Journal of Geographical Sciences >
Quantify the impacts of climate variability and anthropogenic activities on runoff: With an improved double mass curve method
Zhou Junju (1972-), Associate Professor, specialized in climate and land use/cover change and ecohydrology. E-mail: yzh_su@163.com |
Received date: 2022-06-21
Accepted date: 2023-07-19
Online published: 2023-11-15
Supported by
National Natural Science Foundation of China(42361005)
National Natural Science Foundation of China(41861034)
National Natural Science Foundation of China(41661040)
National Natural Science Foundation of China(32060373)
Quantitative assessments of the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on runoff help us to better understand the mechanisms of hydrological processes. This study analyzed the dynamics of mountainous runoff in the upper reaches of the Shiyang River Basin (USRB) and its sub-catchments, and quantified the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff using the improved double mass curve (IDMC) method, which comprehensively considers the effects of precipitation and evapotranspiration on runoff, instead of only considering precipitation as before. The results indicated that the annual runoff depth in the USRB showed a slightly increased trend from 1961 to 2018, and sub-catchments were increased in the west and decreased in the east. The seasonal distribution pattern of runoff depth in the USRB and its eight sub-catchments all showed the largest in summer, followed by autumn and spring, and the smallest in winter with an increasing trend. Quantitative assessment results using the IDMC method showed that the runoff change in the USRB is more significantly affected by climate change, however, considerable differences are evident in sub-catchments. This study further developed and improved the method of runoff attribution analysis conducted at watershed scale, and these results will contribute to the ecological protection and sustainable utilization of water resources in the USRB and similar regions.
ZHOU Junju , XUE Dongxiang , YANG Lanting , LIU Chunfang , WEI Wei , YANG Xuemei , ZHAO Yaru . Quantify the impacts of climate variability and anthropogenic activities on runoff: With an improved double mass curve method[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2023 , 33(11) : 2237 -2256 . DOI: 10.1007/s11442-023-2174-y
Figure 1 Location of the study area (upper reaches of the Shiyang River Basin) |
Table 1 Longitude, latitude, and elevation of the hydrological stations in the upper reaches of the Shiyang River Basin |
Catchments | Hydrological station | Latitude (°N) | Longitude (°E) | Elevation (m) | T (℃) | P (mm) | Ep (mm) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XD | Xidahe Reservoir | 38°03'00" | 101°22'59" | 2880 | 1.29 | 439.20 | 982.39 |
DD | Shagousi | 38°01'00" | 101°57'00" | 2360 | 0.69 | 475.59 | 953.87 |
XY | Jiutiaoling | 37°52'00" | 102°3'00" | 2270 | -0.45 | 528.41 | 889.66 |
JT | Nanying Reservoir | 37°48'00" | 102°31'00" | 1940 | 0.62 | 478.91 | 926.73 |
ZM | Zamusi | 37°42'00" | 102°34'00" | 2010 | 1.20 | 440.24 | 951.62 |
HY | Huangyang Reservoir | 37°34'00" | 102°43'00" | 2070 | 0.47 | 442.03 | 897.04 |
GL | Gulang | 37°25'59" | 102°54'00" | 2072 | 0.75 | 409.42 | 889.54 |
DJ | Dajingxia Reservoir | 37°22'59" | 103°21'00" | 2175 | 3.38 | 320.54 | 1003.96 |
Note: The time period of the mean values of T, P, and Ep is from 1961 to 2018. |
Figure 2 Improvement steps of the DMC method |
Figure 3 The average of runoff depth and change trend in the upper reaches of the Shiyang River Basin (USRB) and its sub-catchments from 1961 to 2018 (a); runoff coefficient and change trend in the USRB and its sub-catchments from 1961 to 2018 (b) |
Figure 4 Seasonal variation trend of runoff depth in the upper reaches of the Shiyang River Basin and its sub-catchments from 1961 to 2018 (* indicates that the test has passed the significance level of 0.05) |
Figure 5 Detection of breakpoints based on the cumulative anomaly method in the upper reaches of the Shiyang River Basin and its sub-catchments from 1961 to 2018 |
Table 2 The contributions of climate change and anthropogenic activities to runoff change in the upper reaches of the Shiyang River Basin and its sub-catchments calculated using the IDMC method |
Catchment | Baseline period | Variation period | ∆Rtotal (mm) | ∆Rclimate (mm) | ∆Rhuman (mm) | Cclimate (%) | Chuman (%) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XD | 1961-2002 | 2002-2018 | 37.81 | 36.46 | 1.35 | 96.43 | 3.57 |
DD | 1961-2002 | 2002-2018 | 19.73 | 18.11 | 1.62 | 91.78 | 8.22 |
XY | 1961-2002 | 2002-2018 | 23.17 | 23.48 | -0.32 | 101.37 | -1.37 |
JT | 1961-1990 | 1990-2018 | -12.31 | 0.21 | -12.52 | -1.68 | 101.68 |
ZM | 1961-2002 | 2002-2018 | 20.30 | 31.86 | -11.56 | 156.94 | -56.94 |
HY | 1961-1994 | 1994-2018 | -13.23 | 10.40 | -23.62 | -78.64 | 178.64 |
GL | 1961-1994 | 1994-2018 | -13.78 | 7.47 | -21.25 | -54.25 | 154.25 |
DJ | 1961-2004 | 2004-2018 | -3.41 | 1.49 | -4.90 | -43.54 | 143.54 |
USRB | 1961-2002 | 2002-2018 | 11.61 | 21.06 | -9.45 | 181.45 | -81.45 |
Note: The “-” in the change amount indicates that the runoff is reduced; the “-” in the contribution rate means that the impact of climate change or anthropogenic activities on runoff is opposite to the actual change in runoff. |
Figure 6 Relationship between Pe and runoff depth in the upper reaches of the Shiyang River Basin and its sub-catchments from 1961 to 2018 |
Figure 7 Variations in PCC and PD in the sub-catchments of the upper reaches of the Shiyang River Basin |
Figure 8 Water use structure of Gulang and Tianzhu counties |
Figure S1 Annual temperature and precipitation in the upper reaches of the Shiyang River Basin (USRB) from 1961 to 2018 (a); Annual potential evapotranspiration and actual evapotranspiration in the USRB from 1961 to 2018 (b) |
Table S1 The formula used to calculate potential evapotranspiration |
Equation | References | |
---|---|---|
a | $E{{T}_{0-PM}}=\frac{0.408\Delta {{R}_{n}}-G+\gamma \frac{900}{T+273}{{\mu }_{2}}\left( {{e}_{s}}-{{e}_{a}} \right)}{\Delta +\gamma 1+0.34{{\mu }_{2}}}$ | (Allen-Wardell et al., 1998) |
b | $E{{T}_{0-H}}={{C}_{0}}{{R}_{a}}\left( \frac{{{T}_{min}}+{{T}_{min}}}{2}+17.8 \right)\times {{\left( {{T}_{\max }}-{{T}_{min}} \right)}^{1/2}}$, C0 =2.3×10–3 | (Hargreaves and Allen, 2003) |
c | $E{{T}_{0-PM}}=0.404E{{T}_{0-H}}+0.493,\text{ }{{R}^{2}}=0.91$ | This study |
Figure S2 The inter-annual variation trend of runoff in the upper reaches of the Shiyang River Basin and its sub-catchments from 1961 to 2018 |
Figure S3 The seasonal variation trends of runoff in the upper reaches of the Shiyang River Basin and its sub-catchments from 1961 to 2018 |
Table S2 The contributions of climate change and anthropogenic activities to runoff in the upper reaches of the Shiyang River Basin and its sub-catchments calculated with the DMC method |
Catchment | Baseline period | Variation period | ∆Rtotal (mm) | ∆Rclimate (mm) | ∆Rhuman (mm) | Cclimate (%) | Chuman (%) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XD | 1961-2002 | 2002-2018 | 37.81 | 30.70 | 7.10 | 81.21 | 18.78 |
DD | 1961-2002 | 2002-2018 | 22.14 | 20.09 | 2.05 | 90.72 | 9.28 |
XY | 1961-2002 | 2002-2018 | 23.17 | 24.21 | -1.04 | 104.48 | -4.48 |
JT | 1961-1990 | 1990-2018 | -9.21 | -8.05 | -1.15 | 87.44 | 12.56 |
ZM | 1961- 2002 | 2002-2018 | 5.04 | 7.92 | -12.94 | -157.09 | 257.09 |
HY | 1961- 1994 | 1994-2018 | -8.37 | 7.31 | -15.68 | -87.28 | 187.28 |
GL | 1961- 1994 | 1994-2018 | -11.75 | 9.00 | -20.76 | -76.61 | 176.61 |
DJ | 1961- 2004 | 2004-2018 | -4.21 | 1.03 | -5.24 | -24.49 | 124.49 |
USRB | 1961-2002 | 2002-2018 | 11.61 | 17.88 | -6.27 | 154.09 | -54.09 |
Note: The “-” in the change amount indicates that the runoff is reduced; the “-” in the contribution rate means that the impact of climate change or anthropogenic activities on runoff is opposite to the actual change in runoff. |
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