Research Articles

Vertical distribution changes in land cover between 1990 and 2015 within the Koshi River Basin, Central Himalayas

  • WU Xue , 1, 2 ,
  • PAUDEL Basanta 1 ,
  • ZHANG Yili , 1, 3, * ,
  • LIU Linshan 1 ,
  • WANG Zhaofeng 1, 3 ,
  • XIE Fangdi 1 ,
  • GAO Jungang 4 ,
  • SUN Xiaomin 2
Expand
  • 1. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
  • 2. Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
  • 3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • 4. Texas A&M AgriLife, Blackland Res & Extens Ctr, Temple, TX 76502, USA
*Zhang Yili (1962-), Professor, E-mail:

Wu Xue (1989-), Postdoctoral Researcher, specialized in land use and land cover change and its ecological effect.E-mail:

Received date: 2020-11-27

  Accepted date: 2021-08-10

  Online published: 2021-12-25

Supported by

The Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research(2019QZKK0603)

Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA20040201)

National Natural Science Foundation of China(41761144081)

Abstract

The study of mountain vertical natural belts is an important component in the study of regional differentiation. These areas are especially sensitive to climate change and have indicative function, which is the core of three-dimensional zonality research. Thus, based on high precision land cover and digital elevation model (DEM) data, and supported by MATLAB and ArcGIS analyses, this paper aimed to study the present situation and changes of the land cover vertical belts between 1990 and 2015 on the northern and southern slopes of the Koshi River Basin (KRB). Results showed that the vertical belts on both slopes were markedly different from one another. The vertical belts on the southern slope were mainly dominated by cropland, forest, bare land, and glacier and snow cover. In contrast, grassland, bare land, sparse vegetation, glacier and snow cover dominated the northern slope. Study found that the main vertical belts across the KRB within this region have not changed substantially over the past 25 years. In contrast, on the southern slope, the upper limits of cropland and bare land have moved to higher elevation, while the lower limits of forest and glacier and snow cover have moved to higher elevation. The upper limit of alpine grassland on the northern slope retreated and moved to higher elevation, while the lower limits of glacier and snow cover and vegetation moved northward to higher elevations. Changes in the vertical belt were influenced by climate change and human activities over time. Cropland was mainly controlled by human activities and climate warming, and the reduced precipitation also led to the abandonment of cropland, at least to a certain extent. Changes in grassland and forest ecosystems were predominantly influenced by both human activities and climate change. At the same time, glacier and snow cover far away from human activities was also mainly influenced by climate warming.

Cite this article

WU Xue , PAUDEL Basanta , ZHANG Yili , LIU Linshan , WANG Zhaofeng , XIE Fangdi , GAO Jungang , SUN Xiaomin . Vertical distribution changes in land cover between 1990 and 2015 within the Koshi River Basin, Central Himalayas[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2021 , 31(10) : 1419 -1436 . DOI: 10.1007/s11442-021-1904-2

1 Introduction

Mountains are important and complex ecosystems within the global system, influenced by a range of climate and landscape features (Zhang et al., 2006; Xiao et al., 2010). The most basic characteristic of mountains is the vertical differentiation of climate, vegetation, soil, and the entire natural complex, forming an altitudinal belt spectrum with a certain order and structural arrangement that can reflect their natural characteristics (Sun, 2008; Zhao et al., 2020). The mountain altitudinal belts exhibit vertical differentiation characteristics and conform to three-dimensional zonality within a horizontal natural zone (Sun, 2008).
The vertical mountain belt spectrum has also changed dramatically under the influence of climate change over time (Qi et al., 2013). In particular, mountain vertical belt has proven to be especially sensitive to climate change, where variations are important indicators of this phenomenon (Xu et al., 2009; Guo et al., 2019). The vertical belt is a manifestation of altitudinal zoning, a geographic distribution area defined by environmental constraints related to elevation (Sun and Cheng, 2014; Mansur et al., 2016). This means that the vertical belt is vulnerable to climate change (Zhao et al., 2020), the upper and lower boundaries of this belt encompass several special boundaries which not only influence regional scale but are also important geographic elements of global environmental change (Cavieres et al., 2000; Bu et al., 2003; Sieg and Danie, 2005; Mansur et al., 2016). Changes in forest lines (Brunschon and Behling, 2010; Bryn and Potthoff, 2018), tree lines (Parveen, 2017; Bryn and Potthoff, 2018; Mohapatra et al., 2019), and snow lines (Hu et al., 2019; Rastner et al., 2019) as well as the upper limit of grassland (Li et al., 2018; Li et al., 2019) have all been assessed by researchers. In a case, Bryn and Potthoff (2018) analyzed literatures related to changes in the Norwegian forest line, and found that while most previous research suggests that the forest line was elevated, variability was also high which indicates the main trend in this country since the 1920s. Bryn and Potthoff (2018) also showed that climate and land use changes have been the main factors influencing Norwegian forest line variations. In similar work, Mohapatra et al. (2019), using satellite remote sensing determined that global warming has induced the alpine tree line to migrate to higher elevations across the Arunachal Pradesh Himalayas over the past four decades. Thus, given a global warming background, glacial retreat has been the main trend while the bulk of snow lines tended to increase. Variation in climatic conditions across different regions meant that the speed of snow line retreat has been very different (Hu et al., 2019). In another study, Li et al. (2018) found that climate warming increased the biomass of alpine meadows and decreased this variable on alpine steppes while both benefited from increased precipitation and soil moisture. Overgrazing has been the main cause of alpine grassland degradation in local areas with highly intensified human activities. Changes in forest and snow lines at boundaries of the vertical belts will inevitably lead to variations in distribution range, bandwidth, and width of the vertical belts while internal ecotone vegetation structure between the two belts will also be modified.
Numerous vertical belt classification systems are currently utilized based mainly on vegetation, soil, geomorphology, and climatic zones as well as eco-geographical types (Zhang et al., 2004; Xiao et al., 2010). We consider the vertical belts based on montane vegetation types as the additional systematic spatiotemporal data in this study, especially spatial continuous records needed for research in this area. Traditional studies on assessing mountain vertical belts are mostly based on discrete point data as well as lines obtained from field investigations or other interpretations, therefore those data lack continuity, accuracy, and timeliness (Xiao et al., 2010; Zhang et al., 2020). A single point or line was often used to represent dispersion of a whole mountain; this means that the boundary of a band spectrum will be fuzzy and affect the subsequent quantitative analysis (Zhang et al., 2020). Considerable limitations and incomplete information therefore remain regarding the spatial distribution of vertical belts (Xiao et al., 2010; Guo et al., 2019). It remains very difficult to obtain or update the continuous vertical mountain belts over large scales (Mohapatra et al., 2019). It is therefore urgent for researchers to extract sequence spectra across the vertical belt using RS data in this era of mature 3S technology.
This study utilizes high-precision land cover data that reflect the natural state of the Earth’s surface including areas that have been influenced by natural processes and human activities in order to analyze changes in the Himalayan vertical belts as well as influencing factors. This research is important to our understanding of land cover spatial differentiation and provides a novel perspective on mountain vertical belts.

2 Data and methods

The Koshi River Basin (KRB) is an important transboundary basin within the Central Himalayas as it spans China, Nepal, and India. On the basis of vertical belt analysis, this study examines only the Chinese and Nepalese part of the entire basin. The KRB ranges between 85°22°-88°21° E and 26°47°-29°12° N (Figure 1), covering a basin area of 53,988.4 km2 (Wu et al., 2017). The KRB has the largest altitudinal differences in the world, and forms the most complete altitudinal belt in the world, which is the most ideal area for studying the mountain vertical belt (Zhang et al., 2013). As the Himalayas block the warm monsoon in the northern Indian Ocean and weaken the cold current to the south, different vertical natural belts have formed on the northern and southern slopes of Mt. Qomolangma. Deep forest covered gullies are seen on the southern slope while broad valleys and basins are found to the northern slope, covered with grassland vegetation (Wu et al. 2017; Wu et al. 2020).
Figure 1 Location and boundary of the Koshi River Basin (Boundary of the Tibetan Plateau quoted from Zhang et al., 2021)

2.1 Data sources

The data used in this study encompass land cover, climate, and digital elevation model (DEM). Land cover data of the KRB in 1990 and 2015 with a resolution of 30 m were provided by the Land Change and Regional Adaptation Research Group of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). Interpretation accuracy of the land cover type with land cover data of the KRB was 83.36%. The meteorological data used included station data and raster data. The station data were taken from the five meteorological stations within the Chinese KRB, covering the period between 2000 and 2018 and the station data of the Nepalese KRB region were taken from Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Government of Nepal. Raster meteorological data encompass 0.5° spatial resolution Climate Research Unit (CRU) TS 4.03 data released by this group at the University of East Anglia (https://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/ data). Additional interpolated meteorological data included average temperature, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature as well as average precipitation. DEM data at a 30-m resolution (Aster GDEM) were downloaded from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (http://earthexplorer.usgs.gov/).

2.2 Methods

2.2.1 Dividing northern and southern slopes

One common method used to divide the KRB is to take the Himalayan ridgeline as the boundary between northern and southern wings (Pang et al., 2012; He et al., 2015). Indeed, earlier research has often focused on using a single line extending from the bottom to the top of either the southern or northern slope. However, in this method of division, the northern slope includes all aspects of the mountains on the northern slope, and so is on the southern slope (Xu et al., 2006; Ji et al., 2018). This means that the all aspects of the whole mountains on the northern slope are included on the northern slope as well as the southern slope, and so is on the southern slope. This study therefore uses a narrow definition of both slopes; we extracted north aspect of all mountains (337.5°-22.5°) of the northern wing and used them to define the northern slope and then did the same for south aspect of all directions (157.5°-202.5°) on the southern wing as the southern slope (Zhang et al., 2020).

2.2.2 Statistical analysis of vertical belt of land cover

The main purpose of this study was to extract and overlay land cover and DEM data. The mask extraction method in the software ArcGIS (Environmental Systems Research Institute, Redlands, CA, USA) was used to extract land cover data based on the vector data of northern and southern slopes (Pang et al., 2012). Land cover and DEM data were then overlaid. We initially extracted land cover and elevation data from the northern slope and converted them to ASCII code format. The software MATLAB was then used to program and overlay land cover and elevation data, so that the proportion of land cover types across a 100-m elevation gradient could be calculated. The proportion of land cover types across a 100-m elevation gradient on the southern slope were then also calculated (Zhang et al., 2020).

2.2.3 The influence of climate on vertical belt changes

A logistic regression model implemented in the software SPSS was used to analyze the driving forces controlling vertical belt changes. Logistic regression is a nonlinear probability approach that can be divided into two categories and multi-classification models (Fang et al., 2015). We utilized a binary logistic regression approach in this analysis such that the dependent variable y only has two values, ‘yes’ and ‘no’, recorded as 1 and 0 (Zhang et al., 2013; Gao et al., 2014). This logistic regression model does not need to assume that input variables satisfy a multivariate normal distribution but rather uses a maximum likelihood estimation method to determine parameters (Xie et al., 2021). The results are provided in event probability form, and are calculated as follows:
$Y=\ln \left[\frac{P}{1-P}\right]=\beta_{0}+\beta_{1} x_{1}+\beta_{2} x_{2}+\beta_{3} x_{3}+\cdots \cdots+\beta_{n} x_{n}$
where P denotes the probability of an event occurring in case n, while β0 is constant, and β1, β2, β3, …, βn denote regression coefficients. These coefficients indicate that change in each independent variable unit corresponds to a dependent variable change (Zhang et al., 2013).
Climate change is known to be one of the main factors influencing vertical belts. One of the aims of this paper is therefore to understand the influence and effect of different climate factors on vertical belt changes. The driving forces selected here are mainly climate related, including changes in annual average temperature, precipitation, annual maximum and minimum temperatures.

3 Results and analysis

3.1 Vertical patterns in land cover on the northern and southern slopes in 2015

Land cover types in the KRB mainly include cropland, forest, shrubland, grassland, sparse vegetation, waterbody, built-up area, wetland, bare land, glacier and snow cover. It is obvious that the area and proportion of land cover types are different with the increase of elevation. Results show that cropland, forest, shrubland, grassland, sparse vegetation, bare land and glacier and snow cover are distributed from low to high elevations, generally consistent with the natural belt distributional trends. However, vertical distribution characteristics on both slopes are quite different.
Peak values for the distribution of main land cover types (i.e., forest land, shrubland, grassland, sparse vegetation, and bare land) within each elevation range also rose with elevation (Figures 2a and 2b). The peak value is the highest distribution ratio for one land cover type at a certain altitude. As the Himalayas block the warm and humid air flow of the Indian Ocean, the northern slope experiences little precipitation, and the climate is cold and arid, which has the features of the typical continental plateau. Most parts of the northern slope is over 4000 m, resulting in the loss of the vegetation zone below this elevation. In terms of the number of peak values, most land cover types conform to a unimodal distribution (i.e., a single peak value) with the increase of elevation. On the northern slope, land cover types that follow a unimodal distribution mainly include cropland (peak at 4200 m), forest (3700 m), grassland (4700 m), sparse vegetation (5100 m), waterbody (4000 m), wetland (4100 m) and glacier and snow cover (5800 m). It is also the case that other types of land cover exhibit bimodal distributions as built-up area, shrubland and bare land for they have two peaks. One peak of built-up area is distributed at 4100 m, which is the maximum peak, and the other one at 4400 m; one peak of shrubland is distributed at 4100 m, and the other one at 4500 m; one peak of bare land is distributed at 5000 m, and the other one at 5300 m, which is the maximum peak. However, hydrothermal conditions on the southern slope are especially abundant due to the strong influence of warm and moist air currents from the Indian Ocean. The relative height difference from the foothill to the mountain top is large, indicating that the combination of water and heat varies greatly with the elevation. Land cover types that follow a unimodal distribution on the southern slope mainly include cropland (peak at 1400 m), forest (2000 m), grassland (4900 m), sparse vegetation (5300 m), built-up area (1500 m), bare land (5500 m), and glacier and snow cover (5700 m) (Figure 2b). These peaks also appear successively with elevation. Shrubland, waterbody and wetland follow a bimodal distribution. One peak of shrubland is at 2300 m and the other one at 3100 m; one peak of waterbody is at 300 m and the other one at 5300 m; one peak of wetland is at 300 m and the other one at 4600 m (Figure 2b).
Figure 2 Altitudinal distributions of different land cover types in the Koshi River Basin (a. northern slope; b. southern slope)
The areas and proportions of different land cover types are disparate across the same range of elevation. Statistical analyses of the area and proportion of each land cover type in every 100-m gradient in elevation, which makes it possible to determine the dominant land cover types at different elevations, referred to as the dominant belt. It is therefore composed of all the dominant land cover types across the whole elevation range. The dominant belts on the northern slope included forest dominant belt at the elevation between 2200 m and 3900 m, shrubland dominant belt between 3900 m and 4200 m, grassland dominant belt between 4200 m and 5100 m, sparse vegetation dominant belt between 5100 m and 5500 m, bare land dominant belt between 5500 m and 6000 m, and glacier and snow cover dominant belt above 6000 m (Figure 3a). The dominant belt on the southern slope included cropland dominant belt at the elevation between 100 m and 1100 m, forest dominant belt between 1100 m and 3900 m, bare land dominant belt between 3900 m and 5700 m, and glacier and snow cover dominant belt above 5700 m (Figure 3b).
Figure 3 Dominant altitudinal belt structures of land cover types in the Koshi River Basin (a. northern slope; b. southern slope)

3.2 Changes and transformation in land cover types on the northern and southern slopes

Data showed that land cover changes remained relatively stable on both northern and southern slopes of the KRB between 1990 and 2015, although some land cover types have changed obviously. Land cover types with obvious area reduction on the northern slope are glacier and snow cover (-176.72 km2) and grassland (-163.83 km2), while shrubland (-485.22 km2) and glacier and snow cover (-121.19 km2) on the southern slope reduced obviously (Figure 4a). The reduction of glacier and snow cover was mainly occurring within an elevation range between 5000 m and 6000 m. The loss of area on the northern slope was greater than on the southern slope, and was accompanied by a concomitantly higher rate of decline. Results showed that 88% of reduced glacier and snow cover on the northern slope was converted to bare land, while 9% turned into waterbody (i.e., glacier lakes and river) (Figure 4b). In contrast, the retreated glacier and snow cover was converted to bare land (77%), grassland (11%), and sparse vegetation (8%) on the southern slope (Figure 4c). The reduced area of grassland on the northern slope was second only to that of glacier and snow cover within a range of 4000 m to 5000 m. The reduced area of grassland was mainly converted to bare land (53%) and sparse vegetation (37%) (Figure 4b). In contrast, the reduced area of shrubland was mostly distributed on the southern slope, and its reduction rate was large (up to 2.8%) and was mainly converted to cropland (63%) and forests (18%) (Figure 4c). The area of wetland on the southern slope also tended to decrease with the highest decrease rate of 3.7%, being mainly converted to cropland (56%) and bare land (17%).
Figure 4 Land cover change and its transfer rate in the Koshi River Basin from 1990 to 2015 (a. land cover change; b. transfer rate on northern slope; c. transfer rate on southern slope)
In terms of the increase of land cover type area, the area of bare land (1196 km2) increased markedly on the northern slope, while waterbody and cropland only slightly enlarged (Figure 4a). Reductions in bare land area have mainly occurred in the elevation range of 5000 m to 6000 m with an annual average decrease rate of 0.19%. The largest contributors to the increases in bare land area were glacier and snow cover (38%), grassland (31%), and sparse vegetation (30%) (Figure 4b). Results showed that cropland (increased by 437 km2) and forest (336 km2) are the main forms of land cover increase on the southern slope (Figure 4a). The increase of cropland mainly occurred below 2000 m, and the increase of forest mainly occurred between 1000 m and 2000 m, with annual growth rates of 0.77% and 0.63%, respectively (Figure 4c).

3.3 Vertical changes of land cover type with elevation between 1990 and 2015

Changing trends for each land cover type versus elevation have been different over time, especially between northern and southern slopes (Figure 5). For the last 25 years, the distribution peak for cropland on the southern slope tended to move to lower elevations over time from 1500 m to 1200 m. While the cropland area on the northern slope remained small and relatively stable in vertical distribution.
Figure 5 The vertical distribution of land cover changes with elevation in the Koshi River Basin
Vertical changes in forest area were quite dramatic, especially on the southern slope. The distribution of forest exhibited two peaks in 1990, one at 1000 m and the other at 2000 m. While a single peak at 1600 m was found in 2015, and from 1990 to 2015 the forest area increased markedly between 1000 m and 2000 m. During this period, there was no obvious change in the forest distribution curve on the northern slope.
Change of grassland on the southern slope was more obvious than that on the northern slope. Results showed that grassland area increased obviously at about 4000 m, which was probably the result of returning cropland to grassland. However, the change of grassland on the northern slope was not obvious, which may be due to the overconcentration at a range of 4100 m to 5000 m.
The built-up area changed obviously in this period. On the southern slope, built-up area was concentrated between 1500 m and 1600 m in 1990, while its distribution was between 1100 m and 2000 m in 2015, showing an obvious trend of moving to lower elevations. In contrast, the built-up area on the northern slope was mainly distributed between 4300 m and 4400 m in 1990. As built-up area increased in this period, its distribution was concentrated between 4200 m and 4600 m in 2015, showing a trend of moving to higher elevations. The peak distribution of glacier and snow cover on both slopes tended to move to higher elevations in this period. It is clear that the movement of glacier and snow cover on the northern slope was greater than that on the southern slope. Glacier and snow cover generally tended to move to higher elevations. The peak of glacier and snow cover moved from 5500 m to 5600 m on the southern slope and from 6000 m to 6100 m on the northern slope over the past 25 years.
Shrubland on the southern slope tended to move generally towards higher elevations from 1990 to 2015. Results showed that the peak elevation of sparse vegetation on the northern slope did not change despite an increase in area and proportion. Bare land on the southern slope moved to higher elevations and became more concentrated around the peak, but bare land on the northern slope became more dispersed. The peak of wetland on the southern slope was not obvious, and the distribution was uniform with elevation.

3.4 Vertical changes in land cover types on the northern and southern slopes between 1990 and 2015

The data presented in Table 1 showed the vertical changes in land cover types on both slopes. Elevation range in this case denotes the elevation distribution range for each land cover type, while the core distribution zone denotes the concentrated elevation distribution range (i.e., the sum of area more than 60% of the total area) in each case. The dominant belt refers to the land cover type occupying the largest percentage at this elevation gradient.
Table 1 Altitudinal distributions of different land cover types in the Koshi River Basin on the northern and southern slopes (m)
Land cover Southern slope Northern slope
1990 2015 1990 2015
Altitude range Core distribution zone Dominant belt Altitude range Core distribution zone Dominant belt Altitude range Core distribution zone Dominant belt Altitude range Core distribution zone Dominant belt
Cropland 96-4300 800-1800 100-700 96-4300 600-1800 100-1000 2300-4600 4100-4400 - 2200-4600 4100-4400 -
Forest 96-4200 800-3000 700-2000 96-4200 900-2700 1000-3900 2100-4200 3200-4100 2100-4000 2100-4200 3200-4100 2100-3900
Shrub land 100-5100 600-2200
3400-4500
2000-3700 100-5100 2100-4500 - 2300-5000 4200-4900 4000-4100 2400-4800 4200-4900 3900-4100
Grassland 200-5300 3700-5300 3700-4000 1400-5300 4300-5100 - 2500-5300 4400-5000 4100-5300 2600-5300 4400-5000 4100-5100
Sparse
vegetation
2100-5500 4800-5500 - 2100-5500 4700-5500 - 2500-5500 5000-5500 - 2500-5500 5000-5300 5100-5300
Waterbody 100-5600 200-800
5000-5300
- 100-5600 200-1000
4800-5600
- 2200-5600 4100-4500 - 2200-5600 4100-4600 -
Built-up area 400-700
1400-2400
1400-1600
2200-2400
- 400-4400 1000-2000 - 4200-4400 4200-4400 - 3500-4400 4200-4400 -
Bare land Over 200 4300-5600 4000-5400 Over 200 4400-5700 3900-5700 Over 2200 5000-5900 - Over 2200 4900-5900 -
Wetland Less than 5400 200-1700 - Less than 5500 200-1800 - 3500-5700 4100-4400 5300-5900 3500-5700 4200-4500 5500-6000
Glacier and snow cover Over 3700 5000-5900 Over 5400 Over 4000 5000-6000 Over 5700 Over 3600 5500-6500 Over 5900 Over 3600 5600-6500 Over 6000
The data showed that the dominant belt comprising cropland, forest, and bare land as well as glacier and snow cover all tended to expand on the southern slope. The cropland dominant belt range was between 100 m and 700 m in 1990. By 2015, this range expanded to between 100 m and 900 m, with the upper limit of the cropland dominant belt expanding 300 m to a higher elevation. During this period, the lower limit of the forest dominant belt also rose by 300 m, while the upper limit of its dominant belt expanded by 1900 m to a higher elevation. The lower limit of the bare land dominant belt dropped by 100 m to a lower elevation over this time, while its upper limit rose by 300 m to a higher elevation. The lower limit of the glacier and snow cover dominant belt also rose by 300 m to a higher elevation.
This was in contrast to the situation of the northern slope, where the upper limit of the forest dominant belt decreased by 200 m to a lower elevation. The upper boundary of the grassland dominant belt retreated by 200 m over this period and replaced by sparse vegeta-tion between 3900 m and 4100 m. The lower boundary of glacier and snow cover increased by 100 m over this period.

3.5 Relationship between climate change and mountain vertical belt change

Changes in vegetation types are mainly determined by climate change. Changes in temperature, precipitation, and sunlight all modify the original environments in which vegetation grows and causes movement to more suitable locations (Guo et al., 2019; Peters et al., 2019). Therefore, due to the great differences in the geographic environment within the KRB, there are significant differences in the influencing factors of the vertical belt changes on both slopes (Table 2). The observations showed that cropland and forest were mainly found on the southern slope, so the change of cropland is significantly related to climatic factors. Expansions in cropland are directly proportional to precipitation change. That is to say, with the increase of precipitation, cropland also showed a trend of expansion. The probability of cropland expansion increases 1.148 times with every 1 mm increase in precipitation. Results showed that cropland tended to expand, which was positively correlated with changes of average temperature, and negatively correlated with changes of minimum and maximum temperatures. The upper and lower boundaries of the forest also developed towards higher elevations, and the northward movement of the forest was mainly related to changes of precipitation and minimum temperature, which was negatively correlated with changes of precipitation. As precipitation decreases, the probability of forest change increases, which was positively correlated with changes of minimum temperature. The probability of forest change also increases in concert with precipitation. Glacier and snow cover on the southern bare land tended to expand, and most glacial retreated areas were converted to bare land. slope tended to retreat over time, while Glacial retreat was mainly related to temperature change, which was positively correlated with changes in average and maximum temperatures, and negatively correlated with changes in minimum temperature. This is in line with our conventional understanding of these phenomena, which is that the factors influencing the expansion of bare land were the same as those controlling the retreat of glacier and snow cover, but the correlation coefficient is opposite.
Table 2 Summary of the variables of logistic regression model for land cover change in the Koshi River Basin
Land cover on southern slope Variable β S.E. Wald Sig (p) Odds ratio
Glacier and snow cover TMP 70.084 28.101 6.220 0.013 2.735
TMX 458.526 152.815 9.003 0.003 1.366
TMN -705.254 216.345 10.627 0.001 0.000
Forest PRE -0.008 0.012 0.508 0.047 0.992
TMN 93.948 72.954 1.658 0.019 6.326
Cropland PRE 0.138 0.034 16.884 0.000 1.148
TMP 305.274 93.714 10.611 0.001 3.790
TMN -219.798 100.111 4.820 0.028 0.000
TMX -877.120 240.970 13.249 0.000 0.000
Bare land TMN -120.064 61.371 3.827 0.050 0.000
TMX 187.431 93.069 4.056 0.044 2.513
Land cover on northern slope Variable β S.E. Wald Sig (p) Odds ratio
Glacier and snow cover TMN 454.324 139.590 10.593 0.001 2.043
TMX -759.591 180.584 17.693 0.000 0.000
Grassland TMP -76.096 14.043 29.365 0.000 0.000
TMN -271.772 155.047 3.072 0.080 0.000
Grassland is the main ecosystem type on the northern slope of the KRB, followed by glacier and snow cover which are sensitive to climate change. The results showed that the main changes in grassland were the receding of the upper boundary of the grassland dominant belt and the degraded area was replaced by sparse vegetation. Changes in grassland were mainly influenced by temperature change, which were negatively correlated with the changes of average and minimum temperatures.

4 Discussion

4.1 The influence of climate change on vertical land cover

The huge elevation differences within the KRB mean that hydrothermal composition varies with elevation, which led to vertical and north-south ecosystem differentiation throughout the study area. Indeed, due to differences in water and heat, ecosystems on the northern and southern slopes of the KRB have developed their own unique vertical combinations (Cidan, 1997). In this context, early research to assess the vertical belt in the KRB began in 1973, while data collected by the scientific investigation team to the Mt. Qomolangma in the Chinese territory between 1959 and 1960 allowed Zhang Jingwei and others to study the region’s vertical vegetation zonation as well as its relationships to the horizontal zones (Zhang and Jiang, 1973). The vertical vegetation patterns across Mt. Qomolangma region have not changed obviously since 1968 (Zhang and Jiang, 1973; Zhang et al., 2020). However, due to increases in temperature and human activities, the vertical belt has experienced local changes, including changes in internal structure and quality (Wu et al., 2020).
Although there has been a limited number of studies on changes and driving forces controlling the vertical belt of Mt. Qomolangma in recent years, yet a great deal of research has been done on the surrounding mountains. The Qinling Mountains are considered to be an important boundary between wet and dry climates for research purposes, rather than a temperature boundary (Fang and Yoda 1989). Therefore, these mountains influence the dry-wet pattern across the north-south transitional zone (Zhao et al., 2020). Studies on climate change and vegetation coverage within the Qinling-Daba Mountain region showed that the changes of vegetation coverage were positively correlated with precipitation and negatively correlated with temperature (Liu et al., 2016). These results indicated that the influence of precipitation on vegetation growth across the Qinling Mountains was stronger than temperature. Changes in vegetation coverage within the Daba Mountains were correlated with temperature to some extent, but not to precipitation (Ren et al., 2012). Those results also showed that it is more appropriate to use the Qinling Mountains as the temperature boundary between the warm temperate zone and the north subtropical zone than the Daba Mountains (Zhao et al., 2020). In terms of each vertical belt, results showed that alpine grasslands on the southern part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are more sensitive to climate variability overall even though the alpine grassland has obvious spatial heterogeneity. Areas in the south are more sensitive to temperature change, while areas in the northeast are more responsive to precipitation. The central part of the region is mainly influenced by radiation and temperature changes (Li et al., 2019). The sensitivity of alpine grasslands to climate change, especially temperature change, increases significantly with the increase of elevation (Li et al., 2019). Similarly, continuous warming across the KRB has directly and indirectly influenced changes of the local cropland. As a result of increases of average temperature and changes of monsoonal rainfall dates, agricultural farming history has also changed greatly, resulting in significant variations in cropland area of the KRB (Paudel et al., 2016). Climate change has also exerted greater negative effects on cropland, since only a small number of crops is resistant to high temperatures, but most are not. As a result of the negative impact of temperature increase, the susceptibility to various crop diseases has also increased, and another clear impact on cropland production and changes were evident (Paudel et al., 2016; 2020). The alpine forest belt ecotone within this land cover type provides a simplified model for studying global ecology and climate change. Dynamic spatiotemporal changes of tree lines can be reconstructed on this basis. Data showed that the upward movement of tree lines was a response to recent climate warming, and that the rate of change was mainly regulated by spring precipitation (Sigdel et al., 2018). Indeed, the rate of increase in this case has been higher across the eastern part of the wettest Himalayas, suggesting that spring precipitation has contributed (Sigdel et al., 2018).

4.2 The influence of human activities on vertical land cover

Human activities change land use pattern, which is also the main reason for the rapid changes within the vertical belt. Cropland is the ecosystem most affected by human activities. In the early period of rapid population growth, more people needed food and resources, which was related to the expansion of cropland. The statistical results of cropland driving changes within the KRB showed that population density has exerted a significant impact on cropland expansion, with the greatest impact from 1978 to 1992 and 1992 to 2010 (Paudel et al., 2016). Indeed, over the period between 1992 and 2010, cropland area decreased slightly and was converted to fallow land or grassland. There is also a direct relationship between young Nepalese migrant workers and cropland change (Paudel et al., 2016; 2020). Across this region, forests within the lower elevation were prone to be disturbed by human activities. Declines in forest area may also be related to the increases of cropland and built-up area, while the distribution range of bare rock and gravel lands has also increased markedly. The expansion of bare rock and gravel lands to lower elevation has mainly been the result of grassland degradation by overgrazing (Zhang et al., 2013). The expansion of bare rock and gravel lands to higher elevation areas are mainly the result of high-altitude glacier retreats caused by climate warming (Nie et al., 2010; 2013). Research has shown that climate warming, precipitation, and soil moisture all influenced changes in alpine grasslands in areas where human activities have been weak. In contrast, in areas where human activity is intense, overgrazing is the main factor leading to alpine grassland degradation (Li et al., 2018). Changes in glacier and snow cover are also the main result of climate factors. However, in areas where tourism and mountaineering activities are developed, such as the famous Mt. Qomolangma region, glacier and snow cover has been severely damaged by human activities. In addition, previous literatures have emphasized the holy land of plodded around mountains, waters and Buddhist temples in Tibet. Kangrinboqe is recognized to be the center of the world by Hinduism, Tibetan Buddhism, Bon religion and ancient Jainism in Tibet, and the existence of the holy lakes such as Lake Manasarovar also increases the pressure on the ecological environment. All the changes discussed here have influenced, or will continue to influence the ecosystem services provided by alpine ecosystems and highlight the huge ecological and environmental challenges in cross-border areas, particularly the border between China and Nepal. The vertical belt distribution and change of land cover analyzed in this study reflect the joint influence of climate change and human activities on land and vegetation.

5 Conclusions

Using land cover and elevation data to analyze mountain vertical belts provides a new perspective for the research on vertical mountain belts. This approach enables us to analyze the whole mountain as a continuous vertical belt, so the study of its changes is of great significance. The vertical belt based on land cover study presented here for the KRB shows that the huge difference in water and heat between northern and southern slopes has resulted in different vertical belt characteristics. The dominant belt on the southern slope consists of cropland, forest, bare land, and glacier and snow cover, while grassland, bare land, and glacier and snow cover are dominant on the northern slope. It is clear that these major vertical belts have not changed substantially over the past 25 years, although some land cover types have varied obviously. Cropland area on the southern slope tended to increase, which mainly occurred below 2000 m, while the increase in forest area mainly occurred between 1000 m and 2000 m. Grassland area on the northern slope has a decreasing trend, which mainly occurred between 4000 m and 5000 m. The reductions of glacier and snow cover mainly occurred at elevations between 5000 m to 6000 m. These reductions on the northern slope were larger than on the southern slope with a higher rate. The upper limit of cropland and bare land on the southern slope has moved northwards to higher elevation, while the lower limit of forest and glacier and snow cover has moved to higher elevation. As the upper limit of alpine grassland has receded to higher elevation on the northern slope, the lower limits of glacier and snow cover and sparse vegetation have shifted northwards to higher elevations. The impacts of climate change and human activities on vertical land cover show that the early expansion of cropland was mainly the result of rapid population growth. Later, however, due to the impact of climate warming on rain-fed agriculture, cropland was often abandoned during the rainy season when the precipitation conditions were poor, and the migration out of labor force in mountainous areas also led to cropland abandonment. The lower limit of glacier and snow cover has also retreated, but was less influenced by human activities due to higher elevation. This boundary has been mainly influenced by climate change, especially global warming and reduced local precipitation.
We highly appreciate to the Prof. Narendra Raj Khanal, Prof. Prem Sagar Chapagain and Prof. Pashupati Nepal of the Central Department of Geography (CDG) of Tribhuvan University (TU) for their support in this research and their great help in field investigation. We also want to thank Mr. Sher Bahadur Gurung of CDG of TU, and Mr. Mohan Kumar Rai of Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research of CAS for their help and support in the field.
[1]
Brunschon C, Behling H, 2010. Reconstruction and visualization of upper forest line and vegetation changes in the Andean depression region of southeastern Ecuador since the last glacial maximum: A multi-site synthesis. Review of Palaeobotany and Palynology, 163: 139-152.

DOI

[2]
Bryn A, Potthoff K, 2018, Elevational treeline and forest line dynamics in Norwegian mountain areas: A review. Landscape Ecology, 33: 1225-1245.

DOI

[3]
Bu Z K, Wang S Z, Lang H Q et al., 2003. Vegetation vertical zone spectrum and its features on southern slope of Laobai Mountain in Huangnihe Nature Reserve. Journal of Mountain Science, 21(1): 80-84. (in Chinese)

[4]
Cavieres L A, Penaloza A, Arroyo M K, 2000. Altitudinal vegetation belts in the high-Andes of central Chile (33 degrees S). Revista Chilena De Historia Natural, 73: 331-344.

[5]
Cidan L Z, 1997. General situation of Mount Qomolangma Nature Reserve. China Tibetology, (1): 3-20. (in Chinese)

[6]
Fang C S, Meng Y, Liu X X et al., 2015. Driving force factors of LUCC of the Jilin section of Liaohe River based on principle analysis. Journal of Jilin University, 53(3): 577-581. (in Chinese)

[7]
Fang J Y, Yoda K, 1989. Climate and vegetation in China II: Distribution of main vegetation types and thermal climate. Ecological Research, 4(1): 71-83.

DOI

[8]
Gao J G, Zhang Y L, Liu L S et al., 2014. Climate change as the major driver of alpine grasslands expansion and contraction: A case study in the Mt. Qomolangma (Everest) National Nature Preserve, southern Tibetan Plateau. Quaternary International, 336: 108-116.

DOI

[9]
Gay A, Cerdan O, Mardhel V et al., 2016. Application of an index of sediment connectivity in a lowland area. Journal of Soils & Sediments, 16(1): 280-293.

[10]
Guo S Z, Bai H Y, Huang X Y et al., 2019. Remote sensing phenology of Larix chinensis forest in response to climate change in Qinling Mountains. Chinese Journal of Ecology, 38(4): 1123-1132. (in Chinese)

[11]
He W H, Zhang B P, Pang Y et al., 2015. Effect of slope aspect on the distribution of mountain forest in the northern flank of the central Tianshan Mountains. Mountain Research, 33(5): 546-552. (in Chinese)

[12]
Hu Z Y, Dietz A J, Kuenzer C, 2019. Deriving regional snow line dynamics during the ablation seasons 1984-2018 in European mountains. Remote Sensing, 11(8): 933.

DOI

[13]
Ji X Y, Luo L, Wang X Y et al., 2018. Identification and change analysis of mountain altitudinal zone in Tianshan Bogda Natural Heritage Site based on “DEM-NDVI-Land Cover Classification”. Journal of Geo-Information Science, 20(9): 1350-1360. (in Chinese)

[14]
Li L H, Zhang Y L, Liu L S et al., 2018. Current challenges in distinguishing climatic and anthropogenic contributions to alpine grassland variation on the Tibetan Plateau. Ecology and Evolution, 8: 5949-5963.

DOI

[15]
Li L H, Zhang Y L, Liu L S et al., 2018. Spatiotemporal patterns of vegetation greenness change and associated climatic and anthropogenic drivers on the Tibetan Plateau during 2000-2015. Remote Sensing, 10(10), 1525.

DOI

[16]
Li L H, Zhang Y L, Wu J S et al., 2019. Increasing sensitivity of alpine grasslands to climate variability along an elevational gradient on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Science of The Total Environment, 678: 21-29.

DOI

[17]
Liu J Y, Shao Q Q, Yan X D et al., 2016. The climatic impacts of land use and land cover change compared among countries. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 26(7): 889-903.

DOI

[18]
Mansur S, Yusup M, Nasima N, 2016. Landscape characteristics of the vertical natural zones of Tianshan Tomur Nature Reserve. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 38(5): 1425-1431. (in Chinese)

[19]
Mohapatra J, Singh C P, Tripathi O P et al., 2019. Remote sensing of alpine treeline ecotone dynamics and phenology in Arunachal Pradesh Himalaya. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 40: 7986-8009.

DOI

[20]
Nie Y, Zhang Y L, Ding M J et al., 2013. Lake change and its implication in the vicinity of Mt. Qomolangma (Everest), Central High Himalayas, 1970-2009. Environmental Earth Sciences, 68(1): 251-265.

DOI

[21]
Nie Y, Zhang Y L, Liu L S et al., 2010. Monitoring glacier change based on remote sensing in the Mt. Qomolangma National Nature Preserve. Acta Geographica Sinica, 65(1): 13-28. (in Chinese)

[22]
Paudel B, Gao J G, Zhang Y L et al., 2016. Changes in cropland status and their driving factors in the Koshi River Basin of the Central Himalayas, Nepal. Sustainability, 8(9): 1-17.

DOI

[23]
Paudel B, Wu X, Zhang Y L et al., 2020. Farmland abandonment and its determinants in the different ecological villages of the Koshi River Basin, Central Himalayas: Synergy of high-resolution remote sensing and social surveys. Environmental Research, 188: 109711.

DOI

[24]
Peters M K, Hemp A, Appelhans T et al., 2019. Climate land use interactions shape tropical mountain biodiversity and ecosystem functions. Nature, 568(7750): 1-5.

[25]
Qi W, Zhang Y L, Gao J G et al., 2013. Climate change on the southern slope of Mt. Qomolangma (Everest) Region in Nepal since 1971. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 23(4): 595-611.

DOI

[26]
Rastner P, Prinz R, Notarnicola C et al., 2019. On the automated mapping of snow cover on glaciers and calculation of snow line altitudes from multi-temporal Landsat data. Remote Sensing, 11: 1410.

DOI

[27]
Ren P, Neron V, Rossi S et al., 2020. Warming counteracts defoliation-induced mismatch by increasing herbivore-plant phenological synchrony. Global Change Biology, 26: 2072-2080.

DOI

[28]
Sieg B, Danie J, Fred J A, 2005. Altitudinal zonation of vegetation in continental West Greenland with special reference to snowbeds. Phytocoenologia, 35(4): 887-908.

DOI

[29]
Sigdel S R, Wang Y, Camarero J J et al., 2018. Moisture-mediated responsiveness of treeline shifts to global warming in the Himalayas. Global Change Biology, 24.

[30]
Sun J, Cheng G W, 2014. Mountain altitudinal belt: A review. Ecology and Environmental Sciences, 23(9): 1544-1550. (in Chinese)

[31]
Sun R H, 2008. Digital identification and analysis of mountain altitudinal belts[D]. Beijing: Institute of Geographic Sciences and Resources, CAS. (in Chinese)

[32]
Wu X, Gao J G, Zhang Y L et al., 2017. Land cover status in the Koshi River Basin, Central Himalayas. Journal of Resources and Ecology, 8(1): 10-19.

DOI

[33]
Wu X, Sun X M, Wang Z F et al., 2020. Vegetation changes and their response to climate change in the Koshi River Basin of Central Himalayas since 2000. Sustainability, 12(16): 1-15.

DOI

[34]
Xiao F, Ling F, Du Y et al., 2010. Digital extraction of altitudinal belt spectra in the West Kunlun Mountains using SPOT-VGT NDVI and SRTM DEM. Journal of Mountain Science, 7(2): 133-145.

DOI

[35]
Xie F D, Wu X, Liu L S et al., 2021. Land use and land cover change within the Koshi River Basin of the Central Himalayas since 1990. Journal of Mountain Science, 18(1): 159-177.

DOI

[36]
Xu J, Zhang B P, Tan J et al., 2009. Spatial relationship between altitudinal vegetation belts and climatic factors in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Journal of Mountain Science, 27(6): 663-670. (in Chinese)

[37]
Xu J, Zhang B P, Zhu Y H et al., 2006. Distribution and geographical analysis of altitudinal belts in the Altun-Qilian Mountains. Geographical Research, 25(6): 977-984. (in Chinese)

[38]
Yu P, Yao Y H, Zhao F et al., 2012. A method for identifying slope aspect information of mountain altitudinal belts. Journal of Mountain Science, 30(3): 290-298. (in Chinese)

[39]
Zhang B P, Mo S G, Wu H Z et al., 2004. Digital spectra and analysis of altitudinal belts in Tianshan Mountains, China. Journal of Mountain Science, 1: 18-28.

DOI

[40]
Zhang J W, Jiang S, 1973. A primary study on the vertical vegetation belt of Mt. Jolmo-Lungma (Everest) Region and its relationship with horizontal zone. Acta Botanica Sinica, 15(2): 221-236. (in Chinese)

[41]
Zhang W, Zhang Y L, Wang Z F et al., 2006. Analysis of vegetation change in Mt. Qomolangma Natural Reserve. Progress in Geography, 25(3): 12-21. (in Chinese)

[42]
Zhang Y L, Gao J G, Liu L S et al., 2013. NDVI-based vegetation changes and their responses to climate change from 1982 to 2011: A case study in the Koshi River Basin in the middle Himalayas. Global and Planetary Change, 108: 139-148.

DOI

[43]
Zhang Y L, Liu L S, Li B Y et al., 2021. Boundary data of the Tibetan Plateau (2021 version). Digital Journal of of Global Change Data Repository, https://doi.org/10.3974/geodb.2021.07.10.V1.

[44]
Zhang Y L, Wu X, Zheng D, 2020. Vertical differentiation of land cover in the Central Himalayas. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 30(6): 969-987.

DOI

[45]
Zhao F, Liu J J, Zhu W B et al., 2020. Spatial variation of altitudinal belts as dividing index between warm temperate and subtropical zones in the Qinling-Daba Mountains. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 30(4): 642-656.

DOI

Outlines

/