Journal of Geographical Sciences >
Spatiotemporal variation in China’s climatic seasons from 1951 to 2017
Ma Bin (1990–), PhD, specialized in environmental change and resource assessment. Email: mabin0937@163.com 
Received date: 20191217
Accepted date: 20200602
Online published: 20201125
Supported by
National Natural Science Foundation of China(41561024)
National Natural Science Foundation of China(31760241)
National Natural Science Foundation of China(41801054)
Copyright
In this paper, meteorological industry standard, daily mean temperature, and an improved multiple regression model are used to calculate China’s climatic seasons, not only to help understand their spatiotemporal distribution, but also to provide a reference for China’s climatic regionalization and crop production. It is found that the improved multiple regression model can accurately show the spatial distribution of climatic seasons. The main results are as follows. There are four climatic seasonal regions in China, namely, the perennialwinter, nowinter, nosummer and discernible regions, and their ranges basically remained stable from 1951 to 2017. The cumulative anomaly curve of the four climatic seasonal regions clarifies that the trend of China’s climatic seasonal regions turned in 1994, after which the area of the perennialwinter and nosummer regions narrowed and the nowinter and discernible regions expanded. The number of sites with significantly reduced winter duration is the largest, followed by the number of sites with increased summer duration, and the number of sites with large changes in spring and autumn is the least. Spring advances and autumn is postponed due to the shortened winter and lengthened summer durations. Sites with significant change in seasonal duration are mainly distributed in Northwest China, the Sichuan Basin, the HuangheHuaiheHaihe (HuangHuaiHai) Plain, the Northeast China Plain, and the Southeast Coast.
MA Bin , ZHANG Bo , JIA Lige . Spatiotemporal variation in China’s climatic seasons from 1951 to 2017[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020 , 30(9) : 1387 1400 . DOI: 10.1007/s1144202017886
Figure 1 Location of the meteorological stations. R is the goodness of fit between missing data and completion data in China 
Table 1 Threshold temperatures for different climatic seasons 
Seasons  Spring  Summer  Autumn  Winter 

Threshold  $10\ \le T{{\overline{M}}_{j}}<22\ $℃  $T{{\overline{M}}_{j}}\ge 22\ $℃  $10\ \le T{{\overline{M}}_{j}}<22\ $℃  $T{{\overline{M}}_{j}}<10\ $℃ 
Table 2 Definition of normal climatic seasonal regions 
Climatic seasons regions  Abbreviation  Threshold for the temperature of tenderness 

Perennialwinter region  PWR  $T{{\overline{M}}_{j}}<10$℃ 
Perennialsummer region  PSuR  $T{{\overline{M}}_{j}}\ge 22$℃ 
Perennialspring region  PSpR  $10\le T{{\overline{M}}_{j}}<22$℃ 
Nowinter region  NWR  $T{{\overline{M}}_{j}}\ge 10$℃ 
Nosummer region  NSR  $T{{\overline{M}}_{j}}<22$℃ 
Discernible region  DR  Except the above five cases 
Table 3 Multiple regression models for climatic seasonal length simulation in China for different Climate Normals 
Climate Normal  Threshold  Multiple regression model  R^{2}  Significance level 

19511980  10 ℃  $\begin{align} & Y=4014.82\text{+}41.71\times \theta \text{+}0.003\times {{\theta }^{3}}4.32\times \text{sin}\theta 1280.2\times \\ & \ \ \ \ \ \ \text{ln}\theta 119.38\times \text{ln}\varphi 0.02\times h \\ \end{align}$  0.97  0.001 
22 ℃  $\begin{align} & Y=3461.58+93.51\times \theta 0.65\times {{\theta }^{2}}\text{+}2.42\times \text{sin}\theta 1759.02\times \\ & \ \ \ \ \ \ \text{ln}\theta 121.4\times \text{ln}\varphi 0.09\times h \\ \end{align}$  0.958  0.001  
19611990  10 ℃  $\begin{align} & Y=4025.87\text{+}41.94\times \theta 0.003\times {{\theta }^{3}}4.28\times \text{sin}\theta 1285.43\times \\ & \ \ \ \ \ \ \text{ln}\theta 119.33\times \text{ln}\varphi 0.02\times h \\ \end{align}$  0.97  0.001 
22 ℃  $\begin{align} & Y=3461.57\text{+}93.51\times \theta 0.65\times {{\theta }^{2}}\text{+}2.42\times \text{sin}\theta 1759.02\times \\ & \ \ \ \ \ \ \text{ln}\theta 121.4\times \text{ln}\varphi 0.09\times h \\ \end{align}$  0.958  0.001  
19712000  10 ℃  $\begin{align} & Y=4009.6\text{+}41.7\times \theta 0.003\times {{\theta }^{3}}5.39\times \text{sin}\theta 1280.05\times \\ & \ \ \ \ \ \ \text{ln}\theta 118.44\times \text{ln}\varphi 0.02\times h \\ \end{align}$  0.97  0.001 
22 ℃  $\begin{align} & Y=3682.63\text{+}105.4\times \theta 0.74\times {{\theta }^{2}}\text{+}1.75\times \text{sin}\theta 1964.13\times \\ & \ \ \ \ \ \ \text{ln}\theta 165.82\times \text{ln}\varphi 0.1\times h \\ \end{align}$  0.958  0.001  
19812010  10 ℃  $\begin{align} & Y=3801.72\text{+}38.03\times \theta 0.003\times {{\theta }^{3}}5.44\times \text{sin}\theta 1193.74\times \\ & \ \ \ \ \ \ \text{ln}\theta 114.2\times \text{ln}\varphi 0.02\times h \\ \end{align}$  0.97  0.001 
22 ℃  $\begin{align} & Y=3395.83\text{+}67.93\times \theta 0.006\times {{\theta }^{3}}\text{+}2.1\times \text{sin}\theta 1671.14\times \\ & \ \ \ \ \ \ \text{ln}\theta 147\times \text{ln}\varphi 0.1\times h \\ \end{align}$  0.959  0.001 
Table 4 The R, S and RMSE between measured and simulated values of the validation site 
Station  R  S  RSME  Station  R  S  RSME 

Hailar  0.99  61.21  5.05  Dardo  0.99  79.33  22.77 
Karamay  0.98  47.87  23.47  Yanyuan  0.99  109.76  17.15 
Korla  0.99  56.08  19.86  Zhanyi  0.99  124.65  24.16 
Yarkant  0.99  62.22  5.61  Gaoping  0.99  77.55  4.40 
Naomaohu  0.98  44.79  17.10  Shuangfeng  0.99  63.33  4.76 
Jiuquan  0.99  72.03  15.55  Xuzhou  0.99  57.50  3.45 
Gonghe  0.99  61.20  10.06  Anqing  0.99  62.44  3.26 
Urad Zhongqi  0.99  68.65  6.08  Wenzhou  0.99  77.66  6.83 
Houma  0.99  58.18  3.94  Du’an  0.99  88.15  3.00 
Changchun  0.99  56.58  4.68  Meixian  0.99  87.59  6.98 
Qinglong  0.99  60.40  4.03  Tainan  0.99  76.59  48.13 
Sog  0.98  35.70  8.39  Qionghai  0.99  60.24  16.26 
Figure 2 Spatial distribution of climatic seasonal regions in different Climate Normals in China 
Figure 3 Spatial distribution of spring, summer, autumn and winter duration in different Climate Normals in China 
Figure 4 Linear trends and cumulative anomaly curves in different climatic seasonal regions from 1951 to 2017 
Figure 5 Spatial distribution of expanded area for climatic seasonal regions in China after 1994 
Figure 6 Trends of spring, summer, autumn and winter durations from 1951 to 2017 
Figure 7 Trends of the spring, summer, autumn and winter starting dates in China from 1951 to 2017 
We are very grateful to the three anonymous reviewers for their suggestions on this manuscript. We also thank Nanjing Hurricane Translation for reviewing the English language quality of our manuscript.
[1] 

[2] 

[3] 

[4] 

[5] 

[6] 

[7] 

[8] 

[9] 

[10] 

[11] 

[12] 

[13] 

[14] 

[15] 

[16] 

[17] 

[18] 

[19] 

[20] 

[21] 

[22] 

[23] 

[24] 
PCNARCC, 2015. China’s National Assessment Report on Climate Change. Beijing: Science Press.

[25] 

[26] 

[27] 

[28] 

[29] 

[30] 

[31] 

[32] 

[33] 

[34] 

[35] 

/
〈  〉 