Journal of Geographical Sciences ›› 2023, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (8): 1725-1746.doi: 10.1007/s11442-023-2150-6

• Special Issue: Human-environment interactions and Ecosystems • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Estimation of maize yield incorporating the synergistic effect of climatic and land use change in Jilin, China

WEN Xinyuan1(), LIU Dianfeng1,2,*(), QIU Mingli1, WANG Yinjie1, NIU Jiqiang3, LIU Yaolin1   

  1. 1. School of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan 400072, China
    2. Key Laboratory of Digital Cartography and Land Information Application Engineering, Ministry of Natural Resources, Wuhan 430072, China
    3. Key Laboratory for Synergistic Prevention of Water and Soil Environmental Pollution, Xinyang Normal University, Xinyang 464000, Henan, China
  • Received:2022-11-30 Accepted:2023-05-06 Online:2023-08-25 Published:2023-08-29
  • Contact: * Liu Dianfeng (1985-), Professor, specialized in land use optimization and simulation. E-mail:
  • About author:Wen Xinyuan (1999-), Master Candidate, specialized in land use change and sustainable development. E-mail:
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China(42171414);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41771429);The Open Fund of Key Laboratory for Synergistic Prevention of Water and Soil Environmental Pollution(KLSPWSEP-A02)


Yield forecasting can give early warning of food risks and provide solid support for food security planning. Climate change and land use change have direct influence on regional yield and planting area of maize, but few studies have examined their synergistic impact on maize production. In this study, we propose an analysis framework based on the integration of system dynamic (SD), future land use simulation (FLUS) and a statistical crop model to predict future maize yield variation in response to climate change and land use change in a phaeozem region of central Jilin province, China. The results show that the cultivated land is likely to reduce by 862.84 km2 from 2030 to 2050. Nevertheless, the total maize yield is expected to increase under all four RCP scenarios due to the promotion of per hectare maize yield. Among the scenarios, RCP4.5 is the most beneficial to maize production, with a doubled total yield in 2050. Notably, the yield gap between different counties will be further widened, which necessitates the differentiated policies of agricultural production and farmland protection, e.g., strengthening cultivated land protection and crop management in low-yield areas, and taking adaptation and mitigation measures to coordinate climate change and production.

Key words: maize yield forecast, land use simulation, RCP scenarios, models