Northward-shift of temperature zones in China’s eco-geographical study under future climate scenario

Journal of Geographical Sciences ›› 2010, Vol. 20 ›› Issue (5): 643-651.

• Climate and Environmental Change • 下一篇

Northward-shift of temperature zones in China’s eco-geographical study under future climate scenario

收稿日期:2009-10-20 修回日期:2010-03-26 出版日期:2010-10-15 发布日期:2010-10-15
作者简介:Wu Shaohong (1961–), Ph.D and Professor, specialized in integrated physical geography and climate change. E-mail: wush@igsnrr.ac.cn

Northward-shift of temperature zones in China’s eco-geographical study under future climate scenario

WU Shaohong^1,2, ZHENG Du¹, YIN Yunhe¹, LIN Erda³, XU Yinlong³

1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
2. Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, CAS, Beijing 100085, China;
3. Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, CAAS, Beijing 100081, China

Received:2009-10-20 Revised:2010-03-26 Online:2010-10-15 Published:2010-10-15
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China, No. 40771016; National Scientific and Technical Supporting Programs during the 11th Five-Year Plan of China, No.2007BAC03A02

摘要/Abstract

Abstract:

Despite the well-documented effects of global climate change on terrestrial species’ ranges, eco-geographical regions as the regional scale of ecosystems have been poorly studied especially in China with diverse climate and ecosystems. Here we analyse the shift of temperature zones in eco-geographical study over China using projected future climate scenario. Projected climate data with high resolution during 1961–2080 were simulated using regional climate model of PRECIS. The number of days with mean daily temperature above 10℃ and the mean temperature of January are usually regarded as the principal criteria to indicate temperature zones, which are sensitive to climate change. Shifts due to future climate change were calculated by comparing the latitude of grid cells for the future borderline of one temperature zone with that for baseline period (1961–1990). Results indicated that the ranges of Tropical, Subtropical, Warm Temperate and Plateau Temperate Zones would be enlarged and the ranges of Cold Temperate, Temperate and Plateau Sub-cold Zones would be reduced. Cold Temperate Zone would probably disappear at late this century. North borderlines of temperature zones would shift northward under projected future climate change, especially in East China. Farthest shifts of the north boundaries of Plateau Temperate, Subtropical and Warm Temperate Zones would be 3.1°, 5.3° and 6.6° latitude respectively. Moreover, northward shift would be more notably in northern China as future temperature increased.

Key words: temperature zone, climate change, shift, eco-geographical study

. Northward-shift of temperature zones in China’s eco-geographical study under future climate scenario[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2010, 20(5): 643-651.

WU Shaohong, ZHENG Du, YIN Yunhe, LIN Erda, XU Yinlong. Northward-shift of temperature zones in China’s eco-geographical study under future climate scenario[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2010, 20(5): 643-651.

参考文献

[1] Bailey R, 1998. Ecoregions: The Ecosystem Geography of the Oceans and Continents. New York: Springer-Verlag.

[2] Bailey R, 2002. Ecoregion-Based Design for Sustainability. New York: Springer-Verlag.

[3] Boisvenue C, Running S W, 2006. Impacts of climate change on natural forest productivity: Evidence since the middle of the 20th century. Global Change Biology, 12(5): 862–882.

[4] Callaghan T V, Bj?rn L O, Chernov Y et al., 2004. Effects of changes in climate on landscape and regional processes, and feedbacks to the climate system. Ambio, 33(7): 459–468.

[5] Emanuel W R, Shugart H H, Stevenson M P, 1985. Climatic change and the broad-scale distribution of terrestrial ecosystem complexes. Climatic Change, 7(1): 29–43.

[6] Grabherr G, Gottfried M, Pauli H, 1994. Climate effects on mountain plants. Nature, 369: 448.

[7] IPCC, 2007. Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press.

[8] Jones G S, Tett S F B, Stott P A, 2003. Causes of atmospheric temperature change 1960–2000: A combined attriWU

[9] Shaohong et al.: Northward-shift of temperature zones in China’s eco-geographical study 651 bution analysis. Geophysical Research Letters, 30(5): 1228.

[10] Jones R G, Noguer M, Hassell D C, 2004. Generating High Resolution Climate Change Scenarios Using PRECIS. Exeter, UK: Met Office Hadley Centre.

[11] Li Feng, Zhou Guangsheng, Cao Mingchang, 2006. Responses of Larix gmelinii geographical distribution to future climate change: A simulation study. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 17(12): 2255–2260. (in Chinese)

[12] Malcolm J R, Markham A, Neilson R P et al., 2002. Estimated migration rates under scenarios of global climate change. Journal of Biogeography, 29(7): 835–849.

[13] Monserud R A, Tchebakova N, Leemans R, 1993. Global vegetation change predicted by the modified Budyko Model. Climatic Change, 25(1): 59–83.

[14] Nakicenovic N, Alcamo J, Davis G, 2000. Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change. Cambridge UK: Cambridge University Press.

[15] Root T L, Price J T, Hall K R et al., 2003. Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants. Nature, 421(6918): 57–60.

[16] Santer B D, Taylor K E, Wigley T M L et al., 1996. A search for human influences on the thermal structure of the atmosphere. Nature, 382: 39–46.

[17] Sha Wanying, Shao Xuemei, Huang Mei, 2002. Climate warming and its impact on natural regional boundaries in China in the 1980s. Science in China Series D: Earth Sciences, 45(12): 1099–1113.

[18] Tett S F B, Jones G S, Stott P A et al., 2002. Estimation of natural and anthropogenic contributions to twentieth century temperature change. Journal of Geophysical Research, 107(D16): 4306, DOI 10.1029/2000JD000028.

[19] UNFCCC, 1992. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/ convkp/conveng.pdf.

[20] Walther G R, Post E, Convey P et al., 2002. Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature, 416(6879): 389–395.

[21] Wu S H, Zheng D, 2001. Delineation of boundary between tropical/subtropical in the middle section for eco-geographic system of South China. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 11(1): 80–86.

[22] Wu Shaohong, Yang Qinye, Zheng Du, 2002. An index system for boundaries of eco-geographical regions of China. Progress in Geography, 21(4): 302–310. (in Chinese)

[23] Wu S H, Yang Q Y, Zheng D, 2003. Delineation of eco-geographic regional system of China. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 13(3): 309–315.

[24] Wu S H, Zhao H X, Yin Y H et al., 2006. Recognition of ecosystem response to climate change impact. Advance in Climate Change Research, 2(suppl.1): 59–63.

[25] Xu Y L, Zhang Y, Lin E D et al., 2006. Analyses on the climate change responses over China under SRES B2 scenario using PRECIS. Chinese Science Bulletin, 51(18): 2260–2267.

[26] Yang Qinye, Zheng Du, Wu Shaohong, 2002. Eco-geographical regional system of China. Advance of Natural Sciences, 12(3): 287–291. (in Chinese)

[27] Zhao Mingcha, 1995. Impact of CO2 multiplication on the differentiation of physical zones and the potential agricultural productivity in China. Journal of Natural Resources, 10(2): 148–157. (in Chinese)

[28] Zhao Xinyi, Zhang Huiyuan, Wan Jun, 2002. The impact of climatic change on the climate zones in the Qinghai- Tibetan Plateau. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 22(2): 190–195. (in Chinese)

[29] Zheng D, 1999. A Study on the Eco-geographic Regional System of China. Cambridge, UK: FAO FRA2000 Global Ecological Zoning Workshop.

[30] Zhou Guangsheng, Zhang Xinshi, 1996. Study on climate-vegetation classification for global change in China. Acta Botanica Sinica, 38(1): 8–17. (in Chinese)

[31] Zoltai S C, 1988. Ecoclimatic provinces and man-induced climate change. Canada Committee on Ecological Land Classification, Newsletter, 17: 12–16.

Northward-shift of temperature zones in China’s eco-geographical study under future climate scenario

Northward-shift of temperature zones in China’s eco-geographical study under future climate scenario

PDF (PC)

赞

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 0

Metrics

本文评价

推荐阅读 0