Journal of Geographical Sciences >
Central Asian geo-relation networks: Evolution and driving forces
Wang Yun (1993–), PhD Candidate, specialized in geopolitics and regional development.E-mail: wangyun.16b@igsnrr.ac.cn |
Received date: 2020-03-21
Accepted date: 2020-07-27
Online published: 2021-01-25
Supported by
Priority Research of the CAS(XDA20040400)
National Natural Science Foundation of China(41871118)
Copyright
Due to the unique geographical location and historical background of Central Asia, the region’s geo-relation networks are complex and changeable. A social network analysis was conducted in this study to visualize the 20-year evolutionary process of bilateral (diplomatic relations) and multilateral (intergovernmental organization (IGO) connections) networks in Central Asia since 1993. Additionally, a further empirical study determined the significant driving forces of the construction of the geo-relation networks. The results showed that since the independence of the five Central Asian countries, their degree centrality (C’D(ni)) values have been increasing, with the index values being the highest for Kazakhstan, followed by Uzbekistan, while the other three countries had relatively low values. The Central Asian countries maintain bilateral relations with post-Soviet nations, neighboring countries, and Western powers, and have gradually deepened and expanded their diplomatic networks. From each state’s perspective, the geostrategic approaches adopted by the five countries were different. Kazakhstan has focused on expanding its bilateral and multilateral relations, while the other Central Asian countries have attempted to increase their influence by joining influential IGOs. Various driving forces, including economic, political, cultural, and geographical factors, have played significant roles in the construction of geo-relation networks in Central Asia. The importance of these factors has changed over time, from political and cultural factors (before 1995) to relations with neighboring countries (1996-2001), and finally to economic power and cultural and religious proximity (after 2002).
Key words: Central Asia; social network analysis; geo-relations; evolution; driving forces
WANG Yun , LIU Yi . Central Asian geo-relation networks: Evolution and driving forces[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020 , 30(11) : 1739 -1760 . DOI: 10.1007/s11442-020-1810-z
Table 1 The determinants of a country’s degree of importance in the Central Asian geopolitical network |
Hypotheses and number | Proxy | Expected sign | Data source |
---|---|---|---|
A country’s degree of importance in the Central Asian geopolitical network (dependent variable) | ICAN: The length of time over which formal diplomatic relations have been established with a Central Asian country | + | Diplomatic Dashboard |
Economic power (H1) | GDP: the country’s GDP in the year when it established diplomatic relations with Central Asian countries | + | World Bank development indicator |
Identity as a post-Soviet state (H2a) | PS: = 1 when the country is a post-Soviet state | + | … |
Membership of NATO (H2b) | NATO: = 1 when the country is a member of NATO | + | Official NATO website |
Membership of OIC(H3) | OIC: = 1 when the country is a member of the OIC | + | Official OIC website |
Military power (H4) | ME: the country’s military expenditure in the year when it established diplomatic relations with Central Asian countries | + | World Bank development indicator |
Distance (H5a) | DS: the geographical distance between the two capitals | _ | The GeoDist Database |
Neighboring country (H5b) | NC: = 1 when the country is a neighboring country of the Central Asian countries | + | … |
Table 2 The proposed variables in this study |
Variable | Introduction | Mean | SD |
---|---|---|---|
GDP | The country’s GDP in the year when it established diplomatic relations with Central Asian countries (billions of USD) | 642 | 1480 |
PS | = 1 when the country is a post-Soviet state | 0.23 | 0.42 |
NATO | = 1 when the country is a member of NATO | 0.22 | 0.42 |
OIC | = 1 when the country is a member of the OIC | 0.37 | 0.48 |
ME | The country’s military expenditure in the year when it established diplomatic relations with Central Asian countries (billions of USD) | 15.9 | 44.2 |
DS | Geographical distance between the two capitals (km) | 3733.51 | 2269.14 |
NC | = 1 when the country is a neighboring country of Central Asia | 0.11 | 0.31 |
Table 3 The correlation matrix |
ICAN | GDP | PS | NATO | OIC | ME | DS | NC | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ICAN | 1.0000 | |||||||
GDP | 0.1978 | 1.0000 | ||||||
PS | 0.1241 | -0.2199 | 1.0000 | |||||
NATO | 0.1738 | 0.3675 | -0.2369 | 1.0000 | ||||
OIC | -0.1146 | -0.2974 | 0.1236 | -0.2886 | 1.0000 | |||
ME | 0.1737 | 0.8824 | -0.1798 | 0.3868 | -0.2031 | 1.0000 | ||
DS | -0.0592 | 0.5240 | -0.3973 | 0.2608 | -0.4209 | 0.4907 | 1.0000 | |
NC | 0.1965 | -0.1202 | 0.3311 | -0.1833 | 0.3191 | -0.1058 | -0.3239 | 1.0000 |
Table 4 Variance inflation factor test for the OLS regression model |
Kazakhstan | Uzbekistan | Central Asia | |
---|---|---|---|
GDP | 7.32 | 15.16 | 8.37 |
PS | 2.12 | 2.33 | 1.73 |
NATO | 1.22 | 1.50 | 1.24 |
OIC | 1.54 | 1.71 | 1.56 |
ME | 7.60 | 13.79 | 8.14 |
DS | 2.24 | 2.76 | 1.73 |
NC | 1.48 | 1.88 | 1.24 |
Mean VIF | 3.36 | 5.59 | 3.43 |
Figure 1 Degree centrality of Central Asian countries in the diplomatic relations network, 1993-2013 |
Figure 2 World IGO connection with Central Asia, by country, 1993-2013 |
Figure 3 Degree centrality of Central Asian countries in diplomatic relations and IGO connection networks, 1993-2013 |
Table 5 Description of the IGO connection network for Central Asian countries in 2013 |
Kazakhstan | Kyrgyzstan | Tajikistan | Uzbekistan | Turkmenistan | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
IGO membership | 51 | 45 | 42 | 40 | 35 |
Average weight | 7.82 | 9.26 | 10.18 | 9.40 | 8.79 |
Centrality | 386.30 | 399.73 | 402.02 | 372.71 | 303.85 |
Figure 4 The blocks of world IGO networks as determined by CONCOR |
Table 6 The determinants of a country' s degree of importance in the Central Asian geopolitical network |
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Notes: Standard errors are in parentheses. |
Table 7 Determinants of a country’s degree of importance in the Central Asian geopolitical network |
Region/country | Period | Driving factors (sorted by coefficient value, from largest to smallest) |
---|---|---|
Central Asia | 1993-2013 | NC, NATO, GDP, PS, DS (-) |
Central Asia | 1993-1995 | PS, OIC, ME, NC |
Central Asia | 1996-2001 | NC, PS, GDP |
Central Asia | 2002-2008 | OIC, GDP, ME (-) |
Kazakhstan | 1993-2013 | GDP, ME (-), DS (-) |
Uzbekistan | 1993-2013 | PS, GDP |
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