Research Articles

A graded index for evaluating precipitation heterogeneity in China

  • LIU Yonglin , 1 ,
  • YAN Junping , 1, * ,
  • CEN Minyi 1, 2 ,
  • FANG Qunsheng 3 ,
  • LIU Zhengyao 1 ,
  • LI Yingjie 1
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  • 1. Tourism and Environment College, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710119, China
  • 2. Department of Health Geography, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710119, China
  • 3. State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610000, China

*Corresponding author: Yan Junping, PhD and Professor, specialized in natural disaster prevention and control. E-mail:

Author: Liu Yonglin (1989-), specialized in natural disaster prevention and control. E-mail:

Received date: 2015-10-08

  Accepted date: 2015-11-15

  Online published: 2016-06-15

Supported by

National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41171090

National Social Science Foundation of China, No.14AZD094, No.14XSK019

Copyright

Journal of Geographical Sciences, All Rights Reserved

Abstract

Precipitation heterogeneity has a nontrivial influence on human life. Many studies have analyzed precipitation heterogeneity but none have proposed a systematic graded index for its evaluation, and therefore, its true characteristics have not been expressed. After comparisons of various methods, the precipitation concentration degree (PCD) method was selected to study precipitation heterogeneity. In addition to the PCD, normal distribution functions, cumulative frequencies, and percentiles were used to establish a graded index for evaluating precipitation heterogeneity. A comprehensive evaluation of precipitation heterogeneity was performed, and its spatiotemporal variation in China from 1960 to 2013 was analyzed. The results indicated that (1) seven categories of precipitation heterogeneity were identified (high centralization, moderate centralization, mild centralization, normal, mild dispersion, moderate dispersion, and high dispersion) and (2) during the study period, the precipitation in more parts of China tended to be normal or dispersed, which is beneficial to human activities.

Cite this article

LIU Yonglin , YAN Junping , CEN Minyi , FANG Qunsheng , LIU Zhengyao , LI Yingjie . A graded index for evaluating precipitation heterogeneity in China[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2016 , 26(6) : 673 -693 . DOI: 10.1007/s11442-016-1292-1

1 Introduction

The uneven distribution of precipitation has an important impact on agricultural production, flood control, drought relief, human life and other activities. When the precipitation is too concentrated, flooding may occur, and droughts may occur during the rest of the year. Droughts occur in areas that lack precipitation because it is too spatially concentrated. No matter which water diversion measures are taken over time or space, a significant investment is required. The more even the precipitation is, the more favorable an area is for life. For example, southern areas were growing three crops per year; the more evenly the precipitation is distributed in a year, the more suitable the region is for growing crops. If the precipitation is too concentrated in summer, the availability of sufficient water for spring and autumn crops cannot be ensured.
Tang et al. (1982b) discussed the non-uniform coefficient of the annual runoff distribution and created a contour map of the national non-uniform coefficient. Non-uniform coefficient was introduced into the study of precipitation heterogeneity and has been widely used (Feng et al., 2000; Zheng et al., 2003; Gu et al., 2010). The concept of a non-uniform coefficient has a clear and general use (Feng et al., 2000), but simple data cannot reflect the concentration of annual runoff in different periods of a year or the period that has the most runoff (Tang et al., 1982a). Tang et al. (1982a) used a vector method of determining the annual precipitation distribution as a reference and adopted vector synthesis to calculate concentration degrees and concentration periods of river runoff; this method has a higher resolution than the runoff distributive uniformity coefficient for a period of one year. Yang (1984) has improved this formula. Based on the runoff concentration degree and period (Wang et al., 2007), Zhang and Qian (2003, 2004) improved and redefined the precipitation concentration degree (PCD) and the precipitation concentration period (PCP), which were widely used (Cao et al., 2013; Li et al., 2011; Liu et al., 2013; Lu et al., 2012; Qin et al., 2010; Wang et al., 2013; Zou et al., 2013). In addition, some scholars have used a complete adjustment coefficient (Feng et al., 1994; Zheng et al., 2003), a Gini coefficient (Liu et al., 2007; Shi et al., 2012, 2013) or an apportionment entropy disorder index (Deng et al., 2014; Mishra A K et al., 2009; Singh V P, 1997; Wang et al., 2007) to study the heterogeneity of runoff and precipitation in detail.
Although the methods of studying precipitation heterogeneity are sundry and mature, a graded evaluation index has not been systematically developed. Several researchers have compared the calculated actual data and discussed the differences in heterogeneity of different areas and their spatiotemporal characteristics. A Gini coefficient can be divided into five general international sections and has some reference. However, because Gini coefficients are generally used in economics and the division of sections is primarily based on economic considerations, it obviously differs in a geographical and meteorological sense, and the four methods of estimating Gini coefficients have some disadvantages, such as being complex (Xiong, 2003), easily affected by deviations and inconvenient to use. The resolution and sensitivity of the PCD are higher (Tang et al., 1982a; Yang, 1984). Using original data in calculations avoids data distortion and allows free adjustment of the calculation’s time scale. The method of calculation is simple, effective and less affected by deviations. It is dimensionless between 0 and 1 and very comparable. Therefore, our research tries to establish a graded index for evaluating precipitation heterogeneity based on the PCD and apply it in a comprehensive evaluation of the precipitation heterogeneity in China.

2 Materials and methods

2.1 Materials

Meteorological data were obtained from the observation data for the 56-year period from 1960 to 2013 in the Chinese Daily Terrestrial Climate Dataset collected by the China Meteorological Data Sharing Service Network. To ensure the integrity of the data (i.e., no more than 30 days of continuous missing data) and a uniform distribution, we removed observation stations with comparatively more outliers and selected data from 569 national observation stations (Figure 1) for further analysis. The missing data were imputed using the expectation-maximization algorithm (EM) in SPSS 21.0.
Figure 1 Distribution of meteorological stations in China
Our study defines 30 years as a climatic stage. There are 25 climatic stages from 1960 to 2013: 1960 to 1989, 1961 to 1990, ..., and 1984 to 2013.
Using Chinese meteorological geographical divisions (Wang et al., 2009), we simplified the geographical area into basic units of provinces and divided the country into 9 meteorological regions (Table 1). Because no data from Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau were included, these regions were not included in the study.
Table 1 Division of meteorological geography in China
Large scale region Provincial administrative region
Northeast China Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang
Inner Mongolia Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region
Northwest China Shaanxi, Gansu, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, Qinghai,
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region
North China Shanxi, Hebei, Beijing, Tianjin
East China Shandong, Henan, Hubei, Anhui, Jiangsu, Shanghai
Jiangnan region Hunan, Jiangxi, Fujian, Zhejiang
Southwest China Sichuan, Chongqing, Yunnan, Guizhou
South China Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, Guangdong, Hainan, Hongkong Special
Administrative Region, Macao Special Administrative Region, Taiwan
Tibet Tibet Autonomous Region

2.2 Methods

2.2.1 The PCD and the PCP
The precipitation concentration degree (PCD) is a new parameter characterizing the precipitation time and distribution at a single station; it is calculated as follows (Zhang and Qian, 2003, 2004):
where PCDi is the precipitation concentration degree during the study period and Ri is the total amount of precipitation at a single station during the study period,where rij refers to 5-day total precipitation during the study period, θi refers to the corresponding azimuth (the azimuth for the study period was set to 360°), i refers to the year (i = 1960, 1961, ..., 2014), and j refers to the study order (j = 1, 2, ..., 72).
According to equations (1) and (2), the PCD reflects the degree of concentration of the annual precipitation concentrated on one of 5-day total precipitation. The PCD ranges from 0 to 1. A PCD closer to 1 indicates a more concentrated period of precipitation. A PCD closer to 0 indicates a more uniform distribution of precipitation (Zhang and Qian, 2004).
2.2.2 The Z-index
Because the precipitation does not follow a normal distribution in some periods, we suppose that the monthly or seasonal total precipitation follows a Γ distribution of Pearson III. Therefore, the probability density distribution is (Ju et al., 1997)
Normal processing of the precipitation, X, allows the probability density function to be changed from a Pearson Ⅲ distribution to a standard normal distribution with Z as a variable. The transformation formula is (Ju et al., 1997)
where Zi is the value of a meteorological factor after the transformation, Cs is the skewness coefficient, and φi is a criterion variable. All of these can be calculated based on the precipitation data as follows:
where and xi is the value of meteorological factor i.
2.2.3 The variation coefficient
The variation coefficient is a dimensionless number that represents the data’s degree of dispersion. It can be used to compare the dispersion degrees and stabilities of different dimensions and means. The larger Cv is, the higher the discrete degree and the data volatility are. In contrast, the smaller Cv is, the lower the discrete degree is or the more stable the data are. A value of Cv that is less than 1 represents an average variation range of estimated thresholds is less than average, and has the better and more stability. A value of Cv that is greater than 1 represents an average variation range of estimated thresholds is more than average, and less stability (Li and Huang, 2011).
where n is the number of data points in the sample, σ is the standard deviation of the sample, xi is the value of climatic element i, and is the average of the climatic elements.
2.2.4 The station coverage rate
The station coverage rate is the ratio of the number of stations in each heterogeneity grade to the number of stations in all of the areas evaluated. It is used to evaluate the range over which of each heterogeneity grade occurs.
where Fij is the coverage rate of grade i at station j, M is the number of meteorological stations in the area evaluated, m is the number of stations with heterogeneity grade i.

2.3 Research process

This study consists of two parts: a definition of a graded index for evaluating precipitation heterogeneity and a comprehensive evaluation of the precipitation heterogeneity in China. No graded index for evaluating precipitation heterogeneity has been systematically defined or approved. Therefore, the first task is to choose reasonable thresholds and define a scientific graded index for evaluating precipitation heterogeneity. Our research group thinks that the scientific evaluation index should comply with the following principles.
(1) Symmetry. Generally speaking, the frequency of each grade should be symmetric. For example, the classification of a meteorological drought based on its Z-index (Ju et al., 1997) and the frequency of each grade of drought or flood should be symmetric (Table 2).
Table 2 Graded division of drought and flood based on Z-index
Grade Types Z-index Real frequency (%) Cumulative frequency (%)
1 Severe flood Z>1.645 5 100
2 Moderate flood 1.037<Z≤1.645 10 95
3 Mild flood 0.842<Z≤1.037 15 80
4 Normal -0.842≤Z≤0.842 40 70
5 Mild drought -1.037≤Z<-0.842 15 30
6 Moderate drought -1.645≤Z<-1.037 10 15
7 Severe drought Z<-1.645 5 5
(2) Dipartition. It should be able to distinguish between different events effectively. The more severe an event is, the small the frequency should be. Taking the graded divisions of droughts and floods based on the Z-index as an example (Table 2), when the climatic environment is stable, the probability and frequency of normal years should be the highest; therefore, that frequency takes up 40% of the distribution. As the severity of a drought and flood event increases, the frequency decreases. The frequency of a severe drought or flood is 5%; the index can effectively identify an extremely serious drought or flood.
(3) Ease of operation. It should be convenient for employees; therefore, the process of dividing events into grades should not be too complex. In addition, the number of decimal places should be neither to high nor too low. The calculated PCD values show that keeping two decimal places results in a difference between two values that is too small, making it impossible to distinguish between them effectively. However, when four decimal places are kept, the calculation requires too much accuracy. On the basis of the Z-index, one of the references (Zhang et al., 2006), and comparisons of calculated values, it is more appropriate to keep three decimal places.
(4) Stability. Meteorological elements do not undergo obvious changes, but there are certain differences between different climatic stages. To eliminate the differences, the thresholds for 25 climatic stages are calculated and the average value is selected as the threshold for the grade.
(5) Comparability. It should be widely applicable and comparable in different areas.
The main purpose of our research is to define a reasonable threshold for each grade using these features and principles. These thresholds can be used to establish a graded index for evaluating precipitation heterogeneity and applied to comprehensively evaluate the heterogeneity of precipitation in China (Figure 2).
Figure 2 Comprehensive evaluation process of precipitation heterogeneity

3 Definition of the graded index for evaluating precipitation heterogeneity

3.1 Testing the normal distribution

Before defining a threshold, it is necessary to test the normal distribution of the variance. The main reasons are as follows:
(1) Random variables are generally assumed to follow normal distributions in meteorological statistics. To satisfy this condition when using this method, we should test the distribution of the variance (Huang, 2007).
(2) The probability density function of a normal distribution is symmetric around the average (μ). When a value is closer to μ, its probability is higher; when a value is farther away, its probability is lower. This feature is in accordance with the partition principles behind thresholds. A standard normal distribution is symmetric about μ=0; a negative value can be seen as less or dispersed precipitation, and a positive value can be seen as more or concentrated precipitation.
We can judge whether the PCD follows a normal distribution by observing a histogram of it and testing its skewness and kurtosis. SPSS 21.0 can be used to obtain a histogram and the skewness and kurtosis coefficients. The histograms of the PCD of different climatic stages differ little. For the climatic stage that lasts from 1960 to 1989 (Figure 3), we observe the PCD has a negatively skewed distribution.
Figure 3 Histogram of precipitation concentration degree (PCD) (1960-1989)
Assuming that the estimated variance follows a normal distribution, the coefficients of skewness and kurtosis are calculated for one sample. If the result is significant (α=0.05),
then, the hypothesis is rejected; the variance does not have a normal distribution. Otherwise, the variance has a normal distribution (Huang, 2007). The number of data points in one climatic stage is 17,070. If |g|>0.04and |g2|>0.07, then, the variance does not have a normal distribution. It can be shown using the calculated skewness and kurtosis coefficients of the PCD for each climatic stage that the variance does not have a normal distribution; its distribution is negatively skewed (Table 3).
Table 3 Skewness and kurtosis of precipitation concentration degree (PCD) in various climatic stages
Climatic stage Skewness
coefficient
Kurtosis
coefficient
Climatic
stage
Skewness
coefficient
Kurtosis
coefficient
1960-1989 -0.426 -0.282 1973-2002 -0.419 -0.284
1961-1990 -0.419 -0.301 1974-2003 -0.416 -0.281
1962-1991 -0.424 -0.264 1975-2004 -0.424 -0.246
1963-1992 -0.414 -0.267 1976-2005 -0.446 -0.218
1964-1993 -0.398 -0.294 1977-2006 -0.453 -0.222
1965-1994 -0.396 -0.318 1978-2007 -0.450 -0.206
1966-1995 -0.410 -0.292 1979-2008 -0.447 -0.196
1967-1996 -0.405 -0.268 1980-2009 -0.439 -0.224
1968-1997 -0.405 -0.285 1981-2010 -0.441 -0.228
1969-1998 -0.420 -0.292 1982-2011 -0.443 -0.204
1970-1999 -0.424 -0.259 1983-2012 -0.450 -0.193
1971-2000 -0.428 -0.253 1984-2013 -0.446 -0.213
1972-2001 -0.439 -0.254

3.2 Standard normal treatment

Because the PCD is not normally distributed in each climatic stage, we need to apply the standard normal treatment to it. The application of exponential, logarithmic, arcsine, square root arcsine and Z-index transformations still can not allow the skewness and kurtosis coefficients of the PCD in each climatic stage to pass the normal test, but the arcsine transformation has a significant effect, and the results have an approximately normal distribution. Excessive emphasis on a normal distribution may result in data that are not true to their original values; therefore, we use the results of the arcsine transformation.
For the climatic stage that lasts from 1960 to 1989 (Table 4), the original PCD sequence is denoted by Xi and the new transformed sequence is denoted by Yi. Then, the effects of different transformation methods are comprehensively compared. The arcsine transformation is the best; the skewness and kurtosis coefficients decrease significantly (α=0.01) after it is applied. The results can be seen as having a normal distribution.
Table 4 Coefficient of skewness and kurtosis of precipitation concentration degree (PCD) after normal transformation (1960-1989)
Transforationr method Square Cubic Square
root
Cube
root
Reciprocal Logarithm arcsine Square root
arcsine
Z-index
Skewness coefficient 0.24 0.81 -0.92 -1.15 87.16 -1.91 -0.07 -0.39 -0.10
Kurtosis coefficient -0.47 0.60 0.98 1.97 9640.34 8.03 -0.18 0.16 -0.40
After the arcsine transformation, the data do not have a standard normal distribution. Therefore, we take the results of the standardized treatment and denote the new sequence by Zi.

3.3 Defining the graded threshold and evaluation index

The first task in defining the evaluation index is to choose the threshold. The parameter method and a non-parametric method were used in the threshold definition process. The parameter method, which is based on extreme value theory (Dong et al., 2011; Li et al., 2013; Zhang et al., 2010), is used to calculate the marginal value of the gamma distribution function to define the threshold. The calculation is complex and involves a heavy workload due to the large amount of data. The non-parametric method, which is mainly based on percentiles (Gong and Han, 2004; Li et al., 2010; Alexander et al., 2006; Zhai and Pan, 2003; Zhang et al., 2005), is used to arrange the sample data in ascending or descending order and to define a threshold based on the correspondences between numerical values and percentiles. This method is easy to use because of its comparatively light workload, but it requires a certain level of subjective experience.
After the standard arcsine transformation, the PCD has a standard normal distribution. Whether the precipitation is too concentrated or distributed is related to the frequency of floods and droughts. Therefore, its division based on graded thresholds can be made using the cumulative frequency of the Z-index. Our technique uses a combination of the normal distribution function, the cumulative frequency and the percentile method to divide the precipitation heterogeneity into 7 grades.
The PCD for all of the meteorological stations, which has been transformed using the standard arcsine transformation (that is, Zi; the number of data points in one climatic stage is 17,070), is sorted in ascending order in the period under study. We can determine the corresponding values of Zi using the cumulative frequency of the Z-index (Table 2) and then, use equation (9) to invert the transformation and calculate Xi.
During the operation process, a single value that exactly corresponds to the cumulative frequency rarely exists. For the climatic stage that lasts from 1960 to 1989, cumulative frequency when the PCD is -1.646 is 4.984% and the cumulative frequency when the PCD is -1.641 is 5.038%. Therefore, the PCD corresponding to a cumulative frequency of 5% is set to the average of the two values, -1.644.
Following this approach, the corresponding values of X for the cumulative frequencies of the 25 climatic stages are calculated (Table 5). The standard deviations of the estimated values for the 25 climatic stages are extremely small. The degree of dispersion of the estimated and average values for each climatic stage is very low. It can be seen as stable. Therefore, the average of the values corresponding to each cumulative frequency is the threshold.
Table 5 Value corresponding to cumulative frequency in various climatic stages
Climatic stage 5% 15% 30% 70% 85% 95%
1960-1989 0.275 0.390 0.482 0.654 0.729 0.806
1961-1990 0.269 0.385 0.477 0.651 0.725 0.804
1962-1991 0.272 0.388 0.479 0.652 0.726 0.804
1963-1992 0.272 0.386 0.478 0.650 0.724 0.802
1964-1993 0.271 0.385 0.477 0.648 0.723 0.800
1965-1994 0.268 0.383 0.475 0.648 0.723 0.802
1966-1995 0.273 0.387 0.479 0.651 0.725 0.803
1967-1996 0.273 0.387 0.479 0.651 0.725 0.803
1968-1997 0.270 0.385 0.478 0.651 0.725 0.804
1969-1998 0.270 0.385 0.477 0.650 0.725 0.803
1970-1999 0.271 0.386 0.478 0.650 0.724 0.803
1971-2000 0.268 0.383 0.476 0.649 0.723 0.802
1972-2001 0.266 0.382 0.474 0.648 0.723 0.802
1973-2002 0.269 0.385 0.477 0.649 0.723 0.801
1974-2003 0.269 0.383 0.475 0.648 0.722 0.800
1975-2004 0.271 0.384 0.475 0.647 0.720 0.798
1976-2005 0.272 0.386 0.477 0.647 0.720 0.799
1977-2006 0.271 0.384 0.475 0.646 0.719 0.798
1978-2007 0.271 0.384 0.475 0.646 0.719 0.797
1979-2008 0.271 0.383 0.474 0.645 0.718 0.796
1980-2009 0.269 0.382 0.472 0.643 0.717 0.795
1981-2010 0.267 0.381 0.471 0.642 0.716 0.794
1982-2011 0.269 0.382 0.471 0.642 0.715 0.793
1983-2012 0.268 0.381 0.471 0.641 0.714 0.793
1984-2013 0.267 0.381 0.472 0.643 0.717 0.795
Average 0.270 0.384 0.476 0.647 0.721 0.800
Standard deviation 0.002 0.002 0.003 0.003 0.004 0.004
Using the averages of the estimated values for the 25 climatic stages, the graded index for evaluating precipitation heterogeneity is defined (Table 6). The centralization scale includes mild, moderate and high centralization. The dispersion scale includes mild, moderate and high dispersion.
Table 6 Graded evaluation index of precipitation heterogeneity
Grade Types PCD Real frequency (%) Cumulative frequency (%)
1 High centralization PCD>0.800 5 100
2 Moderate centralization 0.721<PCD≤0.800 10 95
3 Mild centralization 0.647<PCD≤0.721 15 80
4 Normal 0.476≤PCD≤0.647 40 70
5 Mild dispersion 0.384≤PCD<0.476 15 30
6 Moderate dispersion 0.270≤PCD<0.384 10 15
7 High dispersion PCD<0.270 5 5

4 Comprehensive evaluation of the precipitation heterogeneity in China

4.1 Temporal changes in the precipitation heterogeneity

Using the graded index for evaluating precipitation heterogeneity, the precipitation heterogeneity at 569 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2013 in China was graded, and the frequency of each grade at each station (Table omitted), the average frequency of each grade in China (Table 7) and the station coverage rate of each precipitation heterogeneity grade in each year (Figure 4) were calculated.
Table 7 Average frequency and variation coefficient in different grades of precipitation heterogeneity
Grade Types Real frequency (%) Cumulative frequency (%) Variation coefficient
1 High centralization 4 5 2.58
2 Moderate centralization 11 10 1.30
3 Mild centralization 17 15 0.89
4 Normal 38 40 0.58
5 Mild dispersion 14 15 0.98
6 Moderate dispersion 11 10 1.37
7 High dispersion 5 5 2.09
By comparing the actual and theoretical frequencies of each grade, it was found that the actual and theoretical frequencies of each grade were basically consistent (Table 7). The actual frequency of the centralization grade was 32%, which was 2% higher than the theoretical frequency. The actual frequency of normality was 38%, which was 2% less than the theoretical frequency. The actual frequency of the dispersion grade was 30%, which was equal to the theoretical frequency.
It can be seen from the variation coefficients of the different grades (Table 7) that the higher the centralization and dispersion grades are, the larger the regional differences.
The station coverage rate of the centralization grade significantly decreased by 1.55%/10a (α=0.01) in the nearly 54 years of the study period (Figure 4a). The station coverage rate of the dispersion grade significantly decreased by 0.24%/10a (α=0.05) (Figure 4a). The station coverage rate of the normal grade decreased by 1.31%/10a (which did not pass the significance test) (Figure 4b). This shows that the area in China in which the annual precipitation tends to be normal or dispersed increased in the nearly 54 years of the study period.
Figure 4 Station coverage in different grades of precipitation heterogeneity (1960-2013)
The station coverage rates of mild, moderate and high centralization all exhibited downward trends. The tendency rates were -0.28%/10a, -1.02%/10a and -0.25%/10a, respectively. The station coverage rate of moderate centralization decreased the fastest (Figure 4c).
The station coverage rate of mild dispersion exhibited a downward trend with a tendency rate of -0.10%/10a. The station coverage rate of moderate dispersion remained basically unchanged, but exhibited a slight increase. The tendency rate was -0.10%/10a. The station coverage rate of high dispersion exhibited an upward trend. The tendency rate was 0.33%/10a (Figure 4d).
According to the variation coefficients of the station coverage rate for each grade (Table 8), the higher the centralization and dispersion grades were, the larger the interannual fluctuations were. However, the degree of fluctuation was much less than the regional differences (α=0.01). This indicated that the higher the centralization and dispersion grades are, the larger the regional differences and annual fluctuations.
Table 8 Variation coefficient of station coverage in different grades of precipitation heterogeneity
Grade High centralization Moderate centralization Mild centralization Normal Mild dispersion Moderate dispersion High dispersion
Variation coefficient 0.52 0.33 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.29 0.29

4.2 Spatial changes in the precipitation heterogeneity

4.2.1 Spatial changes in the precipitation heterogeneity
By analyzing the average grade of the precipitation heterogeneity at each meteorological station, we concluded that the precipitation heterogeneity showed the characteristics of spatial dispersion in the south and east and of centralization in the north and west (Figure 5).
In northwestern China, the distribution of the precipitation heterogeneity grade revealed three sections. That of the eastern section (Shaanxi, Ningxia and eastern Gansu) tended to be normal. The northern part of the middle section (western Gansu) was characterized as normal while the southern part of the middle section was characterized as mainly mildly or moderately centralized. The eastern section was divided into two parts by the Tianshan Mountains; its northern part (northern Xinjiang) was characterized by high dispersion and its southern part (southern Xinjiang) was characterized by mild or moderate centralization. The Tianshan area was normal.
The precipitation in northern China was generally mildly centralized. Within this region, the precipitation in Hebei, Beijing, Tianjin and northern Shanxi was mainly mildly centralized, that in eastern Hebei was moderately centralized and that in southern Shanxi was mainly normal.
The precipitation in Inner Mongolia was mainly mildly centralized, but at individual meteorological stations, it was mainly normal or moderately centralized.
There was a two-section “east-west” distribution in northeastern China. The precipitation in the east was generally normal, that in the west was generally mildly or moderately centralized and that in the area near the Greater Khingan Range was generally moderately centralized.
There was a two-section “south-north” distribution in eastern China in which the precipitation tended to be dispersive from north to south. The precipitation in the northern part (Henan and Shandong) was generally normal and that in northern Shandong tended to be mildly centralized; in the southern part (Hubei, Anhui, Jiangsu and Shanghai), the precipitation was generally mildly or moderately centralized.
The precipitation in the Jiangnan region (area south of the Yangtze River Basin) was generally moderately dispersed. In the eastern (Zhejiang and eastern Fujian) and western (Hunan and western Jiangxi) parts, the precipitation was generally moderately dispersed, and in the middle part (eastern Jiangxi and western Fujian), it was generally mildly dispersed.
In southern China, the precipitation was generally normal or mildly dispersed. In the middle part, it was generally mildly dispersed, but it was generally normal in the eastern and western parts.
In southwestern China, the precipitation was generally normal or mildly dispersed. In the eastern part (Chongqing and eastern Guizhou), it was generally mildly or moderately dispersed; in the middle part (eastern Sichuan) and Yunnan Province, it was generally moderately dispersed; in the Hengduan Mountains, it was generally moderately dispersed; and in western Sichuan, it was generally mildly centralized.
In Tibet, the precipitation was generally moderately or highly centralized. Due to incomplete meteorological data and the large area of Tibet, it was necessary to consider whether the data are representative by analyzing the spatial characteristics of the precipitation heterogeneity grades of individual meteorological stations. However, the results of performing the calculations using data from only 11 meteorological stations showed that the heterogeneity grades generally tended to be centralized. This consistency supports the result given above.
By analyzing the variation coefficients of the precipitation heterogeneity at various meteorological stations, the numerical stability of the precipitation heterogeneity was shown to have the following spatial characteristics: the “south and east were steady, but the north and west were fluctuant” (Figure 6). People living in the regions in which the precipitation homogeneity tended to fluctuate should pay more attention to the spatiotemporal regulation of water to respond to droughts and floods. The precipitation heterogeneity tended to fluctuate more in Inner Mongolia, the eastern part of northern China (Hebei, Beijing and Tianjin), the eastern part of northeastern China, the middle (western Qinghai and western Gansu) and western parts of northwestern China (southern Xinjiang) and Tibet.
Figure 5 Spatial distribution of average grade of precipitation heterogeneity
Figure 6 Spatial distribution of grade variation coefficient of precipitation heterogeneity
4.2.2 Spatial changes in the frequency of each precipitation heterogeneity grade
We analyzed the frequency of each precipitation heterogeneity grade at various meteorological stations in China. For the purpose of convenient description and understanding, we defined the frequency grades as follows: 0-20% is very low, 20%-40% is low, 40%-60% is moderate, 60%-80% is high, and 80%-100% is very high.
(1) The spatial distribution of the frequency of the centralization grade
In the nearly 54 years of the study period, the frequency of the centralization grade was generally low in the south and high in the north (Figure 7).
The frequency increased from east to west in northwestern China. Among these cities, the frequency was very low at Shaanxi, very low or moderate at Ningxia and Gansu, high at Qinghai, very low in northern Xinjiang, and moderate or high in southern Xinjiang.
The frequency was high in northern China, especially in the east, and the frequency gradually increased from west to east.
The frequency was high in the Inner Mongolia region and very high in the area near the Greater Khingan Range.
The frequency increased from east to west in northeastern China.
In southern China, the Jiangnan region, eastern China (except for Shandong Province) and the eastern part of southwestern China (Guizhou and Chongqing), the frequency was low, which showed that the precipitation in these areas was homogenous.
The frequency was low in southwestern China and tended to be low in the west and high in the east. It was low in the east (Guizhou and Chongqing) and the west (eastern Sichuan and eastern Yunnan). In addition, the frequency was high on the border between Yunnan and Sichuan.
The frequency was very high in Tibet.
(2) The spatial distribution of the frequency of the normal grade
The spatial distribution of the frequency of normal precipitation was complex during the 54 years of the study period, and the distribution was different in each region (Figure 8).
In northwestern China, the frequency was high in the east and low in the west. The frequency was high in Shaanxi, Ningxia, and eastern Gansu and very low or low in Qinghai, western Gansu and Xinjiang.
In northern China, the frequency exhibited the special characteristic of being low in the west and high in the east. It was very low or low in Hebei, Beijing and Tianjin and very high in Shanxi.
The frequency was low or moderate in the Inner Mongolia region.
The frequency was high in the east and low in the west of northeastern China. It was high in the east and low or moderate in west.
The spatial distribution of the frequency showed that it was high in the northern part and low in the southern part of northern China. The frequency was moderate or high in Shandong and Henan, but low or very low in Hubei, Anhui, Jiangsu, and Shanghai.
In the Jiangnan region, the frequency was low or very low, but it was higher in Fujian.
In southern China, the frequency was low or moderate.
On the whole, the frequency was high in southwestern China. It was low in eastern Chongqing and Guizhou but high or very high in western Guizhou, Sichuan and Yunnan.
There were some internal differences in Tibet, and the frequency was very low or low in general.
Figure 7 Spatial distribution of frequency of centralization grade (1960-2013)
Figure 8 Spatial distribution of frequency of normal grade (1960-2013)
(3) The spatial distribution of the frequency of the dispersion grade
The spatial pattern of the frequency of the dispersion grade in China was that it was high in the south and low in the north (Figure 9).
In northwestern China, the frequency was generally high in the west and low in the east. The frequency was low or moderate in southern Shaanxi and very low in northern Shaanxi, Gansu and Qinghai. The frequency was low or moderate in southern Xinjiang and very high in northern Xinjiang.
In northern China, the Inner Mongolia region, northeastern China and Tibet, the frequency was very low.
The frequency gradually increased from north to south in eastern China. The frequency was low in Henan and very low in Shandong and high or very high in Hubei, Anhui, Jiangsu and Shanghai.
Figure 9 Spatial distribution of frequency of dispersed grade (1960-2013)
The frequency was high and generally characterized as extremely high in the Jiangnan region.
The frequency was low or moderate in southern China.
In view of the overall situation, the southwestern part exhibited a spatial distribution of the frequency that was high in the east and low in the west. The frequency in eastern Chongqing and Guizhou was high or very high, but it was very low or low in Sichuan, Yunnan and western Guizhou.

4.3 Comprehensive evaluation of the precipitation heterogeneity

Considering the spatiotemporal variations in the average grade, frequency and variation coefficients of the precipitation heterogeneity grade at each station, we comprehensively assessed and classified the precipitation heterogeneity using the GIS spatial overlay method (Figure 10).
Figure 10 Comprehensive evaluation of precipitation heterogeneity in China
The precipitation was highly centralized in Tibet, the eastern part of northern China (Hebei, Beijing and Tianjin) and the Greater Khingan region (eastern Inner Mongolia and the western part of northeastern China). The precipitation was moderately centralized in southern Xinjiang, Qinghai and Inner Mongolia. It was mildly centralized in northern Gansu and Shandong.
The precipitation was normal in the western part of southwestern China (Sichuan, Yunnan and western Guizhou), the eastern part of northwestern China (Shaanxi, Ningxia and southern Gansu), Shanxi, Henan and the eastern part of northeastern China.
The precipitation was mildly dispersed in southern China. It was moderately dispersed in the eastern part of southwestern China (Chongqing and eastern Guizhou) and the southern part of eastern China (Hubei, Anhui, Jiangsu and Shanghai). It was highly dispersed in the Jiangnan region and northern Xinjiang.
To check the accuracy of the comprehensive evaluation and regionalization, we analyzed the temporal variations in the precipitation heterogeneity in each region (see Figure 11).
Normal region (Figure 11a): There were 52 normal years and 2 years with moderate degrees of centralization; therefore, normal years accounted for the overwhelming majority.
Mild dispersion region (Figure 11b): There were 26 years that were both normal and mild degrees of dispersion and 2 years with moderate degrees of dispersion. There were significantly more years with mild degrees of dispersion than there were in the normal region.
Moderate dispersion region (Figure 11c): There were 11 normal years, 28 years with mild degrees of dispersion and 15 years with moderate degrees of dispersion. There were significantly more years with moderate degrees of dispersion than there were in the mild dispersion region.
High dispersion region (Figure 11d): There were 11 years with mild degrees of dispersion, 28 years with moderate degrees of dispersion and 15 years with high degrees of dispersion. There were significantly more years with high degrees of dispersion than there were in the moderate dispersion region.
Mild centralization region (Figure 11e): There were 34 normal years, 18 years with mild degrees of centralization and 2 years with moderate degrees of centralization. There were significantly more years with mild degrees of centralization than there were in the normal region.
Moderate centralization region (Figure 11f): There were 11 normal years, 28 years with mild degrees of centralization and 15 years with moderate degrees of centralization. There were significantly more years with moderate degrees of centralization than there were in the mild centralization region.
High centralization region (Figure 11g): There were 14 normal years, 30 years with moderate degrees of centralization and 14 years with high degrees of centralization. There were significantly more years with high degrees of centralization than there were in the moderate centralization region.
Each category region of precipitation heterogeneity had obvious differences; therefore, the comprehensive evaluation of the precipitation heterogeneity and the climatic divisions were relatively accurate and efficient.
Figure 11 Grade changes of each region (1960-2013)

5 Discussion and conclusions

5.1 Discussion

(1) The problem of basic units
In this study, the provincial administrative area was taken as the basic unit of the analysis. In the comprehensive evaluation of the precipitation heterogeneity in China, it was found that the internal differences in each individual region are very obvious. Therefore, the county administrative areas in some regions were taken as basic units to refine the analysis, allowing it to reflect the regional differences in the precipitation in China more comprehensively. These regions are mainly the Greater Khingan Range area (eastern Inner Mongolia and the western part of northeastern China), northern Xinjiang, southern Gansu and western Guizhou.
(2) The problem of the evaluation index
The methods of studying the precipitation heterogeneity are varied. If we use a variety of methods to study and analyze this problem, it is easy to produce inconsistent or even opposing results. By comparing the advantages and disadvantages of various research methods, it was found that the precipitation concentration degree (PCD) method was the best in many ways. Therefore, the precipitation concentration degree method was used to analyze the precipitation heterogeneity in this study. The commonly used methods for studying precipitation heterogeneity are the non-uniform coefficient, precipitation concentration degree and Gini coefficient methods. The resolution and sensitivity of the precipitation concentration degree are higher than those of the heterogeneity coefficient (Tang et al., 1982a; Yang, 1984), and Gini coefficients are based on the Lorenz curve, the estimation of which is complex. Therefore, the precipitation concentration degree method is optimal in many ways. In addition, the threshold values were determined on the basis of a normal distribution, cumulative frequencies and the percentile method, which had to be based on a certain level of subjective experience. To modify the frequency of each level’s occurrence, the corresponding threshold must be determined. There is a certain degree of volatility, and we need to find the optimal frequency and set a fixed threshold in future applications of this method.
(3) The problem of the time scale
The time scale used in this paper has an important influence on the characteristics of the precipitation heterogeneity. According to the theoretical characteristics of the PCD method, the smaller the time scale and the azimuth distance are, the more they reflect the precipitation heterogeneity and the higher the accuracy is. This requires the data to be very accurate. However, the larger the time scale is, the greater the azimuthal distance is, which makes it impossible to reflect the characteristics of the precipitation heterogeneity very well. Precipitation is generally concentrated in the summer in most regions of China, and monthly or seasonal precipitation data are used in the analysis, it is impossible to distinguish the heterogeneity of each region. If daily precipitation data are used in the analysis, there is a small azimuthal range, a large workload, and higher requirements. Therefore, this study mainly uses 5-day total precipitation data to study the precipitation heterogeneity.

5.2 Conclusions

The aim of this study was to propose and establish a graded index for evaluating precipitation heterogeneity that can be used in all of China. Then, the graded index was used to perform a comprehensive evaluation of the precipitation heterogeneity in China from 1960 to 2013. The study reached the following conclusions:
(1) It proposed and established a graded index for evaluating precipitation heterogeneity that can be used in all of China. The precipitation concentration degree (PCD) at each meteorological station was calculated using daily precipitation data from 569 national observation stations for the period from 1960 to 2013. By comparisons made using normal distribution functions, cumulative frequencies and the percentile method, we used the averages of estimated values for 25 climatic stages to define each grade’s threshold, and then, established a graded index for evaluating precipitation heterogeneity (Table 6).
(2) The precipitation in more parts of China tended to be normal or dispersed. In these areas, the station coverage rates of mild centralization, moderate centralization and high centralization all exhibited downward trends. The station coverage rate of mild dispersion exhibited a downward trend. The station coverage rate of moderate dispersion remained basically unchanged and increased slightly. The station coverage rate of high dispersion exhibited an upward trend.
(3) Based on the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of the precipitation heterogeneity in China, all of China was divided into seven regions. Tibet, the eastern part of northern China and the Greater Khingan region comprised the high centralization region. Southern Xinjiang, Qinghai and Inner Mongolia comprised the moderate centralization region. Northern Gansu and Shandong comprised the mild centralization region. The western part of southwestern China, the eastern part of northwestern China, Shanxi, Henan and the eastern part of northeastern China comprised the normal region. The southern part of China comprised the mild dispersion region. The eastern part of southwestern China and the southern part of eastern China comprised the moderate dispersion region. The Jiangnan region and northern Xinjiang comprised the high dispersion region.

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

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Deng P X, Hu Q F, Wang Y T.et al., 2014. Heterogeneity study of rainfall in the Taihu Lake basin.Hydro-Science and Engineering, (5): 34-40. (in Chinese)Based on the annual rainfall series in the Taihu Lake basin and seven sub-areas during the period of1951鈥2011,three heterogeneity indices such as the apportionment entropy disorder index,Gini coefficient and variational coefficient have been applied to analyze the heterogeneity of the annual and rainy season rainfall distribution at the monthly and decadal scales. The relationships between the historical flood or drought and the heterogeneity indices are investigated. The long term changing trend and constancy of rainfall in the homogeneity indices are tested by the trend-free pre-whitening Mann-Kendall and Hurst. Also,its possible influences on future drought or flood have been primarily discussed in this study. Analysis results show that there are small differences among the three kinds of the rainfall heterogeneity indices. When the annual rainfall and heterogeneity index values are both high,it is easy for the study area to suffer flood disaster. When the annual rainfall is relatively low while the index values is high,it is easy to suffer drought. With the heterogeneity of rainfall distribution in the rainy season increases significantly,the risk of drought and disasters is also rising in the coming years. So it is necessary to continue to analyze precipitation heterogeneity in the space in order to reveal precipitation differences in the space scales. The study would provide a technical support to disaster prevention and disaster reduction for the basin.

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Dong Q, Chen X, Chen T X, 2011. Characteristics and changes of extreme precipitation in the Yellow-Huaihe and and Yangtze-Huaihe rivers basins, China.Journal of Climate, 24(14): 3781-3795.Many works suggest that the intensity of extreme precipitation might be changing under the background of global warming. Because of the importance of extreme precipitation in the Yellow-Huaihe and Yangtze-Huaihe River basins of China and to compare the spatial difference, the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) function is used to fit the daily precipitation series in these basins and an estimate of the extreme precipitation spatial distribution is presented. At the same time, its long-term trends are estimated for the period between 1951 and 2004 by using a generalized linear model (GLM), which is based on GPD. High quality daily precipitation data from 215 observation stations over the area are used in this study. The statistical significance of the trend fields is tested with a Monte Carlo experiment based on a two-dimensional Hurst coefficient, H-2.<br/>The spatial distribution of the shape parameter of GPD indicates that the upper reaches of the Huaihe River (HuR) basin have the largest probability of extreme rainfall events, which is consistent with most historical flood records in this region. Spatial variations in extreme precipitation trends are found and show significant positive trends in the upper reaches of Poyang Lake in the Yangtze River (YaR) basin and a significant negative trend in the mid-to lower reaches of the Yellow River (YeR) and Haihe River (HaR) basins. The trends in the HuR basin and the lower reaches of Poyang Lake in the YaR basin are nearly neutral. All trend fields are significant at the 5% level of significance from the Monte Carlo experiments.

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Gong D Y, Han H, 2004. Extreme climate events in Northern China over the last 50 years.Acta Geographica Sinica, 59(2): 230-238. (in Chinese)<p>Climate in the agri-pasture transition zone, northern China is analyzed on the basis of daily mean temperature and precipitation observations for 31 stations during 1956-2001. Analysis season for precipitation is May-September, and for temperature is the hottest three months, i.e., June through August. Heavy rain events, defined as those with daily precipitation equal to or larger than 50 mm, show no significant secular trend. A jump-like change, however, is found occurring in about 1980. For the period 1980-1993, the frequency of heavy rain events is significantly lower than the previous periods. Simultaneously, the occurring time of heavy rains expanded, commencing about one month early and ending one month later. Long dry spells are defined as those with longer than 10 days without rainfall. The frequency of long dry spells displays a significant (at 99% confidence level) trend at the value of +8.3%/10a. That may be one of the major causes for the frequent droughts emerging over northern China during the last decades. The frequency of hot days is increasing, while the low temperatures are significantly decreasing.</p>

8
Gu W L, Wang J J, Zhu Y Y.et al., 2010. Annual distribution of precipitation over the Huaihe River basin.Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 19(4): 426-431. (in Chinese)<p>Annual distribution of precipitation was concerned with flow recharge situation.Nonuniformity of precipitation was the primary cause of flooddrought disasters in monsoon climate zone.Based on the daily precipitation data of 84 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2005 over the Huaihe river basin,provided by Climate Center of Henan Province and National Meteorological Information Center,China Meteorological Administration,precipitation nonuniformity,including nonuniformity coefficient,concentration degree,concentration period and flooddrought 〖WTBX〗Z〖WTBZ〗index were calculated and analyzed.The results showed that the annual distribution of precipitation in the Huaihe river Valley was distinctly heterogeneous,especially in the north area.Compared with the south of Huaihe river basin,the precipitation of north was not abundant,which aggravated the drought of the north in Huaihe river basin.The nonuniformity distribution of precipitation varied distinctly between years&mdash;&mdash;variation of upstream was more distinct than that of downstream;furthermore,variation tendency of the north was different with that of the south,and the amplitude of variations was also different.The concentration period of precipitation were delayed gradually from south to north,and precipitation concentration period was consistent with the main flood season time.Variation of precipitation 〖JP2〗concentration period in the south was much more obvious than that of the north&mdash;&mdash;the precipitation of south Huaihe river varied visible,while the precipitation of north was smoother.The flooddrought was significantly related to the precipitation concentration degree in the most area of Huaihe river basin.</p>

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Huang J Y, 2007. Meteorological Statistical Analysis and Prediction Method. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 24-26. (in Chinese)

10
Ju X S, Yang X W, Chen L J.et al., 1997. Research on determination of station indexes and division of regional flood/ drought grades in China.Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology, 8(1): 26-33. (in Chinese)By use of the monthly precipitation data of eight sampling meteorological stations in China from 1951 to 1995, the three single indexes for flood and drought were tested and compared with each other. The Z index was recognized to be optimum. On this basis, the 80 stations

11
Li J, Yu R C, Sun W, 2013. Calculation and analysis of the thresholds of hourly extreme precipitation in mainland China.Torrential Rain and Disasters, 32(1): 11-16. (in Chinese)Using two methods in thresholds definition, Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution and percentile measurement, the thresholds of hourly rainfall intensity at 465 stations in mainland China are analyzed on different extreme scales. GEV distribution shows that the thresholds for 2, 5, 10, and 50-year return period share an identical spatial distribution, which exhibits highest values in coastal region of southern China; higher values in the north of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley, west of Sichuan basin, and east of northern China; lower values in the midwest of Yunnan, west of northern China, and west of northeast China; lowest values in the western China. Meanwhile, the percentile results have the same distribution pattern as GEV outcomes on a whole, which present higher thresholds in southeast and lower thresholds in northwest. The medians at 465 stations are analyzed. The results indicate that intensity thresholds of the 99.9th percentile are close to intensity thresholds of 2-year return period. Having converted the thresholds of the 99.9th percentile to return period level, it is shown that the return periods are under 2-year in Yangtze River valley and its southern area; longer than 4-year along 35&deg;N; longer than 8-year in parts of northern China and northwest China.

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Li Q X, Huang J Y, 2010. Study on threshold values with an extreme events of precipitation in Beijing.Advances in Water Science, 21(5): 660-665. (in Chinese)Using daily precipitation data for the period of 1951-2008 in Beijing,the study on the threshold values falling above the percentiles of the extreme events of precipitation,and the calculation of the threshold values with five methods,which are sorting,in terpolated,normal distribution transformation,square-root transformation,and cube root transformation,are researched in this paper.The results show that the evaluation of the threshold values using the method of square-root translation has the best effect in five methods.The mean of the threshold values on 30 year moving climatic period can be as the extreme events of daily precipitation in climate.

13
Li X M, Jiang F Q, Li L H.et al., 2011. Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation concentration index, concentration degree and concentration period in Xinjiang, China.International Journal of Climatology, 31(11): 1679-1693.This paper studied the spatial and temporal variability of the statistical structures of precipitation across Xinjiang, China, by analysing the time series of daily precipitation from 50 weather stations during the period from 1961 to 2008. Three indices precipitation concentration index (CI), precipitation concentration degree (PCD) and precipitation concentration period (PCP) were used to detect precipitation concentrations and the associated spatial patterns. The results show that higher precipitation CI values were mainly observed in Southern Xinjiang, whereas lower precipitation CI values were mostly detected in Northern Xinjiang. The precipitation CI values are noticeably larger in places where both annual total precipitation and number of rainy days are lower. The Mann-Kendall trend test demonstrates that the most parts of Xinjiang are characterized by no significant trends of precipitation CI at the 0.05 significance level. The periodicity characteristic of precipitation CI time series in Xinjiang could be detected by wavelet power spectrum analysis, and significant periods of that in most of Xinjiang were concentrated on 2-5 years band. The results of PCP reveal that rainfall in Xinjiang mostly occurs in summer, and the rainy season arrives earlier in Eastern Xinjiang than Western Xinjiang, whereas the results of PCD indicate that the rainfall in Northern Xinjiang was more dispersed within a year than that in Southern Xinjiang. Copyright (C) 2010 Royal Meteorological Society

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14
Liu W L, Zhang M J, Wang S J.et al., 2013. Intra-annual inhomogeneity of precipitation and its prediction in Shaanxi Province of Northwest China in 1960-2011.Chinese Journal of Ecology, 32(7): 1877-1887. (in Chinese)<p>Based on the daily precipitation data from 19 stations in Shaanxi Province during 1960-2011, and by using the methods of inverse distance weighted interpolation, climate tendency coefficient, MK mutations inspection, Morlet wavelet analysis, correlation analysis, synthetic analysis, and R/S analysis, this paper analyzed the variation characteristics of intraannual precipitation concentration degree and concentration period and their variation tendency in the Province. In 1960-2011, the intraannual precipitation concentration degree in the Province ranged from 0.44 to 0.66, and presented the spatial distribution characteristics of being higher in the south and north but lower in the middle part. The intraannual precipitation concentration period ranged from 18.32-22.37 ten days, and showed comparatively small regional difference. The intraannual precipitation concentration degree presented an increasing trend, while the intra-annual precipitation concentration period displayed an advanced tendency. The variation trends of the intra-precipitation concentration degree and concentration period all existed obvious regional differences. A decreasing abrupt variation in the intraannual precipitation concentration degree occurred in 1974, while the postponed abrupt variation of the intra-annual precipitation concentration period happened in 1962. The variations of the intra-annual precipitation concentration degree and concentration period did not have a fixed cycle, but various cycle scales nested each other, showing stronger partial characteristics of time and frequency. In the whole province, the annual precipitation was positively correlated with intra-annual precipitation concentration degree, and also, positively correlated with intra-annual precipitation concentration period except in Hengshan of northern Shaanxi. Both in waterish and in water deficient years, the spatial distribution of intra-annual precipitation concentration degree displayed the characteristics of being higher in the south and north but lower in the middle part, while the spatial distribution of intra-annual precipitation concentration period had a greater difference. The variation tendency of the intra-annual precipitation concentration degree and concentration period in the future would keep the same with that in the past 52 years.</p>

15
Liu X Y, Shi Z T, Peng H Y.et al., 2007. Study on precipitation temporal distribution homogeneous degree based on the Gini coefficient.Journal of Meteorological Research and Application, 28(2): 46-48. (in Chinese)The Gini coefficient is an important index in measuring inequality in economics.It is introduced to assess the homogeneous degree of the precipitation distribution.The assessment of the homogeneous degree from 1972 to 2001 by Gini coefficient in Kunming city indicates that the 30-year mean Gini coefficient of homogeneous degree of temporal distribution of precipitation is 0.47457 and the 10-year average value is 0.46672 from 1972 to 1981,0.49068 from 1982 to 1991 and 0.46631 from 1992锝2001.The Gini coefficient of precipitation temporal distribution homogeneity degree is descent with a large inter-annual change and the smallest Gini coefficient is 0.3342 in 1998,which has severe flood and draught.It shows that the precipitation temporal distribution in-homogeneity is the main reason to the severe drought and flood in city in the monsoon area in China.

16
Lu Z H, Xia Z Q, Yu L L.et al., 2012. Temporal and spatial variation of characteristics of precipitation in Songhua River basin during 1958-2009.Journal of Natural Resources, 27(6): 990-1000. (in Chinese)In order to illustrate and analyze temporal and spatial variation of characteristics of precipitation in Songhua River Basin, the precipitation data were interpolated by Kriging interpolation method. The Mann-Kendall test was applied to examine the trend of precipitation. The concentration degree and period of annual precipitation were used to analyze the annual distribution of precipitation. The results show that ∶1) In recent 52 years (1958—2009) the annual precipitation shows an indistinctive negative trend. The annual precipitation decreases from eastern part to western part, and most of the basin area show an indistinctive negative trend. 2) The annual precipitation distribution is uneven, occurs mainly from May to September, with June to August being most abundant. The flood-season (from June to September) precipitation occupies 77.65% of the annual precipitation and shows a weak negative trend throughout the basin. 3) The concentration degree of annual precipitation is very high, averaging 0.682, and the concentration degree of southeastern part is smaller than that of northwestern part. The concentration period of annual precipitation is from 181.90° to 187.68°, the annual precipitation is concentrated from 20, July to 26, July, the concentration period of northern part is longer than that of southern part. The concentration degree of annual precipitation shows an indistinctive decreasing trend,while the concentration period of annual precipitation shows a significant decreasing trend.

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17
Mishra A K, Özger M, Singh V P, 2009. An entropy-based investigation into the variability of precipitation.Journal of Hydrology, 370(1): 139-154.SummaryEmploying the entropy concept spatial and temporal variability of precipitation time series were investigated for the State of Texas, USA. Marginal entropy was used to investigate the variability associated with monthly, seasonal and annual time series. Also, apportionment entropy and intensity entropy were used for investigating the intra-annual and decadal distributions of monthly and annual precipitation amounts and numbers of rainy days within a year and decade respectively. Finally, the Hurst exponent and the Mann-Kendall test were used to evaluate the long-term persistence and trend in the variability of precipitation. Distinct spatial patterns in annual series and different seasons were observed. The variability of precipitation amount as well as number of rainy days within a year increased from east to west of Texas. The results also indicated that highly disorderliness in the amount of precipitation and number of rainy days caused severe droughts during the 1950's in whole of Texas.

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Qin W J, Wang Y Q, Qin Z N, 2010. Study on variation characteristics of precipitation concentration degree in Guangxi under the background of global climate becoming warm.Meteorological and Environmental Research, 1(5): 17-21.

19
Shi W L, Yang Q K, Li X F.et al., 2012. Study on temporal inequality of precipitation in the Loess Plateau based on Lorenz curve.Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas, 30(4): 172-177. (in Chinese)Based on the model of precipitation distribution describing with Gini coefficient in Yan'an and Yulin,the annual precipitation,Gini coefficient and Lorenz asymmetry coefficient were analysized for the period of 1961鈥2010 and the Mann-Kendall test was employed to detect the upward or downward trend in precipitation,Gini coefficient and Lorenz asymmetry coefficient during the study period.The results showed that the annual precipitation in Yan'an and Yulin located in the loess plateau was in a decreasing trend during the past 50 years and mean Gini coefficient was respectively 0.56 and 0.61.The yearly Lorenz asymmetry coefficient(S1) accounted for a high percentage,33.3% in Yulin and 16.7% in Yan'an.Yulin showed increasing Gini coefficient and decreasing Lorenz asymmetry coefficient while Yan'an indicated decreasing Gini coefficient and increasing Lorenz asymmetry coefficient,but these trends had no significance at a 95% confidence level.Therefore,precipitation distribution was becoming more and more uneven in Yulin since greater percentages of the yearly total precipitations in a few very unrainy months.However,the monthly precipitation within one year in Yan'an had a uniform distribution and a greater percentage of the precipitation in a few rainy months.In the three years of 1972,1986 and 1997 in Yulin,the Lorenz asymmetry coefficient was greater than 1.It indicated that the precipitation inequality was caused by the heavy rainfall in some months of the year which was also the most abnormal year of drought.In conclusion, Lorenz curve from a novel perspective is an available way for evaluating quantitatively the temporal distribution of precipitation and analyzing its causes,which provided scientific basis for the analysis of mechanism of natural disasters like drought and soil loss.

20
Shi W L, Yu X Z, Liao W G.et al., 2013. Spatial and temporal variability of daily precipitation concentration in the Lancang River basin, China.Journal of Hydrology, 495: 197-207.The Lorenz Curve, a concept used in economic theory, is used to quantify spatial–temporal variability in the daily time series of precipitation concentrations. The Lorenz Curve provides a graphical view of the cumulative percentage of total yearly precipitation. In addition, further extraction of the data using the Gini coefficient and Lorenz asymmetry coefficient provides a two-parameter measure of precipitation concentration and an explanation of the basis for the underlying inequalities in precipitation distribution. Based on the calculation of the precipitation concentration index (CI) and the Lorenz asymmetry coefficient ( S ) values from 1960 to 2010, variations in the trends and periodic temporal–spatial patterns of precipitation at 31 stations across the Lancang River basin are discussed. The results are as follows: (1) highest precipitation CI values occurred in the southern Lancang River basin, whereas the lowest precipitation CI values were mainly observed in the upper reaches of the Lancang River basin, which features a more homogeneous temporal distribution of rainfall. S values throughout the entire basin were less than one, indicating that minor precipitation events have the highest contribution to overall precipitation inequality. (2) Application of the Mann–Kendall test revealed that a significant, decreasing trend in precipitation CI that exceeding the 95th percentile was detected in the upper and middle reaches of the Lancang River basin. However, there was only one significant (0.05) S value trend throughout the river. (3) Climate jumps in annual CI occurred during the early 1960s, 1970s and 1980s at Jinghong, Deqin and Zaduo stations, respectively. (4) Dominant periodic variations in precipitation CI, with periods of 4–17years, were found. These results allow for an improved understanding of extreme climate events and improved river basin water resource management.

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21
Singh V P, 1997. The use of entropy in hydrology and water resources.Hydrological Processes, 11(6): 587-626.Abstract Since the development of the entropy theory by Shannon in the late 1940s and of the principle of maximum entropy (POME) by Jaynes in the late 1950s there has been a proliferation of applications of entropy in a wide spectrum of areas, including hydrological and environmental sciences. The real impetus to entropy-based hydrological modelling was provided by Amorocho and Espildora in 1972. A great variety of entropy applications in hydrology and water resources have since been reported, and new applications continue to unfold. This paper reviews the recent contributions on entropy applications in hydrology and water resources, discusses the usefulness and versatility of the entropy concept, and reflects on the strengths and limitations of this concept. The paper concludes with comments on its implications in developing countries. 漏 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Tang Q C, Cheng T W, Li X Y, 1982a. Preliminary study on the degree and time of concentration of monthly runoff of Chinese streams.Acta Geographica Sinica, 37(4): 383-393. (in Chinese)Taking runoff volume of time interval as a vector, the degree and time of con- centration can be resulted by means of vector composition. They are considered as a rather new expression describing seasonal distribution of stream, runoff which can be performed on the basis of different time intervals (day, month, season, etc.) in accor- dance with specific requirements. The resultant vector composition is a graph, taking monthly runoff as time unit (Fig. 2 and 3). Degree of concentration represents the magnitude of concentration of monthly stream runoff within twelve months. It is closely related with unequilibrium coefficient of monthly stream runoff (Fig. 1) but possesses a higher resolution than that of unequilib- rium coefficient. Time of concentration represents the most regulatable months in terms of accumulation of monthly stream runoff which, in most cases, are comparable to the months regarding that with practically maximum values occured. Data of the hydrological stations (8,307 station-years in all) in China are selected in this paper for calculation and illustration. Upon which isopleth maps of degree of concentration (Fig. 4) and time of concentration (Fig. 5) of stream-runoff in China have been constructed. Analysis on the law of distribution of the above mentioned two maps is thus carried out areally. Degree of concentration of stream runoff in China is comparatively high, it is especially so in northern part of China. If these runoff volumes are sufficiently utilized, greater regulating reservoir capacity would be re- quired. Since degree of concentration of rivers in west China occurs in summer months it is necessary to prepare regulating reservoir capacity beforehand for flood preven- tion.

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Tang Q C, Yang X Y, 1982b. Calculation and discussion of the non-uniform coefficient of annual runoff distribution.Resources Science, 4(3): 59-65. (in Chinese)

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Wang J J, Pei T F, Gu W L.et al., 2007. Non-uniformity index of annual precipitation distribution.Chinese Journal of Ecology, 26(9): 1364-1368. (in Chinese)

26
Wang N, Li D L, Zhang J, 2013. The intra-seasonal heterogeneity of the strong precipitation events and the corresponding atmosphere circulation characteristics in the middle and upper Yellow River Basin in flood season.Journal of Desert Research, 33(1): 239-248. (in Chinese)<p>Based on the daily precipitation data collected in May through October during 1960-2008 and the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data, we analyzed the characteristics of the rainfalls in the middle and upper Yellow River basin in flood season and the corresponding atmosphere circulation pattern. The studied area could be divided into plateau area, arid area and monsoon area if the climate zone and the local river system were concerned. The heterogeneity of the three areas was evaluated with the strong precipitation concentration period (SCP) and the strong precipitation concentration degree (SCD). The results were summarized as follows: (1) The dependence of the precipitation on the strong rainfall was obvious in most area of the middle and upper Yellow River basin. The middle Shannxi Province and southern Shanxi province had fare intra-seasonal even distributed rainfalls, while Hetao area and northern Shaanxi province had some strong ones. (2) The average occurrence dates of the strong rainfall in flood season in plateau area was the earliest, followed by that in arid area, and then in monsoon area with a five-day delay. In south of the monsoon area, just Weihe, Jinghe and Luohe Basin and in east of the plateau area, the SCP changed greatly. In the 1990s, there took place significant decrease mutations of the SCP both in arid area and monsoon area, and that in arid area was earlier than that in monsoon area. (3) In the arid area, the high circulation situation in the SCP anomalous years showed that there would be strong rainfall in front of or behind of the flood season when the Western Pacific Subtropic High (WPSH) at 500 hPa on the northern side of 30&deg;N, around 120&deg;E, and the Southern Asia High (SAH) at 200 hPa on the eastern side of 120&deg;E, around 30&deg;N, moved towards each other or backwards each other. In the monsoon area, there was the same phenomenon as in the arid area when the WPSH located in 26&deg;-30&deg;N, around 120&deg;E, meanwhile the SAH on the western side of 120&deg;E, around 30&deg;N.</p>

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Wang X R, Guo J X, Wang W G.et al., 2009. China Meteorological Geographical Regionalization (Consultation Draft). National Climate Center. (in Chinese)

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Xiong J, 2003. A comparative analysis of appraisal method of Gini coefficient.Research on Financial and Economic Issues, (1): 79-82. (in Chinese)

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Yang Y D, 1984. Calculation method of the annual runoff distribution.Acta Geographica Sinica, 39(2): 218-227. (in Chinese)

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Zhai P M, Pan X H, 2003. Change in extreme temperature and precipitation over northern China during the second half of the 20th century.Acta Geographica Sinica, 58(S1): 1-10. (in Chinese)Study on change of weather and climate extremes has become an important aspect inmodern climate change research. Based on the daily surface air temperature data from 200 stations and daily precipitation data from 739 stations during the second half of the 20th century, schemes for analyzing climate extremes were designed mainly according to percentiles of a non-parametric distribution and the gross errors in the daily data were removed based on a newly designed quality control procedure. The spatial and temporal characteristics of change of climate extremes over northern China were studied. The main conclusions are summarized as follows: 1) The number of days with maximum temperatures over 35 o C decreased slightly. The decreasing trends are obvious in the North China Plain and the Hexi Corridor. However, since the 1990s, the extreme hot days increased greatly. Meanwhile, the frost days decreased significantly in northern China, especially in the eastern part of northern China and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. Increase trends were found for the 95th percentiles of daily maximum temperatures except in the southern part of North China, while obvious decrease trends were found for the 5th percentiles of daily minimum temperatures. 2) The extreme intense precipitation events obviously increased in much of northwestern China but decreased in the eastern part of northeastern China and most parts of North China. The number of heavy rain days increased in eastern Inner Mongolia and eastern Northeast China, but obviously decreased in the Northeast China Plain and North China.

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Zhang L J, Qian Y, 2003. Annual distribution features of precipitation in China and their interannual variations.Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 17(2): 146-163.The hierarchy and definition of the precipitation-concentration degree and precipitation-concentration period of annual precipitation have been proposed by using the so-called vectormethod of annual distribution of precipitation,so that the two relevant parameters can representthe annual distribution of total precipitation correctly and indeed accurately.The relationshipbetween the spatial and temporal distribution patterns and variations of the two parameters and theannual precipitation amount in China has been further investigated.Results demonstrate that theprecipitation-concentration degree and the precipitation-concentration period increase fromsoutheast to northwest gradually.Moreover there obviously exists a belt pattern:the largestvariability of the precipitation-concentration degree and the precipitation-concentration periodoccurs in the Yellow River Valley and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River,corresponding to the significant zones in which flood and drought take place frequently.It is foundthat there exist high correlations between the precipitation-concentration degree and precipitation-concentration period and the annual precipitation amount in Northeast China,North China,themiddle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.Furthermore,8-year and 22-year periodic oscillations in the precipitation-concentration degreeand 6-year and 12-year cycles in the precipitation-concentration period are identified by use of theirMorlet wavelet analysis.

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Zhang L J, Qian Y F, 2004. A study on the feature of precipitation concentration and its relation to flood-producing in the Yangtze River valley of China.Chinese Journal of Geophysics, 47(4): 622-630. (in Chinese)

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Zhang Q, Zou X K, Xiao F J et al., 2006. Classification of Meteorological Drought, GB/T 20481-2006. Beijing: Standards Press of China. (in Chinese)

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Zhang X B, Hegerl G, Zwiers F W.et al., 2005. Avoiding inhomogeneity in percentile-based indices of temperature extremes.Journal of Climate, 18(11):1641-1651.Using a Monte Carlo simulation, it is demonstrated that percentile-based temperature indices computed for climate change detection and monitoring may contain artificial discontinuities at the beginning and end of the period that is used for calculating the percentiles (base period). This would make these exceedance frequency time series unsuitable for monitoring and detecting climate change. The problem occurs because the threshold calculated in the base period is affected by sampling error. On average, this error leads to overestimated exceedance rates outside the base period. A bootstrap resampling procedure is proposed to estimate exceedance frequencies during the base period. The procedure effectively removes the inhomogeneity.

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Zhang X B, Wang J F, Zwiers F W.et al., 2010. The influence of large-scale climate variability on winter maximum daily precipitation over North America.Journal of Climate, 23(11): 2902-2915.The generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is fitted to winter season daily maximum precipitation over North America, with indices representing El Ni09o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) as predictors. It was found that ENSO and PDO have spatially consistent and statistically significant influences on extreme precipitation, while the influence of NAO is regional and is not field significant. The spatial pattern of extreme precipitation response to large-scale climate variability is similar to that of total precipitation but somewhat weaker in terms of statistical significance. An El Ni09o condition or high phase of PDO corresponds to a substantially increased likelihood of extreme precipitation over a vast region of southern North America but a decreased likelihood of extreme precipitation in the north, especially in the Great Plains and Canadian prairies and the Great Lakes/Ohio River valley.

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Zheng H X, Liu C M, 2003. Changes of annual runoff distribution in the headwater of the Yellow River basin.Progress in Geography, 22(6): 585-590. (in Chinese)Annual runoff distribution is connected with the flow recharge situation.With the impacts of climatic changes and increasing density of human activities, the hydrological regimes have been changed,including changes of annual runoff distribution, which may show effects on water resources management and ecological health.In this paper, indexes of unevenness, concentration, and variation have been defined and calculated according to gauge records of runoff in the last half-century.And then the changes of annual runoff distribution in the headwater of the Yellow River have been discussed.The results show that: 1) the annual runoff distribution in 1990s was quite similar to that of 1970s, while 1980s was almost the same to 1960s; 2) in 1990s, the annual runoff distribution had changed a lot, mainly because of runoff decrease in the wet season (July to Oct.); 3)Maqu station, which locates at the upper reaches, has a higher unevenness, concentration and relative variation rate but a smaller absolute variation rate than that of the Tangnaihai station.It should be noted that the indices used in this paper have correlations between each other, but have reflected the characters of annual runoff distribution by different ways.For further research, it is necessary to develop more suitable indices to describe the essence of the annual flow regime.The causes and effects of annual runoff distribution changes are all important issues for research considerations.

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Zou L Y, Ding Y H, Wang J, 2013. Spatial and temporal characteristics of heavy precipitation long-term changes in Northeast China and causation analysis.Journal of Natural Resources, 28(1): 137-147. (in Chinese)lt;p>Based on daily precipitation data from April to September within 45 years (1961-2005), this paper calculates the precipitation concentration degree (PCD) and precipitation concentration period (PCP) of the heavy rainfall, analyzes the temporal and spatial characteristic of heavy precipitation PCD and PCP, finally discusses the impact of PCD and PCP on circulation background features. The results showed that PCD in Northeast China has a very good correlation with heavy precipitation, which is a very good indication for heavy precipitation. The PCD was increased from east to west in spatial distribution. In view of the temporal, the mid-1960s to the early 1980s, we saw a low-value period of the PCD, and after 1991, PCD in Northeast China was mostly concentrated in high-value period. Heavy precipitation PCP had many low-values only in the 1970s. For most parts of Northeast China (except for northwestern part) PCD increased after the 1990s with a frequent increase in high value years while the changes in the northwestern are just opposite. When the PCD tended to be high, low pressure center existed through the region with the occurrence of high pressure center over the sea surface in the east. The existence of intersection of the west-trend air current with the southeast warm-moist air current is observed along with &quot;+ - +&quot; fluctuations between 40-50 &deg;N latitude. There is a rising vertical velocity center in the east of Northeast China when PCD is high and speed enhanced with the rise of the altitude (below 300 hPa). The water vapor mainly comes from the cold wet air of the Okhotsk Sea water. In Northeast China there is a water vapor flux divergence of the negative anomaly center, and the formation of the abnormal water vapor convergence zone is conducive to the emergence of heavy precipitation.</p>

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