Journal of Geographical Sciences >
An evaluation of the economic, social, and ecological risks of China-Mongolia-Russia high-speed railway construction and policy suggestions
Author: Dong Suocheng (1962-), Professor, specialized in regional ecological economics, environmental economics and green development. E-mail: dongsc@igsnrr.ac.cn
Received date: 2017-09-08
Online published: 2018-07-20
Supported by
Science and Technology Basic Resources Survey Project of China, No.2017FY101304
Major R&D Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.ZDRW-ZS-2016-6-5
National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41701639
Copyright
The construction of China-Mongolia-Russia high-speed railways is a strategic move to promote transportation infrastructure inter-connectivity between these countries, which will accelerate the implementation of the China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor. However, well-planned China-Mongolia-Russia high-speed railways demand accurately identifying construction risks, scientifically evaluating risk levels, and mapping the spatial distribution of these risks. Therefore, this study established the integrated risk evaluation model (IREM) to scientifically evaluate the economic, social, and ecological risks of China-Mongolia-Russia high-speed railway construction and determine their magnitude and spatial distribution pattern. Based on this analysis, we propose designs for the east and west China-Mongolia-Russia high-speed railways and policy suggestions to mitigate construction risks. Suggestions include developing innovative cooperation of the "high-speed railway for resources and market", strengthening communication and technology dissemination, and applying innovative engineering techniques and setting buffers; establishing collaborative prevention and control systems to mitigate the three major ecological risks in the China, Mongolia, and Russia trans-border areas; and promoting economic integration by improving strategic coordination. In summary, this study provides scientific support for designing the China-Mongolia-Russia high-speed railways minimizing construction risks.
DONG Suocheng , YANG Yang , LI Fujia , CHENG Hao , LI Jingnan , BILGAEV Alexey , LI Zehong , LI Yu . An evaluation of the economic, social, and ecological risks of China-Mongolia-Russia high-speed railway construction and policy suggestions[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2018 , 28(7) : 900 -918 . DOI: 10.1007/s11442-018-1512-y
Figure 1 Map showing the research area and locations of the proposed economic corridors |
Figure 2 Railway passenger traffic volume for research units in China along the China-Mongolia-Russia high-speed railways from 2006 to 2016 |
Table 1 Comprehensive index system for evaluating economic, social, and ecological risks from China-Mongolia-Russia high-speed railway construction and their normalized weights |
Object | Standard | Sub-standard | Index | Weight | Type |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Comprehensive economic- social- ecological risk | Economic risk | Economic development | GDP per capita | 0.0883 | Negative indices |
Growth rate of GDP | 0.0394 | ||||
Passenger capacity | Population density | 0.0743 | |||
Growth rate of population | 0.0216 | ||||
Transportation infrastructure | Railway network density | 0.0282 | |||
Attractive power | Tourism resources | 0.0120 | |||
Energy resources | 0.0120 | ||||
Mineral resources | 0.0120 | ||||
Education resources | 0.0120 | ||||
Social risk | Government and residential support | Government and residential support for high-speed railway construction | 0.1015 | ||
Social stability | Unemployment rate | 0.0985 | Positive indices | ||
Ecological risk | Disaster | Area of forest fire per 10,000 km2 | 0.1048 | ||
Number of geologic hazards | 0.1497 | ||||
Ecological destruction | Forest coverage rate | 0.0934 | |||
Number of natural reserves | 0.0751 | ||||
Biodiversity | 0.0770 |
Table 2 The magnitude of economic, social, and ecological risks from China-Mongolia-Russia high-speed railway construction |
Research units | EN | ED | PC | TI | AP | S | SGP | ST | EC | D | EDT | CESE |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mongolia | 0.2237 | 0.1002 | 0.0743 | 0.0282 | 0.0211 | 0.1662 | 0.0677 | 0.0985 | 0.3203 | 0.2545 | 0.0658 | 0.7102 |
Republic of Buryatia | 0.2498 | 0.1158 | 0.0879 | 0.0273 | 0.0187 | 0.1422 | 0.1015 | 0.0407 | 0.2191 | 0.0733 | 0.1459 | 0.6111 |
Zabaykalsky Krai | 0.2672 | 0.1255 | 0.0944 | 0.0266 | 0.0207 | 0.1586 | 0.1015 | 0.0571 | 0.1765 | 0.0507 | 0.1259 | 0.6024 |
Irkutsk Oblast | 0.2122 | 0.0744 | 0.0920 | 0.0274 | 0.0183 | 0.1184 | 0.0677 | 0.0507 | 0.1660 | 0.0213 | 0.1447 | 0.4966 |
Heilongjiang | 0.2224 | 0.0753 | 0.0913 | 0.0236 | 0.0323 | 0.0500 | 0.0000 | 0.0500 | 0.1700 | 0.0000 | 0.1700 | 0.4425 |
Inner Mongolia | 0.1738 | 0.0367 | 0.0882 | 0.0249 | 0.0241 | 0.0371 | 0.0000 | 0.0371 | 0.1390 | 0.0171 | 0.1219 | 0.3499 |
Hebei | 0.1907 | 0.0712 | 0.0644 | 0.0152 | 0.0399 | 0.0355 | 0.0000 | 0.0355 | 0.0746 | 0.0171 | 0.0576 | 0.3009 |
Beijing | 0.0467 | 0.0023 | 0.0097 | 0.0000 | 0.0347 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.1144 | 0.0748 | 0.0396 | 0.1611 |
Table 3 Categories of economic, social, ecological, and comprehensive risks from China-Mongolia-Russia high-speed railway construction |
Risk category | Economic risk | Social risk | Ecological risk | Comprehensive risk |
---|---|---|---|---|
Low risk | [0.0467, 0.1202] | [0, 0.0554] | [0.0746, 0.1565] | [0.1611, 0.3442] |
Medium risk | (0.1202, 0.1937] | (0.0554, 0.1108] | (0.1565, 0.2384] | (0.3442, 0.5272) |
High risk | (0.1937, 0.2672] | (0.1108, 0.1662] | (0.2384, 0.3203] | (0.5272, 0.7102] |
Figure 3 Map of the research area showing the spatial distribution of construction risks arising from the China-Mongolia-Russia high-speed railways |
Figure 4 Map showing the proposed east and west China-Mongolia-Russia high-speed railway routes |
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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