socio- economic development along with a fast expansion of construction area. Affected by both natural and human factors, a complex interdependency is found among the regional changes in construction area, GDP and population. A quantitative analysis of the four phases of the regional land use data extracted from remote sensing images and socioeconomic statistics spanning 1979 to 2009 demonstrates that the proportion of construction area in the PRD increased from 0.5% in 1979 to 10.8% in 2009, accompanied with a rapid loss of agricultural land. An increase of one million residents was associated with an increase of GDP of approximately 32 billion yuan before 2000 and approximately 162 billion yuan after 2000. Because the expansion of construction area has approached the limits of land resource in some cities of the PRD, a power function is found more suitable than a linear one in describing the relationship between GDP and construction area. Consequently, the Logistic model is shown to provide more accurate predictions of population growth than the Malthus model, particularly in some cities where a very large proportion of land resource has been urbanized, such as Shenzhen and Dongguan.

Farmland abandonment is a type of land use change in the mountain region, and this change is under rapid development. Whether farmland transfer can prevent this process and promote the effective allocation of land resources or not is a question worth studying and discussion. With the help of the previous research findings, the objective of this paper was to find out the role of farmland transfer on preventing farmland abandonment, by using the methods of multiple view with two factors, and single factor correlation analysis. The results showed that: (1) At village level, a significant negative correlation between farmland transfer and farmland abandonment existed in the study site, with R² = 0.7584. This correlation of farmland with high grade farming conditions presented more outstandingly. The fitted curve for the farmland at Level I had the largest R² at 0.288, while that for the farmland at Level IV had the smallest R² at 0.103. Which indicated that farmland transfer could prevent the abandonment of farmland with high grade farming conditions? (2) At plot level, the abandonment rate of farmland with high grade farming conditions was significantly lower than that of farmland with poor grade farming conditions. It was the lowest at 10.49% for the farmland with Level I farming conditions, whereas the farmland with Level I farming conditions was 26.21%. Abandoned farmland was mainly contributed by farmland with Level IV farming conditions in the study site. (3) At village level, the role of farming conditions on farmland abandonment was insignificant. The univariate correlation analysis revealed that the abandonment ratio was negatively correlated with the proportions of farmland at Levels I and II and their accumulated proportion; however, their R² were small at 0.194, 0.258, and 0.275, respectively. The abandonment of farmland with high farming conditions still existed. The abandonment ratios of farmland at Levels I and II were high at 9.96% and 10.60%, respectively. This presented that farmland transfer on behalf of the land rental market was still not developed. (4) However, the village possessed the high rate of farmland transfer, and its rate of farmland abandonment with high grade farming conditions was all lower. When the transfer ratios of farmland were over 20%, the abandonment ratios of farmland at Levels I and II were 6.47% and 6.92%, respectively. Farmland abandonment was still controlled by the improvement of land rental market. And the functions of land rental market optimizing the utilization of farmland resources have been presented to a certain degree. (5) To further improve the marketing degree of land rental, the probability of farmland abandonment could be reduced. Especially, their function to farmland with high grade farming conditions was very obvious, and could avoid the waste of farmland resources with high grade farming conditions.