地理学报(英文版) ›› 2016, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (6): 643-657.doi: 10.1007/s11442-016-1290-3
• • 下一篇
收稿日期:
2015-12-29
接受日期:
2016-02-01
出版日期:
2016-06-15
发布日期:
2016-06-15
Yaoping CUI(), Xiaoju NING(
), Yaochen QIN*(
), Xu LI, Youmin CHEN
Received:
2015-12-29
Accepted:
2016-02-01
Online:
2016-06-15
Published:
2016-06-15
Contact:
Yaochen QIN
E-mail:cuiyp@lreis.ac.cn;nxj0655@163.com;qinyc@henu.edu.cn
About author:
Author: Cui Yaoping (1984-) specialized in land use and climate change, E-mail:
Supported by:
. [J]. 地理学报(英文版), 2016, 26(6): 643-657.
Yaoping CUI, Xiaoju NING, Yaochen QIN, Xu LI, Youmin CHEN. Spatio-temporal changes in agricultural hydrothermal conditions in China from 1951 to 2010[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2016, 26(6): 643-657.
"
Climatic factor | Examination | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Annual mean temperature | Mean error of prediction | 0.025 | 0.027 | 0.023 | 0.023 | 0.028 | 0.027 |
Standard root mean square error | 1.864 | 1.284 | 1.382 | 1.433 | 1.376 | 1.405 | |
Mean temperature in the hottest month | Mean error of prediction | 0.016 | 0.021 | 0.019 | 0.020 | 0.016 | 0.017 |
Standard root mean square error | 1.293 | 1.486 | 1.378 | 1.505 | 1.225 | 1.306 | |
Mean temperature in the coldest month | Mean error of prediction | 0.023 | 0.026 | 0.021 | 0.026 | 0.036 | 0.036 |
Standard root mean square error | 1.283 | 0.938 | 0.095 | 0.982 | 1.088 | 1.085 | |
Accumulated temperature over 0°C | Mean error of prediction | 4.586 | 5.184 | 4.589 | 4.692 | 3.896 | 4.104 |
Standard root mean square error | 1.92 | 1.298 | 1.37 | 1.412 | 1.372 | 1.421 | |
Annual precipitation | Mean error of prediction | 3.679 | 1.726 | 0.704 | 2.4 | 2.008 | 2.07 |
Standard root mean square error | 1.834 | 1.44 | 1.406 | 1.496 | 1.341 | 1.268 |
"
Climatic factors | Statistical factors | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Annual mean temperature | Standard deviation | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.5 |
Coefficient of variation | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | |
Mean temperature in the hottest month | Standard deviation | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.8 |
Coefficient of variation | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | |
Mean temperature in the coldest month | Standard deviation | 10.6 | 10.1 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.1 | 10.1 |
Coefficient of variation | -3.1 | -2.7 | -3.3 | -3.9 | -4.7 | -5.2 | |
Accumulated temperature over 0°C | Standard deviation | 1798 | 1795 | 1825 | 1814 | 1824 | 1831 |
Coefficient of variation | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | |
Annual precipitation | Standard deviation | 545.5 | 527 | 550 | 541 | 572.3 | 529 |
Coefficient of variation | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
"
Percentage / % | Regression coefficients b>0 and f (significance) | Regression coefficients b>0 and f (non significance) | Regression coefficients b<0 and f (significance) | Regression coefficients b<0 and f (non significance) |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annual mean temperature | 85.94 | 0.86 | 10.15 | 3.06 |
Mean temperature in the hottest month | 34.19 | 10.17 | 31.86 | 23.77 |
Mean temperature in the coldest month | 81.94 | 0.12 | 16.09 | 1.84 |
Accumulated temperature over 0°C | 86.32 | 0.49 | 11.11 | 2.08 |
Annual precipitation | 6.72 | 10.87 | 35.53 | 46.89 |
7 |
Dong X G, Gu W Z, Meng X X.et al., 2014. Change features of precipitation events in Shandong Province from 1961 to 2010.Acta Geographica Sinica, 69(5): 661-671. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.11821/dlxb201405009 |
8 |
Edmar I T, Guenther F, Harrij V V.et al., 2013. Global hot-spots of heat stress on agricultural crops due to climate change.Agriculture and Forest Meteorology, 170: 206-215.
doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.09.002 |
9 | Falloon P, Betts R, 2010. Climate impacts on European agriculture and water management in the context of adaptation and mitigation: The importance of an integrated approach.Science of the Total Environment, 408: 5667-5687. |
10 |
Fernanda M S, Maria L F, 2009. Climate change and its marginalizing effect on agriculture.Ecological Economics, 68: 896-904.
doi: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2008.07.015 |
11 |
Han L Y, Zhang Q, Yao Y B.et al., 2014. Characteristics and origins of drought disasters in Southwest China in nearly 60 years.Acta Geographica Sinica, 69(5): 632-639. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.11821/dlxb201405006 |
12 | He H Y, Guo Z H, Xiao W F, 2005. Review on spatial interpolation techniques of rainfall.Chinese Journal of Ecology, 24(10): 1187-1191. (in Chinese) |
13 |
Hu S, MO X G, Lin Z H, 2014. The contribution of climate change to the crop phenology and yield in Haihe River Basin.Geographical Research, 33(1): 3-12. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.11821/dlyj201401001 |
14 | Ji Q, Yu M, 2010. Study on parameters setting of ordinary cokriging interpretation to average annual temperature. Journal of Capital Normal University (Natural Science Edition), 31(4): 81-87. (in Chinese) |
15 | Li Y, Yang X G, Wang W F.et al., 2010. Changes of China agricultural climate resources under the background of climate change I: Spatiotemporal change characteristics of agricultural climate resources in South China.Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 21(10): 2605-2614. (in Chinese) |
16 |
Li Y C, He Z M, Liu C X, 2014. Review on spatial interpolation methods of temperature data from meteorological stations.Progress in Geography, 33(8): 1019-1028. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2014.08.002 |
1 |
Alam M M, Siwar C, Jaafar A H.et al., 2013. Agricultural vulnerability and adaptation to climatic changes in Malaysia: Review on paddy sector.Current World Environment, 8(1): 1-12.
doi: 10.12944/CWE.8.1.01 |
2 | Burton I, Huq S, Lim B.et al., 2002. From impacts assessment to adaptation priorities: The shaping of adaptation policy.Climate Policy, 2: 145-159. |
17 |
Li Z G, Yang P, Tang H J.et al., 2011. Trend analysis of typical phenophases of major crops under climate change in the three provinces of Northeast China.Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 44(20): 4180-4189. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2011.20.006 |
18 | Liu D X, Dong A A, Lu D R, 2005. Climatic change of Northwest China and its influence on agricultural production in recent 43 years.Agricultural Research in the Arid Area, 23(2): 195-201. (in Chinese) |
3 |
Chen H, Guo S L, Guo H J.et al., 2006. Temporal and spatial trend in the precipitation and temperature from 1951 to 2003 in the Hanjiang basin.Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 15(3): 340-345. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.1016/S0379-4172(06)60102-9 |
4 |
Dai S P, Li H L, Luo H X.et al., 2014. The spatio-temporal change of active accumulated temperature ≥10°C in southern China from 1960 to 2011.Acta Geographica Sinica, 69(5): 650-660. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.11821/dlxb201405008 |
19 |
Liu Y L, Yan J P, Cen M Y, 2015. Comprehensive evaluation of precipitation heterogeneity in China.Acta Geographica Sinica, 70(3): 392-406. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.11821/dlxb201503004 |
20 |
Ma X, Wu S H, Li Y E.et al., 2012. Assessing climate change impact on seasonal drought in main rice cropping regions in the south of China.Acta Geographica Sinica, 67(11): 1451-1460. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.1007/s11783-011-0280-z |
5 |
Deng Z Y, Zhang Q, Ning H F.et al., 2010. Influence of climate warming and drying on crop eco-climate adaptability in northwestern China.Journal of Desert Research, 30(3): 633-639. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.1097/MOP.0b013e3283423f35 |
6 | Ding Y H, Zhang J, Xu Y et al., 2003. Climatic System Change and Forecast. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 32-35. (in Chinese) |
21 | Mamat Y, Ulam M, Sabit M, 2014. Impact of climate warming on cotton production of Ugan-Kuqa River delta oasis.Geographical Research, 33(2): 251-259. (in Chinese) |
22 |
Olesen J E, Bindi M, 2002. Consequences of climate change for European agricultural productivity, land use and policy.European Journal of Agronomy, 16: 239-262.
doi: 10.1016/S1161-0301(02)00004-7 |
23 |
Piao S L, Ciais P, Huang Y.et al., 2010. The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China.Nature, 467: 43-51.
doi: 10.1038/nature09364 pmid: 20811450 |
24 |
Qian J X, Li N, Han P, 2014. Influence of climate warming in winter on the winter wheat cultivable area in Shanxi Province.Acta Geographica Sinica, 69(5): 672-680. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.11821/dlxb201405010 |
25 |
Ragab R, Prudhomme C, 2002. Climate change and water resources management in arid and semi-arid regions: Prospective and challenges for the 21st century.Biosystems Engineering, 81(1): 3-34.
doi: 10.1006/bioe.2001.0013 |
26 | Ramirez-Villegas J, Jarvis A, Läderach P, 2013. Empirical approaches for assessing impacts of climate change on agriculture: The EcoCrop model and a case study with grain sorghum.Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 170: 67-78. |
27 |
Ren Z G, Zhang M J, Wang S J.et al., 2014. Changes in precipitation extremes in South China during 1961-2011.Acta Geographica Sinica, 69(5): 640-649. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.11821/dlxb201405007 |
28 |
Shi Y F, Shen Y P, Hu R J, 2002. Preliminary study on signal, impact and foreground of climatic shift from warm-dry to warm-humid in Northwest China.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 24(3): 219-226. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.1002/mop.10502 |
29 | Smith W N, Grant B B, Desjardins R L.et al., 2013. Assessing the effects of climate change on crop production and GHG emissions in Canada agriculture.Ecosystems and Environment, 179: 139-150. |
30 | Tang G A, Yang X, 2012. ArcGIS: GIS Spatial Analysis Experiment Tutorial. Beijing: Science Press. (in Chinese) |
31 | Tao F L, Zhang S, Zhang Z, 2012. Spatiotemporal changes of wheat phenology in China under the effects of temperature, day length and cultivar thermal characteristics.European Journal of Agronomy, 43: 201-212. |
32 | Wei F Y, 2007. Modern Climate Statistics Diagnosis and Prediction Technology. Beijing: China Meteorological Press. (in Chinese) |
33 | Xiong W, Yang J, Wu W B.et al., 2013. Sensitivity and vulnerability of China’s rice production to observed climate change.Acta Ecologica Sinica, 33(2): 509-518. (in Chinese) |
34 |
Xu J W, Ju H, Liu Q.et al., 2014. Variation of drought and regional response to climate change in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain.Acta Ecologica Sinica, 34(2): 460-470. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.5846/stxb201301240148 |
35 | Xu L L, Lv H Q, Fang L, 2014. Effect of climate change on the climate suitability of summer maize on the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain. Resources Science, 36(4): 782-787. (in Chinese) |
36 |
Yang S B, Shen S H, Zhao X Y.et al., 2010. Impacts of climate changes on rice production in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.Acta Agronomica Sinica, 36(9): 1519-1528. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1006.2010.01519 |
37 |
Zhang G L, Dong J W, Zhou C P.et al., 2013. Increasing cropping intensity in response to climate warming in Tibetan Plateau, China.Field Crops Research, 142: 36-46.
doi: 10.1016/j.fcr.2012.11.021 |
[1] | . [J]. 地理学报(英文版), 2016, 26(6): 658-672. |
[2] | . [J]. 地理学报(英文版), 2016, 26(6): 673-693. |
[3] | . [J]. 地理学报(英文版), 2016, 26(4): 397-414. |
[4] | LI Yang, LIU Hui, TANG Qing, LU Dadao, XIAO Ningchuan. Spatial-temporal patterns of China’s interprovincial migration, 1985-2010[J]. , 2014, 24(5): 907-923. |
[5] | TAN Jieyang, YANG Peng, LIU Zhenhuan, WU Wenbin, ZHANG Li, LI Zhipeng, YOU Liangzhi, TANG Huajun, LI Zhengguo. Spatio-temporal dynamics of maize cropping system in Northeast China between 1980 and 2010 by using spatial production allocation model[J]. , 2014, 24(3): 397-410. |
[6] | SI Peng, ZHENG Zuofang, REN Yu, LIANG Dongpo, LI Mingcai, SHU Wenjun. Effects of urbanization on daily temperature extremes in North China[J]. , 2014, 24(2): 349-362. |
[7] | LIU Jiyuan, KUANG Wenhui, ZHANG Zengxiang, XU Xinliang, QIN Yuanwei, NING Jia, ZHOU Wancun, ZHANG Shuwen, LI Rendong, YAN Changzhen, WU Shixin, SHI Xuezheng, JIANG Nan, YU Dongsheng, PAN Xianzhang, CHI Wenfeng. Spatiotemporal characteristics, patterns, and caus-es of land-use changes in China since the late 1980s[J]. , 2014, 24(2): 195-210. |
[8] | YUAN Quanzhi, WU Shaohong, ZHAO Dongsheng, DAI Erfu, CHEN Li, ZHANG Lei. Modeling net primary productivity of the terrestrial ecosystem in China from 1961 to 2005[J]. , 2014, 24(1): 3-17. |
[9] | XU Jinyong, ZHANG Zengxiang, ZHAO Xiaoli, WEN Qingke, ZUO Lijun, WANG Xiao, YI Ling. Spatial and temporal variations of coastlines in northern China (2000-2012)[J]. , 2014, 24(1): 18-32. |
[10] | CHEN Mingxing, HUANG Yongbin, TANG Zhipeng, LU Dadao, LIU Hui, MA Li. The provincial pattern of the relationship between urbanization and economic development in China[J]. , 2014, 24(1): 33-45. |
[11] | WANG Qiong, ZHANG Mingjun, WANG Shengjie, MA Qian, SUN Meiping. Changes in temperature extremes in the Yangtze River Basin, 1962-2011[J]. , 2014, 24(1): 59-75. |
[12] | HE Fanneng, LI Shicheng, ZHANG Xuezhen, GE Quansheng, DAI Junhu. Comparisons of cropland area from multiple datasets over the past 300 years in the traditional cultivated region of China[J]. , 2013, 23(6): 978-990. |
[13] | SUN Jun, PAN Yujun, TANG Maolin, WU Youde. Retrospect and prospect of Geographical Sciences in China:A comparison with the Strategic Directions for Geography in the USA[J]. , 2013, 23(6): 963-977. |
[14] | LIU Zhenhuan, LI Zhengguo, TANG Pengqin, LI Zhipeng, WU Wenbin, YANG Peng, YOU Liangzhi, TANG Huajun. Change analysis of rice area and production in China during the past three decades[J]. , 2013, 23(6): 1005-1018. |
[15] | LIU Xiaona, FENG Zhiming, JIANG Luguang, LI Peng, LIAO Chenhua, YANG Yanzhao, YOU Zhen. Rubber plantation and its relationship with topographical factors in the border region of China, Laos and Myanmar[J]. , 2013, 23(6): 1019-1040. |
|