This study analyses spatial variability and trends in annual and monthly precipitation (amount and concentration) based on data from 42 stations in mainland Portugal during the period 1960-2011. Relationships between certain geographic variables (elevation, latitude and longitude) and precipitation variability were also determined in order to check for specific dependencies and spatial patterns in precipitation distribution, concentration and changing trends. Trends and relationships have been analysed using both parametric and non-parametric tests. The results showed that annual precipitation had decreased in all stations and that this trend is statistically significant for most of the time series (70% of the stations showed negative trends with at least a 0.1 significance level). The Annual Precipitation Concentration Index revealed an opposite behaviour pattern, suggesting that even though the annual trend for precipitation amount was negative overall, more than half of the udometric stations registered a more marked seasonality for precipitation during the period 1960-2011. However, only one station showed statistical significant time trend. Regarding the influence of geographical features, latitude is the most important variable, governing spatial distribution and variations in annual precipitation as well as its intra-annual changeability. These important changes in precipitation, involving both amount and concentration, may have severe consequences for ecosystems and societies.

Proxy records of the oxygen isotopic composition of meteorological precipitation (δ¹⁸O_p) preserved in archives such as ice cores, lacustrine carbonates and stalagmite calcite are important for paleoclimatic studies. Therefore, knowledge of the variations and controlling mechanisms of modern δ¹⁸O_p on different time scales is necessary. Here, we investigate the linear correlations between δ¹⁸O_p and corresponding temperature and precipitation on monthly and inter-annual timescales, using data from the Urumqi (1986-2003) and Hotan stations of the Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP), and δ¹⁸O data from 4 ice cores in the adjacent Tianshan Mountains. Consistent with previous reported results, modern δ¹⁸O_p variations on a seasonal time scale in the Tianshan region are mainly controlled by a ‘temperature effect’ (indicated by a significant positive correlation between δ¹⁸O_p and temperature), with more positive δ¹⁸O_p values occurring in summer. However, on an inter-annual timescale, there is a weak inverse correlation between weighted average annual δ¹⁸O_p and annual average temperature at Urumqi station. This finding is supported by the inversely varying trends of δ¹⁸O data from 4 ice cores in the central and eastern Tianshan Mountains compared to annual average temperatures in the same region during the past 40-50 years. The data from Urumqi station and the 4 ice cores demonstrate that there is inverse correlation between δ¹⁸O_p and temperature on inter-annual to decadal time scales. Analysis of water vapor sources and pathways for the warm year of 1997 and the cold year of 1988 reveal that relatively more water vapor for the Tianshan region was derived from long-distance transport from high-latitude sources than during the warm year of 1997; and that more water vapor was transported from more proximal sources from mid- to low-latitude areas during the cold year of 1988. In addition, the δ¹⁸O_p values are more negative in the high latitude areas than those in mid- to low-latitude areas in the Eurasian continent at the upper wind direction of Tianshan Mountains region, according to the weighted averaged warm season (May to September) δ¹⁸O_p values for 14 GNIP stations in the years 1997 and 1988. Due to the distribution of δ¹⁸O_p within the Eurasian continent, the relative shift of water vapor sources between warm and cold years convincingly explains the observed variations of δ¹⁸O_p in the Tianshan Mountains region. Therefore, we conclude that variations in δ¹⁸O_p in this region are mainly controlled by changes in water vapor sources which are ultimately caused by northward and southward shifts in the Westerly circulation.

Land function change has been the focus of scientific research and policy making worldwide. Agricultural development and land use demand at present in China shared common characteristics with the countries such as Japan, South Korea, USA, and European developed countries, which have undergone cultivated land function transition. Whether cultivated land function transition occurred is of significance for land change science and cultivated land protection in China. However, there has been no explicit methodology for cultivated land function change research. This paper firstly presents a methodology by integrating policy development analysis based on the normative connotation of cultivated land function or termed cultivated land function demand and quantitative assessment based on the positive connotation of cultivated land function or termed cultivated land function supply. Then, cultivated land function transition is diagnosed by analyzing cultivated land function change in 1949-2012. Results show that cultivated land function transition overall occurred in 2006. Specifically, the normative cultivated land function or cultivated land function demand fragmented into seven types in 1985 and upgraded in 2004. Total value of the positive cultivated land function or cultivated land function supply turned to rise with an increase from 2.40 to 2.45 as the coefficients of variability (CV) of the value of the seven functions decreased from 2.94 to 2.29 in 2006-2012. The two-year gap between these two aspects of transition mainly resulted from the time lag effects of policy implementation. In the process of the transition, co-ordination and malposition of supply and demand of cultivated land function coexisted with supply lag and function morphology distortion. Considering the transition experiences in the developed countries mentioned above, suggestions on multifunctional cultivated land management are proposed. Moreover, route of land use transition research is discussed.

The Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-S) model is a widely used method to simulate land use change. An ordinary logistic regression model was integrated into the CLUE-S model to identify explanatory variables without considering the spatial autocorrelation effect. Using image-derived maps of the Changsha- Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration, the CLUE-S model was integrated with the ordinary logistic regression and autologistic regression models in this paper to simulate land use change in 2000, 2005 and 2009 based on an observation map from 1995. Significant positive spatial autocorrelation was detected in residuals of ordinary logistic models. Some variables that were much more significant than they should be were selected. Autologistic regression models, which used autocovariate incorporation, were better able to identify driving factors. The Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (ROC) values of autologistic regression models were larger than 0.8 and the pseudo R² values were improved, compared with results of logistic regression model. By overlapping the observation maps, the Kappa values of the ordinary logistic regression model (OL)-CLUE-S and autologistic regression model (AL)-CLUE-S models were larger than 0.75. The results showed that the simulation results were indeed accurate. The Kappa fuzzy (Kfuzzy) values of the AL-CLUE-S models (0.780, 0.773, 0.606) were larger than the values of the OL-CLUE-S models (0.759, 0.760, 0.599) during the three periods. The AL-CLUE-S models performed better than the OL-CLUE-S models in the simulation of land use change. The results showed that it is reasonable to integrate autocovariates into CLUE-S models. However, the Kfuzzy values decreased with prolonged duration of simulation and the maximum range of time was not discussed in this paper.

Based on remote sensing data of the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) in the years of 1991, 2001 and 2008, the paper built an index system of land use potential restraint factors in YRD, according to geological condition, terrain condition, water area, natural reserve area and basic farmland, and evaluated construction land potential based on the platform of GIS spatial analysis model. The results showed that: (1) the construction land increased rapidly since 1991 and reached 24,951.21 km² in 2008, or 21.27% of the total area. Among all the cities in the YRD, Shanghai took the greatest percentage, followed by Jiangsu and Zhejiang. Spatially, areas where government departments are located became the growth center of construction land. Prefecture-level cities were the fastest growth region and the changing trend showed circle layered characteristics and significant increase with Shanghai and Suzhou as the core. (2) The higher the quality of construction land potentials (CLP), the smaller the number of CLP units. High sensitive area accounted for the largest percentage (40.14%) among all types of constraint regions and this was followed by medium sensitive region (31.53%) of the whole region. (3) The comprehensive CLP in the YRD was 24,989.65 km², or 21.76% of the total YRD. The land use potential showed spatial distribution imbalance. CLP of Zhejiang was obviously larger than that of Jiangsu. CLP was insufficient in regional central city. Moreover, CLP in the YRD formed a circle layered spatial pattern that increasingly expanded centered in prefecture-level cities. Low potential area expanded from north to south. High potential area was mainly located in south YRD. Areas with zero potential in the YRD formed a northwest-southeast “Y-shaped” spatial pattern in north Hangzhou Bay. (4) CLP per capita in YRD was 0.045 ha/person and also unevenly distributed. Some 25.57% of the study units at county level nearly had no construction land and 8.24% of the units had CLP per capita below the national average level. CLP per capita in less than 25% of the county-level units was larger than the YRD average level, which were mainly located in Zhejiang. Therefore, research on the construction potential area in YRD was favorable for analysis of the development status and potential space of this region under the background of rapid urbanization and industrialization.

Land suitability assessment (LSA) is one of the key processes of land-use planning. Given its particularity of land suitability assessment for post-earthquake reconstruction, this paper takes into account geological conditions, risk of disasters, water and land resources conditions, and eco-environmental suitability and emphasizes safety factor in the assessment. Taking the April 20, 2013 Mw 6.6 Lushan earthquake as a case, this assessment establishes factors system, uses GIS spatial analysis techniques and data of geology, topography, resources, and eco-environment to evaluate the land suitability for reconstruction. The results show that: (1) the spatial characteristics of land suitability for reconstruction at grid scale and administrative scale manifest that most of the piedmont plains in the east are suitable for large-scale population aggregation, industrialization, and urbanization development; and (2) for the six hard-hit counties, Mingshan is the preferred region for large-scale post-earthquake reconstruction due to its high construction index and suitable land per capita, and some plots of land in the valleys could be selected for in-situ small-scale reconstruction in Lushan. The land suitability assessment for post-earthquake reconstruction would be significant to making sound reconstruction planning for achieving sustainable regional development in the Mw 6.6 Lushan earthquake stricken area. This study could be used as a reference for the regions with similar events.

About 80% of global wetland resources are degrading or disappearing; thus the wetland ecosystem has become one of the most seriously threatened ecosystems in the world. As an area sensitive to global changes and acting as a security barrier for the Asian ecosystem, the Tibetan Plateau has about 13.19×10⁴ km² of wetlands of special significance within China. With the increasing application of remote sensing technology to wetland research, Tibetan Plateau wetland research has entered a period of rapid development. This paper summarizes the remote sensing research literature of the Tibetan Plateau wetlands from 1992 to 2014, and is intended to provide references for future research into the wetlands of the Tibetan Plateau. We have reviewed monitoring methods, research topics, and existing problems. Our review has revealed the following characteristics: (1) Over the past 40 years, the research paradigm of the Tibetan Plateau wetlands has undergone dynamic changes in the monitoring of wetland areas, landscape patterns and the eco-environment based on remote sensing technology. Attention has also been focused on constructing models with an ecological system perspective and analyzing three patterns of change trends within the Tibetan Plateau wetlands. (2) The results of Tibetan Plateau wetland research based on remote sensing were as follows: (a) between 1970 and 2006, the Tibetan Plateau wetland area decreased overall at a rate of 0.23%/a, and the landscape diversity declined at a rate of 0.17%/a; (b) by contrast, between 1976 and 2009, the lake area of the inland river basins in the Tibetan Plateau increased at a rate of 0.83%/a; and (c) the change trend in the Tibetan Plateau wetlands was controlled by climate change. Current problems relating to remote sensing (RS)-based research in the Tibetan Plateau wetlands are computer interpretation accuracy and the processing precision of cloud removal, and the lack of a comprehensive overview of the Tibetan Plateau wetland system. Finally, based on the review, some key activities for future study have been proposed, as follows: (1) Strengthening the integration of the Tibetan Plateau wetland research with remote sensing research; (2) discussing the response and adaptation mechanisms of the Tibetan Plateau wetland ecosystem within the context of global change; (3) strengthening the integration of remote sensing (RS), geographic information system (GIS), and global positioning system (GPS), and promoting the construction of a Tibetan Plateau wetland information platform.

China is distinguished by a prominent monsoonal climate in the east of the country, a continental arid climate in the northwest and a highland cold climate on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Because of the long history of Chinese civilization, there are abundant and well-dated documentary records for climate variation over the whole of the country as well as many natural archives (e.g., tree-rings, ice cores, stalagmites, varved lake sediments and corals) that enable high-resolution paleoclimatic reconstruction. In this paper, we review recent advances in the reconstruction of climate and extreme events over the last 2000 years in China. In the last 10 years, many new reconstructions, based on multi-proxies with wide spatial coverage, have been published in China. These reconstructions enable us to understand the characteristics of climate change across the country as well as the uncertainties of regional reconstructions. Synthesized reconstructed temperature results show that warm intervals over the last 2000 years occurred in AD 1-200, AD 551-760, AD 951-1320, and after AD 1921, and also show that cold intervals were in AD 201-350, AD 441-530, AD 781-950, and AD 1321-1920. Extreme cold winters, seen between 1500 and 1900, were more frequent than those after 1950. The intensity of regional heat waves, in the context of recent global warming, may not in fact exceed natural climate variability seen over the last 2000 years. In the eastern monsoonal region of China, decadal, multi-decadal and centennial oscillations are seen in rainfall variability. While the ensemble mean for drought/flood spatial patterns across all cold periods shows a meridional distribution, there is a tri-pole pattern with respect to droughts south of 25°N, floods between 25° and 30°N, and droughts north of 30°N for all warm periods. Data show that extreme drought events were most frequent in the periods AD 301-400, AD 751-800, AD 1051-1150, AD 1501-1550, and AD 1601-1650, while extreme flood events were frequent in the periods AD 101-150, AD 251-300, AD 951-1000, AD 1701-1750, AD 1801-1850, and AD 1901-1950. Between AD 1551-1600, extreme droughts and flood events occurred frequently. In arid northwest China, climate was characterized by dry conditions in AD 1000-1350, wet conditions in AD 1500-1850, and has tended to be wet over recent decades. On the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, centennial-scale oscillations in precipitation have occurred over the last 1000 years, interrupted by several multi- decadal-scale severe drought events. Of these, the most severe were in the 1480s and 1710s. In southwest China, extreme droughts as severe as those seen in Sichuan and Chongqing in 2006 are known to have occurred during historical times.

Accompanying the rapid growth of China’s population and economy, energy consumption and carbon emission increased significantly from 1978 to 2012. China is now the largest energy consumer and CO₂ emitter of the world, leading to much interest in researches on the nexus between energy consumption, carbon emissions and low-carbon economy. This article presents the domestic Chinese studies on this hotpot issue, and we obtain the following findings. First, most research fields involve geography, ecology and resource economics, and research contents contained some analysis of current situation, factors decomposition, predictive analysis and the introduction of methods and models. Second, there exists an inverted “U-shaped” curve connection between carbon emission, energy consumption and economic development. Energy consumption in China will be in a low-speed growth after 2035 and it is expected to peak between 6.19-12.13 billion TCE in 2050. China’s carbon emissions are expected to peak in 2035, or during 2020 to 2045, and the optimal range of carbon emissions is between 2.4-3.3 PgC/year (1 PgC=1 billion tons C) in 2050. Third, future research should be focused on global carbon trading, regional carbon flows, reforming the current energy structure, reducing energy consumption and innovating the low-carbon economic theory, as well as establishing a comprehensive theoretical system of energy consumption, carbon emissions and low-carbon economy.

The varied altitudinal gradient of climate and vegetation is further complicated by mass elevation effect (MEE), especially in high and extensive mountain regions. However, this effect and its implications for mountain altitudinal belts have not been well studied until recently. This paper provides an overview of the research carried out in the past 5 years. MEE is virtually the heating effect of mountain massifs and can be defined as the temperature difference on a given elevation between inside and outside of a mountain mass. It can be digitally modelled with three factors of intra-mountain base elevation (MBE), latitude and hygrometric continentality; MBE usually acts as the primary factor for the magnitude of MEE and, to a great extent, could represent MEE. MEE leads to higher treelines in the interior than in the outside of mountain masses. It makes montane forests to grow at 4800-4900 m and snowlines to develop at about 6000 m in the southern Tibetan Plateau and the central Andes, and large areas of forests to live above 3500 m in a lot of high mountains of the world. The altitudinal distribution of global treelines can be modelled with high precision when taking into account MEE and the result shows that MEE contributes the most to treeline distribution pattern. Without MEE, forests could only develop upmost to about 3500 m above sea level and the world ecological pattern would be much simpler. The quantification of MEE should be further improved with higher resolution data and its global implications are to be further revealed.

Coping with extreme climate events and its related climatic disasters caused by climate change has become a global issue and drew wide attention from scientists, policy-makers and public. This paper calculated the expected annual multiple climatic hazards intensity index based on the results of nine climatic hazards including tropical cyclone, flood, landslide, storm surge, sand-dust storm, drought, heat wave, cold wave and wildfire. Then a vulnerability model involving the coping capacity indicator with mortality rate, affected population rate and GDP loss rate, was developed to estimate the expected annual affected population, mortality and GDP loss risks. The results showed that: countries with the highest risks are also the countries with large population or GDP. To substantially reduce the global total climatic hazards risks, these countries should reduce the exposure and improving the governance of integrated climatic risk; Without considering the total exposure, countries with the high mortality rate, affected population rate or GDP loss rate, which also have higher or lower coping capacity, such as the Philippines, Bangladesh and Vietnam, are the hotspots of the planning and strategy making for the climatic disaster risk reduction and should focus on promoting the coping capacity.

Land use and land cover change (LULCC) strongly influence regional and global climate by combining both biochemical and biophysical processes. However, the biophysical process was often ignored, which may offset the biogeochemical effects, so measures to address climate change could not reach the target. Thus, the biophysical influence of LULCC is critical for understanding observed climate changes in the past and potential scenarios in the future. Therefore, it is necessary to identify the mechanisms and effects of large-scale LULCC on climate change through changing the underlying surface, and thus the energy balance. The key scientific issues on understanding the impacts of human activities on global climate that must be addressed including: (1) what are the basic scientific facts of spatial and temporal variations of LULCC in China and comparative countries? (2) How to understand the coupling driving mechanisms of human activities and climate change on the LULCC and then to forecasting the future scenarios? (3) What are the scientific mechanisms of LULCC impacts on biophysical processes of land surface, and then the climate? (4) How to estimate the contributions of LULCC to climate change by affecting biophysical processes of land surface? By international comparison, the impacts of LULCC on climate change at the local, regional and global scales were revealed and evaluated. It can provide theoretical basis for the global change, and have great significance to mitigate and adapt to global climate changes.

Hydrological monitoring and seasonal forecasting is an active research field because of its potential applications in hydrological risk assessment, preparedness and mitigation. In recent decades, developments in ground and satellite measurements have made the hydrometeorological information readily available, and advances in information technology have facilitated the data analysis in a real-time manner. New progress in climate research and modeling has enabled the prediction of seasonal climate with reasonable accuracy and increased resolution. These emerging techniques and advances have enabled more timely acquisition of accurate hydrological fluxes and status, and earlier warning of extreme hydrological events such as droughts and floods. This paper gives current state-of-the-art understanding of the uncertainties in hydrological monitoring and forecasting, reviews the efforts and progress in operational hydrological monitoring system assisted by observations from various sources and experimental seasonal hydrological forecasting, and briefly introduces the current monitoring and forecasting practices in China. The grand challenges and perspectives for the near future are also discussed, including acquiring and extracting reliable information for monitoring and forecasting, predicting realistic hydrological fluxes and states in the river basin being significantly altered by human activity, and filling the gap between numerical models and the end user. We highlight the importance of understanding the needs of the operational water management and the priority to transfer research knowledge to decision-makers.

In the paper, the development of precipitation isotope observation networks in China was reviewed, and recent achievements in isoscape and environmental effect of precipitation stable isotopes were summarized; the hydrological process studies based on precipitation isotopes in China during recent decade were also reviewed. In past decades, the spatial and seasonal patterns of precipitation isotopes have been investigated nationwide, especially after the participation in GNIP (Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation) and the establishment of CHNIP (Chinese Network of Isotopes in Precipitation), although long-term measurements are still limited; besides the nationwide network, a series of regional networks has been widely established across China. From the traditional manual drawing to the computer-aided mapping, and then to the simulation using isotope-equipped models, the productions of precipitation isoscape have been improved. The main factors controlling precipitation isotopes were summarized, and the potential significances of isotopes in climate proxies were mentioned. The recent studies about influence of raindrop sub-cloud secondary evaporation on isotopes were reviewed; based on the precipitation isotope and other parameters, the contribution of recycled moisture (evaporation and transpiration) in local precipitation can be estimated using three- or two-component mixing models. Finally, some prospects of precipitation isotope studies in China were presented.

Ecosystem services are substantial elements for human society. The central challenge to meet the human needs from ecosystems while sustain the Earth’s life support systems makes it urgent to enhance efficient natural resource management for sustainable ecological and socioeconomic development. Trade-off analysis of ecosystem services can help to identify optimal decision points to balance the costs and benefits of the diverse human uses of ecosystems. In this sense, the aim of this paper is to provide key insights into ecosystem services trade-off analysis at different scales from a land use perspective, by comprehensively reviewing the trade-offs analysis tools and approaches that addressed in ecology, economics and other fields. The review will significantly contribute to future research on trade-off analysis to avoid inferior management options and offer a win-win solution based on comprehensive and efficient planning for interacting multiple ecosystem services.

Although the urgency of their conservation has been recognized, Globally Important Agricultural Heritage Systems (GIAHS) designated by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) since 2002 and China Nationally Important Agricultural Heritage Systems (China- NIAHS) certified by the Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) of China since 2012 are faced with questions as to why to conserve them, what is to be conserved, who should conserve them, and how? This paper attempts to clarify and respond to such questions focusing on the conservation of agricultural heritage systems in China based on a review of both theoretical and practical progress. Agricultural heritage systems exhibit a multitude of values for sustainable and equitable development and therefore should be conserved for both present and future generations. Unlike most conventional heritages, the conservation of agricultural heritage systems is a complex, systematic “engineering” in which both physical and biological components and associated socio-cultural processes should be conserved in a dynamic way. Farmers and heritage sites must benefit from the continuance of traditional agricultural production under the premise of ecological functions being sustained and traditional culture being inherited. For a more effective conservation, a multi- stakeholder process should be established involving governments at different levels, multi-disciplinary scientists, communities and farmers, and business enterprises as well as social organizations. As has been demonstrated, the conservation of agricultural heritage systems aims to promote the regional sustainable development, to improve the livelihood, food security and well-being of farm people, and to provide references for the development of modern agriculture in China.

Climate change and water resource issues are global problems of common concern to the international community, and they are major bottlenecks affecting the eco-environment and sustainable socio-economic development in the arid region of Northwest China. On the basis of results from previous studies, this paper points out that the unique landscape of Northwest China increases the complexity and uncertainty of the climate system. This paper analyzes the key constraints on socio-economic development and ecological security in the region, discusses the impact of climate change on water resources in Northwest China, identifies common themes and the main problems present in research on climate change and water resources in the arid northwest region, and finally, based on the importance and urgency of conducting research on the region’s water resources, proposes scientific problems that need to be addressed: first, the impact of climate change on the formation, conversion and future trends of water resources in the region; second, bidirectional coupling of high-resolution regional climate models and water cycle models of arid region land surface patterns; third, the impact of climate change and human activities on water resources of the arid northwest region. Through consideration and discussion of the above, this paper seeks to further clarify specific areas of research on pressing issues related to climate change and water resources in Northwest China, so as to establish a solid scientific basis for significantly enhancing our ability to respond to climate change and water shortages.

With a continuously increasing population and better food consumption levels, improving the efficiency of arable land use and increasing its productivity have become fundamental strategies to meet the growing food security needs in China. A spatial distribution map of medium- and low-yield cropland is necessary to implement plans for cropland improvement. In this study, we developed a new method to identify high-, medium-, and low-yield cropland from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data at a spatial resolution of 500 m. The method could be used to reflect the regional heterogeneity of cropland productivity because the classification standard was based on the regionalization of cropping systems in China. The results showed that the proportion of high-, medium-, and low-yield cropland in China was 21%, 39%, and 40%, respectively. About 75% of the low-yield cropland was located in hilly and mountainous areas, and about 53% of the high-yield cropland was located in plain areas. The five provinces with the largest area of high-yield cropland were all located in the Huang-Huai-Hai region, and the area amounted to 42% of the national high-yield cropland area. Meanwhile, the proportion of high-yield cropland was lower than 15% in Heilongjiang, Sichuan, and Inner Mongolia, which had the largest area allocated to cropland in China. If all the medium-yield cropland could be improved to the productive level of high-yield cropland and the low-yield cropland could be improved to the level of medium-yield cropland, the total productivity of the land would increase 19% and 24%, respectively.

Land use/cover change has been recognized as a key component in global change and has attracted increasing attention in recent decades. Scenario simulation of land use change is an important issue in the study of land use/cover change, and plays a key role in land use prediction and policy decision. Based on the remote sensing data of Landsat TM images in 1989, 2000 and 2010, scenario simulation and landscape pattern analysis of land use change driven by socio-economic development and ecological protection policies were reported in Zhangjiakou city, a representative area of the Poverty Belt around Beijing and Tianjin. Using a CLUE-S model, along with socio-economic and geographic data, the land use simulation of four scenarios-namely, land use planning scenario, natural development scenario, ecological-oriented scenario and farmland protection scenario-were explored according to the actual conditions of Zhangjiakou city, and the landscape pattern characteristics under different land use scenarios were analyzed. The results revealed the following: (1) Farmland, grassland, water body and unused land decreased significantly during 1989-2010, with a decrease of 11.09%, 2.82%, 18.20% and 31.27%, respectively, while garden land, forestland and construction land increased over the same period, with an increase of 5.71%, 20.91% and 38.54%, respectively. The change rate and intensity of land use improved in general from 1989 to 2010. The integrated dynamic degree of land use increased from 2.21% during 1989-2000 to 3.96% during 2000-2010. (2) Land use changed significantly throughout 1989-2010. The total area that underwent land use change was 4759.14 km², accounting for 12.53% of the study area. Land use transformation was characterized by grassland to forestland, and by farmland to forestland and grassland. (3) Under the land use planning scenario, farmland, grassland, water body and unused land shrank significantly, while garden land, forestland and construction land increased. Under the natural development scenario, construction land and forestland increased in 2020 compared with 2010, while farmland and unused land decreased. Under the ecological-oriented scenario, forestland increased dramatically, which mainly derived from farmland, grassland and unused land. Under the farmland protection scenario, farmland was well protected and stable, while construction land expansion was restricted. (4) The landscape patterns of the four scenarios in 2020, compared with those in 2010, were more reasonable. Under the land use planning scenario, the landscape pattern tended to be more optimized. The landscape became less fragmented and heterogeneous with the natural development scenarios. However, under the ecological-oriented scenario and farmland protection scenario, landscape was characterized by fragmentation, and spatial heterogeneity of landscape was significant. Spatial differences in landscape patterns in Zhangjiakou city also existed. (5) The spatial distribution of land use could be explained, to a large extent, by the driving factors, and the simulation results tallied with the local situations, which provided useful information for decision-makers and planners to take appropriate land management measures in the area. The application of the combined Markov model, CLUE-S model and landscape metrics in Zhangjiakou city suggests that this methodology has the capacity to reflect the complex changes in land use at a scale of 300 m×300 m and can serve as a useful tool for analyzing complex land use driving factors.

Global climate change has become a major concern worldwide. The spatio-temporal characteristics of net ecosystem productivity (NEP), which represents carbon sequestration capacity and directly describes the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of carbon sources/sinks (C sources/sinks), are crucial for increasing C sinks and reducing C sources. In this study, field sampling data, remote sensing data, and ground meteorological observation data were used to estimate the net primary productivity (NPP) in the Inner Mongolia grassland ecosystem (IMGE) from 2001 to 2012 using a light use efficiency model. The spatio-temporal distribution of the NEP in the IMGE was then determined by estimating the NPP and soil respiration from 2001 to 2012. This research also investigated the response of the NPP and NEP to the main climatic variables at the spatial and temporal scales from 2001 to 2012. The results showed that most of the grassland area in Inner Mongolia has functioned as a C sink since 2001 and that the annual carbon sequestration rate amounts to 0.046 Pg C/a. The total net C sink of the IMGE over the 12-year research period reached 0.557 Pg C. The carbon sink area accounted for 60.28% of the total grassland area and the sequestered 0.692 Pg C, whereas the C source area accounted for 39.72% of the total grassland area and released 0.135 Pg C. The NPP and NEP of the IMGE were more significantly correlated with precipitation than with temperature, showing great potential for C sequestration.

Different government departments and researchers have paid considerable attention at various levels to improving the eco-environment in ecologically fragile areas. Over the past decade, large numbers of people have emigrated from rural areas as a result of the rapid urbanization in Chinese society. The question then remains: to what extent does this migration affect the regional vegetation greenness in the areas that people have moved from? Based on normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data with a resolution of 1 km, as well as meteorological data and socio-economic data from 2000 to 2010 in Inner Mongolia, the spatio-temporal variation of vegetation greenness in the study area was analyzed via trend analysis and significance test methods. The contributions of human activities and natural factors to the variation of vegetation conditions during this period were also quantitatively tested and verified, using a multi-regression analysis method. We found that: (1) the vegetation greenness of the study area increased by 10.1% during 2000-2010. More than 28% of the vegetation greenness increased significantly, and only about 2% decreased evidently during the study period. (2) The area with significant degradation showed a banded distribution at the northern edge of the agro-pastoral ecotone in central Inner Mongolia. This indicates that the eco-environment is still fragile in this area, which should be paid close attention. The area where vegetation greenness significantly improved showed a concentrated distribution in the southeast and west of Inner Mongolia. (3) The effect of agricultural labor on vegetation greenness exceeded those due to natural factors (i.e. precipitation and temperature). The emigration of agricultural labor improved the regional vegetation greenness significantly.

DMSP/OLS nighttime light (NTL) image is a widely used data source for urbanization studies. Although OLS NTL data are able to map nighttime luminosity, the identification accuracy of distribution of urban areas (UAD) is limited by the overestimation of the lit areas resulting from the coarse spatial resolution. In view of geographical condition, we integrate NTL with Biophysical Composition Index (BCI) and propose a new spectral index, the BCI Assisted NTL Index (BANI) to capture UAD. Comparisons between BANI approach and NDVI-assisted SVM classification are carried out using UAD extracted from Landsat TM/ETM+ data as reference. Results show that BANI is capable of improving the accuracy of UAD extraction using NTL data. The average overall accuracy (OA) and Kappa coefficient of sample cities increased from 88.53% to 95.10% and from 0.56 to 0.84, respectively. Moreover, with regard to cities with more mixed land covers, the accuracy of extraction results is high and the improvement is obvious. For other cities, the accuracy also increased to varying degrees. Hence, BANI approach could achieve better UAD extraction results compared with NDVI-assisted SVM method, suggesting that the proposed method is a reliable alternative method for a large-scale urbanization study in China’s mainland.

It is important to study the contributions of climate change and human activities to cropland changes in the fields of both climate change and land use change. Relationships between cropland changes and driving forces were qualitatively studied in most of the previous researches. However, the quantitative assessments of the contributions of climate change and human activities to cropland changes are needed to be explored for a better understanding of the dynamics of land use changes. We systematically reviewed the methods of identifying the contributions of climate change and human activities to cropland changes at quantitative aspects, including model analysis, mathematical statistical method, framework analysis, index assessment and difference comparison. Progress of the previous researches on quantitative evaluation of the contributions was introduced. Then we discussed four defects in the assessment of the contributions of climate change and human activities. For example, the methods were lack of comprehensiveness, and the data need to be more accurate and abundant. In addition, the scale was single and the explanations were biased. Moreover, we concluded a clue about quantitative approach to assess the contributions from synthetically aspect to specific driving forces. Finally, the solutions of the future researches on data, scale and explanation were proposed.

Current global urbanisation processes are leading to new forms of massive urban constellations. The conceptualisations and classifications of these, however, are often ambiguous, overlap or lag behind in scientific literature. This article examines whether there is a common denominator to define and delimitate-and ultimately map-these new dimensions of cityscapes. In an extensive literature review we analysed and juxtaposed some of the most common concepts such as megacity, megaregion or megalopolis. We observed that many concepts are abstract or unspecific, and for those concepts for which physical parameters exist, the parameters are neither properly defined nor used in standardised ways. While understandably concepts originate from various disciplines, the authors identify a need for more precise definition and use of parameters. We conclude that often, spatial patterns of large urban areas resemble each other considerably but the definitions vary so widely that these differences may surpass any inconsistencies in the spatial delimitation process. In other words, today we have tools such as earth observation data and Geographic Information Systems to parameterise if clear definitions are provided. This appears not to be the case. The limiting factor when delineating large urban areas seems to be a commonly agreed ontology.

Land use transition refers to changes in land use morphology, including dominant morphology and recessive morphology, of a particular region over a period of time driven by various factors. Recently, issues related to land use transition in China have attracted interest among a wide variety of researchers as well as government officials. This paper examines the patterns of land use transition and their dynamic mechanism in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain during 2000-2010. First, the spatio-temporal patterns of land use transition, their characteristics and the laws governing them were analyzed. Second, based on the established conceptual framework for analyzing the dynamic mechanism of land use transition, a spatial econometric regression analysis method was used to analyze the dynamic mechanism of the five types of major land use transition in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain at the county level. Land use pattern changes in the study area were characterized by an increase in construction land, water body and forested land, along with a decrease in farmland, unused land and grassland. The changes during 2000-2005 were much more significant than those during 2005-2010. In terms of factors affecting land use transitions, natural factors form the basis, and they have long-term effects. Socio-economic factors such as population and GDP, however, tend to determine the direction, structure, size and layout of land use transition over shorter time periods. Land law and policy factors play a mandatory guiding and restraining role in land use transitions, so as to improve the overall efficiency of land use. Land resource engineering is also an important tool to control land use transitions. In general, the five types of major land use transition were the result of the combined action of various physical, social and economic factors, of which traffic condition and location condition had the most significant effects, i.e. they were the common factors in all land use transitions. Understanding the spatio-temporal process of land use transitions and their dynamic mechanisms is an important foundation for utilizing land resources, protecting regional ecological environment and promoting sustainable regional socio-economic development.

Urbanization is a complex process reflecting the growth, formation and development of cities and their systems. Measuring regional urbanization levels within a long time series may ensure healthy and harmonious urban development. Based on DMSP/OLS nighttime light data, a human-computer interactive boundary correction method was used to obtain information about built-up urban areas in the Bohai Rim region from 1992 to 2012. Consequently, a method was proposed and applied to measure urbanization levels using four measurement scale units: administrative division, land-sea location, terrain feature, and geomorphological types. Our conclusions are: 1) The extraction results based on DMSP/OLS nighttime light data showed substantial agreement with those obtained using Landsat TM/ETM+ data on spatial patterns. The overall accuracy was 97.70% on average, with an average Kappa of 0.79, indicating that the results extracted from DMSP/OLS nighttime light data were reliable and could well reflect the actual status of built-up urban areas. 2) Bohai Rim’s urbanization level has increased significantly, demonstrating a high annual growth rate from 1998 to 2006. Areas with high urbanization levels have relocated evidently from capital to coastal cities. 3) The distribution of built-up urban areas showed a certain degree of zonal variation. The urbanization level was negatively correlated with relief amplitude and altitude. A high level of urbanization was found in low altitude platforms and low altitude plains, with a gradual narrowing of the gap between these two geomorphological types. 4) The measurement method presented in this study is fast, convenient, and incorporates multiple perspectives. It would offer various directions for urban construction and provide reference values for measuring national-level urbanization.

Sustainable urbanization is not only an important research topic in the field of urbanization, but also the development direction of new-type urbanization. In this paper, we construct an index system to evaluate sustainable urbanization potential with the entropy method. Results show that potential values of sustainable urbanization in most cities are not high. Cities with higher sustainable urbanization potential values are mainly located in the central part of Northeast China. Environmental potential of sustainable urbanization is the main contributor to sustainable urbanization potential in Northeast China. There is no absolute relationship between city size and potential value, large city does not always mean greater potential. Correlation analysis shows that urbanization rate cannot reflect the sustainable urbanization potential of a region. Population urbanization is not the ultimate goal of sustainable urbanization. Unilateral pursue urbanization rate cannot improve the potential of sustainable urbanization. Towards sustainable urbanization, governments in Northeast China should revitalize local economy, pay more attention to the rural areas and develop low-carbon economy or ecological economy. Finally, this paper highlights the importance of choosing more integrated methodology or new models for measuring sustainable urbanization potential in view of the shortcomings of one method.

Forest vegetation carbon patterns are significant for evaluating carbon emission and accumulation. Many methods were used to simulate patterns of forest vegetation carbon stock in previous studies, however, uncertainty apparently existed between results of different methods, even estimates of same method in different studies. Three previous methods, including Atmosphere-vegetation interaction model 2 (AVIM2), Kriging, Satellite-data Based Approach (SBA), and a new method, High Accuracy Surface Modeling (HASM), were used to simulate forest vegetation carbon stock patterns in Jiangxi Province in China. Cross-validation was used to evaluate methods. The uncertainty and applicability of the four methods on provincial scale were analyzed and discussed. The results showed that HASM had the highest accuracy, which improved by 50.66%, 33.37% and 28.58%, compared with AVIM2, Kriging and SBA, respectively. Uncertainty of simulation of forest biomass carbon stock was mainly derived from modeling error, sampling error and statistical error of forest area. Total forest carbon stock, carbon density and forest area of Jiangxi were 288.62 Tg, 3.06 kg/m² and 94.32×10⁹ m² simulated by HASM, respectively.

The Greater Khingan Mountains (Daxinganling) are China’s important ecological protective screen and also the region most sensitive to climate changes. To gain an in-depth understanding and reveal the climate change characteristic in this high-latitude, cold and data-insufficient region is of great importance to maintaining ecological safety and corresponding to global climate changes. In this article, the annual average temperature, precipitation and sunshine duration series were firstly constructed using tree-ring data and the meteorological observation data. Then, using the climate tendency rate method, moving-t-testing method, Yamamoto method and wavelet analysis method, we have investigated the climate changes in the region during the past 307 years. Results indicate that, since 1707, the annual average temperature increased significantly, the precipitation increased slightly and the sunshine duration decreased, with the tendency rates of 0.06℃/10a, 0.79 mm/10a and -5.15 h/10a, respectively (P≤0.01). Since the 21st century, the period with the greatest increase of the annual average temperature (also with the greatest increase of precipitation) corresponds to the period with greatest decrease of sunshine duration. Three sudden changes of the annual average temperature and sunshine duration occurred in this period while two sudden changes of precipitation occurred. The strong sudden-change years of precipitation and sunshine duration are basically consistent with the sudden-change years of annual average temperature, suggesting that in the mid-1860s, the climatic sudden change or transition really existed in this region. In the time domain, the climatic series of this region exhibit obvious local variation characteristics. The annual average temperature and sunshine duration exhibit the periodic variations of 25 years while the precipitation exhibits a periodic variation of 20 years. Based on these periodic characteristics, one can infer that in the period from 2013 to 2030, the temperature will be at a high-temperature stage, the precipitation will be at an abundant-precipitation stage and the sunshine duration will be at an less-sunshine stage. In terms of spatial distribution, the leading distribution type of the annual average temperature in this region shows integrity, i.e., it is easily higher or lower in the whole region; and the second distribution type is more (or less) in the southwest parts and less (or more) in the northeast parts. Precipitation and sunshine duration exhibit complex spatial distribution and include four spatial distribution types. The present study can provide scientific basis for the security investigation of homeland, ecological and water resources as well as economic development programming in China’s northern borders.