Man-Land Relationship

Simulating dynamic urban expansion at regional scale in Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan Metropolitan Area

  • Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China

Received date: 2010-08-09

  Revised date: 2010-09-17

  Online published: 2011-04-15

Supported by

The Young Scientist Fund of National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40901224; National Basic Research Program of China, No.2010CB950900; Opening Foundation of State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, No.2009KFJJ005; Opening Foundation of State Key Lab of Resources and Environmental Information System, No.A0725; Swedish Research Links, No.2006-24724-44416-13


Dynamic urban expansion simulation at regional scale is one of the important research methodologies in Land Use/Cover Change (LUCC) and global environmental change influenced by urbanization. However, previous studies indicate that the single urban expansion simulation for future scenarios at local scale cannot meet the requirements for characterizing and interpreting the interactive mechanisms of regional urbanization and global environmental change. This study constructed a regional Dynamic Urban Expansion Model (Reg-DUEM) suitable for different scenarios by integrating the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Cellular Automaton (CA) model. Firstly we analyzed the temporal and spatial characteristics of urban expansion and acquired a prior knowledge rules using land use/cover change datasets of Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan metropolitan area. The future urban expansion under different scenarios is then simulated based on a baseline model, economic models, policy models and the structural adjustment model. The results indicate that Reg-DUEM has good reliability for a non-linear expansion simulation at regional scale influenced by macro-policies. The simulating results show that future urban expansion patterns from different scenarios of the metropolitan area have the tremendous spatio-temporal differences. Future urban expansion will shift quickly from Beijing metropolis to the periphery of Tianjin and Tangshan city along coastal belt.

Cite this article

KUANG Wenhui . Simulating dynamic urban expansion at regional scale in Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan Metropolitan Area[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2011 , 21(2) : 317 -330 . DOI: 10.1007/s11442-011-0847-4


Batty M, 2008. The size, scale, and shape of cities. Science, 319(5864): 769-771.
Batty M, Longley P, 1994. Fractal Cities. London: Academic Press.
Churkina G, 2008. Modeling the carbon cycle of urban systems. Ecological Modeling, 216(2): 107-113.
Fan Jie, 2008. Regional Overall Planning in Jing-Jin-Ji Metropolitan Area. Beijing: Science Press. (in Chinese)
Grimm N B, Faeth S H, Golubiewski N C et al., 2008. Global change and the ecology of cities. Science,319(5864): 756-760.
He C Y, Norio O, Zhang Q F et al., 2006. Modeling urban expansion scenarios by coupling cellular automatamodel and system dynamic model in Beijing, China. Applied Geography, 26(3/4): 323-345.
IHDP, 2005. Urbanization and global environment change (IHDP Report No. 15). International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change, 1-60.
Jiang D, Zhang D F, Xu X L et al., 2008. Integrated evaluation of urban development suitability based on remote sensing and GIS techniques: A case study in Jing-Jin-Ji area, China. Sensors, 8: 5975-5986.
Li Xia, Yeh A G O, 2001. The application of principal analysis and cellular automata in the spatial decision and urban simulation. Science in China (Series D), 31(8): 683-690.
Liu Jiyuan, 1996. Macro-scale Survey and Dynamic Study of Natural Resources and Environment of China by Remote Sensing. Beijing: China Science and Technology Press. (in Chinese)
Liu Jiyuan, Buheaosier, 2000. Study on spatial-temporal feature of modern land-use change in China: Using remote sensing techniques. Quaternary Sciences, 20(3): 229-239. (in Chinese)
Liu Jiyuan, Zhang Zengxiang, Xu Xinliang et al., 2010. Spatial patterns and driving forces of land use change in China in the early 21st century. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 20(4): 483-494.
Liu Jiyuan, Zhang Zengxiang, Zhuang Dafang, 2003. A study on the spatial-temporal dynamic changes of land-use and driving forces analyses of China in the 1990s. Geographical Research, 22(1): 1-12. (in Chinese)
Lu Dadao, 2007. Urbanization process and spatial sprawl in China. Urban Planning Forum, (4): 47-52. (in Chinese)
Montgomery M R, 2008. The urban transformation of the developing world. Science, 319(5864): 761-764.
Pijanowski B C, Brown D G, Shellito B A et al., 2002. Using neural networks and GIS to forecast land use changes: A land transformation model. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 26(6): 553-575.
Svirejeva-Hopkins A, Schellnhuber H J, 2008. Urban expansion and its contribution to the regional carbon emissions using the model based on the population density distribution. Ecological Modeling, 216(2): 208-216.
Tan M H, Li X B, Xie H et al., 2005. Urban land expansion and arable land loss in China: A case study of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Land Use Policy, 22(3): 187-196.
Wang Huijun, 2009. Strengthening environmental simulation research at regional scale to improve the recognitions of uncertain factors from climate change.
[].(in Chinese)
Yao Shimou, Wang Chen, Zhang Luocheng et al., 2008. The influencing factors of resources and environments in the process of urbanization of China. Progress in Geography, 27(3): 94-100. (in Chinese)
Zhao R Q, Huang X J, Xu H et al., 2009. Progress in the research of carbon cycle and management of urban system. Journal of Natural Resources, 24(10): 1847-1859.
Zhou Chenghu, Sun Zhanli, Xie Yichun, 1999. The Research of Geographical Cellular Automata. Beijing: Science Press. (in Chinese)
Zhu Guangjing, 2009. Lu Dadao researcher explains “the background and trend of metropolitan area”. Workshop of technical and science exchange month of Beijing city: integrative development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area.
[]. (in Chinese)