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Journal of Geographical Sciences >

2019 , Vol. 29 >Issue 3: 323 - 333

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-019-1600-7

Research Articles

The impact of global cropland changes on terrestrial ecosystem services value, 1992-2015

  • LI Yuanyuan , 1, 2, 3 ,
  • TAN Minghong , 1, 2, * ,
  • HAO Haiguang 3
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  • 1. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
  • 2. International College, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • 3. State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China
*Corresponding author: Tan Minghong (1970-), PhD, E-mail:

Author: Li Yuanyuan (1993-), specialized in land use change. E-mail:

Received date: 2018-01-04

  Accepted date: 2018-07-25

  Online published: 2019-03-20

Supported by

National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41771116, No.41501095

National Basic Research Program of China, No.2015CB452705

National Key Research and Development Program of China, No.2016YFC0502103

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Journal of Geographical Sciences, All Rights Reserved
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Abstract

From 1992 to 2015, ecological environment has been threatened by the changes of cropland around the world. In order to evaluate the impact of cropland changes on ecosystem, we calculated the response of terrestrial ecosystem service values (TESVs) variation to cropland conversion based on land-use data from European Space Agency (ESA). The results showed that cropland changes were responsible for an absolute loss of $166.82 billion, equivalent to 1.17% of global TESVs in 1992. Among the different regions, the impact of cropland changes on TESVs was significant in South America and Africa but not obvious in Oceania, Asia and Europe. Cropland expansion from tropical forest was the main reason for decreases in TESVs globally, especially in South America, Africa and Asia. The effect of wetland converted to cropland was notable in North America and Europe while grassland converted to cropland played an important role in Oceania, Africa and Asia. In Europe, the force of urban expansion cannot be ignored as well. The conversion of cropland to tropical or temperate forest partly compensated for the loss of TESVs globally, especially in Asia.

Key words： terrestrial ecosystem services values (TESVs); cropland conversion; global

Cite this article

LI Yuanyuan , TAN Minghong , HAO Haiguang . The impact of global cropland changes on terrestrial ecosystem services value, 1992-2015[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019 , 29(3) : 323 -333 . DOI: 10.1007/s11442-019-1600-7

1 Introduction

Along with the growth of population and the development of economy, global cropland area continuing increased during 1992 to 2015 (FAOSTAT, 2017). However, although land is fixed, food is easily to shift from one country to another through global trade. Therefore, under the circumstance of globalization, the expansion of cropland was spatially imbalanced at a global level. During the process of global trade, the import-countries not only import goods, but also import various natural resources and ecological environment from export-countries. Higher-income countries tend to displace higher proportion of cropland abroad. In particular, Europe and Japan shift high pressure of ecosystems to lower-income countries (Weinzettel et al., 2013). On the contrary, since 2000, foreign investors have contracted substantial land in Africa for crop planting (Schoneveld, 2017), which caused water risk in land acquisition area even with the most efficient irrigation implements (Johansson et al., 2016). As a result, the spatial shift of cropland area would bring about a spatially imbalanced change in ecological environment. Plenty of environmental problems have emerged in cropland expansion areas, such as water and soil erosion (Tilman et al., 2002), non-point pollution (Zhang et al., 2004), water scarcity (Varis and Kummu, 2012), loss of biodiversity (Laurance et al., 2014) and greenhouse gas emissions (Defries et al., 2002).
On the other hand, rapid urbanization happened around the world as well. The percentage of population residing in urban areas increased by 11% during this period (UN, 2017). Usually, urban sprawl has negative impact on environment service values (ESVs) (Dupras and Alam, 2014; Cai et al., 2017; Lu et al., 2017). Cropland, particularly productive cropland (Tan et al., 2005; Song et al., 2015), is the most likely source of urban land. According to the projection of Bren d’Amour et al. (2017), urban expansion will bring about a 1.8%-2.4% reduction of global cropland by 2030. So, under the double pressure of cropland expansion and urban expansion, what did the ecological environment change correlated to cropland change? How to measure the changes? What was the regional difference of them? What were the specific reasons of terrestrial ecosystem service values (TESVs) loss in different regions? These questions are what we cared about.
Various ecological issues have aroused more and more public concerns. People began to attach importance to the goods and services provided by natural ecosystems. To evaluate the worth of ecosystem services, researchers calculated and estimated the economic value of them (Costanza et al., 1997; de Groot et al., 2012; Xie et al., 2017). In this way, the ecosystem services can be described quantitatively. The most significant contribution of ESVs is that it reminds people to treat natural assets as important components of wealth, well-being and sustainability (Costanza et al., 2014). Based on this recognition, Li and Fang (2014) overlaid ESVs map and GDP map at global scale to produce a synthetic green GDP.
Many studies focused on the impact of land-use change on ESVs at regional scale (Fu et al., 2016; Quintas-Soriano et al., 2016), while global-scale estimates were relatively rare (Song, 2018). Among different land cover changes, forest change on ESVs usually attracted more attention (Sheng et al., 2017). However, cropland is the foundation of food production which is greatly affected by human activities all over the world (Shi et al., 2016). In fact, the most important form of land conversion during the past decades was cropland expansion based on previous research (Lambin and Meyfroidt, 2011). As a result, cropland played an important role in ESVs variation around the world. For example, the reclamation of cropland accounted for the largest loss in ESV in China from 1988 to 2008 (Song and Deng, 2017). In this case, it is essential to estimate the impact of cropland changes on ESVs at global scale with a relatively consistent dataset. Given that the proportion of marine ecosystems is too large at global level, this article only focused on TESVs.

2 Materials and methodology

2.1 Data sources

The land-use maps in this study were derived from the latest land cover classification dataset products of European Space Agency (ESA), including annual data between 1992 and 2015 with a resolution of 300 m (ESA, 2017). The relatively consistency of the dataset guarantees that the data are comparable among years. Besides that, we used the framework established by Costanza et al. (1997), which has been widely used all over the world in assessing the TESVs of different land cover types.

2.2 Calculation of TESVs

According to the assessment model proposed by Costanza et al. (1997), the biosphere was divided into 16 ecosystems and 17 services types. Combined with land-use maps, we grouped the ecosystems into seven types: cropland, tropical forest, temperate/boreal forest, grassland, wetland, bare land and urban areas. Wetland owns the highest value among the seven types, followed by tropical forest, temperate forest, grassland and cropland. In this assessment model, bare land and urban areas have no value (Table 1). The total value of terrestrial ecosystems can be calculated as:
$TESV=\sum{{{A}_{i}}\times {{V}_{i}}}$ (1)
Table 1 TESVs per unit area ($/ha per year based on the 2016 value of the USD) (after Costanza et al., 1997)
Ecosystem services Tropical forest Temperate forest Grassland Cropland Wetland
Gas regulation 0.00 0.00 11.34 0.00 215.46
Climate regulation 361.26 142.56 0.00 0.00 0.00
Disturbance regulation 8.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 7353.18
Water regulation 9.72 0.00 4.86 0.00 24.30
Water supply 12.96 0.00 0.00 0.00 6156.00
Erosion control 396.90 0.00 46.98 0.00 0.00
Soil formation 16.20 16.20 1.62 0.00 0.00
Nutrient cycling 1493.64 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Waste treatment 140.94 140.94 140.94 0.00 6766.74
Pollination 0.00 0.00 40.50 22.68 0.00
Biological control 0.00 6.48 37.26 38.88 0.00
Habitat/Refugia 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 492.48
Food production 51.84 81.00 108.54 87.48 414.72
Raw materials 510.30 40.50 0.00 0.00 171.72
Genetic resources 66.42 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Recreation 181.44 58.32 3.24 0.00 929.88
Cultural 3.24 3.24 0.00 0.00 1427.22
Total 3251.00 489.00 376.00 149.00 23952.00
where Ai is the total area of ecosystem i and Vi is the monetary value of ecosystem i. So, the change caused by cropland ecosystems can be written as:
(2)
where Ac-i represents the loss area of cropland converted to ecosystem i between 1992 and 2015, while Ai-c represents the gain area of cropland converted from ecosystem i during the study period. Vc is the monetary value of cropland. The change rates between 1992 and 2015 are:
(3)
${{R}_{2}}=\frac{\Delta TES{{V}_{c}}}{\sum {{A}_{i1992}}\times {{V}_{i}}}$(4)
R1 shows the impact of cropland conversion on TESVs of changing areas correlated to cropland while R2 represents the impact of cropland compared to total TESVs of 1992.

3 Results and discussion

3.1 Cropland change

During 1992 to 2015, new cropland was largely distributed at the edge of Amazon forest, Eurasian steppe and Sahara Desert (Figure 1). The main sources of it were tropical forest and grassland, accounting for 41.03% and 38.13%, respectively. Cropland converted from forest was mostly located in South America, Southeast Asia, Europe and Sub-Saharan Africa. Around the Central Asia, North Africa and Southeast Australia, cropland usually converted from grassland.
Figure 1 Cropland gains between 1992 and 2015
The underlying factors driving changes in cropland can be summarized as either natural or human-induced. Over long time scales, the effects of natural factors are more pronounced. Researchers found that cropland have expanded in higher latitude or altitude regions as a result of global warming during the past decades (Iizumi and Ramankutty, 2015), such as the expansion of cropping boundary in Northeast China (Piao et al., 2010).
On the other hand, human-induced factors exert a more significant impact on cropland changes over shorter time scales, which can be found through 24 years of ESA data. According to previous research, the expansion of Amazon forest, Sub-Sahara Desert, Southeast Asia and Central Asia was closely related to increasing foreign investment and inherent suitability for large-scale management (Schoneveld, 2014; Antonelli et al., 2015; Swinnen et al., 2017). Rapid expansion of cropland in the southeastern Amazon forest, for example, was mainly related to the global trade in soybeans; this crop alone was responsible for a 33.8% reduction in forested area between 1988 and 2015 (Damien et al., 2017). The rapid cropland expansion seen in Indonesia and Malaysia may be related to the production of biofuels like oil palm (Tscharntke et al., 2012).
As for cropland decreasing area, the demise of communism in the former Soviet Union resulted in the widespread abandonment of cropland in Eastern Europe during the 1990s (Smaliychuk et al., 2016). Besides that, urban growth, as a result of economic development, often occurs at the expense of croplands, especially high-yield cultivated areas (Vliet et al., 2017). This situation was concentrated in Europe, East Asia and North America during 1992 to 2015 (Figure 2). In addition, some countries adopted a series of policies aimed at encouraging farmers to let their land lie fallow or to convert it to forests or grasslands, which also caused a decrease of cropland. Examples include Grain for Green program in China, the Conservation Reserve Program in the United States, and the land fallow and crop production system that has been implemented in the European Union.
Figure 2 Cropland loss between 1992 and 2015

3.2 Changes in TESVs at global level

The total global TESVs of 1992 were \$14.27 trillion. Asia took up 31.64% of the global TESVs, ranking the first place, followed by South America and Africa, accounting for 25.49% and 23.46% respectively. A reduction of TESVs caused by cropland conversion was $166.82 billion, equaled to 1.17% of the total TESVs in 1992. In the changing areas correlated to cropland, the TESVs decreased by 65.21% globally. From the detailed calculation, it can be seen that conversion of tropical forest to cropland is the main reason for the decrease of TESVs (Table 2), up to \$187.47 billion, which exceeded the net reduction caused by cropland conversion. Previous studies have also shown that tropical forests were the primary sources of new cropland in the 1980s and 1990s, which were mainly distributed in South America, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Southeast Asia (Gibbs et al., 2010). Among the 17 ecosystem services, the ESVs of nutrient cycling decreased largely (\$63.94 billion). Only the ESVs of biological control increased a little, about \$1.37 billion.
Table 2 Changes in TESVs caused by cropland changes at a global level, 1992-2015
1992 2015 V ($/ha) A (×106 ha) TESVs (×109 $)
Cropland converted into Tropical forest 3102.00 17.62 54.67
Temperate forest 340.00 12.43 4.23
Grassland 227.00 6.77 1.54
Wetland 23803.00 0.05 1.12
Urban -149.00 25.02 -3.73
Bare land -149.00 0.64 -0.09
Tropical forest Converted into cropland -3102.00 60.44 -187.47
Temperate forest -340.00 25.96 -8.83
Grassland -227.00 56.17 -12.75
Wetland -23803.00 0.68 -16.12
Bare land 149.00 4.07 0.61

3.3 Changes of TESVs at regional level

With the same method, we calculated the changes of TESVs caused by cropland changes in different regions (Table 3).
Table 3 Changes in TESVs caused by cropland changes at regional level, 1992-2015
Region TESVs of 1992 (×109 $) Growth rate of cropland area (%) TESVs gains caused by cropland loss (×109 $) TESVs loss caused by cropland gains (×109 $) TESVs (×109 $) R1 (%) R2 (%) Main Reason
Global 14269.62 3.96 57.73 224.56 -166.83 -65.21 -1.17 A
North America 1624.14 1.31 2.44 18.93 -16.48 -78.72 -1.01 B
South America 3622.39 12.02 19.85 101.50 -81.65 -74.74 -2.25 A
Africa 3334.06 7.52 9.04 51.99 -42.95 -73.92 -1.29 A
Europe 548.15 -0.67 0.12 3.33 -3.21 -54.57 -0.59 C
Asia 4496.71 2.34 25.86 47.58 -21.72 -36.46 -0.48 A
Oceania 587.69 4.26 0.38 1.01 -0.63 -36.26 -0.11 D

Notes: A stands for the main reason of decreasing TESVs, which was cropland converted from tropical forest. Similarly, B stands for cropland converted from wetland; C stands for cropland converted from temperate forest and D stands for cropland converted from grassland.

Among the six continents, the most significant change of TESVs happened in South America where the changing value was tantamount to 2.25% of the total TESVs of South America in 1992. Meanwhile, the growth rate of cropland area in South America was 12.02%, also ranking the first place among the six continents. In the cropland conversion area, the TESVs decreased sharply by 74.74%. In possession of “the lung of the earth”, South America took up nearly a quarter of the total TESVs. However, a reduction of $81.65 billion caused by cropland change between 1992 and 2015 almost accounted for half of the total global TESVs variation during the period, suggesting a severe situation of ecological destruction in South America. The main reason for the reduction was the loss of tropical forest, especially at the edge of Amazon forest (Figure 3). Previous researches have paid much attention to the deforestation of Amazon during the past decades (Brown et al., 2016). The phenomenon of TESVs loss caused by cropland change was greatly significant in Brazil, tantamount to 3.62% of the total value of Brazil in 1992, which was mainly caused by soybean cultivation. However, researchers found that in most areas, the value of original ecosystem services exceeded the value of soybean rents (Mann et al., 2012).
Figure 3 Cropland change in South America, 1992-2015 (Tropical forest-Cropland means that tropical forest in 1992 was converted into cropland in 2015. Other conversions are similar to this.)
Along with the rapid expansion of cropland in Africa, there was also a substantial decrease of TESVs, equaling to 1.29% of the TESVs of Africa in 1992, occupying nearly a quarter of the total TESVs reduction around the world caused by cropland change. Quantity of tropical forest was destroyed, converting to cropland in this region. Besides this, the loss of grassland also had an evident impact on the loss of TESVs in Africa, particularly at the south edge of the Sahara Desert (Figure 4). The loss of TESVs was serious in many African countries like Algeria, Malawi and Liberia. Among the top 10 TESVs loss countries due to cropland change around the world, African countries took half of the seats (Figure 5). Niquisse and Cabral (2017) found that the ESVs of Mozambique decreased by 11.4% between 2005 and 2009 while the cropland biome increased considerably during this period. Nowadays, land grabbing in Africa has become more and more widespread (Conigliani et al., 2018). According to the projection of Kubiszewski et al. (2017), ESVs will decrease most sharply in Africa by 2050 under the scenario of market forces.
Figure 4 Cropland change in Africa, 1992-2015
Figure 5 The extent of TESVs changes caused by cropland change (R2), 1992-2015
In North America, larger area of wetland was converted to cropland compared to other continents, which brought about an obvious decrease of TESVs in the changing areas.
Most of the lost wetlands are distributed along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts, called estuarine wetland. As stated in the review by U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service, the area of estuarine wetland continuously decreased from the 1950s to the 1990s. Between 1986 and 1997, nearly a quarter of the wetland was converted to cropland (Dahl, 2000).
Although the area of cropland decreased in Europe between 1992 and 2015, the conversion of cropland still led to a decrease in TESVs, tantamount to 0.59% of the TESVs of Europe in 1992. Unlike other regions, 67% of the lost cropland converted to urban areas, deteriorating the ecological environment. Certainly, the conversion of cropland to temperate forest contributed to the major decrease of TESVs. However, the obvious difference between TESVs change caused by cropland gains and loss suggested that the effect of urban expansion in Europe cannot be ignored as well. Except from temperate forest loss and urban expansion, wetland converted to cropland also took a place in the reduction of TESVs in Europe. In the Hungarian Plain, 30% of croplands lie on former wetland (Pinke et al., 2018).
The increase of TESVs caused by cropland loss was evident in Asia, taking up 44.79% of the global gains. As a result, the net decrease of TESVs was relatively small in Asia in spite of a not small growth rate of cropland expansion and the largest TESVs proportion in 1992, only equivalent to 0.48% of original TESVs. Large area of forest was converted from cropland during the period, which may have a relationship with environmental conservation policies in East Asia and the forest transition in Southeast Asia. The loss of grassland to cropland had an impact on the decrease of TESVs as well in Asia, especially at the edge of Eurasian Steppe.
The least change of TESVs was happened in Oceania where the main source of new cropland was grassland, taking up 80.63%. The unit value of cropland and grassland was relatively similar. As a result, TESVs caused by cropland change only equaled to 0.11% of the total value in 1992.

3.4 Uncertainties of the method

The assessment of ESV proposed by Costanza et al. in 1997 raised public concerns of environmental protection and started a boom in this topic research. However, the assessment overestimated the value of wetland and underestimated the value of cropland, which has been criticized in previous research (Xie et al., 2003). Besides, some researchers also showed concerns of limitations and constrains of benefit transfer method which is the foundation of the assessment (Johnston and Rosenberger, 2010).

4 Conclusions

Referred to the ESVs per unit area defined by Costanza et al. (1997), we focused on the impact of cropland changes on global TESVs between 1992 and 2015. With the help of land-use data from ESA, we obtained three main conclusions:
(1) The reduction of TESVs caused by cropland conversion was $166.82 billion, tantamount to 1.17% of global TESVs in 1992. The major loss was happened in new cropland region converted from tropical forest.
(2) The TESVs of South America took up nearly a quarter of global value, but the reduction of TESVs caused by cropland change made up almost half of the global value, equivalent to 2.25% of total TESVs of South America in 1992. Except from South America, the impact of cropland changes on TESVs was significant in Africa but not obvious in Oceania, Asia and Europe.
(3) Cropland expansion from tropical forest was the main reason for the decrease of TESVs in South America, Africa and Asia. Beyond that, the effect of wetland to cropland was notable in TESVs reduction in North America and Europe. Grassland converted to cropland played an important role in the diminution of TESVs in Oceania, Africa and Asia. In Europe, the force of urban expansion cannot be ignored as well. The conversion of cropland to tropical or temperate forest partly compensated for the loss of TESVs globally, especially in Asia.

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

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[12]
Dupras J, Alam M, 2014. Urban sprawl and ecosystem services: A half century perspective in the Montreal area (Quebec, Canada).Journal of Environmental Policy & Planning, 17(2): 180-200.http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/1523908X.2014.927755Urban sprawl is central to the issues surrounding sustainable urban development. It generally leads to multiple impacts on land-use change, including loss of sensitive natural areas, farmland and fragmentation of ecosystems, which negatively impact the production of a wide range of ecosystem services (ES). In this study, we evaluate the value of ES provided by forests, croplands, grasslands and wetlands. Four spatial analyses of the Montreal Metropolitan Region (Quebec, Canada) are used over a period of 45 years at 15 year intervals (1966, 1981, 1994 and 2010). We demonstrate that despite a variety of management strategies, urban sprawl continues to have negative impacts on ES economic value over time.

DOI

[13]
European Space Agency (ESA), 2017. Land cover CCI product user guide version 2.0. .

[14]
FAOSTAT, Statistics Division (ESS), Environment Statistics Team, FAO, 2017. .

[15]
Fu B L, Li Y, Wang Y Qet al., 2016. Evaluation of ecosystem service value of riparian zone using land use data from 1986 to 2012.Ecological Indicators, 69: 873-881.http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1470160X16302965Riparian zones play a significant role in ecological and biological sciences, as well as in environmental management and engineering perspectives because of their multiple functions in coupled natural and human systems. Quantitative evaluation of ecosystem service value (ESV) is essential to maintain the ecological functions that riparian areas provide. This manuscript addressed the overlap and connections among anthropogenic impacts (land use) with evaluations of societal benefits through ESV to an environmentally sensitive riparian zone in Northeast China using remote sensing observations and socio-economic data. The reported study evaluated the trend of ESV change in the riparian zone from 1986 to 2012. The procedures included (1) assignment of equivalent weight factors per unit hectare of terrestrial ecosystem services in the riparian zone; (2) calculation of ESV coefficients per unit area; (3) estimation of the total ESV in the riparian zone and exploration of the trend of the riparian ESVs from 1986 to 2012. The results were that the total ESV in the study area increased from $42.30 million (USD) in 1986 to $119.17 million (USD) in 2012. An average ESV of individual basic evaluation units increased from $0.08 million (USD) in 1986 to $0.3 million (USD) in 2012.

DOI

[16]
Gibbs H, Ruesch A, Achard Fet al., 2010. Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 107(38): 16732-16737.http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.0910275107Global demand for agricultural products such as food, feed, and fuel is now a major driver of cropland and pasture expansion across much of the developing world. Whether these new agricultural lands replace forests, degraded forests, or grasslands greatly influences the environmental consequences of expansion. Although the general pattern is known, there still is no definitive quantification of these land-cover changes. Here we analyze the rich, pan-tropical database of classified Landsat scenes created by the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations to examine pathways of agricultural expansion across the major tropical forest regions in the 1980s and 1990s and use this information to highlight the future land conversions that probably will be needed to meet mounting demand for agricultural products. Across the tropics, we find that between 1980 and 2000 more than 55% of new agricultural land came at the expense of intact forests, and another 28% came from disturbed forests. This study underscores the potential consequences of unabated agricultural expansion for forest conservation and carbon emissions.

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[17]
Iizumi T, Ramankutty N, 2015. How do weather and climate influence cropping area and intensity?Global Food Security, 4: 46-50.https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S221191241400058361Climate affects all components of crop production (area, intensity and yield).61Yet, most studies to date have focussed on estimating climate impacts on yields.61We review the literature on the climatic impacts on cropping area and intensity.61We outline major knowledge gaps and discuss future research needs.

DOI

[18]
Johansson E L, Fader M, Seaquist J Wet al., 2016. Green and blue water demand from large-scale land acquisitions in Africa. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 113(41): 11471-11476.http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1524741113In the last decade, more than 22 million ha of land have been contracted to large-scale land acquisitions in Africa, leading to increased pressures, competition, and conflicts over freshwater resources. Currently, 3% of contracted land is in production, for which we model site-specific water demands to indicate where freshwater appropriation might pose high socioenvironmental challenges. We use the dynamic global vegetation model Lund–Potsdam–Jena managed Land to simulate green (precipitation stored in soils and consumed by plants through evapotranspiration) and blue (extracted from rivers, lakes, aquifers, and dams) water demand and crop yields for seven irrigation scenarios, and compare these data with two baseline scenarios of staple crops representing previous water demand. We find that most land acquisitions are planted with crops that demand large volumes of water (>9,000 m366ha611) like sugarcane, jatropha, and eucalyptus, and that staple crops have lower water requirements (<7,000 m366ha611). Blue water demand varies with irrigation system, crop choice, and climate. Even if the most efficient irrigation systems were implemented, 18% of the land acquisitions, totaling 91,000 ha, would still require more than 50% of water from blue water sources. These hotspots indicate areas at risk for transgressing regional constraints for freshwater use as a result of overconsumption of blue water, where socioenvironmental systems might face increased conflicts and tensions over water resources.

DOI PMID

[19]
Johnston R J, Rosenberger R S, 2010. Methods, trends and controversies in contemporary benefit transfer.Journal of Economic Surveys, 24(3): 479-510.http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1467-6419.2009.00592.x/fullAbstract. Benefit transfer uses research results from pre-existing primary research to predict welfare estimates for other sites of policy significance for which primary valuation estimates are unavailable. Despite the sizable literature and the ubiquity of benefit transfer in policy analysis, the method remains subject to controversy. There is also a divergence between transfer practices recommended by the scholarly literature and those commonly applied within policy analysis. The size, complexity and relative disorganization of the literature may represent an obstacle to the use of updated methods by practitioners. Recognizing the importance of benefit transfer for policymaking and the breadth of associated scholarly work, this paper reviews and synthesizes the benefit transfer literature. It highlights methods, trends and controversies in contemporary research, identifies issues and challenges facing benefit transfer practitioners and summarizes research contributions. Several areas of future research on benefit transfers naturally emerge.

DOI

[20]
Kubiszewski I., Costanza R,Anderson S et a.., 2017. The future value of ecosystem services: Global scenarios and national implications.Ecosystem Services, 26: 289-301.https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2212041617300827We estimated the future value of ecosystem services in monetary units for 4 alternative global land use and management scenarios based on the Great Transition Initiative (GTI) scenarios to the year 2050. We used previous estimates of the per biome values of ecosystem services in 2011 as the basis for comparison. We mapped projected land-use for 1602biomes at 102km 2 resolution globally for each scenario. This, combined with differences in land management for each scenario, created estimates of global ecosystem services values that also allowed for examinations of individual countries. Results show that under different scenarios the global value of ecosystem services can decline by $5102trillion/yr or increase by USD $3002trillion/yr. In addition to the global values, we report totals for all countries and maps for a few example countries. Results show that adopting a set of policies similar to those required to achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goals, would greatly enhance ecosystem services, human wellbeing and sustainability.

DOI

[21]
Lambin E F, Meyfroidt P, 2011. Global land use change, economic globalization, and the looming land scarcity.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 108(9): 3465-3472.http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1100480108

DOI

[22]
Laurance W F, Sayer J, Cassman K G, 2014. Agricultural expansion and its impacts on tropical nature.Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 29(2): 107-116.http://www.cabdirect.org/abstracts/20143096922.htmlThe human population is projected to reach 11 billion this century, with the greatest increases in tropical developing nations. This growth, in concert with rising per-capita consumption, will require large increases in food and biofuel production. How will these megatrends affect tropical terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and biodiversity? We foresee (i) major expansion and intensification of tropical agriculture, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa and South America; (ii) continuing rapid loss and alteration of tropical old-growth forests, woodlands, and semi-arid environments; (iii) a pivotal role for new roadways in determining the spatial extent of agriculture; and (iv) intensified conflicts between food production and nature conservation. Key priorities are to improve technologies and policies that promote more ecologically efficient food production while optimizing the allocation of lands to conservation and agriculture.

DOI PMID

[23]
Li G D, Fang C L, 2014. Global mapping and estimation of ecosystem services values and gross domestic product: A spatially explicit integration of national ‘green GDP’ accounting. Ecological Indicators, 46: 293-314.https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1470160X14002222

DOI

[24]
Lu X, Shi Y Y, Chen C Let al., 2017. Monitoring cropland transition and its impact on ecosystem services value in developed regions of China: A case study of Jiangsu Province.Land Use Policy, 69: 25-40.https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0264837717306567

DOI

[25]
Mann M L, Kaufmann R K, Bauer D Met al., 2012. Ecosystem service value and agricultural conversion in the Amazon: Implications for policy intervention.Environmental and Resource Economics, 53(2): 279-295.http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10640-012-9562-6AbstractWe explore the welfare implications of agricultural expansion in the Brazilian Amazon by comparing spatially explicit estimates of soybean rents and the value of ecosystem services. Although these estimates are generated from different datasets, models, and estimation techniques, the values are comparable, such that the value of ecosystem services is greater than soybean rents for about 61% of the total area and 24% of the area where soybean rents are positive if protected areas are well enforced. Based on the balance between the benefits and costs of conversion, failure to value ecosystem services reduces total social welfare by 7.13 billion dollars annually relative to an optimum. Policy instruments that internalize the value of ecosystem services via protected lands, land conversion taxes, conservation subsidies, or excise taxes can avoid much of this loss. Regardless of intervention regime, policy makers should be cognizant of the diminishing net benefits of converting natural ecosystems to agriculture. Realizing the final 3.8% requires the conversion of an additional 15% natural ecosystems to soybean production.

DOI

[26]
Niquisse S, Cabral P, 2017. Assessment of changes in ecosystem service monetary values in Mozambique.Environmental Development. doi: 10.1016/j.envdev.2017.09.003.

[27]
Piao S L, Ciais P, Huang Yet al., 2010. The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China. Nature, 467(7311): 43-51.http://www.nature.com/articles/nature09364Abstract China is the world's most populous country and a major emitter of greenhouse gases. Consequently, much research has focused on China's influence on climate change but somewhat less has been written about the impact of climate change on China. China experienced explosive economic growth in recent decades, but with only 7% of the world's arable land available to feed 22% of the world's population, China's economy may be vulnerable to climate change itself. We find, however, that notwithstanding the clear warming that has occurred in China in recent decades, current understanding does not allow a clear assessment of the impact of anthropogenic climate change on China's water resources and agriculture and therefore China's ability to feed its people. To reach a more definitive conclusion, future work must improve regional climate simulations-especially of precipitation-and develop a better understanding of the managed and unmanaged responses of crops to changes in climate, diseases, pests and atmospheric constituents.

DOI PMID

[28]
Pinke Z, Kiss M, Lövei G L, 2018. Developing an integrated land use planning system on reclaimed wetlands of the Hungarian Plain using economic valuation of ecosystem services.Ecosystem Services, 30: 299-308.https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2212041617302693

DOI

[29]
Quintas-Soriano C, Martín-López B, Santos-Martín Fet al., 2016. Ecosystem services values in Spain: A meta-analysis.Environmental Science & Policy, 55(2): 186-195.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901115300848We analyzed the state of the art in research on the economic valuation of ecosystem services in Spain. A review of 150 publications was conducted and included 649 economic value estimates. The results showed an increase in the number of scientific studies on the economic valuation of ecosystem services and a dissimilar distribution across regions. Cultural ecosystem services received the most attention, and coastal systems and forested areas were the most studied ecosystem types. We found differences in the economic value estimates among categories of services and among economic valuation methods, with provisioning services and market-based methods as those that elicited the highest economic values, respectively. Our results provide an overview of past and current economic valuation studies in Spain. In addition the results depict patterns that help in understanding the effects of different factors on economic value estimates and in providing insights for future research on ecosystem services assessment in Spain. We conclude that although economic assessments remain important in scientific and policy forums, we should also recognize additional approaches that are able to incorporate the plurality of values attached to ecosystem services.

DOI

[30]
Schoneveld G C, 2014. The geographic and sectoral patterns of large-scale farmland investments in sub-Saharan Africa.Food Policy, 48(1): 34-50.https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0306919214000475Following the food and energy price crises of the mid 2000s, sub-Saharan Africa has become one of the largest recipients for large-scale farmland investments. While much has been written on the phenomenon, scant reliable empirical evidence is available as to the precise geographic and sectoral patterns and underlying drivers. Employing strict data quality requirements, this paper addresses these knowledge gaps by analyzing 563 farmland projects that have been established between 2005 and 2013 in sub-Saharan Africa. Findings show that the investment intensity and associated risks are not geographically uniform. Moreover, the study highlights a number of popular misconceptions regarding investor origin and their sectoral interests and motives.

DOI

[31]
Schoneveld G C, 2017. Host country governance and the African land rush: 7 reasons why large-scale farmland investments fail to contribute to sustainable development.Geoforum, 83: 119-132.https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0016718516301671The large social and environmental footprint of rising investor demand for Africa farmland has in recent years become a much-examined area of enquiry. This has produced a rich body of literature that has generated valuable insights into the underlying drivers, trends, social and environmental impacts, discursive implications, and global governance options. Host country governance dynamics have in contrast remained an unexplored theme, despite its central role in facilitating and legitimizing unsustainable farmland investments. This article contributes to this research gap by synthesizing results and lessons from 38 case studies conducted in Ethiopia, Ghana, Nigeria, and Zambia. It shows how and why large-scale farmland investments are often synonymous with displacement, dispossession, and environmental degradation and, thereby, highlights seven outcome determinants that merit more explicit treatment in academic and policy discourse.

DOI

[32]
Sheng W P, Zhen L, Xie G Det al., 2017. Determining eco-compensation standards based on the ecosystem services value of the mountain ecological forests in Beijing, China.Ecosystem Services, 26: 422-430.https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2212041617302917Ecological forests play a key role in the maintenance of urban ecological security in Beijing, and 91% of these ecosystems are located in mountain areas. To better address the issues that are related to ecological conservation and the environmental, eco-compensation programs that target mountain ecological forests have been implemented by the local government since 2004. However, these eco-compensation programs that are currently conducted in Beijing now are still confronted with issues regarding payment standards. In this study, three eco-compensation standards for the mountain ecological forests in Beijing are presented based on the ecosystem services value and location diversity indicators that include major function oriented zoning, population density, and ecological importance and ecological fragility. The average payment in Beijing varies from 1607 RMB/ha/a to 2051 RMB/ha/a and is approximately from 0.7 to 1.2 times higher than the current standard. The increase from the current payment standard to the recommended ones is consistent with recent social and economic development in Beijing. The recommended eco-compensation standards also reflect the relative importance of forest ecosystem services that consider geographical location. These recommended standards also have the potential for use in the establishment of differentiated compensation standards based on the different protection results of mountain ecological forests. This study will help policy and decision makers to design eco-compensation initiatives with a high success rate and contribute to the conservation and sustainability of the forest resources in Beijing.

DOI

[33]
Shi X L, Wang W, Shi W J, 2016. Progress on quantitative assessment of the impacts of climate change and human activities on cropland change.Journal of Geographical Sciences, 26(3): 339-354.http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11442-016-1272-5It is important to study the contributions of climate change and human activities to cropland changes in the fields of both climate change and land use change. Relationships between cropland changes and driving forces were qualitatively studied in most of the previous researches. However, the quantitative assessments of the contributions of climate change and human activities to cropland changes are needed to be explored for a better understanding of the dynamics of land use changes. We systematically reviewed the methods of identifying the contributions of climate change and human activities to cropland changes at quantitative aspects, including model analysis, mathematical statistical method, framework analysis, index assessment and difference comparison. Progress of the previous researches on quantitative evaluation of the contributions was introduced. Then we discussed four defects in the assessment of the contributions of climate change and human activities. For example, the methods were lack of comprehensiveness, and the data need to be more accurate and abundant. In addition, the scale was single and the explanations were biased. Moreover, we concluded a clue about quantitative approach to assess the contributions from synthetically aspect to specific driving forces. Finally, the solutions of the future researches on data, scale and explanation were proposed.

DOI

[34]
Smaliychuk A, Müller D, Prishchepov A Vet al., 2016. Recultivation of abandoned agricultural lands in Ukraine: Patterns and drivers.Global Environmental Change, 38: 70-81.https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0959378016300206

DOI

[35]
Song W, Deng X Z, 2017. Land-use/land-cover change and ecosystem service provision in China.Science of the Total Environment, 576: 705-719.https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S004896971631524861We examined the land-use/land-cover changes (LUCCs) in China from 2000 to 2008.61We assessed the responses of ecosystem service values (ESVs) to LUCC in China.61ESVs decreased by 0.45% and 0.10% during 1988–2000 and 2000–2008, respectively.61Converting 1% of land led to ESV changes of 0.15% and 0.10% in these two periods.61Decreases in ESVs in China were more modest than the global average.

DOI PMID

[36]
Song W, Pijanowski B C, Tayyebi A, 2015. Urban expansion and its consumption of high-quality farmland in Beijing, China.Ecological Indicators, 54: 60-70.https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1470160X15000928China faces the challenge of using limited farmland to feed more than 1.3 billion people. Accelerated urbanization has exacerbated this challenge by consuming a large quantity of high-quality farmland (HQF). It is therefore essential to assess the degree to which urban expansion has preferentially consumed HQF, and discern the mechanism behind this. We found urban areas in Beijing to expand at speeds of 48.97km2/year, 21.89km2/year, 62.30km2/year and 20.32km2/year during the periods 1986–1995, 1995–2000, 2000–2005 and 2005–2020, respectively. We developed an indicator of HQF consumption due to urban expansion, representing the ratio of HQF consumed to its proportion of overall farmland, and found its values were 2.21, 1.57, 1.99 and 1.10 for 1986–1995, 1995–2000, 2000–2005 and 2005–2020, respectively. Thus, although HQF has been overrepresented in the farmland consumed by Beijing's urbanization, this phenomenon has decreased over time. Centralized expansion has contributed greatly to consumption of HQF. Topography and distances to urban and water bodies determine the relative consumption of HQF in urbanization.

DOI

[37]
Song X P, 2018. Global estimates of ecosystem service value and change: Taking into account uncertainties in satellite-based land cover data.Ecological Economics, 143: 227-235.https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S092180091631309XGlobal estimates of ecosystem service value (ESV) and change are often produced using satellite-based land cover maps. However, uncertainties in global land cover data and their impacts on ESV estimation have not been fully recognized. Considerably inflated estimates of land cover change and ESV change could be derived using a direct map comparison approach when classification uncertainties are not explicitly taken into account. This study collected all available global land cover datasets and applied an ensemble approach to derive the range and central tendency of terrestrial ESV estimates. Different input data caused ESV estimate varying between 35.0 and 56.502trillion02Int$/year. Wetland classes, albeit having the highest per unit value, were the most uncertain classes mapped using satellite data. To reduce uncertainty, a spatial data harmonization procedure was developed, which resulted in an improved ESV estimate at 49.402trillion02Int$/year. The study further illustrated the quantification of changes in forest ESV using a high-resolution global forest cover change dataset. An ESV loss of 716.002billion02Int$/year was estimated between 2000 and 2012—a result representing one fifth of previous estimates. These findings highlighted the importance of improving the characterization and monitoring of land cover for global ESV and change estimation.

DOI

[38]
Swinnen J, Burkitbayeva S, Schierhorn Fet al., 2017. Production potential in the “bread baskets” of Eastern Europe and Central Asia.Global Food Security, 14: 38-53.https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2211912416300736Eastern Europe and Central Asia is a major food producer and exporter. Almost a quarter of world wheat exports come from the region, and especially from Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine (RUK). The potential of these countries to become a “bread basket” for the world has been emphasized because of already large production and exports and their “immense land and yield reserves”, referring to the abandonment of more than 50 million hectares of cropland and the large drop in crop productivity in the 1990s. However, there is considerable uncertainty about the potential of this land for food production. In this paper we review interdisciplinary literature and empirical evidence, predictions of production potential and impacts of climate change; and discuss the potential of the region to become a reliable breadbasket of the world. From a biophysical (crop growth) perspective, under different scenarios of increased yields, land use and climate change effects, RUK could produce an additional 40–110 million tons of wheat compared to current production, which would be a substantial additional production. However economic incentives, in particular the evolution of food prices and competition from other crops, are likely to significantly constrain these potentials. In addition, the introduction of export restrictions during recent times of high prices raised concerns on the reliability of RUK as exporters.

DOI

[39]
Tan M H, Li X B, Xie Het al., 2005. Urban land expansion and arable land loss in China: A case study of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.Land Use Policy, 22(3): 187-196.https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0264837704000377With significant economic development in the last decade in China, urban land has increasingly expanded and encroached upon arable land in the last decade. Although many papers have analyzed the characteristics of urban land expansion, relatively less attention has been paid to examining the different expansion features of different-tier cities at a regional level. This paper analyzes the spatio-temporal differences of urban land expansion and arable land loss among different-tier cities of the BTH (Beijing ianjin ebei) region in China in the 1990s, and identifies social, economic, political and spatial factors that led to these differences. Based on urban land change data determined by interpreting Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery, it was found that the urban land area in the BTH region expanded by 71% between 1990 and 2000. Different-tier cites, however, had enormous differences in urban development, such as speed of urban land expansion, speed of urban land per capita growth, and so on. These differences were closely related to rapid economic development, strict household registration systems, urban development guidelines ( chengshi fazhan fangzhen), and national land use policies. Of all the new urban land, about 74% was converted from arable land, and there was a general tendency for smaller cities to have higher percentages. One of the important reasons for this result is that urban land is highly correlated with arable land in spatial distribution.

DOI

[40]
Tilman D, Cassman K G, Matson P Aet al., 2002. Agricultural sustainability and intensive production practices.Nature, 418: 671-677.http://www.nature.com/articles/nature01014Focuses on the scientific and policy challenges that must be met to sustain and increase the net societal benefits of intensive agricultural production. Environmental impact of agricultural practices; Information on ecosystem services; Ways to minimize costs and at the same time increase food production; Ways to increase nutrient-use efficiency.

DOI PMID

[41]
Tscharntke T, Clough Y, Wanger T Cet al., 2012. Global food security, biodiversity conservation and the future of agricultural intensification.Biological Conservation, 151(1): 53-59.https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0006320712000821Under the current scenario of rapid human population increase, achieving efficient and productive agricultural land use while conserving biodiversity is a global challenge. There is an ongoing debate whether land for nature and for production should be segregated (land sparing) or integrated on the same land (land sharing, wildlife-friendly farming). While recent studies argue for agricultural intensification in a land sparing approach, we suggest here that it fails to account for real-world complexity. We argue that agriculture practiced under smallholder farmer-dominated landscapes and not large-scale farming, is currently the backbone of global food security in the developing world. Furthermore, contemporary food usage is inefficient with one third wasted and a further third used inefficiently to feed livestock and that conventional intensification causes often overlooked environmental costs. A major argument for wildlife friendly farming and agroecological intensification is that crucial ecosystem services are provided by “planned” and “associated” biodiversity, whereas the land sparing concept implies that biodiversity in agroecosystems is functionally negligible. However, loss of biological control can result in dramatic increases of pest densities, pollinator services affect a third of global human food supply, and inappropriate agricultural management can lead to environmental degradation. Hence, the true value of functional biodiversity on the farm is often inadequately acknowledged or understood, while conventional intensification tends to disrupt beneficial functions of biodiversity. In conclusion, linking agricultural intensification with biodiversity conservation and hunger reduction requires well-informed regional and targeted solutions, something which the land sparing vs sharing debate has failed to achieve so far.

DOI

[42]
United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2017. World Urbanization Prospects: The 2017 Revision, DVD Edition.

[43]
Varis O, Kummu M, 2012. The major Central Asian river basins: An assessment of vulnerability.International Journal of Water Resources Development, 28(3): 433-452.http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/07900627.2012.684309Central Asia's hydrological systems and environment have undergone incomparable changes during recent decades. By using various geospatial and national databases, the socio-economic-environmental vulnerability of the region's major river basins with regard to stress factors related to governance, economy, social issues, environment, hazards, and water scarcity was assessed. A vulnerability profile for each basin was produced and compared with those of the Asia-Pacific's 10 major river basins. Each of the factors appeared quite important for the overall vulnerability. It is thus crucial to focus attention holistically on all the analyzed sectors when trying to solve the challenges in Central Asian waters.

DOI

[44]
Vliet J V, Eitelberg D A, Verburg P H, 2017. A global analysis of land take in cropland areas and production displacement from urbanization.Global Environmental Change, 43: 107-115.https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S095937801730136XUrban growth has received little attention in large-scale land change assessments, because the area of built-up land is relatively small on a global scale. However, this area is increasing rapidly, due to population growth, rural-to-urban migration, and wealth increases in many parts of the world. Moreover, the impacts of urban growth on other land uses further amplified by associated land uses, such as recreation and urban green. In this study we analyze urban land take in cropland areas for the years 2000 and 2040, using a land systems approach. As of the year 2000, 213Mha can be classified as urban land, which is 2.06% of the earth surface. However, this urban land is more than proportionally located on land that is suitable and available for crop production. In the year 2040, these figures increase to 621Mha, or 4.72% of all the earth surface. The increase in urban land between 2000 and 2040 is also more than proportionally located on land that is suitable and available for crop production, thus further limiting our food production capacity. The share of urban land take in cropland areas is highest in Europe, the Middle-East and Northern Africa, and China, while it is relatively low in Oceania and Sub-Saharan Africa. Between 2000 and 2040, urban growth caused the displacement of almost 65Mton of crop production, which could yield an expansion of up to 35Mha of new cropland. Land-use planning can influence both the location and the form of urbanization, and thus appears as an important measure to minimize further losses in crop production.

DOI

[45]
Weinzettel J, Hertwich E G, Peters G Pet al., 2013. Affluence drives the global displacement of land use.Global Environmental Change, 23(2): 433-438.https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0959378012001501

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[46]
Xie G D, Lu C X, Leng Y Fet al., 2003. Ecological assets valuation of the Tibetan Plateau. Journal of Natural Resources, 18: 189-196. (in Chinese)http://en.cnki.com.cn/Article_en/CJFDTOTAL-ZRZX200302010.htmBased on a series of1∶1000000maps of natural resources of China,6categories of ecological assets were divided,which included forest,grassland,farmland,wetland,water body and desert.By means of GIS,the1∶4000000Ecological Assets Map of Tibetan Plateau was compiled and the relative data were calculated.According to partial global ecosystem services value evaluation results obtained by Costanza et al.(1997)along with responses of ecological questionnaire s from specialists of China,this paper established the ecosystem services value unit area of Chinese terrestrial ecosystems.We used the ecological assets value table as a basis and also adjusted price value by biomass and then,the ecological assets value of the Tibetan Plateau was estimated.The results indicated that ecosystem services value of Tibetan Plateau is some 9363.9×10 8 yuan annually,accounting for17.68%of annual ecosystem services value of China and0.61%of the world.The value of soil formation and disposition provided by ecosys-tem s is the highest,which occupies19.3%of the total ecosystem services value and then,the value of waste treatment takes up16.8%,water conservation value,16.5%and biodiversity,16%.The forest and the grassland ecosystem s offered the main ecosystem services value,being31.3%and48.3%of the total value provided by different ecosystem types,respectively.

[47]
Xie G D, Zhang C X, Zhen Let al., 2017. Dynamic changes in the value of China’s ecosystem services.Ecosystem Services, 26: 146-154.https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2212041616301188

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[48]
Zhang W L, Xu A G, Ji H Jet al., 2004. Estimation of agricultural non-point source pollution in China and the alleviating strategies III. A review of policies and practices for agricultural non-point source pollution control in China.Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 43(9): 1965-1970. (in Chinese)

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