Journal of Geographical Sciences ›› 2013, Vol. 23 ›› Issue (2): 208-218.doi: 10.1007/s11442-013-1004-z

• Research Articles • 上一篇    下一篇

Response of water resources to climate change and its future trend in the source region of the Yangtze River

LI Lin1,2, SHEN Hongyan1,2, DAI Sheng1,2, LI Hongmei1,2, XIAO Jianshe2   

  1. 1. Qinghai Climate Centre,Xining 810001,China;
    2. Qinghai Key Laboratory of Disaster Preventing and Reducing,Xining 810001,China
  • 收稿日期:2012-10-30 修回日期:2012-12-08 出版日期:2013-02-20 发布日期:2013-02-20
  • 作者简介:Li Lin(1971–),Professor,specialized in climate change and its impact on water resources and environment. E-mail:qhxnll@sohu.com
  • 基金资助:

    Climate Change Science Foundation,No.CCSF2010-05;No.CCSF2011-01

Response of water resources to climate change and its future trend in the source region of the Yangtze River

LI Lin1,2, SHEN Hongyan1,2, DAI Sheng1,2, LI Hongmei1,2, XIAO Jianshe2   

  1. 1. Qinghai Climate Centre,Xining 810001,China;
    2. Qinghai Key Laboratory of Disaster Preventing and Reducing,Xining 810001,China
  • Received:2012-10-30 Revised:2012-12-08 Online:2013-02-20 Published:2013-02-20

摘要:

In this paper,variations of surface water flow and its climatic causes in China are analyzed using hydrological and meteorological observational data,as well as the impact data set(version 2.0)published by the National Climate Center in November 2009.The results indicate that surface water resources showed an increasing trend in the source region of the Yangtze River over the past 51 years,especially after 2004.The trend was very clearly shown,and there were quasi-periods of 9 years and 22 years,where the Tibetan Plateau heating field enhanced the effect,and the plateau monsoon entered a strong period.Pre- cipitation notably increased,and glacier melt water increased due to climate change,all of which are the main climatic causes for increases in water resources in the source region. Based on global climate model prediction,in the SRESA1B climate change scenarios,water resources are likely to increase in this region for the next 20 years.

关键词: climate change, surface water resource, temperature heating field, monsoon, climate model, the source region of the Yangtze River

Abstract:

In this paper,variations of surface water flow and its climatic causes in China are analyzed using hydrological and meteorological observational data,as well as the impact data set(version 2.0)published by the National Climate Center in November 2009.The results indicate that surface water resources showed an increasing trend in the source region of the Yangtze River over the past 51 years,especially after 2004.The trend was very clearly shown,and there were quasi-periods of 9 years and 22 years,where the Tibetan Plateau heating field enhanced the effect,and the plateau monsoon entered a strong period.Pre- cipitation notably increased,and glacier melt water increased due to climate change,all of which are the main climatic causes for increases in water resources in the source region. Based on global climate model prediction,in the SRESA1B climate change scenarios,water resources are likely to increase in this region for the next 20 years.

Key words: climate change, surface water resource, temperature heating field, monsoon, climate model, the source region of the Yangtze River