Journal of Geographical Sciences >
Farmland changes and the driving forces in Yucheng, North China Plain
Received date: 2011-06-20
Revised date: 2011-11-01
Online published: 2012-05-04
Supported by
National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41071063; National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program), No.2012CB955304
Taking Yucheng, a typical agricultural county in Shandong Province as a case, this study applied Logistic regression models to spatially identify factors affecting farmland changes. Using two phases of high resolution imageries in 2001 and 2009, the study obtained the land use and farmland change data in 2001-2009. It was found that the farmland was reduced by 5.14% in the period, mainly due to the farmland conversion to forest land and built-up land, although part of forest land and unused land was converted to farmland. The results of Logistic regressions indicated that location, population growth and farmer income were main factors affecting the farmland conversion, while soil types and pro-curvature were main natural factors controlling the distribution of farmland changes. Regional differences and temporal-spatial variables of farmland changes affected fitting capability of the Logistic regression models. The ROC fitting test indicated that the Logistic regression models gave a good explanation of the regional land-use changes. Logistic regression analysis is a good tool to identify major factors affecting land use change by quantifying the contribution of each factor.
Key words： farmland changes; driving factors; Logistic regression model
CHEN Zhao, LU Changhe, FAN Lan . Farmland changes and the driving forces in Yucheng, North China Plain[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2012 , 22(3) : 563 -573 . DOI: 10.1007/s11442-012-0947-9
Bai Wanqi, Yan Jianzhong, Zhang Yili, 2004. Land use/land cover change and driving forces in the region ofupper reaches of the Dadu River. Progress in Geography, 23(1): 71-78. (in Chinese)
Bai Wanqi, Zhao Shidong, 2001. An analysis on driving force system of land use changes. Resources Science,23(3): 39-41. (in Chinese)
Deng Xiangzheng, Liu Jiyuan, Zhan Jinyan et al., 2004. Dynamic simulation on the spatio-temporal patterns ofland use change in Taibus County. Geographical Research, 23(2): 147-157. (in Chinese)
Garcia C V, Woodard P M, Titus S J et al., 1995. A logit model for predicting the daily occurrence of humancaused forest-fires. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 5(2): 101-111.
Huang B, Zhang L, Wu B, 2009. Spatiotemporal analysis of rural-urban land conversion. International Journal of
Geographical Information Science, 23(3): 379-398.
Huang Q H, Cai Y L, Peng J, 2007. Modeling the spatial pattern of farmland using GIS and multiple logistic regression: A case study of Maotiao River Basin, Guizhou Province, China. Environmental Modeling and Assessment,12(1): 55-61.
Hu Z Y, Lo C P, 2007. Modeling urban growth in Atlanta using logistic regression. Computers Environment and Urban Systems, 31(6): 667-688.
Jia Lin, Yang Linsheng, Ouyang Zhu et al., 2009. Assessment of the potential ecological risk of heavy metals inthe farmland soils in Yucheng City, Shandong Province. Journal of Agro-Environment Science, 28(11):2270-2276. (in Chinese)
Kong Xiangbin, Zhang Fengrong, Xu Yang et al., 2003. Arable-land change and its driving forces in intensiveagricultural region: The case of Quzhou County of Hebei Province. Resources Science, 25(3): 57-63. (in Chinese)
Lambin E F, Baulies X, Bockstael N et al., 1999. Land-use and land-cover change (LUCC): Implementationstrategy. In: IGBP Report No.48/IHDP Report No.10.
Liu Miao, Hu Yuanman, Chang Yu et al., 2007. Landscape change and its spatial driving force of farmlands in Wenchuan County of Minjiang River upper reach. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 18(3): 569-574. (in Chinese)
Liu Naiquan, Liu Xuehua, 2009. Labor mobility, planting structure adjustment and food security: Based on theclimate of basic farmland tree planting. South China Journal of Economics, (6): 15-24. (in Chinese)
Liu Rui, Zhu Daolin, Zhu Zhanqiang, 2009. Analysis of the driving forces of urban sprawl in Dezhou city basedon a Logistic regression model. Resources Science, 31(11): 1919-1926. (in Chinese)
Liu Xunhao, 2005. Analysis on the phenomena of “poplar expansion and crop shrink” in the North China Plain. Crop, (6): 1-3. (in Chinese)
Liu Zhiwu, Hu Heping, Tian Fuqiang et al., 2000. A computer system for irrigation water allocation in Yucheng City of Shandong Province. Journal of Natural Resources, 15(suppl.): 108-112. (in Chinese)
Long H L, Tang G P, Li X B et al., 2007. Socio-economic driving forces of land-use change in Kunshan, the Yangtze River Delta economic area of China. Journal of Environmental Management, 83(3): 351-364.
Manel S, Williams H C, Ormerod S J, 2001. Evaluating presence-absence models in ecology: The need to accountfor prevalence. Journal of Applied Ecology, 38(5): 921-931.
Meng Jijun, Yan Fen, 2009. Temporal and spatial variation of LUCC driving forces on the edge of metropolis: Acase study of Changping District. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis, 45(2): 311-318. (in Chinese)
Narumalani S, Jensen J R, Althausen J D et al., 1997. Aquatic macrophyte modelling using GIS and Logisticmultiple regression. Photogrammetric Engineering & Remote Sensing, 63(1): 41-49.
Neilson R P, 1995. A model for predicting continental scale vegetation distribution and water balance. Ecological Applications, 5(2): 362-385.
Nong Y, Du Q, 2011. Urban growth pattern modeling using logistic regression. Geo-Spatial Information Science,14(1): 62-67.
Pereira J M C, Itami R M, 1991. GIS-based habitat modeling using logistic multiple regression: A study of the Mt. Graham red squirrel. Photogrammetric Engineering & Remote Sensing, 57(11): 1475-1486.
Pontius R G, 2002. Statistical methods to partition effects of quantity and location during comparison of categoricalmaps at multiple resolution. Photogrammetric Engineering & Remote Sensing, 68(10): 1041-1049.
Pontius R G, Schneider L C, 2001. Land-cover change model validation by a ROC method for the Ipswich watershed, Massachusetts, USA. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 85(1-3): 239-248.
Secretariat IGBP, 2005. GLP (2005) Science Plan and Implementation Strategy. In: IGBP Report No.53/IHDP Report No.19.
Wang Jichuan, Guo Zhigang, 2001. Logistic Regression Models: Methods and Application. Beijing: Higher Education Press, 6-10. (in Chinese)
Wang Jieyong, Liu Yansui, Chen Yufu, 2010. Spatial expansion pattern and its dynamic mechanism of typicalrural settlements in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain. Geographical Research, 29(10): 1833-1840. (in Chinese)
Wu Lanfang, Ouyang Zhu, 2008. Nitrogen budget of farmland in crop-animal mixed farming system area: A casestudy of Yucheng County in Shandong Province. Journal of Agro-Environment Science, 27(4): 1312-1319. (in Chinese)
Xie Hualin, Li Bao, 2008. Driving forces analysis of land-use pattern changes based on logistic regression modelin the farming-pastoral zone: A case study of Ongiud Banner, Inner Mongolia. Geographical Research, 27(2):294-304. (in Chinese)
Xin L J, Li X B, Zhu H Y et al., 2009. China's potential of grain production due to changes in agricultural landutilization in recent years. Chinese Geographical Science, 19(2): 97-103.
Xu Yueqing, Li Xiubin, 2001. Analysis of dynamic change and driving forces of farmland in Hebei Province. Resources Science, 23(5): 28-32. (in Chinese)
Yu Rongrong, Wang Kelin, Yue Yuemin, 2010. Farmland changes and its driving forces analysis based on Logisticregression model in Hechi, northwestern Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. Resources and Environmentin the Yangtze Basin, 19(2): 186-191. (in Chinese)
Zeng Lingyun, Wang Jun, Wang Hongya, 2009. Analysis and simulation of cultivated land conversion and distributionin Beijing mountainous areas based on GIS and Logistic regression model. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis, 45(1): 165-170. (in Chinese)
Zhai R, Liu Y, 2009. Dynamic evolvement of agricultural system and typical patterns of modern agriculture incoastal China: A case of Suzhou. Chinese Geographical Science, 19(3): 249-257.
Zhang Xiaoyou, 1998. Flow sand moving patterns in semi-arid and semi-humid region: A case study from Yucheng city of Shandong Province. Eco-Agriculture Research, 6(3): 43-46. (in Chinese)
Zhang Xueru, Wang Wei, Verburg P H et al., 2009. Scenarios simulation of landuse pattern in Tangshan coastalzone. Resources Science, 31(8): 1392-1399. (in Chinese)
Zhao Zhanqing, Huang Lingling, Zhang Xudong, 2010. Driving forces for cover changes of Nverzhai Watershed, Zhangjiajie: Applications of a new AutoLogistic model. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 30(5): 1238-1246. (in Chinese)
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |