Journal of Geographical Sciences >
Spatio-temporal distribution of vascular plant species abundance on Qinghai-Tibet Plateau
Fan Zemeng, PhD, specialized in ecological modelling and system simulation. E-mail: fanzm@lreis.ac.cn |
Received date: 2017-06-20
Accepted date: 2018-02-27
Online published: 2019-12-09
Supported by
National Key R&D Program of China(No.2017YFA0603702)
National Key R&D Program of China(No.2018YFC0507200)
National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41271406)
National Natural Science Foundation of China(No. 91325204)
Innovation Project of LREIS(O88RA600YA)
Copyright
For quantitatively explaining the correlations between the vascular plant species abundance (VPSA) and habitat factors, a spatial simulation method has been developed to simulate the distribution of VPSA on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. In this paper, the vascular plant type, land cover, mean annual biotemperature, average total annual precipitation, topographic relief, patch connectivity and ecological diversity index were selected to screen the best correlation equation between the VPSA and habitat factors on the basis of 37 national nature reserves on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The research results show that the coefficient of determination between VPSA and habitat factors is 0.94, and the mean error is 2.21 types per km2. The distribution of VPSA gradually decreases from southeast to northwest, and reduces with increasing altitude except the desert area of Qaidam Basin. Furthermore, the scenarios of VPSA on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau during the periods from 1981 to 2010 (T0), from 2011 to 2040 (T2), from 2041 to 2070 (T3) and from 2071 to 2100 (T4) were simulated by combining the land cover change and the climatic scenarios of CMIP5 RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The simulated results show that the VPSA would generally decrease on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from T0 to T4. The VPSA has the largest change ratio under RCP8.5 scenario, and the smallest change ratio under RCP2.6 scenario. In general, the dynamic change of habitat factors would directly affect the spatial distribution of VPSA on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in the future.
FAN Zemeng , BAI Ruyu , YUE Tianxiang . Spatio-temporal distribution of vascular plant species abundance on Qinghai-Tibet Plateau[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019 , 29(10) : 1625 -1636 . DOI: 10.1007/s11442-019-1667-1
Figure 1 Spatial distribution of national nature reverses on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau |
Table 1 Equations between vascular plant abundance and driving factors |
Factor type | Function type | Equation | Coefficient of determination |
---|---|---|---|
Environ- ment variable | Linear | $y=259.79+120.06MAB-0.31MAP+3179.40Re$ | R=0.85 |
Exponent and logarithm | $y=-756.85+0.20exp(MAB)-118.68lnMAP+1950.94exp(Re)$ | R=0.91 | |
Logarithm | $y=-2789.60-25.10lnMAB-665.62lnMAP+395.03lnRe$ | R=0.68 | |
Landscape index | Linear | $y=1217.50-1643.47Cot+3245.51Dt$ | R=0.31 |
Exponent | $y=-541.70-1547.10exp\left( Cot \right)+3301.28exp\left( Dt \right)$ | R=0.52 | |
Logarithm | $y=1109.06+12.06lnCot-38.37lnDt$ | R=0.20 | |
Land cover type | Linear | $\begin{matrix} & y=881.86+2.94*{{10}^{-6}}Ca+7.30*{{10}^{-7}}Fo+1.85*{{10}^{-9}}Gr-7.88* \\ & \ \ \ \ \ \ {{10}^{-9}}Wa-1.61*{{10}^{-4}}Bu-2.17*{{10}^{-8}}De-6.47*{{10}^{-8}}Ic \\ \end{matrix}$ | R=0.65 |
Logarithm | $\begin{matrix} & y=388.46+39.83lnCa+57.89lnFo-7.48lnGr-62.01lnWa \\ & \ \ \ \ \ \ -19.96lnBu+2.84lnDe+44.84lnIc \\ \end{matrix}$ | R=0.80 |
Notes: y is the VPSA; MAB, MAP and Re are respectively mean annual biotemperature, total annual average precipitation and topographic relief; Dt and Cot are respectively landscape diversity and patch connectivity of land cover; Ca, Fo, Gr, Wa, Bu, De and Ic are respectively cultivated land, forest land, grassland, wetland, built-up land, desertification land and ice area. |
Figure 2 Spatial distribution of VPSA in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in 2010 |
Table 2 Changes of VPSA under three scenarios on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau |
Scenarios | T0 | ∆(T1-T0) | T1 | ∆(T1-T0) | T2 | ∆(T1-T0) | T3 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RCP2.6 | 496.79 | -0.53 | 496.26 | -0.17 | 496.09 | -0.04 | 496.05 |
RCP4.5 | 496.79 | 0.27 | 497.06 | -1.42 | 495.64 | -1.05 | 494.59 |
RCP8.5 | 496.79 | 0.52 | 497.31 | -1.95 | 495.36 | -4.15 | 491.21 |
Figure 3 Spatial distribution of VPSA under RCP2.6 scenario on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau |
Figure 4 Spatial distribution of VPSA under RCP4.5 scenario on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau |
Figure 5 Spatial distribution of VPSA under RCP8.5 scenario in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau |
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