Journal of Geographical Sciences >
Spatio-temporal variation of precipitation in the Three-River Headwater Region from 1961 to 2010
Received date: 2012-01-09
Revised date: 2012-12-05
Online published: 2013-06-15
Based on a monthly dataset of precipitation time series (1961-2010) from 12 meteorological stations across the Three-River Headwater Region (THRHR) of Qinghai Province, China, the spatio-temporal variation and abrupt change analysis of precipitation were examined by using moving average, linear regression, spline interpolation, the Mann-Kendall test and so on. Major conclusions were as follows. (1) The long-term annual and seasonal precipitation in the study area indicated an increasing trend with some oscillations during 1961-2010; however, the summer precipitation in the Lantsang (Lancang) River Headwater Region (LARHR), and the autumn precipitation in the Yangtze River Headwater Region (YERHR) of the THRHR decreased in the same period. (2) The amount of annual precipitation in the THRHR and its three sub-headwater regions was greater in the 1980s and 2000s. The springs were fairly wet after the 1970s, while the summers were relatively wet in the 1960s, 1980s and 2000s. In addition, the amount of precipitation in the autumn was greater in the 1970s and 1980s, but it was relatively less for the winter precipitation, except in the 1990s. (3) The normal values of spring, summer, winter and annual precipitation in the THRHR and its three sub-headwater regions all increased, but the normal value of summer precipitation in the LARHR had a negative trend and the normal value of winter precipitation declined in general. (4) The spring and winter precipitation increased in most of the THRHR. The summer, autumn and annual precipitation increased mainly in the marginal area of the west and north and decreased in the regions of Yushu, Zaduo, Jiuzhi and Banma. (5) The spring and winter precipitation in the THRHR and its three sub-headwater regions showed an abrupt change, except for the spring precipitation in the YARHR. The abrupt changes of spring precipitation were mainly in the late 1980s and early 1990s, while the abrupt changes of winter precipitation were primary in the mid- to late 1970s. This research would be helpful for further understanding the trends and periodicity of precipitation and for watershed-based water resource management in the THRHR.
YI Xiangsheng, LI Guosheng, YIN Yanyu . Spatio-temporal variation of precipitation in the Three-River Headwater Region from 1961 to 2010[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2013 , 23(3) : 447 -464 . DOI: 10.1007/s11442-013-1021-y
Beniston M, 2003. Climatic change in mountain regions: A review of possible impacts. Climatic Change, 59(1/2): 5-31.
Bergstrom S, Carlsson B, Gardelin M et al., 2001. Climate change impacts on runoff in Sweden: Assessments by global climate models, dynamical downscaling and hydrological modelling. Climate Research, 16(2): 101-112.
Brunetti M, Caloiero T, Coscarelli R et al., 2012. Precipitation variability and change in the Calabria region (Italy) from a high resolution daily dataset. International Journal of Climatology, 32(1): 57-73.
Chen X, Li L, Zhu X et al., 2009. Regional differences of climate change in Qinghai Province and its contributing factors. Advances in Climate Change Research, 5(5): 249-254. (in Chinese)
Chen Y, Takeuchi K, Xu C et al., 2006. Regional climate change and its effects on river runoff in the Tarim Basin, China. Hydrological Processes, 20(10): 2207-2216.
Fallot J M, Barry R G, Hoogstrate D, 1997. Variations of mean cold season temperature, precipitation and snow depths during the last 100 years in the Former Soviet Union (FSU). Hydrological Sciences Journal, 42(3): 301-327.
Fan J, Shao Q, Liu J et al., 2010. Assessment of effects of climate change and grazing activity on grassland yield in the Three Rivers Headwaters Region of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 170(1-4): 571-584.
Fan X, Wang M, 2011. Change trends of air temperature and precipitation over Shanxi Province, China. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 103(3/4): 519-531.
Gao G, Chen D, Xu C et al., 2007. Trend of estimated actual evapotranspiration over China during 1960-2002. Journal of Geophysical Research, 112: D11120.
Guo L, Wu R, Wang Q et al., 2008. Influence of climate change on grassland production in Xinghai County in the source region of Yangtze River. Chinese Journal of Grassland, 30(2): 5-10. (in Chinese)
Han Y, Kun A, Ma Z et al., 2011. Forty-eight-year climatology of air temperature and precipitation changes in Xilinhot, Xilingol steppe (Inner Mongolia), China. Grassland Science, 57(3): 168-172.
Hong Y, Nix H A, Hutchinson M F et al., 2005. Spatial interpolation of monthly mean climate data for China. International Journal of Climatology, 25(10): 1369-1379.
Hutchinson M, Gessler P, 1994. Splines - more than just a smooth interpolator. Geoderma, 62(1-3): 45-67.
Ip W C, Zhang L, Wong H et al., 2011. Multi-scale variability and trends of precipitation in North China. Water Resources and the Regime of Water Bodies, 38(1): 18-28.
Kendall M G, 1975. Rank Correlation Methods, 4th edn. London: Griffin Press.
Kundzewicz Z W, Robson A J, 2004. Change detection in hydrological records: A review of the methodology. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 49(1): 7-19.
Li J, Zhang J, Zhang C et al., 2006. Analyze and compare the spatial interpolation methods for climate factor. Pratacultural Science, 23(8): 6-11. (in Chinese)
Li L, Li F, Guo A et al., 2006. Study on the climate change trend and its catastrophe over Sanjiangyuan region in recent 43 years. Journal of Natural Resources, 21(1): 79-85. (in Chinese)
Li S, Li D, Zhao P et al., 2009. The climatic characteristics of vapor transportation in rainy season of the origin area of three rivers in Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 67(4): 591-598. (in Chinese)
Li Z, He Y, Wang C et al., 2011. Spatial and temporal trends of temperature and precipitation during 1960-2008 at the Hengduan Mountains, China. Quaternary International, 236(1/2): 127-142.
Lin Z, Zhao X, 1996. Spatial characteristics of changes in temperature and precipitation of the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Plateau. Science in China (Series D), 39(4): 442-448.
Liu J, Xu X, Shao Q, 2008. Grassland degradation in the “Three-River Headwaters” region, Qinghai Province. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 18(3): 259-273.
Lu Y, Liu X, Zhang Z, 2010. An analysis of characteristics and driving forces of land desertification in Sanjiangyuan region. Remote Sensing For Land & Resources, 86(suppl.): 72-76.
Luis M, Brunetti M, Gonzalez-Hidalgo J C et al., 2010. Changes in seasonal precipitation in the Iberian Peninsula during 1946-2005. Global and Planetary Change, 74(1): 27-33.
Mann H B, 1945. Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica, 13(3): 245-259.
Menzel L, Bürger G, 2002. Climate change scenarios and runoff response in the Mulde catchment (Southern Elbe, Germany). Journal of Hydrology, 267(1/2): 53-64.
Niu T, Chen L, Zhou Z, 2004. The characteristics of climate change over the Tibetan Plateau in the last 40 years and the detection of climatic jumps. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 21(2): 193-203.
Parthasarathy B, Munot A A, Kothawale D R, 1994. All-India monthly and seasonal rainfall series 1871-1993. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 49(4): 217-224.
Penalba O C, Vargas W M, 2004. Interdecadal and interannual variations of annual and extreme precipitation over central-northeastern Argentina. International Journal of Climatology, 24(12): 1565-1580.
Price D T, McKenney D W, Nalder I A et al., 2000. A comparison of two statistical methods for spatial interpolation of Canadian monthly mean climate data. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 101(2/3): 81-94.
Rodrigo F S, 2010. Changes in the probability of extreme daily precipitation observed from 1951 to 2002 in the Iberian Peninsula. International Journal of Climatology, 30(10): 1512-1525.
Shen Y, Wang G, Wu Q et al., 2002. The impact of future climate change on ecology and environments in the Changjiang-Yellow rivers source region. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 24(3): 308-314. (in Chinese)
Shi N, Yang Y, 1998. Main characteristics of East Asian summer/winter monsoon index for 1873-1996. Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, 21(2): 208-214. (in Chinese)
Shi Y, Shen Y, Hu R, 2002. Preliminary study on signal, impact and foreground of climatic shift from warm-dry to warm-humid in the northwest China. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 24(3): 219-226. (in Chinese)
Tang H, Yang X, Wang X et al., 2007. Analyses of precipitation change in the source regions of three rivers during 1956-2004. Plateau Meteorology, 26(1): 47-54. (in Chinese)
Tang M, Bai C, Feng S et al., 1998. Climate abrupt change in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau in recent century and its relation to astronomical factors. Plateau Meteorology, 17(3): 250-257. (in Chinese)
Thornton P E, Running S W, White M A, 1997. Generating surfaces of daily meteorological variables over large regions of complex terrain. Journal of Hydrology, 190(3/4): 214-251.
Toros H, 2012. Spatio-temporal precipitation change assessments over Turkey. International Journal of Climatology, 32(9): 1310-1325.
Wang J, 2007. Analysis of the characteristics of water resources in the Sanjiangyuan of Qinghai Province. Journal of Water Resources & Water Engineering, 18(1): 91-94. (in Chinese)
Wang Q, Lai D, Jing Z et al., 2005. The resources, ecological environment and sustainable development in the source regions of the Yangtze, Huanghe and Yalu Tsangpo rivers. Journal of Lanzhou University (Natural Sciences), 41(4): 31-37. (in Chinese)
Wang W, Shao Q, Peng S et al., 2011. Spatial and temporal characteristics of changes in precipitation during 1957-2007 in the Haihe River basin, China. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 25(7): 881-895.
Wang Z, Luo Y, Liu C et al., 2011. Spatial and temporal variations of precipitation in Haihe River Basin, China: Six decades of measurements. Hydrological Processes, 25(18): 2916-2923.
Wei F, 2007. Modern Technology of Statistics, Diagnosis and Forecast for Climate, 2nd edn. Beijing: China Meteorological Press. (in Chinese)
Wei W W S, 1990. Time Series Analysis: Univariate and Multivariate Methods. California: Addison-Wesley Redwood City Press.
Wu S, Yin Y, Zheng D et al., 2006. Moisture conditions and climate trends in China during the period 1971-2000. International Journal of Climatology, 26(2): 193-206.
Xu K, Milliman J D, Xu H, 2010. Temporal trend of precipitation and runoff in major Chinese rivers since 1951. Global and Planetary Change, 73(3/4): 219-232.
Yamamoto R, Iwashima T, Sanga N K, 1985. Climatic jump: a hypothesis in climate diagnosis. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 63: 1157-1160.
Yang J, Ding Y, Chen R et al., 2003. The fluctuation of dry and wet climate boundary and its causal analyses in China. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 61(3): 364-373. (in Chinese)
Yang J, Ding Y, Chen R et al., 2006. Comprehensive Research of Ecological Environment Change in the Yangtze-Yellow Rivers Source Regions. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, pp. 27-59. (in Chinese)
Yi X, Li G, Yin Y, 2012. Temperature variation and abrupt change analysis in the Three-River Headwaters Region during 1961-2010. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 22(3): 451-469.
Yu S, Lin X, Xu X, 2003. The climatic change in northwest China in recent 50 years. Climatic and Environmental Research, 8(1): 9-18. (in Chinese)
Zhai P, Sun A, Ren F et al., 1999. Changes of climate extremes in China. Climatic Change, 42(1): 203-218.
Zhang Q, Xu C Y, Becker S et al., 2009. Trends and abrupt changes of precipitation maxima in the Pearl River basin, China. Atmospheric Science Letters, 10(2): 132-144.
Zhang S, Hua D, Meng X et al., 2011. Climate change and its driving effect on the runoff in the “Three-River Headwaters” region. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 21(6): 963-978.
Zhao L, Ping C L, Yang D et al., 2004. Changes of climate and seasonally frozen ground over the past 30 years in Qinghai-Xizang (Tibetan) Plateau, China. Global and Planetary Change, 43(1/2): 19-31.
Zhou C, Jia S, Yan H et al., 2005. Changing trend of water resources in Qinghai Province from 1956 to 2000. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 27(3): 432-437. (in Chinese)
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |