Journal of Geographical Sciences >
Comparing the driving mechanisms of different types of urban construction land expansion: A case study of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region
Kang Lei (1989-), Assistant Professor, specialized in urban human-land relationship and sustainable development. E-mail: kanglei@igsnrr.ac.cn |
Received date: 2022-12-08
Accepted date: 2023-11-21
Online published: 2024-04-24
Supported by
National Natural Science Foundation of China(42071158)
National Natural Science Foundation of China(42130712)
National Natural Science Foundation of China(41801114)
Different types of urban construction land are different in terms of driving factors for their expansion. Most existing studies on driving forces for urban construction land expansion have considered the construction urban land as a whole and have not examined and compared the differentiated driving forces for different types of construction land expansion. This study explored the differentiated driving mechanisms for two types of urban construction land expansion by selecting key driving factors and using spatial econometric regression and geographical detector models. The results show that there are significant differences in the driving forces for expansion between the two types of urban construction land. The driving factors of urban land expansion do not necessarily affect industrial parks. And the factors acting on expansion of both types are different in influence degree. For urban expansion, economic density growth, the value-added growth of tertiary industries, and proximity to urban centers have a negative effect. However, urbanization levels and value-added growth of secondary industries have a positive effect. The explanatory power of these factors is arranged in the following descending order: value-added growth of tertiary industries, value-added change of secondary industries, urban population growth, economic density growth, and proximity to urban centers; road network density has no significant effect. For industrial parks expansion, the value-added growth of secondary industries and road network density has a positive effect, while economic density growth has a negative effect. The explanatory power is arranged in the following descending order: value-added growth of secondary industries, road network density, and economic density growth. The findings can help implement differentiated and refined urban land use management policies.
KANG Lei , MA Li , LIU Yi . Comparing the driving mechanisms of different types of urban construction land expansion: A case study of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2024 , 34(4) : 722 -744 . DOI: 10.1007/s11442-023-2191-x
Figure 1 Location of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China |
Figure 2 Distribution of expansion for urban land (a) and industrial parks (b) in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2000 to 2020 |
Table 1 Overview of driving factors index |
Index | Representative factor | Calculation method |
---|---|---|
Social economy | X1: Economic density growth | The added value of GDP per unit land area in districts and counties from 2000 to 2020 |
Urbanization development | X2: Urban population change | Changes of urban population in districts and counties from 2000 to 2020 |
Industrial structure | X3: Value-added change of secondary industries | Changes of added value of secondary industries in districts and counties from 2000 to 2020 |
X4: Value-added change of tertiary industries | Changes of added value of tertiary industries in districts and counties from 2000 to 2020 | |
locational conditions | X5: Proximity to urban centers | The distance between the center of each district and the center of its city |
Transportation infrastructure levels | X6: Change of road network density | The ratio of the total length of all provincial roads, highways and railways to the area of the region |
Figure 3 Spatial pattern of land expansion for urban land (a) and industrial parks (b) in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2000 to 2020 |
Table 2 Spatial autocorrelation test results of diverse built-up land expansion from 2000 to 2020 |
Statistics | Urban land | Industrial parks |
---|---|---|
Moran’s I | 0.1315 | 0.2163 |
z-value | 6.2937 | 9.1922 |
p-value | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
Figure 4 Driving factors of urban expansion for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region |
Table 3 Estimation results of regressions for urban land expansion |
Spatial lag model | Estimate | Standard error | z-value | Probability |
---|---|---|---|---|
X1 | -0.001129* | 0.0006342 | -1.8179 | 0.0682 |
X2 | 1.02976*** | 0.129310 | 8.1235 | 0.0000 |
X3 | 0.018215** | 0.037831 | 2.39178 | 0.02127 |
X4 | -0.029534*** | 0.0069793 | -4.2789 | 0.00069 |
X5 | -0.001783** | 8.29E-05 | -3.8251 | 0.0153 |
X6 | 0.009033 | 0.03126 | 0.52565 | 0.83278 |
R-squared: 0.672369, Log likelihood: -767.379 for lag model; AIC: 1583.28; Robust Lagrange multiplier test: 2.832 on 1 DF, p-value: 0.00000 | ||||
Spatial error model | Estimate | Standard error | z-value | Probability |
X1 | -0.0011267** | 0.00058342 | -2.3139 | 0.03785 |
X2 | 1.23687*** | 0.119217 | 7.90312 | 0.0000 |
X3 | 0.0088941** | 0.0051289 | 2.79836 | 0.03551 |
X4 | -0.020539*** | 0.00490218 | -3.34121 | 0.00026 |
X5 | -0.00029788*** | 8.56E-05 | -3.8973 | 0.00702 |
X6 | 0.019718 | 0.03258 | 0.69895 | 0.5033 |
R-squared: 0.66766, Log likelihood: -771.312 for error model; AIC: 1599.12; Robust Lagrange multiplier test: 1.458 on 1 DF, p-value: 0.00000 |
Note: *, **, and *** mean significant at 10%, 5%, and 1% levels, respectively. |
Figure 5 The power of determinant for the five factors affecting the urban land expansion |
Table 4 Estimation results of regressions for industrial parks expansion |
Spatial lag model | Estimate | Standard error | z-value | Probability |
---|---|---|---|---|
X1 | -0.00050198*** | 0.000126872 | -3.9248 | 0.00018 |
X2 | -0.009346 | 0.0413219 | -0.190992 | 0.8563 |
X3 | 0.00512585*** | 0.00167966 | 3.46513 | 0.0033 |
X4 | 0.00127305 | 0.0018791 | 0.831262 | 0.4501 |
X5 | -2.13E-05 | 3.19E-05 | -0.852367 | 0.3236 |
X6 | 0.051706*** | 0.00876089 | 6.21325 | 0.0000 |
R-squared: 0.357898, Log likelihood: -563.69 for lag model; AIC: 1158.71; Robust Lagrange multiplier test: 2.361 on 1 DF, p-value: 0.00000 | ||||
Spatial error model | Estimate | Standard error | z-value | Probability |
X1 | -0.000510216*** | 0.000135802 | -3.91256 | 0.0006 |
X2 | -0.0079802 | 0.0503251 | -0.316875 | 0.82351 |
X3 | 0.00523016*** | 0.001679853 | 3.56137 | 0.00189 |
X4 | 0.00212331 | 0.00176802 | 0.88907 | 0.45058 |
X5 | -2.09E-05 | 2.89E-05 | -0.921336 | 0.35001 |
X6 | 0.0459817*** | 0.00870961 | 5.97982 | 0.0000 |
R-squared: 0.346593, Log likelihood: -567.69 for error model; AIC: 1152.69; Robust Lagrange multiplier test: 1.259 on 1 DF, p-value: 0.00000 |
Figure 6 The power of determinant for the three factors affecting the industrial parks expansion |
Figure 7 Frame diagram for comparative analysis of driving forces for two types of built-up land expansion |
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