Journal of Geographical Sciences >
Polycentric urban development with state-led administrative division adjustment: A policy insight for urban spatial transformation
Chen Youlin (1997-), PhD Candidate, specialized in human geography and regional economy. E-mail: chenyoulin@whu.edu.cn |
Received date: 2023-02-10
Accepted date: 2023-09-12
Online published: 2023-12-14
Supported by
National Social Science Foundation of China(18ZDA040)
Humanities and Social Sciences Planning Project of the Ministry of Education in China(19YJA630079)
Polycentric urban development has profound impacts on urban development worldwide. Most studies have identified its complex drivers of social economy and natural condition while ignoring the state-led policy factors. In recent years, China has undergone dramatic administrative division adjustment (ADA) during the process of unique state-led urbanization. However, as a crucial government strategy, the impacts of ADA on urban polycentricity remain unclear. This research investigates the relationship between ADA and urban polycentricity through spatial difference-in-differences models. The results reveal that ADA has contributed to the polycentric urban development in China. Specifically, boundary restructuring has more substantial impacts than hierarchy reorganization. In addition, ADA has significantly promoted urban polycentricity in local cities in central China and neighbouring cities in eastern China, while it has no significant effects in western China. Furthermore, ADA reshapes urban polycentricity mainly by the influencing mechanism of construction land and industrial structure. Policymakers should consider the various ADA’s impacts on urban polycentricity with socio-economic conditions. This research provides a deeper insight into urban spatial transformation with state-led drivers.
CHEN Youlin , YU Peiheng , WANG Lei , CHEN Yiyun , YUNG Hiu Kwan Esther . Polycentric urban development with state-led administrative division adjustment: A policy insight for urban spatial transformation[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2023 , 33(12) : 2400 -2424 . DOI: 10.1007/s11442-023-2182-y
Figure 1 Conceptual framework of polycentric urban development with administrative division adjustment |
Figure 2 The geographic location of cities that implemented administrative division adjustment between 2013 and 2018Note: This map is based on the standard map with approval number GS(2020)4619 downloaded from the standard map service website of the National Bureau of Surveying, Mapping, and Geographic Information, and the base map has not been modified. |
Table 1 Definition and statistical description of the variables |
Initials | Variables | Units | Mean | Standard deviation | Min | Max |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
POLY | Urban polycentricity index | — | 0.5199 | 0.1289 | 0.0093 | 0.9574 |
ADA | Administrative division adjustment | — | 0.2263 | 0.4185 | 0.0000 | 1.0000 |
BR | Boundary restructuring | — | 0.0882 | 0.2836 | 0.0000 | 1.0000 |
HR | Hierarchy reorganization | — | 0.1891 | 0.3917 | 0.0000 | 1.0000 |
SE | Proportion of secondary industrial output in the national output | % | 0.4579 | 0.1136 | 0.0800 | 0.9205 |
RA | Paved road area per capita | 102 m | 0.1364 | 0.0918 | 0.0117 | 1.0837 |
TS | Ratio of population in tertiary sector to the total population | % | 0.5293 | 0.1441 | 0.1657 | 0.9448 |
CA | Number of cars in circulation | 104 cars | 0.1699 | 0.3325 | 0.0046 | 3.8728 |
IE | Net investment in real estate | 1011 yuan | 0.2739 | 0.5501 | 0.0007 | 4.2363 |
Figure 3 Regions with administrative division adjustment and population centers of four cities in China from 2013 to 2018. (a) Shanghai, (b) Hangzhou, (c) Chongqing and (d) Tianjin |
Figure 4 The spatiotemporal evolution of urban polycentricity in China in different years: (a) 2013, (b) 2014, (c) 2015, (d) 2016, (e) 2017 and (f) 2018Note: This map is based on the standard map with approval number GS(2020)4619 downloaded from the standard map service website of the National Bureau of Surveying, Mapping, and Geographic Information, and the base map has not been modified. |
Table 2 The global Moran’s I index of polycentric urban structure |
Year | Moran’s I | Z-score | P-value | Year | Moran’s I | Z-score | P-value |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2013 | 0.1853 | 4.5504 | 0.001*** | 2014 | 0.2306 | 5.7033 | 0.001*** |
2015 | 0.2233 | 5.5953 | 0.001*** | 2016 | 0.2229 | 5.5471 | 0.001*** |
2017 | 0.1831 | 4.6207 | 0.001*** | 2018 | 0.1822 | 4.5747 | 0.001*** |
Note: *** reflects the significance of 1%. |
Figure 5 The scatter plots of global Moran’s I index in different years: (a) 2013, (b) 2014, (c) 2015, (d) 2016, (e) 2017 and (f) 2018 |
Figure 6 The parallel trend test results of the SDID model |
Table 3 The selection test of the SDID model |
Variables | Statistics | Variables | Statistics | Variables | Statistics |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
LM lag | 26.778*** | LR lag | 22.98*** | Wald lag | 19.84** |
LM error | 20.354*** | LR error | 20.72*** | Wald error | 17.58** |
Notes: ***, and ** respectively reflect the significance of 1%, and 5%. |
Table 4 Benchmark regression results of the OLS and SDID models |
Variables | Mixed OLS Model | SDM-based SDID Model | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
(1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | |
ADA | 0.0353*** (0.0074) | 0.0065* (0.0037) | ||||
BR | 0.0445*** (0.0106) | 0.0283*** (0.0063) | ||||
HR | 0.0373*** (0.0078) | 0.0061* (0.0033) | ||||
SE | 0.0083 (0.0321) | 0.0165 (0.0322) | 0.0092 (0.0321) | 0.0338*** (0.0149) | 0.0378** (0.0148) | 0.0349*** (0.0149) |
RA | -0.0257 (0.0329) | -0.0345 (0.0329) | -0.0214 (0.0331) | 0.0007 (0.0314) | 0.0035 (0.0306) | -0.0019 (0.0311) |
TS | -0.05654** (0.0253) | -0.0466* (0.0252) | -0.0516** (0.0252) | 0.0228 (0.0227) | 0.0178 (0.0225) | 0.0229 (0.0226) |
CA | 0.0422*** (0.0156) | 0.0413*** (0.0156) | 0.0451*** (0.0156) | -0.0077 (0.0142) | -0.0113 (0.0141) | -0.0075 (0.0141) |
IE | 0.0539*** (0.0095) | 0.0584*** (0.0094) | 0.0522*** (0.0095) | -0.0189*** (0.0066) | -0.0202*** (0.0066) | -0.0169*** (0.0066) |
W ADA | 0.1597*** (0.0571) | |||||
W BR | 0.3073*** (0.0923) | |||||
W HR | 0.2418*** (0.0554) | |||||
W SE | -0.0696 (0.1001) | 0.0774 (0.1039) | 0.0408 (0.0994) | |||
W RA | 1.0822*** (0.3689) | 0.6714** (0.3181) | 1.2121*** (0.3511) | |||
W TS | -0.1786 (0.3061) | -0.3325 (0.3012) | -0.0722 (0.3062) | |||
W CA | 0.0816 (0.2196) | -0.0012 (0.2191) | -0.0352 (0.2206) | |||
W IE | 0.0567 (0.0821) | -0.0005 (0.0828) | 0.1507* (0.0845) | |||
cons | 0.5196*** (0.0257) | 0.5147*** (0.0258) | 0.5168*** (0.0257) | |||
City FE | No | No | No | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Year FE | No | No | No | Yes | Yes | Yes |
R2 | 0.1392 | 0.1365 | 0.1390 | 0.0104 | 0.0324 | 0.0105 |
Observations | 1644 | 1644 | 1644 | 1644 | 1644 | 1644 |
Note: Inside the bracket is the standard error. ***, **, and * respectively reflect the significance of 1%, 5%, and 10%. |
Table 5 The direct, indirect and total effects of SDID model in columns (4), (5) and (6) of Table 4 |
Variables | ADA | BR | HR | SE | RA | TS | CA | IE | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Direct effect | (4) | 0.0065* (0.0038) | 0.0332** (0.0145) | 0.0032 (0.0299) | 0.0227 (0.0221) | -0.0076 (0.0138) | -0.0187*** (0.0066) | ||
(5) | 0.0279*** (0.0064) | 0.0371*** (0.0144) | 0.0055 (0.0292) | 0.0182 (0.0218) | -0.0112 (0.0137) | -0.0198*** (0.0065) | |||
(6) | 0.0055 (0.0038) | 0.0344** (0.0144) | -0.0019 (0.0295) | 0.0229 (0.0219) | -0.0073 (0.0137) | -0.0171*** (0.0065) | |||
Indirect effect | (4) | 0.1515*** (0.0589) | -0.0702 (0.0925) | 1.0515*** (0.3664) | -0.1538 (0.2922) | 0.0756 (0.2112) | 0.0611 (0.0824) | ||
(5) | 0.2611*** (0.0845) | 0.0596 (0.0926) | 0.6012** (0.2779) | -0.2755 (0.2626) | -0.0017 (0.1904) | 0.0079 (0.0756) | |||
(6) | 0.1943*** (0.0476) | -0.0418 (0.0792) | 1.0006*** (0.2902) | -0.0487 (0.2489) | -0.0291 (0.1791) | 0.1305* (0.0725) | |||
Total effect | (4) | 0.1581*** (0.0596) | -0.0369 (0.0907) | 1.0547*** (0.3683) | -0.1311 (0.2933) | 0.0681 (0.2126) | 0.0424 (0.0833) | ||
(5) | 0.2891*** (0.0851) | 0.2892*** (0.0852) | 0.6066** (0.2776) | -0.2573 (0.2636) | -0.0128 (0.1915) | -0.0118 (0.0763) | |||
(6) | 0.1998*** (0.0481) | -0.0073 (0.0772) | 0.9987*** (0.2902) | -0.0258 (0.2493) | -0.0364 (0.1799) | 0.1135 (0.0734) |
Note: Inside the bracket is the standard error. ***, **, and * respectively reflect the significance of 1%, 5%, and 10%. |
Table 6 The heterogeneity analysis of administrative division adjustment on urban polycentricity |
Variables | (1) | (2) | (3) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Direct effect | ADA×EAST | 0.0063 (0.0048) | ||
ADA×CENTER | 0.0139** (0.0071) | |||
ADA×WEST | -0.0061 (0.0071) | |||
Indirect effect | ADA×EAST | 0.1775*** (0.0565) | ||
ADA×CENTER | -0.1407 (0.1464) | |||
ADA×WEST | -0.0549 (0.0683) | |||
Control variable | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
City FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
Year FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
R2 | 0.0046 | 0.0014 | 0.0012 | |
Observations | 1644 | 1644 | 1644 |
Notes: Inside the bracket is the standard error. ***, and ** respectively reflect the significance of 1%, and 5%. |
Table 7 The mechanism analysis of administrative division adjustment on urban polycentricity |
Variables | (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) |
---|---|---|---|---|
CL | POLY | IS | POLY | |
ADA | 0.2401*** (0.0698) | 0.0057* (0.0032) | 0.0838** (0.0387) | 0.0061* (0.0035) |
CL | -0.0025* (0.0014) | |||
IS | 0.0074*** (0.0024) | |||
Control variable | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Year FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
City FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
R2 | 0.0031 | 0.0209 | 0.0008 | 0.0108 |
Observations | 1644 | 1644 | 1644 | 1644 |
Notes: Inside the bracket is the standard error. ***, **, and * respectively reflect the significance of 1%, 5%, and 10%. |
Table 8 The robustness test of administrative division adjustment on urban polycentricity |
Variables | (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ADA | 0.0056* (0.0032) | 0.0060* (0.0032) | 0.0062* (0.0037) | 0.0062* (0.0036) | 0.0059* (0.0032) |
W ADA | 0.1185** (0.0506) | 0.1552*** (0.0598) | 0.1383** (0.0595) | 0.1558*** (0.0573) | 0.1359** (0.0596) |
Control variable | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Year FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
City FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
R2 | 0.0123 | 0.0119 | 0.0086 | 0.0112 | 0.0094 |
Observations | 1644 | 1620 | 1644 | 1644 | 1644 |
Notes: Inside the bracket is the standard error. ***, **, and * respectively reflect the significance of 1%, 5%, and 10%. |
Figure 7 Policy related to administrative division adjustment and urbanization |
[1] |
|
[2] |
|
[3] |
|
[4] |
|
[5] |
|
[6] |
|
[7] |
|
[8] |
|
[9] |
|
[10] |
|
[11] |
|
[12] |
|
[13] |
|
[14] |
|
[15] |
|
[16] |
|
[17] |
|
[18] |
|
[19] |
|
[20] |
|
[21] |
|
[22] |
|
[23] |
|
[24] |
|
[25] |
|
[26] |
|
[27] |
|
[28] |
|
[29] |
|
[30] |
|
[31] |
|
[32] |
|
[33] |
|
[34] |
|
[35] |
|
[36] |
|
[37] |
|
[38] |
|
[39] |
|
[40] |
|
[41] |
|
[42] |
|
[43] |
|
[44] |
|
[45] |
|
[46] |
|
[47] |
|
[48] |
|
[49] |
|
[50] |
|
[51] |
|
[52] |
|
[53] |
|
[54] |
|
[55] |
|
[56] |
|
[57] |
|
[58] |
|
[59] |
|
[60] |
|
[61] |
|
[62] |
|
[63] |
|
[64] |
|
[65] |
|
[66] |
|
[67] |
|
[68] |
|
[69] |
|
[70] |
|
[71] |
|
[72] |
|
[73] |
|
[74] |
|
/
〈 | 〉 |