Journal of Geographical Sciences ›› 2012, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (6): 1045-1060.doi: 10.1007/s11442-012-0982-6

• Hydrology • 上一篇    下一篇

Temporal and spatial variations and statistical models of extreme runoff in Huaihe River Basin during 1956-2010

XIA Jun1,2, DU Hong2, ZENG Sidong2, SHE Dunxian1,3, ZHANG Yongyong3, YAN Ziqi4, YE Yan5,6   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101 China;
    2. State key laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China;
    3. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
    4. China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China;
    5. College of Natural Resources and Environment, Southwest University, Chongqing 400716, China;
    6. College of Water Resources and Hydropower|Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China
  • 收稿日期:2012-01-10 修回日期:2012-03-12 出版日期:2012-12-15 发布日期:2012-12-15
  • 通讯作者: Du Hong (1988-), Ph.D Candidate, E-mail: amydh2005@163.com E-mail:amydh2005@163.com
  • 作者简介:Xia Jun (1954-), Professor, specialized in hydrology and water resources. E-mail: xiaj@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:

    National Basic Research Program of China, No.2010CB428406; The Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, No.20102060201000066

Temporal and spatial variations and statistical models of extreme runoff in Huaihe River Basin during 1956-2010

XIA Jun1,2, DU Hong2, ZENG Sidong2, SHE Dunxian1,3, ZHANG Yongyong3, YAN Ziqi4, YE Yan5,6   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101 China;
    2. State key laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China;
    3. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
    4. China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China;
    5. College of Natural Resources and Environment, Southwest University, Chongqing 400716, China;
    6. College of Water Resources and Hydropower|Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China
  • Received:2012-01-10 Revised:2012-03-12 Online:2012-12-15 Published:2012-12-15

摘要:

Based on the daily runoff data from 20 hydrological stations above the Bengbu Sluice in the Huaihe River Basin during 1956-2010, run test, trend test and Mann-Kendall test are used to analyze the variation trend of annual maximum runoff series. The annual maximum series (AM) and peaks over threshold series (POT) are selected to describe the extreme distributions of generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). Temporal and spatial variations of extreme runoff in the Huaihe River Basin are analyzed. The results show that during the period 1956-2010 in the Huaihe River Basin, annual maximum runoff at 10 stations have a decreasing trend, while the other 10 stations have an unobvious increasing trend. The maximum runoff events almost occurred in the flood period during the 1960s and 1970s. The extreme runoff events in the Huaihe River Basin mainly occurred in the mainstream of the Huaihe River, Huainan mountainous areas, and Funiu mountainous areas. Through Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, GEV and GPD distributions can be well fitted with AM and POT series respectively. Percentile value method, mean excess plot method and certain numbers of peaks over threshold method are used to select threshold, and it is found that percentile value method is the best of all for extreme runoff in the Huaihe River Basin.

关键词: Huaihe River, extreme runoff, extreme distribution, threshold selection

Abstract:

Based on the daily runoff data from 20 hydrological stations above the Bengbu Sluice in the Huaihe River Basin during 1956-2010, run test, trend test and Mann-Kendall test are used to analyze the variation trend of annual maximum runoff series. The annual maximum series (AM) and peaks over threshold series (POT) are selected to describe the extreme distributions of generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). Temporal and spatial variations of extreme runoff in the Huaihe River Basin are analyzed. The results show that during the period 1956-2010 in the Huaihe River Basin, annual maximum runoff at 10 stations have a decreasing trend, while the other 10 stations have an unobvious increasing trend. The maximum runoff events almost occurred in the flood period during the 1960s and 1970s. The extreme runoff events in the Huaihe River Basin mainly occurred in the mainstream of the Huaihe River, Huainan mountainous areas, and Funiu mountainous areas. Through Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, GEV and GPD distributions can be well fitted with AM and POT series respectively. Percentile value method, mean excess plot method and certain numbers of peaks over threshold method are used to select threshold, and it is found that percentile value method is the best of all for extreme runoff in the Huaihe River Basin.

Key words: Huaihe River, extreme runoff, extreme distribution, threshold selection