Journal of Geographical Sciences ›› 2015, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (8): 991-1002.doi: 10.1007/s11442-015-1215-6

• Orginal Article • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Relational pattern of urbanization and economic development: Parameter re-evaluation of the Chenery model

Mingxing CHEN1(), Zhipeng TANG1, Yongping BAI2, Xiaoping ZHANG3,*()   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    2. College of Geography and Environment Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730000, China
    3. College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2014-07-01 Accepted:2014-11-02 Online:2015-08-15 Published:2015-07-17
  • Contact: Xiaoping ZHANG;
  • About author:

    Author: Chen Mingxing (1982-), PhD and Associate Professor, specialized in urbanization and regional development.

  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41001080;No.41271184;No.40971075;No.40771054


Research has shown that there has been a significant change in the quantitative relationship between urbanization and economic development over the past 50 years. As a result of this change, the Chenery model is no longer capable of performing a comparative analysis of these parameters. We carried out a regression analysis of the normal form of the relation between urbanization and economic development on the basis of the Chenery model. We used empirical data from 149 countries and regions from 1990 to 2009 and adopted the double logarithmic model, introducing a time series variable for urbanization. From 1990 to 2009, with a per capita gross national income remaining between USD 1000 and 10,000, the urbanization rate changed from 17.78 to 60.36% and the relational matching data changed accordingly, although the upper limit of the rate of urbanization remained at about 75%. Urbanization in countries with a smaller population size was more affected by economic development than urbanization in countries with large and medium sized populations.

Key words: Chenery model, economic development, parameter re-evaluation, urbanization