Journal of Geographical Sciences >
Sensitivity of arid/humid patterns in China to future climate change under a high-emissions scenario
Author: Ma Danyang (1990-), PhD, E-mail: mady.13s@igsnrr.ac.cn
Received date: 2018-07-20
Accepted date: 2018-09-10
Online published: 2019-01-25
Supported by
National Key Research and Development Program of China, No.2017YFC1502904
National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41530749, No.41571043
Copyright
Changes in regional moisture patterns under the impact of climate change are an important focus for science. Based on the five global climate models (GCMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), this paper projects trends in the area of arid/humid climate regions of China over the next 100 years. It also identifies the regions of arid/humid patterns change and analyzes their temperature sensitivity of responses. Results show that future change will be characterized by a significant contraction in the humid region and an expansion of arid/humid transition zones. In particular, the sub-humid region will expand by 28.69% in the long term (2070-2099) relative to the baseline period (1981-2010). Under 2°C and 4°C warming, the area of the arid/humid transition zones is projected to increase from 10.17% to 13.72% of the total of China. The humid region south of the Huaihe River Basin, which is affected mainly by a future increase in evapotranspiration, will retreat southward and change to a sub-humid region. In general, the sensitivity of responses of arid/humid patterns to climate change in China will intensify with accelerating global warming.
Key words: arid/humid patterns; climate change; sensitivity; aridity index; China
MA Danyang , DENG Haoyu , YIN Yunhe , WU Shaohong , ZHENG Du . Sensitivity of arid/humid patterns in China to future climate change under a high-emissions scenario[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019 , 29(1) : 29 -48 . DOI: 10.1007/s11442-019-1582-5
Figure 1 Distribution of 581 meteorological stations and arid/humid climate regions across China for the period 1981-2010 |
Table 1 Global climate models used in this study |
Model name | Original resolution (latitude × longitude) | Modeling center | Country |
---|---|---|---|
NorESM1-M | 1.875° × 2.5° | Norwegian Climate Centre | Norway |
MIROC-ESM-CHEM | 2.8°×2.8° | Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute (The University of Tokyo), National Institute for Environmental Studies, and Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology | Japan |
IPSL-CM5A-LR | 1.875°×3.75° | Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace | France |
HadGEM2-ES | 1.25°×1.875° | Met Office Hadley Centre | UK |
GFDL-ESM2M | 2.0°×2.5° | Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory | USA |
Table 2 Criteria for demarcating the arid/humid climate regions of China according to aridity index (AI) |
Arid/humid climate region | Aridity index (AI = ETo/P) | Natural vegetation type |
---|---|---|
Humid | AI < 1.0 | Forest |
Sub-humid | 1.0 ≤ AI < 1.5 | Forest steppe (including meadow) |
Semi-arid | 1.5 ≤ AI < 4.0 | Steppe (meadow steppe, and desert steppe) |
Arid | AI ≥ 4.0 | Desert |
Figure 2 Percentage deviations over China in reference evapotranspiration (ETo), precipitation (P), and aridity index (AI) for 2040-2069, relative to the baseline period under the RCP8.5 scenario |
Figure 3 Percentage deviations over China in reference evapotranspiration (ETo), precipitation (P) and aridity index (AI) for 2070-2099, relative to the baseline period under RCP8.5 |
Figure 4 Area percentages (%) of (a) humid, (b) sub-humid, (c) semi-arid, and (d) arid regions in China during the 21st century, expressed as anomalies relative to the baseline period under RCP8.5. The time series were smoothed using an 11-year running mean |
Figure 5 Spatial distribution of arid/humid climate regions (AHCRs) across China during 2040-2069 and 2070-2099 under RCP8.5 |
Table 3 Percentage areas (%) of arid/humid climate regions (AHCRs) in China for the periods 2040-2069 and 2070-2099 under RCP8.5, and the amount of change (%) relative to the baseline period |
GCM | Period | Humid | Sub-humid | Semi-arid | Arid | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Area | Change | Area | Change | Area | Change | Area | Change | ||
1981-2010 | 35.76 | 13.94 | 24.61 | 25.69 | |||||
NorESM1-M | 2040-2069 | 32.78 | -8.33 | 15.27 | 9.54 | 26.65 | 8.29 | 25.29 | -1.56 |
2070-2099 | 31.47 | -12 | 16.26 | 16.64 | 26.04 | 5.81 | 26.23 | 2.1 | |
MIROC-ESM-CHEM | 2040-2069 | 32.13 | -10.15 | 16.24 | 16.5 | 27.62 | 12.23 | 24.01 | -6.54 |
2070-2099 | 32.75 | -8.42 | 17.02 | 22.09 | 26.8 | 8.9 | 23.43 | -8.8 | |
IPSL-CM5A-LR | 2040-2069 | 35.37 | -1.09 | 16.35 | 17.29 | 22.33 | -9.26 | 25.95 | 1.01 |
2070-2099 | 30.18 | -15.6 | 18.87 | 35.37 | 23.14 | -5.97 | 27.81 | 8.25 | |
HadGEM2-ES | 2040-2069 | 34.45 | -3.66 | 17.15 | 23.03 | 21.67 | -11.95 | 26.74 | 4.09 |
2070-2099 | 33.97 | -5.01 | 18.71 | 34.22 | 21.54 | -12.47 | 25.78 | 0.35 | |
GFDL-ESM2M | 2040-2069 | 34.15 | -4.5 | 17.14 | 22.96 | 26.15 | 6.26 | 22.56 | -12.18 |
2070-2099 | 30.26 | -15.38 | 20.03 | 43.69 | 26.13 | 6.18 | 23.57 | -8.25 | |
Multi-model mean | 2040-2069 | 33.64 | -5.93 | 16.21 | 16.28 | 24.95 | 1.38 | 25.19 | -1.95 |
2070-2099 | 31.25 | -12.61 | 17.94 | 28.69 | 24.98 | 1.5 | 25.83 | 0.54 |
Figure 6 Shifts in arid/humid climate regions (AHCRs) across China and the rate of change with temperature anomaly relative to the baseline period under RCP8.5. (a) Percentage area change (%). (b) Rate of percentage area change (%°C-1). Before quadratic curve fitting, data were smoothed using an 11-year running mean. The original data points are shown as dots in (a) |
Figure 7 Spatial distribution of humid, sub-humid, semi-arid, and arid regions over China for 2°C warming under RCP8.5, showing changed and unchanged areas relative to the baseline period |
Figure 8 Spatial distribution of humid, sub-humid, semi-arid, and arid regions over China for 4°C warming under RCP8.5, showing changed and unchanged areas relative to the baseline period |
Table 4 Percentage change in the areas of humid, sub-humid, semi-arid, and arid regions over China for 2°C and 4°C warming under RCP8.5, relative to the baseline period |
GCM | 2°C | 4°C | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Humid | Sub- humid | Semi- arid | Arid | Humid | Sub- humid | Semi- arid | Arid | ||
NorESM1-M | Expansion | 0.47 | 3.61 | 3.26 | 0.73 | 0.72 | 6.28 | 4.84 | 1.10 |
Contraction | 3.23 | 2.54 | 1.19 | 1.09 | 5.05 | 4.07 | 2.38 | 1.44 | |
Total changed | 8.06 | 12.93 | |||||||
MIROC-ESM-CHEM | Expansion | 0.87 | 8.05 | 4.24 | 0.13 | 1.64 | 8.33 | 4.92 | 0.54 |
Contraction | 6.61 | 2.84 | 1.68 | 2.17 | 6.15 | 4.06 | 2.64 | 2.57 | |
Total changed | 13.29 | 15.42 | |||||||
IPSL-CM5A-LR | Expansion | 1.59 | 3.75 | 2.25 | 2.55 | 3.17 | 7.00 | 2.63 | 1.61 |
Contraction | 2.50 | 2.89 | 3.85 | 0.90 | 2.95 | 3.63 | 5.74 | 2.10 | |
Total changed | 10.13 | 14.41 | |||||||
HadGEM2-ES | Expansion | 1.23 | 4.97 | 3.35 | 1.24 | 1.22 | 7.81 | 3.41 | 1.58 |
Contraction | 3.57 | 3.68 | 2.69 | 0.86 | 4.08 | 3.33 | 5.32 | 1.30 | |
Total changed | 10.79 | 14.03 | |||||||
GFDL-ESM2M | Expansion | 1.12 | 2.72 | 3.50 | 1.21 | 0.58 | 5.62 | 4.70 | 0.88 |
Contraction | 1.87 | 2.04 | 2.00 | 2.64 | 5.08 | 3.05 | 1.34 | 2.32 | |
Total changed | 8.55 | 11.78 | |||||||
Multi-model mean | Expansion | 1.06 | 4.62 | 3.32 | 1.17 | 1.47 | 7.01 | 4.10 | 1.14 |
Contraction | 3.56 | 2.80 | 2.28 | 1.53 | 4.66 | 3.63 | 3.48 | 1.94 | |
Total changed | 10.17 | 13.72 |
Figure 9 Spatial distribution of humid, sub-humid, semi-arid, and arid regions over China for 2°C and 4°C warming under RCP8.5 relative to the baseline period, showing the number of models projecting change within each region |
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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