Journal of Geographical Sciences >
Analysis of the coupled relationship between grain
yields and agricultural labor changes in China
Author: Ge Dazhuan (1987-), PhD Candidate, specialized in agricultural transition. E-mail: gedz.15b@igsnrr.ac.cn
Received date: 2017-03-28
Accepted date: 2017-04-25
Online published: 2018-01-10
Supported by
Key Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41731286
The National Key Technology R&D Program of China, No.2014BAL01B05
Copyright
In this paper we establish a model that expresses the coupled relationship between grain yield and agricultural labor changes in China, and present a preliminary discussion of the coupled processes involved in changes in these factors at the county level. Thus, we develop two coefficients on the basis of county-level statistical data for grain yield and agricultural labor for the years 1991, 2000, and 2010, namely, the grain-labor elasticity coefficient (GLEC) and the agricultural labor-transfer effect coefficient (ALTEC). The results of this study show that during the transformation process of agricultural development in China, different kinds of coupled relationships between grain yield and agricultural labor changes co-existed at the same time. For example, between 1991 and 2010, counties characterized by three different coupled modes (i.e., increasing grain yield and decreasing agricultural labor, increasing grain yield and agricultural labor, and decreasing grain yield and agricultural labor) account for 48.85%, 29.11%, and 19.74% of the total across the study area, respectively. Interestingly, a coupled relationship between increasing grain yield and decreasing agricultural labor is mainly concentrated in the traditional farming areas of China, while a coupled relationship between increasing grain yield and agricultural labor is primarily concentrated in pastoral areas and agro-pastoral ecotones in underdeveloped western China. At the same time, a coupled relationship between decreasing grain yield and agricultural labor is concentrated in areas that have experienced a rapid development transition in agriculture, especially the developed southeastern coast of China. The results of this study also show that between 1991 and 2010, 1961 counties experienced a decline in the proportion of agricultural labor; of these, 1452 are also characterized by increasing grain yield, 72.38% of the total. This coupled relationship between grain yield and changes in the proportion of agricultural labor shows a stepped fluctuation and has continually strengthened over time. Data show that mean values for the GLEC and ALTEC increased from -0.25 and -2.93 between 1991 and 2000 to -0.16 and -1.78 between 2000 and 2010, respectively. These changes in GLEC and ALTEC illustrate that the influence of agricultural labor changes on increasing grain yields has gradually diminished. Finally, the results of this study reveal that the ‘Hu Huanyong Line’ is a significant boundary sub-dividing this coupled relationship between grain yield and changes in agricultural labor.
GE Dazhuan
,
LONG Hualou
,
ZHANG Yingnan
,
TU Shuangshuang
. Analysis of the coupled relationship between grain
yields and agricultural labor changes in China[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2018
, 28(1)
: 93
-108
.
DOI: 10.1007/s11442-018-1461-5
Figure 1 Conceptual models illustrating the coupled relationship between grain yields and changes in agricultural labor. Coupled models in agricultural labor increasing zones (a), traditional agricultural zones (b), rapid agricultural transformation zones (c). |
Figure 2 Conceptual model illustrating the coupled relationship between grain yields and changes in the proportion of agricultural labor at the county level |
Figure 3 Maps showing the spatio-temporal pattern in the coupled relationship between grain yields and agricultural labor at the county level over the period between 1991 and 2010 |
Figure 4 Maps showing spatio-temporal patterns of GLEC at the county level between 1991 and 2010 |
Figure 5 Maps showing spatio-temporal patterns in the coupled relationship between grain yields and agricultural labor proportions at the county level between 1991 and 2010 |
Figure 6 Number of counties and grain yield proportions given differences in agricultural labor at the county level across China |
Table 1 Classification statistics illustrating the ALTEC at the county level between 1991 and 2010 |
ALTEC | 1991 to 2000 (%) | 2000 to 2010 (%) | |
---|---|---|---|
ALPR < 0 | ALTEC ≥ 0 | 25.98 (521) | 31.16 (625) |
ALTEC < 0 | 65.2 (1,308) | 62.87 (1,261) | |
ALPR > 0 | ALTEC ≥ 0 | 5.88 (118) | 3.54 (75) |
ALTEC < 0 | 2.94 (59) | 2.24 (45) |
Note: Numbers in parentheses indicate the number of counties that belong to each coupled type |
Figure 7 Maps showing spatio-temporal patterns in the ALTEC at the county level between 1991 and 2010 |
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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