Regional changes of the severities of meteorological droughts and floods in India

doi:10.1007/s11442-011-0838-5

Abstract

Abstract:

The most important climatological feature of the South Asian region is the occurrence of monsoons. With increasing concerns about climate change, the need to understand the nature and variability of such climatic conditions and to evaluate possible future changes becomes increasingly important. This paper deals with long-term above and below normal monsoon precipitation causing prolong meteorological droughts and floods in India. Five regions across India comprising variable climates were selected for the study. Apart from long-term trends for individual regions, long-term trends were also calculated for the Indian region as a whole. The results show that intra-region variability for monsoon precipitation is large and there are increasing numbers of meteorological summer droughts. Meteorological monsoon floods were found to have negative long-term trends everywhere except in the peninsular Indian region. The results overall suggest generic conclusions concerning the region-wide long-term trend of severity of monsoon droughts and floods in India and their spatial variability.

Key words: India, monsoon, meteorological drought, meteorological flood, trend

Indrani Pal, Abir Al-Tabbaa. Regional changes of the severities of meteorological droughts and floods in India[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2011, 21(2): 195-206.

References

Bhalme H N, Mooley D A, 1980. Large scale droughts/floods and monsoon circulation. Monthly Weather Review,108: 1197-1211.
Bosilovich M G, Schubert S, Walker G, 2005. Global changes of the water cycle intensity. Journal of Climate, 18: 1591-1607.
Cislaghi M, De Michele C, Ghezzi A et al., 2005. Statistical assessment of trends and oscillations in rainfall dynamics:Analysis of long daily Italian series. Atmospheric Research, 77: 188-202.
Cruz R V, Harasawa H, Lal M et al., 2007. Asia. Climate change 2007: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. In:Parry M L, Canziani O F, Palutikof J P et al. (eds.), Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth AssessmentReport of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press, 469-506.
Fisk D, 1997. Climate change and its impacts: A global perspective. In: Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions, The Met Office Hadley Centre Brochure, UK.
Goswami B N, Venugopal V, Sengupta D et al., 2006. Increasing trend of extreme rain events over India in a warming environment. Science, 314: 1442-1445.
Kruger A C, 2006. Observed trends in daily precipitation indices in South Africa: 1910-2004. International Journal of Climatology, 26: 2275-2285.
Kumar A, Yang F, Goddard L et al., 2004. Differing trends in the tropical surface temperatures and precipitation over land and oceans. Journal of Climate, 17: 653-664.
Kumar P, Rupa Kumar K, Rajeevan M et al., 2007. On the recent strengthening of the relationship between ENSO and northeast monsoon rainfall over South Asia. Climate Dynamics, 28(6): 649-660.
Manton M J, Della-Marta P M, Haylock M R et al., 2001. Trends in extreme daily rainfall and temperature in Southeast Asia and the South Pacific: 1961-1998. International Journal of Climatology, 21: 269-284.
Murphy B F, Timbal B, 2008. A review of recent climate variability and climate change in south-eastern Australia.International Journal of Climatology, 28(7): 859-879.
New M, Todd M, Hulme M et al., 2001. Precipitation measurements and trends in the twentieth century. International Journal of Climatology, 21: 1899-1922.
Pal I, Al-Tabbaa A, 2008. Trends in seasonal precipitation extremes: An indicator of climate change. In: Final Proc. 7th European Conference on Applied Climatology (ECAC) 29 September-03 October 2008, Amsterdam,The Netherlands.
Pal I, Al-Tabbaa A, 2009. Trends in seasonal precipitation extremes: An indicator of ‘Climate Change’ in Kerala,India. Journal of Hydrology, 367: 62-69.
Pal I, Al-Tabbaa A, 2010a. Monsoon rainfall extreme indices and tendencies from 1954-2003 in Kerala, India.Climatic Change. (in press)
Pal I, Al-Tabbaa A, 2010b. Regional changes in extreme monsoon rainfall deficit and excess in India. Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans, 49: 206-214.
Pal I, Al-Tabbaa A, 2010c. Long-term changes and variability of monthly extreme temperatures in India. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 100(1): 45-56.
Palmer T N, Raisanen J, 2002. Quantifying the risk of extreme seasonal precipitation events in a changing climate. Nature, 415: 512-514.
Pant G B, Rupa Kumar K, 1997. Climates of South Asia. John Wiley and Sons, England.
Sen Roy S, Balling J R, 2004. Trends in extreme daily precipitation indices in India. International Journal of Climatology, 24: 457-466.
Soman M K, Krishna Kumar K, Singh N, 1988. Decreasing trend in the rainfall of Kerala. Current Science, 57(1): 7-12.

[1]	MA Dujuan, WU Xiaodan, WANG Jingping, MU Cuicui. The spatiotemporal scale effect on vegetation interannual trend estimates based on satellite products over Qinghai-Tibet Plateau [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2023, 33(5): 924-944.
[2]	LUO Dengnan, HU Zhongmin, DAI Licong, HOU Guolong, DI Kai, LIANG Minqi, CAO Ruochen, ZENG Xiang. An overall consistent increase of global aridity in 1970-2018 [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2023, 33(3): 449-463.
[3]	ZHANG Yu, ZHANG Yangjian, CHENG Liang, CONG Nan, ZHENG Zhoutao, HUANG Ke, ZHANG Jianshuang, ZHU Yixuan, GAO Jie, SUN Yihan. Have China’s drylands become wetting in the past 50 years? [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2023, 33(1): 99-120.
[4]	ZHANG Zhiping, LIU Jianbao, CHEN Shengqian, ZHANG Shanjia, JIA Xin, ZHOU Aifeng, ZHAO Jiaju, CHEN Jie, SHEN Zhongwei, CHEN Fahu. Anthropogenic origin of a change in the fire-climate relationship in northern China after ~2000 yr BP: Evidence from a 15,500-year black carbon record from Dali Lake [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2022, 32(6): 1136-1156.
[5]	Ionut MINEA, Daniel BOICU, Oana-Elena CHELARIU, Marina IOSUB, Andrei ENEA. Assessment of recharge capacity potential of groundwater using comparative multi-criteria decision analysis approaches [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2022, 32(4): 735-756.
[6]	MA Qifei, JIA Peng, SUN Caizhi, KUANG Haibo. Dynamic evolution trend of comprehensive transportation green efficiency in China: From a spatio-temporal interaction perspective [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2022, 32(3): 477-498.
[7]	ZENG Xueli, LIU Yu, SONG Huiming, LI Qiang, CAI Qiufang, FANG Congxi, SUN Changfeng, REN Meng. Tree-ring-based drought variability in northern China over the past three centuries [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2022, 32(2): 214-224.
[8]	GUO Mengyao, SHE Dunxian, ZHANG Liping, LI Lingcheng, YANG Zong-Liang, HONG Si. Attribution of trends in meteorological drought during 1960-2016 over the Loess Plateau, China [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2021, 31(8): 1123-1139.
[9]	LI Yu, HAN Qin, HAO Lu, ZHANG Xinzhong, CHEN Dawei, ZHANG Yuxin, XU Lingmei, YE Wangting, PENG Simin, LI Yichan, FENG Zhuowen, LIU Hebin. Paleoclimatic proxies from global closed basins and the possible beginning of Anthropocene [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2021, 31(6): 765-784.
[10]	Mian Sabir HUSSAIN, Inhye HEO, Sujeong IM, Seungho LEE. Effect of shipping activity on warming trends in the Canadian Arctic [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2021, 31(3): 369-388.
[11]	ZHANG Xuhui, LI Huan, GONG Zheng, ZHOU Zeng, DAI Weiqi, WANG Lizhu, Samuel DARAMOLA. Method for UAV-based 3D topography reconstruction of tidal creeks [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2021, 31(12): 1852-1872.
[12]	LIU Zhilin, DING Yinping, JIAO Yuanmei. Impact of changes in precipitation pattern on food supply in a monsoon interlacing area and its mechanism: A case study of Yunnan Province [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2021, 31(10): 1490-1506.
[13]	WANG Shaojian, GAO Shuang, HUANG Yongyuan, SHI Chenyi. Spatiotemporal evolution of urban carbon emission performance in China and prediction of future trends [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(5): 757-774.
[14]	ZHAO Ting, BAI Hongying, YUAN Yuan, DENG Chenhui, QI Guizeng, ZHAI Danping. Spatio-temporal differentiation of climate warming (1959-2016) in the middle Qinling Mountains of China [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(4): 657-668.
[15]	LI Tuoyu, ZHANG Jifeng, WU Yongqiu, DU Shisong, MO Duowen, LIAO Yinan, CHEN Zhitong, LIU Jianbao, LI Qing. Holocene aeolian activities linked to Indian summer monsoon in the middle reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(12): 2002-2014.