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Journal of Geographical Sciences >

2019 , Vol. 29 >Issue 4: 483 - 495

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-019-1611-4

Research Articles

The Belt and Road: Geographical pattern and regional risks

  • WU Shaohong , 1, 2, 3 ,
  • LIU Lulu 1, 2, 3 ,
  • LIU Yanhua , 1, 2, 3, * ,
  • GAO Jiangbo 1, 2 ,
  • DAI Erfu 1, 2, 3 ,
  • FENG Aiqing 4 ,
  • WANG Wentao 5
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  • 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
  • 2. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
  • 3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • 4. National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
  • 5. Administrative Center for China Agenda 21, Beijing 100862, China
*Corresponding author: Liu Yanhua, Professor, specialized in environmental renovation and global change. E-mail:

Author: Wu Shaohong, Professor, specialized in physical geography. E-mail:

Received date: 2018-08-12

  Accepted date: 2018-11-22

  Online published: 2019-04-12

Supported by

Key Project of National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41530749

Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.XDA20020202, No.XDA19040304

Copyright

Journal of Geographical Sciences, All Rights Reserved
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Abstract

Building the Belt and Road is initiatives of China to promote win-win international cooperation in the new era, aiming at green, health, intellect and peace and the joint development with people of the countries along the route. Systematic analysis on environmental characteristics, evolutionary tendency and future risks are certainly the scientific fundamentals of sustainable development for the Belt and Road construction. Applied remote sensing monitoring, statistical analysis, this paper investigates the regional characteristics of climate, topography, soil, hydrology, vegetation cover and terrestrial ecosystems production, as well as socio-economic conditions. Based on the regional characteristics, the Belt and Road is divided into 9 sub-regions: Central and Eastern Europe sub-region with cold and humid climate, Mongolia and Russia sub-region with cold and arid climate, Central and West Asia arid sub-region, Southeast Asia sub-region with warm and humid climate, Pakistan arid sub-region, Bangladesh-India-Myanmar sub-region with warm and humid climate, Eastern China monsoon sub-region, Northwest China arid sub-region and Tibetan Plateau sub-region. Combining modeling simulation with scenario projections, natural disaster assessment methodology is used to assess the risk of extreme events including heat waves, droughts and floods in the coming 30 years (2021-2050). Results show that, on the basis of the regional framework, the western Eurasia would be a warming trend; both sides of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in high temperature and heat waves risk; Central and Eastern Europe sub-region with cold and humid climate in high drought risk; Bangladesh-India-Myanmar sub-region with warm and humid climate as well as Eastern China in high risk of flooding.

Key words： the Belt and Road; regional characteristics; extreme events; environmental change; risks

Cite this article

WU Shaohong , LIU Lulu , LIU Yanhua , GAO Jiangbo , DAI Erfu , FENG Aiqing , WANG Wentao . The Belt and Road: Geographical pattern and regional risks[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019 , 29(4) : 483 -495 . DOI: 10.1007/s11442-019-1611-4

1 Introduction

Construction of the Belt and Road is initiatives of China to promote international win-win cooperation in the new era, the objectives of which are to “practice the new idea of green development, advocate the green, low-carbon, cycling, and sustainable production and life style, strengthen the environmental cooperation, construct the ecological civilization, and jointly achieve the goal of sustainable development in 2030” (Xi, 2017). The main body of the Belt and Road lies across the Asian-African and European continents and is connected in the east to the flourishing Asian-Pacific economic circle and linked in the west to the developed European economic area, with many countries in the middle hinterland (Figure 1). Construction of the Belt and Road will bring enormous profit to the countries along the route. However, the differences in the conditions of resource environments are huge, and the environments are fragile; these aspects have a profound influence on regional socio-economic development (Ma, 2007; Dong et al., 2015). Therefore, it is among the important measures for cooperation to enrich environmental and biological diversity, strengthen the protection of natural resources, adapt to climate change, resist and reduce disasters, improve the ability of disaster risk management, and promote cooperation in the fields of renewable energy and energy efficiency (NDRC et al., 2015); a series of relevant studies is in progress (Zou et al., 2015; Chen et al., 2016; Liu, 2016; Cui, 2017; Ge et al., 2017;Yao and Guo, 2017; Zhu, 2017).
Figure 1 The covered regions and the current and historical pathways for the Belt and Road
The promotion of regional sustainable development and building of the “green silk road” are the guarantees for the construction of the Belt and Road to achieve success (Li et al., 2015; Dong et al., 2017). Particularly, the full understanding of the characteristics and risks of regional environment (Li et al., 2014) is the basis of the construction of the Belt and Road and the sustainable development of the environment (NRSCC et al., 2015; Li et al., 2016; Xu et al., 2016). In this study, under the background of climate change and in the face of construction of the Belt and Road, the countries along the Belt and Road are taken as a whole, analyzing environment, resources, regional differentiation as well as changing trend. Extreme event risks are paid more attention to for supporting the socio-economic development and carrying forward the ecological civilization construction of the Belt and Road. Scientifically, the purposes of the study are to get better understanding of the basic characteristics of nature of the Belt and Road from the point of view of regions, advantages and disadvantages in nature. The study also can provide necessary and effective scientific basis for management and protection of physical environment, natural disaster reduction, as well as the win-win construction of the Belt and Road.

2 Data source and analytic method

2.1 Data source

Of environmental factors, air temperature, precipitation, humidity, and runoff depth are the active and variable factors (Ding, 2010). Vegetation type/function change with the variable factors, which was given attention as well. Factors of terrain and soil were taken as relatively stable factors (Wu, 2008). The data source, duration, and spatial resolution of studies are shown in Table 1. Based on the simulation experiments on the past and scenario estimation of HadGEM2-ES model and the scenario of RCP8.5, the period of 1971-2000 was taken as baseline period and 2021-2050 as study period.
Table 1 The data sources for terrestrial areas of the Belt and Road
Index Data source Duration Spatial resolution
Terrain National Centers for Environmental Information 2009 1 km
Soil Harmonized World Soil Database 2012 1 km
Land-cover Centre for Earth System Science, Tsinghua
University		 2014 250 m
Protected areas World Database on natural reserves 2017 Reserve area
Temperature Met Office Hadley Centre 1950-2050 0.5° * 0.5°
Precipitation Met Office Hadley Centre 1950-2050 0.5° * 0.5°
SPEI Spanish National Research Council 1950-2004 0.5° * 0.5°
Runoff depth Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research 1971-2050 0.5° * 0.5°
NPP Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research 1971-2050 0.5° * 0.5°
Grain yield* Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison 1951-2050 0.5° * 0.5°
GDP World Bank 1960-2016 Countries

Note: *: Grain yield is the sum of rice, wheat, maize, and soybean production.

2.2 Methods

2.2.1 Characterization of spatial patterns of the resource environmental factors in the Belt and Road ArcGIS spatial analysis tool was applied to extract the values of factors and to obtain the spatial patterns for the resources and environmental factors in the Belt and Road On that basis, the past culture, strategic layout of the Belt and Road, socio-economic development, and climatic environment characteristics were taken as the main reference indexes, which were supplemented by other resource environmental indicators to identify the regional differentiation rules of the Belt and Road. By the methodology for the regionalization of the eco-geographic regional system in China (Zheng, 2008), the natural characteristics as well as factors of human activities and national integrity were taken into account to identify the regional differences.
2.2.2 Extreme event risk projection
(1) Trend analysis of variations in the environmental factors
According to the area-weighted average method of longitude-latitude grids (Jones and Hulme, 1996), the annual averages of resource environmental factors such as, air temperature, precipitation, depth of runoff, net primary productivity (NPP), and grain yield, in different regions of the Belt and Road were calculated. The algorithm was as following:
$\overline{X}=\frac{\sum\limits_{i=1}^{n}{(\cos ({{\alpha }_{i}})\times \frac{1}{{{k}_{i}}}\sum\limits_{j=1}^{{{k}_{i}}}{{{x}_{j}})}}}{\sum\limits_{i=1}^{n}{\cos ({{\alpha }_{i}})}}$, (1)
where $\bar{X}$ is the regional annual average of the calculated factor x, ${{\alpha }_{i}},i=1,2,...,n$ is the longitude and latitude for the grid’s central point, n is the number of grids, and ${{x}_{j}},j=1,2,...,{{k}_{i}}$ is the value of environmental factor in the ith grid. The method of univariate linear fitting and trend analysis are adopted to evaluate the variation trends of resource environmental factors during 2021-2050 in different sub-regions of the Belt and Road. Then a significance test is conducted.
(2) Extreme events risk classes
Heat wave index (HI, GB/T 29457-2012), composite index of meteorological drought (CI, GB/T 20481-2006) and flood index (FI, namely the number of times that the maximum 3-day precipitation) were applied to calculate the frequency for the occurrence of three extreme events at different levels and further adopted the superposition analysis method to obtain the risk of extreme events (Table 2).
Table 2 Classification of extreme events hazards including droughts (CI), heat waves (HI) and floods (FI)
Levels Index
CI HI FI
Mild -1.8<CI≤-1.2 2.8≤HI<6.5 30(35)-150 mm
Moderate -2.4<CI≤-1.8 6.5≤HI<10.5 150-250 mm
Severe CI≤-2.4 HI≥10.5 ≥250 mm

3 Regional differences

3.1 Natural environment characteristics

The terrestrial areas of the Belt and Road are from China, pass through Central Asia and Russia to Europe (the Baltic Sea), West Asia to the Persian Gulf and the Mediterranean, and extend to Southeast Asia, South Asia, and the Indian Ocean. The range of the areas is vast, and the environmental conditions are complicated and diverse.
(1) Various climates
According to the Köppen climate classification system (Köppen, 1900), terrestrial areas of the Belt and Road cover all the five climate zones (Tropical climates, Arid climates, Temperate climates, Cold climates, and Polar climates) and most climate types of the system. It passes through the tropics, temperate zones, and frigid zones and traverses monsoon, continental, and desert climates (Figures 2a and 2b). Most areas show a warming trend. The warming rate is relatively slower in the lower latitude areas with higher temperature while that is faster in the high latitude areas with lower temperatures. In humid Southeast Asia and South Asia the precipitation has increased, but the trend is not obvious. Precipitation in the arid and semi-arid regions of Central and West Asia, Northwest China, Mongolia, Russia and Central and Eastern Europe increases significantly.
Figure 2 The spatial distribution of annual average of environmental factors (a. temperature; b. precipitation; c. soil types; and d. vegetation cover) of the Belt and Road
(2) Complex terrain
The area includes the majestic mountains of the Himalayas, Kunlun Mountain, and Hindu Kush Mountains as well as the vast Tibetan Plateau, Pamirs, Iranian Plateau, the fertile plains of North China, the Ganges River, and Eastern Europe (Figure 1).
(3) Abundant soil
Soils in this area consist of a total of more than 30 types (NRSCC et al., 2015). Leptosols are most widely distributed, followed by Gleysols, Podzols, and Cambisols (Figure 2c).
(4) Varying hydrology
The spatial distribution of multi-decadal average runoff depth is consistent with that of precipitation. The region with the highest runoff depth is mainly located in South Asia and Southeast Asia, the runoff depth in Eastern Siberia, Mongolia, Central Asia, and West Asia is relatively low, and the runoff depth in Northwest China and in part of the Arabian Peninsula is the lowest.
(5) Heterogeneous vegetation
The forests are mainly distributed in Southeast Asia, Eastern China, Southern Siberia, and the north of Eastern European Plain, the grasses and shrubs are mainly distributed in the eastern Tibetan Plateau, Mongolia, Kazakh hills, and Caspian lowland, and the croplands are mainly distributed in Eastern China, the Indochina Peninsula, the Indian Peninsula, the southern region of the West Siberian Plain, and the coast of the Black Sea (NRSCC et al., 2015). Vegetation NPP gradually declines from the eastern and western edges of Eurasia towards the heartland (Figure 2d).

3.2 Socio-economic situations

Until 2015, the total sum of the gross domestic products (GDP) of 65 countries of the Belt and Road reached \$21 trillion, which accounted for 29% of the GDP of the world. In particular, the GDP of China increased from \$200 billion at the beginning of the reform and opening-up to \$11 trillion, and its share in the world increased from 5% to 15%. On the other hand, except for India, Russia, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, the economic developing level of most countries along the Belt and Road is relatively low. Meanwhile, the eco-environmental problems caused by economic development are urgently in need of economic structural transformation to enable sustainable development (Liu, 2017).

3.3 Recognition identification of natural regions

Based on differences of climate, terrain, soils, hydrology, and vegetation; considering historical and cultural background, and socio-economic developmental level, as well as advantage of the six major economic corridors (Xi, 2017); guided by the dividing methodology of the eco-geographical regional system of China (Zheng et al., 2008) and the Köppen climate classification (Köppen, 1900); the terrestrial areas of the Belt and Road are identified as nine sub-regions (Figure 3 and Table 3): Central and Eastern Europe sub-region with cold and humid climate (CEE), Mongolia and Russia sub-region with cold and arid climate (MR), Central and West Asia arid sub-region (CWA), Southeast Asia sub-region with warm and humid climate (SEA), Pakistan arid sub-region (PAK), Bangladesh-India-Myanmar sub-region with warm and humid climate (BIM), Eastern China monsoon sub-region (CNE), Northwest China arid sub-region (CNW), and Tibetan Plateau sub-region (TIB).
Figure 3 Sub-regions of the Belt and Road
Table 3 The covered countries or regions of the nine sub-regions of the “Belt and Road” and their environmental characteristics

Note: *: transforming from precipitation to runoff depth

3.4 Regional characteristics

Climate, terrain, soil, hydrology, vegetation NPP of the nine sub-regions are shown in Table 3, which displays great differences in the environment between regions.

4 Extreme event risks

According to AR5 (the Fifth Assessment Report) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (IPCC, 2013), the areas of the Belt and Road are sensitive to climate change. The weather and climate extreme events happen frequently, which would very likely cause increasing in risks of natural disasters and harm to the socio-economic. Projection of future environmental risk would help for adapting to climate change and avoiding natural disaster risks in the socio-economic construction. Risk levels for extreme events of heat waves, droughts, and floods were obtained based on the baseline (1971-2000) and future (RCP8.5, 2021-2050) climate data.

4.1 Variations in the environmental factors

The trend analysis and spatial distribution indicate that (Table 4 and Figure 4) temperature exhibits an ascending trend in the vast majority of sub-regions, which passes the significance test at the 0.05 level (Figure 4a). The overall trend in precipitation is not apparent. Precipitation increases and decreases without high significance, but its regional differences are obvious (Figure 4b). Variations in runoff depth (Figure 4c) would increase extreme events, which are very likely to cause the occurrence of disaster events (Figure 4d). The variations in the environmental climate-hydrological factors are significant. The results of such changes imply that those variations are most likely to increase major natural disasters arising from heat waves, droughts, and floods (Table 4).
Table 4 The projected trends of different factors during 2021-2050
Temperature
(℃/10a)		 Precipitation
(mm/10a)		 Runoff depth coefficient
(10-3/10a)		 NPP
(gC·m-2/10a)		 Grain yield
(t·ha-1/10a)
RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5
CEE 0.405* 0.305 -0.132 -7.83 -1.22 0.14 17.3 10.0* -0.0573 -0.308*
MR 0.725* 0.682* 16.1* 8.80 2.82 -0.65 18.9* 24.9* 0.122* 0.175*
SEA 0.275* 0.422* 16.0 49.9 3.24 3.26 15.1 33.8* -0.0606 -0.249*
CWA 0.495* 0.605* 5.24 -13.2* 3.50 0.78 4.87 -0.283* 0.0082 -0.200*
PAK 0.476* 0.530* -6.00 -17.4 -1.22 5.28 -1.20 4.14* -0.321 -0.304
BIM 0.424* 0.582* -5.38 -44.8 -0.35 -4.71 5.11 19.7* -0.358 -0.424*
CNE 0.352* 0.587* 5.49 18.1 -6.12 -2.54 10.5 28.3* -0.0271 0.203
CNW 0.310* 0.646* 0.275 0.823 -0.097 -2.72 1.75 2.75* -0.0146 0.040
TIB 0.544* 0.585* 0.335 4.18 -0.71 -1.18 -0.220* 32.0* 0.0856* 0.151*

Note: *: passed the significance test of 0.05 level.

Figure 4 Annual mean changes of different resources and environment factors in typical regions (a. temperature increase in MR; b. precipitation fluctuation in SEA; c. runoff coefficients variation in CNE; d. crop yield decreases in BIM; baseline period is from 1971 to 2000)

4.2 Risk of heat wave events

The high risk areas of heat waves are mainly distributed in the southern part of Eastern China monsoon sub-region, the western part of Northwest China arid sub-region, the northern part of Central and West Asia arid sub-region, Southeast Asia sub-region with warm and humid climate, and part of the southern region of Central and Eastern Europe sub-region with cold and humid climate, especially in the mid-lower latitude areas. The total area of high heat wave risk would be 11.8 million km2, which takes 23.4% of the total area of the Road and Belt. And approximately 1.8 billion people would be affected, occupying 35.6% of the total population. These areas hold total GDP of 30.5 trillion USD, or 44.3% of the total GDP. The areas, which might reach medium heat wave risk, are mainly distributed in the western part of Eastern China monsoon sub-region, the central and southern parts of Central and West Asia arid sub-region, the eastern part of Bangladesh-India-Myanmar sub-region with warm and humid climate, and the western part of Pakistan arid sub-region (Figure 5). The affected area would reach 22.2 million km2, or 44.3% of the total area of the Road and Belt. Nearly 3 billion people would be affected, which would be 57% of the total population. These areas hold total GDP of 45.9 trillion USD, or 66.6% of the total GDP. Heat waves harm human health, increase the risk of disease and death, affect agriculture, forestry and animal husbandry production, aggravate the degree of drought, and damage crop growth. Increases in heat wave intensity are generally 0.5-1.5℃ above a given global warming threshold. In particular, in the regions of the Mediterranean coast and Central Asia, the increase in the strength of heat waves is more rapid (Perkins-Kirkpatrick and Gibson, 2017). The future precipitation in some regions of the Belt and Road is expected to decrease, and the warming and drying climate trend will likely cause heat wave events with increasingly serious hazards.
Figure 5 Heat wave hazard risks for the Belt and Road

4.3 Risk of drought events

The high drought risk areas are mainly distributed in the western part of Central and Eastern Europe sub-region with cold and humid climate, the northern part of Central and West Asia arid sub-region, the north-eastern part of Pakistan arid sub-region, part of Southeast Asia sub-region with warm and humid climate, Tibetan Plateau sub-region, the western part of Northwest China arid sub-region, and the southern part of Eastern China monsoon sub-region. The total area of high drought risk would be 3.64 million km2, or 7.2% of the total area of the Road and Belt. And approximate 0.43 billion people would be affected, being 8.2% of the total population. These areas hold total GDP of 7.1 trillion USD, or 10.4% of the total GDP. The areas, which might reach medium drought risk are distributed in the northeastern part of Central and Eastern Europe sub-region with cold and humid climate, the central and western part of Mongolia and Russia sub-region with cold and arid climate, and the southern part of Bangladesh-India-Myanmar sub-region with warm and humid climate (Figure 6). The affected area would reach 11.43 million km2, or 26.5% of the total area of the Road and Belt. Nearly 1.44 billion people would be affected, or 27.6% of the total population. These areas hold total GDP of 21.1 trillion USD, or 30.7% of the total GDP. Drought events will cause a series of problems that include economic losses, ecological degradation and social unrest (Zhang et al., 2016). In the context of climate warming, the occurrence frequency of drought events in the Belt and Road is higher, the duration time is longer, the range of impact is larger, and the influences on agriculture, water resource, ecology and socio-economy are also more serious.
Figure 6 Drought hazard risks for the Belt and Road

4.4 Risk of flood events

The areas of high flood risk mainly appear in the southern and northern parts of Bangladesh-India-Myanmar sub-region with warm and humid climate, the eastern part of Eastern China monsoon sub-region, and the southern part of Pakistan arid sub-region. The total area of high flood risk would be 3.4 million km2, making up 6.7% of the total area of the Road and Belt. And approximately 1.7 billion people, or 31.8% of the total population, would be affected. These areas hold total GDP of 22.9 trillion USD, or 33.2% of the total GDP. The areas, which might reach medium flood risk, mainly appear in the eastern part of Mongolia and Russia sub-region with cold and arid climate, the western and northern parts of Eastern China monsoon sub-region, part of Southeast Asia sub-region with warm and humid climate, the northern part of Pakistan arid sub-region, and the southern part of Central and West Asia arid sub-region (Figure 7). The affected area would reach 10.5 million km2, taking 20.8% of the total area of the Road and Belt. Nearly 3 billion people would be affected, accounting for 56.9% of the total population. These areas hold total GDP of 37.8 trillion USD, or 54.9% of the total GDP. Flood events destroy the living environments of human beings and biological growth environments and cause losses to human life and property and to the socio-economy. The strengths of future flood events in the Belt and Road gradually increase with global warming, especially in the middle and low-latitude regions, where the precipitation strength is high and the hazard range is large. The increase in exposed range indicates the necessity of adopting adaptive measures prior to significant warming (Hirabayashi et al., 2013).
Figure 7 Flood hazard risks for the Belt and Road

5 Conclusions

The main conclusion through analysis and comparison of regional characteristics and changing trends of resource environmental factors for terrestrial areas of the Belt and Road, and assessment of the extreme event risks under the future scenario of climate change are:
(1) Environment of the Belt and Road as a whole has definite regional difference, which could be identified into nine sub-regions based on regional characteristics of climate, terrain, soils, hydrology and vegetation. The nine sub-regions are: Central and Eastern Europe sub-region with cold and humid climate (CEE), Mongolia and Russia sub-region with cold and arid climate (MR), Central and West Asia arid sub-region (CWA), Southeast Asia sub-region with warm and humid climate (SEA), Pakistan arid sub-region (PAK), Bangladesh-India-Myanmar sub-region with warm and humid climate (BIM), Eastern China monsoon sub-region (CNE), Northwest China arid sub-region (CNW), and Tibetan Plateau sub-region (TIB).
(2) The environmental change along the Belt and Road is significant. The observations indicate an obvious warming trend, and the precipitation in most areas increases. It is estimated that the future warming rates in the middle and low-latitude regions will speed up, the regions with decreased precipitation will expand, and warming and drying trends will mainly appear in the western part of the Eurasian continent.
(3) Extreme events under climate change would increase and the future risk of natural disasters is prominent. The regions on two sides of the Tibetan Plateau are the high risk areas for heat waves. The eastern part of Central and Eastern Europe sub-region with cold and humid climate is the high risk area for droughts. Bangladesh-India-Myanmar sub-region with warm and humid climate and Eastern China monsoon sub-region are the high risk are as for floods.
Construction of the Silk Road economic belt in the future needs to establish an early warning system for the high-risk areas on the basis of risk evaluations for extreme events such as heat waves, droughts, and floods, strengthen the vulnerability assessments for different areas and industries, and establish an effective technical system to cope with extreme events.

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

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Köppen W, 1900. Versuch einer Klassifikation der Klimate, vorzugsweise nach ihren Beziehungen zur Pflanzenwelt.Geographische Zeitschrift, 6(11.H): 593-611.http://www.jstor.org/stable/27803924

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[11]
Li P, Qian H, Ken W,et al., 2015. Building a new and sustainable “Silk Road Economic Belt”.Environmental Earth Sciences, 74(10): 7267-7270.

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[12]
Li X W, Zhang L, Guo H D,et al., 2016. Space recognition of eco-environment global change response of arid and semi-arid region of the Silk Road Economic Belt.Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 31(5): 559-566. (in Chinese)Under the influence of intensive human activities and global change, the resources and environment of the Silk Road Economic Belt are facing the severe issues and challenges. As a core area of the Silk Road Economic Belt, Central Asia and its surrounding area is well known for its ecological environment degradation in arid and semi-arid regions all over the world. The ecological environment degradation seriously restricted the economic and social development in Central Asia and its neighboring countries. In this study, aimed at the typical factors of ecological environment in Xinjiang of China, Central Asia and its surrounding area, such as climate, vegetation, and water, the spatial and temporal variation of these typical factors and its responses to global change were studied and analyzed based on the long time series of satellite remote sensing data. The results indicated that, in Central Asia and its surrounding area, ecological environment changes presented a trend of deterioration in recent decades, specifically by water storage reduction, lake area shrink, soil moisture decreasing, vegetation degradation, etc.

[13]
Li Z H, Wang J L, Zhao Z P,et al., 2014. Eco-environment patterns and ecological civilization modes in the Silk Road Economic Zone.Resources Science, (12): 2476-2482. (in Chinese)

[14]
Liu W D, 2015. Scientific understanding of the Belt and Road Initiative of China and related research themes.Progress in Geography, 34(5): 538-544. (in Chinese)The Belt and Road Initiative here the "Belt" stands for the Silk Road Economic Belt and the "Road" stands for the 21 st Century Maritime Silk Road s a call of China for new modes of regional economic cooperation under the trend of development of economic globalization. It targets at promoting orderly and free flow of economic factors, efficient allocation of resources, and deep integration of markets; enabling the countries along the Belt and Road to achieve economic policy coordination and carry out broader, deeper, and more efficient economic cooperation; and jointly building an open, inclusive, and balanced regional economic cooperation architecture. Thus the Belt and Road Initiative is an alternative road to further economic globalization, but contains ideas that are different from the past, that is, the spirit of the Silk Road "peace and cooperation, openness and inclusiveness, mutual learning and win-win." Based on such an understanding, this article first analyzes the general background of the Belt and Road Initiative against economic globalization and the changing configurations of the world, and then discusses the Initiative's spatial connotation by revealing its multi-scalar and transscalar characteristics. The article points out that the Belt and Road Initiative is a national strategy, rather than a regional strategy, to coordinate all-around opening of China to the world and promote further integration of the country into the global economy. Last, the article suggests several research themes in geography that are brought about by the Belt and Road Initiative, including geopolitical studies, geography of countries of the region to explore cooperation opportunities, foreign direct investment theories advanced by the Belt and Road Initiative, and optimization of transcontinental transportation.

[15]
Liu W D, 2017.The Belt and Road Strategy Research. Beijing: The Commercial Press. (in Chinese)

[16]
Ma A N, 2007. Theoretical Geographical Science and Philosophy. Beijing: Higher Education Press. (in Chinese)

[17]
National Remote Sensing Center of China (NRSCC), Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China, 2015. Global Ecosystems and Environment Observation: Annual Report from China (The Belt and Road Initiative Ecological and Environmental Conditions). (in Chinese)

[18]
National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China, 2015. Vision and Actions on Jointly Building Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road.Finance & Accounting for Communications, (4): 82-87. (in Chinese)

[19]
Perkins-Kirkpatrick S E, Gibson P B, 2017. Changes in regional heatwave characteristics as a function of increasing global temperature.Scientific Reports, 7(1): 12256.Abstract The Paris Agreement calls for global warming to be limited to 1.5-209000900°C. For the first time, this study investigates how different regional heatwave characteristics (intensity, frequency and duration) are projected to change relative to increasing global warming thresholds. Increases in heatwave days between 4-34 extra days per season are projected per 00°C of global warming. Some tropical regions could experience up to 120 extra heatwave days/season if 509000900°C is reached. Increases in heatwave intensity are generally 0.5-1.509000900°C above a given global warming threshold, however are higher over the Mediterranean and Central Asian regions. Between warming thresholds of 1.509000900°C and 2.509000900°C, the return intervals of intense heatwaves reduce by 2-3 fold. Heatwave duration is projected to increase by 2-10 days/00°C, with larger changes over lower latitudes. Analysis of two climate model ensembles indicate that variation in the rate of heatwave changes is dependent on physical differences between different climate models, however internal climate variability bears considerable influence on the expected range of regional heatwave changes per warming threshold. The results of this study reiterate the potential for disastrous consequences associated with regional heatwaves if global mean warming is not limited to 2 degrees.

DOI PMID

[20]
Wu G H, 2008. Physical Geography. Beijing: Higher Education Press. (in Chinese)

[21]
Wu S, Dai E, Huang M,et al., 2007. Ecosystem vulnerability of China under B2 climate scenario in the 21st century.Chinese Science Bulletin, 52(10): 1379-1386.This paper applies climate change scenarios in China based on the SRES assumptions with the help of RCMs projections by PRECIS (providing regional climates for impacts studies) system introduced to China from the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research at a high-resolution (50 km×50 km) over China. This research focuses on B2 scenario of SRES. A biogeochemical model “Atmosphere Vegetation Integrated Model (AVIM2)” was applied to simulating ecosystem status in the 21st century. Then vulnerability of ecosystems was assessed based on a set of index of mainly net primary produc-tion (NPP) of vegetation. Results show that climate change would affect ecosystem of China severely and there would be a worse trend with the lapse of time. The regions where having vulnerable eco-logical background would have heavier impacts while some regions with better ecological background would also receive serious impacts. Extreme climate even would bring about worse impact on the ecosystems. Open shrub and desert steppe would be the two most affected types. When the extreme events happen, vulnerable ecosystem would extend to part of defoliate broad-leaved forest, woody grassland and evergreen conifer forest. Climate change would not always be negative. It could be of some benefit to cold region during the near-term. However, in view of mid-term to long-term negative impact on ecosystem vulnerability would be enormously.

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[22]
Wu S H, Pan T, Liu Y H,et al., 2017. Comprehensive climate change risk regionalization of China.Acta Geographica Sinica, 72(1): 3-17. (in Chinese)The influence of climate change on the natural environmental and socio- economic system leads to a series of adverse effects. With the development of socio- economy, climate change hazards interact with the environmental and socio-economic risk bearing body and form the spatial- temporal patterns of climate change risk. The systematic expression of the spatialtemporal patterns is the scientific foundation of climate changes adaptation. Based on the RCP8.5 climate scenario data from 2021 to 2050, we analyzed the variation trend and rate of temperature and precipitation, and assessed the hazard of extreme climate events including drought, heat wave and flood. Then, economy, population, food production and ecosystem were selected as the risk bearing bodies to assess the possible impacts of climate change as the indices qualifying the comprehensive climate change risk. Under the guidance of systematic principle, predominating factor principle, as well as the space consecution principle, we proposed a scheme of three- level regional division system for the comprehensive climate change risk regionalization in China. Finally, the Chinese mainland was divided into 8 climate change sensitive zones, 19 danger zones of extreme events and 46 comprehensive risk zones of bearing body. The result shows that the climate changes high risk zones in China under the RCP8.5 climate scenario from 2021 to 2050 include North China weak warming and precipitation increased sensitive zone, North China Plain heat wave danger zone, populationeconomy- food high risk zone, South China- Southwest China weak warming and precipitation increased sensitive zone, Yunnan- Guizhou mountain heat wave danger zone, ecosystemeconomy- food- population high risk zone; coastal South China flood- heat wave danger zone,ecosystem- food- economy- population high risk zone. The comprehensive climate change risk regionalization of China covers the climate change scenarios, the extreme events, and the possible lost information of the socio- economy and ecosystem, which can provide scientific and technological support for national and local governments to cope with the climate change and risk management.

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[23]
Xu H, Qimanguli Y, Yao R,et al., 2016. Environmental risk analysis and responding strategy for the Belt and Road Initiative.Chinese Journal of Environmental Management, 8(2): 36-41. (in Chinese)

[24]
Yao T D, Guo H D, 2017. Extensive third pole environment and the Belt and Road synergistic development.Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Z2: 23-25. (in Chinese)

[25]
Xi J P, 2017. Work Together to Build the Silk Road Economic Belt and The 21st Century Maritime Silk Road: Speech at the Opening Ceremony of The Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation (14 May 2017, Beijing).China Economic Weekly, 20: 54-57. (in Chinese)

[26]
Zhang Q, Han L, Jia J,et al., 2016. Management of drought risk under global warming.Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 125(1/2): 187-196.Drought is a serious ecological problem around the world, and its impact on crops and water availability for humans can jeopardize human life. Although drought has always been common, the drought risk has become increasingly prominent because of the climatic warming that has occurred during the past century. However, it still does not comprehensively understand the mechanisms that determine the occurrence of the drought risk it poses to humans, particularly in the context of global climate change. In this paper, we summarize the progress of research on drought and the associated risk, introduce the principle of a drought “transition” from one stage to another, synthesize the characteristics of key factors and their interactions, discuss the potential effect of climatic warming on drought risk, and use this discussion to define the basic requirements for a drought risk management system. We also discuss the main measures that can be used to prevent or mitigate droughts in the context of a risk management strategy.

DOI

[27]
Zheng D, 2008. Study on the Eco-geographical Region System of China. Beijing: The Commercial Press. (in Chinese)

[28]
Zhu J, 2017. Climate change research and observation project.Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Z2: 29-31. (in Chinese)

[29]
Zou J L, Liu C L, Yin G Q,et al., 2015. Spatial patterns and economic effects of China’s trade with countries along the Belt and Road.Progress in Geography, 34(5): 598-605. (in Chinese)Policy coordination, facilities connectivity, unimpeded trade, financial integration, and people-to-people bond are the focus of international cooperation of the "Belt and Road Initiative". Exports of the provinces in China to the "Belt and Road Initiative" area is the main content of the "Unimpeded trade and Financial integration," but research on trade between China and countries in the "Belt and Road Initiative" area are relatively rare,and trade interdependence remains unclear. According to the latest data from the International Trade Center, Chinese customs statistics in 2014, and Multi-regional Input-Output Table of China's 30 provinces in 2010, we analyzed the trade interdependence between China and countries of the "Belt and Road Initiative" area, and the contribution of provincial export to the GDP of each province. The results show that: trade interdependence had deepen between China and countries of the "Belt and Road Initiative" area, but the interdependence was asymmetrical; at the provincial level, the relatively high GDP contribution of exports in coastal provinces shows that these provinces are more export-dependent. Xinjiang has the highest GDP contribution of export(to Central Asia)and is thus strongly export dependent.

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