Journal of Geographical Sciences >
Temporal and spatial variations and statistical models of extreme runoff in Huaihe River Basin during 1956-2010
Received date: 2012-01-10
Revised date: 2012-03-12
Online published: 2012-12-15
Based on the daily runoff data from 20 hydrological stations above the Bengbu Sluice in the Huaihe River Basin during 1956-2010, run test, trend test and Mann-Kendall test are used to analyze the variation trend of annual maximum runoff series. The annual maximum series (AM) and peaks over threshold series (POT) are selected to describe the extreme distributions of generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). Temporal and spatial variations of extreme runoff in the Huaihe River Basin are analyzed. The results show that during the period 1956-2010 in the Huaihe River Basin, annual maximum runoff at 10 stations have a decreasing trend, while the other 10 stations have an unobvious increasing trend. The maximum runoff events almost occurred in the flood period during the 1960s and 1970s. The extreme runoff events in the Huaihe River Basin mainly occurred in the mainstream of the Huaihe River, Huainan mountainous areas, and Funiu mountainous areas. Through Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, GEV and GPD distributions can be well fitted with AM and POT series respectively. Percentile value method, mean excess plot method and certain numbers of peaks over threshold method are used to select threshold, and it is found that percentile value method is the best of all for extreme runoff in the Huaihe River Basin.
Key words： Huaihe River; extreme runoff; extreme distribution; threshold selection
XIA Jun, DU Hong, ZENG Sidong, SHE Dunxian, ZHANG Yongyong, YAN Ziqi, YE Yan . Temporal and spatial variations and statistical models of extreme runoff in Huaihe River Basin during 1956-2010[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2012 , 22(6) : 1045 -1060 . DOI: 10.1007/s11442-012-0982-6
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