
Coupled Human and Natural Cube: A novel framework for analyzing the multiple interactions between humans and nature
LIU Haimeng, FANG Chuanglin, FANG Kai
Journal of Geographical Sciences ›› 2020, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (3) : 355-377.
Coupled Human and Natural Cube: A novel framework for analyzing the multiple interactions between humans and nature
Understanding the interactions between humans and nature in the Anthropocene is central to the quest for both human wellbeing and global sustainability. However, the time-space compression, long range interactions, and reconstruction of socio-economic structures at the global scale all pose great challenges to the traditional analytical frameworks of human-nature systems. In this paper, we extend the connotation of coupled human and natural systems (CHANS) and their four dimensions—space, time, appearance, and organization, and propose a novel framework: “Coupled Human and Natural Cube” (CHNC) to explain the coupling mechanism between humans and the natural environment. Our proposition is inspired by theories based on the human-earth areal system, telecoupling framework, planetary urbanization, and perspectives from complexity science. We systematically introduce the concept, connotation, evolution rules, and analytical dimensions of the CHNC. Notably there exist various “coupling lines” in the CHNC, connecting different systems and elements at multiple scales and forming a large, nested, interconnected, organic system. The rotation of the CHNC represents spatiotemporal nonlinear fluctuations in CHANS in different regions. As a system continually exchanges energy with the environment, a critical phase transition occurs when fluctuations reach a certain threshold, leading to emergent behavior of the system. The CHNC has four dimensions—pericoupling and telecoupling, syncoupling and lagcoupling, apparent coupling and hidden coupling, and intra-organization coupling and inter-organizational coupling. We mainly focus on the theoretical connotation, research methods, and typical cases of telecoupling, lagcoupling, hidden coupling, and inter-organizational coupling, and put forward a human-nature coupling matrix to integrate multiple dimensions. In summary, the CHNC provides a more comprehensive and systematic research paradigm for understanding the evolution and coupling mechanism of the human-nature system, which expands the analytical dimension of CHANS. The CHNC also provides a theoretical support for formulating regional, sustainable development policies for human wellbeing.
Coupled Human and Natural Cube / human-environment systems / social-ecological systems / pericoupling and telecoupling / climate change / urbanization / human activity / complexity science / sustainability science {{custom_keyword}} /
Table 1 Comparison of different coupling types in the Coupled Human and Natural Cube |
Conceptual framework | Analysis dimensions | Coupling type | Concept | Diagram | Research methods | Typical cases |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
“CHNC” | Space | Intracoupling | Interaction between subsystems, as well as the elements within the particular areal system. | ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() | Statistics, coupling degree, coupling coordination degree, etc. | Omitted |
Telecoupling | Interaction between humans and nature in different remote areal systems, or in different spatial scales. Two categories: Multi- regional telecoupling (MRTC) and multi- scale telecoupling (MSTC). | Multi-region input-output model, spatial Durbin model, hierarchical spatial autoregressive model, network analysis, material flow analysis, energy flow analysis, etc. | MRTC: Water diversion, industry transfer, tourism, international trade, technology transfer, investment; MSTC: Local responses to climate change, global diffusion of local pollution | |||
Time | Syncoupling | Interaction effect between humans and nature occurring in a similar time section. | Statistics, coupling degree, coupling coordination degree, time series analysis, etc. | Omitted | ||
Lagcoupling | Interaction and feedback between humans and nature in different time periods; the causal chain has relative long time intervals. | Time-delay model, dynamic general equilibrium model, multi-level temporal autoregressive modeling, etc. | The time lag effect of environmental investment on local eco-environment; the 1.5 C global warming target in the Paris Agreement has important effect for current policy. | |||
Appear- ance | Apparent coupling | Direct interaction between subsystems; elements within the CHANS and causal chain are A→B | Correlations analysis, linear regression analysis, coupling degree, coupling coordination degree, etc. | Omitted | ||
Hidden coupling | Interaction between elements or systems is not direct, but works indirectly through a mediator or through an implied system or element, and the causal chain is A→C→B or A(C)→B. | Mediating effects model, multi-region input-output model, environmental footprint, life cycle assessment, etc. | A→C→B: Urbanization has indirect effects on carbon emissions by influencing the structure and intensity of energy consumption; A(C)→B: Pollutants, carbon emissions, virtual water hidden in international trade. | |||
Organization | Intra- organizational coupling | Interaction between humans and nature in a particular organization. | Statistics, game theory, etc. | Omitted | ||
Inter- organizational coupling | Complex interest game to tradeoff human development and environment between different organizations and stakeholders. | Game theory, multi-agent modeling, complex adaptive systems theory, multicenter self-organization theory, complex networks, big data analysis, etc. | Stakeholders such as government, farmers, medias and NGOs have different roles and behavioral responses in ecological compensation. |
Table 2 Human-nature coupling matrix |
Analysis dimension | Space | Time | Appearance | Organization |
---|---|---|---|---|
Space | Intracoupling or telecoupling | Intracoupling or telecoupling + syncoupling or lagcoupling | Intracoupling or telecoupling + apparent or hidden coupling | Intracoupling or telecoupling + intra-organizational or inter- organizational coupling |
Time | Syncoupling or lagcoupling + intracoupling or telecoupling | Syncoupling or lagcoupling | Syncoupling or lagcoupling + apparent or hidden coupling | Syncoupling or lagcoupling + intra-organizational or inter-organizational coupling |
Appearance | Apparent or hidden coupling + intracoupling or telecoupling | Apparent or hidden coupling + syncoupling or lagcoupling | Apparent or hidden coupling | Apparent or hidden coupling + intra-organizational or inter-organizational coupling |
Organization | Intra-organizational or inter-organizational coupling + intracoupling or telecoupling | Intra-organizational or inter-organizational coupling + syncoupling or lagcoupling | Intra-organizational or inter- organizational coupling + apparent or hidden coupling | Intra-organizational or inter-organizational coupling |
[1] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[2] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[3] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[4] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[5] |
A great challenge for ecology in the coming decades is to understand the role humans play in eco-evolutionary dynamics. If, as emerging evidence shows, rapid evolutionary change affects ecosystem functioning and stability, current rapid environmental change and its evolutionary effects might have significant implications for ecological and human wellbeing on a relatively short time scale. Humans are major selective agents with potential for unprecedented evolutionary consequences for Earth's ecosystems, especially as cities expand rapidly. In this review, I identify emerging hypotheses on how urbanization drives eco-evolutionary dynamics. Studying how human-driven micro-evolutionary changes interact with ecological processes offers us the chance to advance our understanding of eco-evolutionary feedbacks and will provide new insights for maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem function over the long term.
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[6] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[7] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[8] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[9] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[10] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[11] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[12] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[13] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[14] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[15] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[16] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[17] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[18] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[19] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[20] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[21] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[22] |
This paper distills core lessons about how researchers (scientists, engineers, planners, etc.) interested in promoting sustainable development can increase the likelihood of producing usable knowledge. We draw the lessons from both practical experience in diverse contexts around the world and from scholarly advances in understanding the relationships between science and society. Many of these lessons will be familiar to those with experience in crafting knowledge to support action for sustainable development. However, few are included in the formal training of researchers. As a result, when scientists and engineers first venture out of the laboratory or library with the goal of linking their knowledge with action, the outcome has often been ineffectiveness and disillusionment. We therefore articulate here a core set of lessons that we believe should become part of the basic training for researchers interested in crafting usable knowledge for sustainable development. These lessons entail at least four things researchers should know, and four things they should do. The knowing lessons involve understanding the coproduction relationships through which knowledge making and decision making shape one another in social-environmental systems. We highlight the lessons that emerge from examining those coproduction relationships through the ICAP lens, viewing them from the perspectives of Innovation systems, Complex systems, Adaptive systems, and Political systems. The doing lessons involve improving the capacity of the research community to put its understanding of coproduction into practice. We highlight steps through which researchers can help build capacities for stakeholder collaboration, social learning, knowledge governance, and researcher training.
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[23] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[24] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[25] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[26] |
China's water resources are under increasing pressure from socioeconomic development, diet shifts, and climate change. Agriculture still concentrates most of the national water withdrawal. Moreover, a spatial mismatch in water and arable land availability--with abundant agricultural land and little water resources in the north--increases water scarcity and results in virtual water transfers from drier to wetter regions through agricultural trade. We use a general equilibrium welfare model and linear programming optimization to model interprovincial food trade in China. We combine these trade flows with province-level estimates of commodities' virtual water content to build China's domestic and foreign virtual water trade network. We observe large variations in agricultural water-use efficiency among provinces. In addition, some provinces particularly rely on irrigation vs. rainwater. We analyze the virtual water flow patterns and the corresponding water savings. We find that this interprovincial network is highly connected and the flow distribution is relatively homogeneous. A significant share of water flows is from international imports (20%), which are dominated by soy (93%). We find that China's domestic food trade is efficient in terms of rainwater but inefficient regarding irrigation, meaning that dry, irrigation-intensive provinces tend to export to wetter, less irrigation-intensive ones. Importantly, when incorporating foreign imports, China's soy trade switches from an inefficient system to a particularly efficient one for saving water resources (20 km(3)/y irrigation water savings, 41 km(3)/y total). Finally, we identify specific provinces (e.g., Inner Mongolia) and products (e.g., corn) that show high potential for irrigation productivity improvements.
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[27] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[28] |
We report here a novel method for blocking acute platelet deposition at the site of vessel injury by molecularly masking thrombogenic vascular wall proteins with covalently attached polyethylene glycol (PEG). To evaluate this technique, blood containing 111In-labeled platelets was perfused over damaged human placental arteries for 2 min at a wall shear rate of 200 s-1. Denuded vessel segments were incubated for 30, 15, 5, and 1 min with a solution of either reactive PEG-diisocyanate (PEG-ISO) or nonreactive PEG-dihydroxyl (PEG-OH). Vessels treated with PEG-ISO for 1 min exhibited 87 +/- 12% less platelet deposition (p < 0.01) than untreated control vessels, and this reduction did not vary significantly among treatment times, indicating that this reaction occurs rapidly enough to be clinically applicable. To investigate the duration of this thrombotic barrier, denuded pig carotid arteries were treated with reactive PEG-ISO for 1 min, perfused with plasma for 30 min, and then perfused with blood containing radiolabeled platelets. PEG-ISO-treated arteries exhibited 84 +/- 9% less platelet deposition (p < 0.05) than untreated controls. These data demonstrate that damaged arterial surfaces can be rendered resistant to platelet deposition after short contact periods with reactive PEG. Molecular PEG barriers ultimately might find application following vascular procedures to sterically inhibit blood cell interaction with damaged vascular surfaces.
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[29] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[30] |
Human institutions--ways of organizing activities--affect the resilience of the environment. Locally evolved institutional arrangements governed by stable communities and buffered from outside forces have sustained resources successfully for centuries, although they often fail when rapid change occurs. Ideal conditions for governance are increasingly rare. Critical problems, such as transboundary pollution, tropical deforestation, and climate change, are at larger scales and involve nonlocal influences. Promising strategies for addressing these problems include dialogue among interested parties, officials, and scientists; complex, redundant, and layered institutions; a mix of institutional types; and designs that facilitate experimentation, learning, and change.
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[31] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[32] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[33] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[34] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[35] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[36] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[37] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[38] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[39] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[40] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[41] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[42] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[43] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[44] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[45] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[46] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[47] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[48] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[49] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[50] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[51] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[52] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[53] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[54] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[55] |
Although most of wealth and innovation have been the result of human interaction and cooperation, we are not yet able to quantitatively predict the spatial distributions of three main elements of cities: population, roads, and socioeconomic interactions. By a simple model mainly based on spatial attraction and matching growth mechanisms, we reveal that the spatial scaling rules of these three elements are in a consistent framework, which allows us to use any single observation to infer the others. All numerical and theoretical results are consistent with empirical data from ten representative cities. In addition, our model can also provide a general explanation of the origins of the universal super- and sub-linear aggregate scaling laws and accurately predict kilometre-level socioeconomic activity. Our work opens a new avenue for uncovering the evolution of cities in terms of the interplay among urban elements, and it has a broad range of applications.
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[56] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[57] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[58] |
Tandem mass spectrometry of a mixture of two peptides that differ from each other by a single mass unit due to mutation is presented. The mutant beta-globin of hemoglobin Hoshida is present along with the normal counterpart, and the amino acid substitution of glutamine for glutamic acid is located within tryptic peptide T5 of M(r) 2057. 9. The mass of the mutated peptide is 1 u lower. In the isotopic cluster for the doubly charged ion of the peptide T5, the resolved ion with mass of 1030.0 represents the normal peptide with 93 (12)C atoms and the mutated one with 92 (12)C and one (13)C atoms. Collision-induced dissociation (CID) of this composite ion identified the mutation by presenting a key fragment derived from the (12)C-only mutant peptide, as reported in a previous study. Similarly, when an ion containing multiple (13)C atoms was selected as a precursor for CID, the mutation could be identified, even in large fragments, by a marked change in the shape of the isotopic cluster for the consecutive product ions. This study demonstrates the merit of selecting a resolved ion rather than the whole isotopic cluster as a precursor in the CID measurements of large peptides or proteins for characterizing heterozygous mutations.
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[59] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[60] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[61] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[62] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[63] |
In today's society, it becomes increasingly important to assess which non-human and non-verbal beings possess consciousness. This review article aims to delineate criteria for consciousness especially in animals, while also taking into account intelligent artifacts. First, we circumscribe what we mean with "consciousness" and describe key features of subjective experience: qualitative richness, situatedness, intentionality and interpretation, integration and the combination of dynamic and stabilizing properties. We argue that consciousness has a biological function, which is to present the subject with a multimodal, situational survey of the surrounding world and body, subserving complex decision-making and goal-directed behavior. This survey reflects the brain's capacity for internal modeling of external events underlying changes in sensory state. Next, we follow an inside-out approach: how can the features of conscious experience, correlating to mechanisms inside the brain, be logically coupled to externally observable ("outside") properties? Instead of proposing criteria that would each define a "hard" threshold for consciousness, we outline six indicators: (i) goal-directed behavior and model-based learning; (ii) anatomic and physiological substrates for generating integrative multimodal representations; (iii) psychometrics and meta-cognition; (iv) episodic memory; (v) susceptibility to illusions and multistable perception; and (vi) specific visuospatial behaviors. Rather than emphasizing a particular indicator as being decisive, we propose that the consistency amongst these indicators can serve to assess consciousness in particular species. The integration of scores on the various indicators yields an overall, graded criterion for consciousness, somewhat comparable to the Glasgow Coma Scale for unresponsive patients. When considering theoretically derived measures of consciousness, it is argued that their validity should not be assessed on the basis of a single quantifiable measure, but requires cross-examination across multiple pieces of evidence, including the indicators proposed here. Current intelligent machines, including deep learning neural networks (DLNNs) and agile robots, are not indicated to be conscious yet. Instead of assessing machine consciousness by a brief Turing-type of test, evidence for it may gradually accumulate when we study machines ethologically and across time, considering multiple behaviors that require flexibility, improvisation, spontaneous problem-solving and the situational conspectus typically associated with conscious experience.
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[64] |
Integrated studies of coupled human and natural systems reveal new and complex patterns and processes not evident when studied by social or natural scientists separately. Synthesis of six case studies from around the world shows that couplings between human and natural systems vary across space, time, and organizational units. They also exhibit nonlinear dynamics with thresholds, reciprocal feedback loops, time lags, resilience, heterogeneity, and surprises. Furthermore, past couplings have legacy effects on present conditions and future possibilities.
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[65] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[66] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[67] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[68] |
To address devastating environmental crises and to improve human well-being, China has been implementing a number of national policies on payments for ecosystem services. Two of them, the Natural Forest Conservation Program (NFCP) and the Grain to Green Program (GTGP), are among the biggest programs in the world because of their ambitious goals, massive scales, huge payments, and potentially enormous impacts. The NFCP conserves natural forests through logging bans and afforestation with incentives to forest enterprises, whereas the GTGP converts cropland on steep slopes to forest and grassland by providing farmers with grain and cash subsidies. Overall ecological effects are beneficial, and socioeconomic effects are mostly positive. Whereas there are time lags in ecological effects, socioeconomic effects are more immediate. Both the NFCP and the GTGP also have global implications because they increase vegetative cover, enhance carbon sequestration, and reduce dust to other countries by controlling soil erosion. The future impacts of these programs may be even bigger. Extended payments for the GTGP have recently been approved by the central government for up to 8 years. The NFCP is likely to follow suit and receive renewed payments. To make these programs more effective, we recommend systematic planning, diversified funding, effective compensation, integrated research, and comprehensive monitoring. Effective implementation of these programs can also provide important experiences and lessons for other ecosystem service payment programs in China and many other parts of the world.
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[69] |
Global sustainability challenges, from maintaining biodiversity to providing clean air and water, are closely interconnected yet often separately studied and managed. Systems integration—holistic approaches to integrating various components of coupled human and natural systems—is critical to understand socioeconomic and environmental interconnections and to create sustainability solutions. Recent advances include the development and quantification of integrated frameworks that incorporate ecosystem services, environmental footprints, planetary boundaries, human-nature nexuses, and telecoupling. Although systems integration has led to fundamental discoveries and practical applications, further efforts are needed to incorporate more human and natural components simultaneously, quantify spillover systems and feedbacks, integrate multiple spatial and temporal scales, develop new tools, and translate findings into policy and practice. Such efforts can help address important knowledge gaps, link seemingly unconnected challenges, and inform policy and management decisions.
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[70] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[71] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[72] |
Integrated studies of coupled human and natural systems reveal new and complex patterns and processes not evident when studied by social or natural scientists separately. Synthesis of six case studies from around the world shows that couplings between human and natural systems vary across space, time, and organizational units. They also exhibit nonlinear dynamics with thresholds, reciprocal feedback loops, time lags, resilience, heterogeneity, and surprises. Furthermore, past couplings have legacy effects on present conditions and future possibilities.
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[73] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[74] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[75] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[76] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[77] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[78] |
Globalization pushes production and consumption to geographically diverse locations and generates a variety of sizeable opportunities and challenges. The distribution and associated effects of short-lived primary fine particulate matter (PM2.5), a representative of local pollution, are significantly affected by the consumption through global supply chain. Tele-connection is used here to represent the link between production and consumption activity at large distances. In this study, we develop a global consumption-based primary PM2.5 emission inventory to track primary PM2.5 emissions embodied in the supply chain and evaluate the extent to which local PM2.5 emissions are triggered by international trade. We further adopt consumption-based accounting and identify the global original source that produced the emissions. We find that anthropogenic PM2.5 emissions from industrial sectors accounted for 24 Tg globally in 2007; approximately 30% (7.2 Tg) of these emissions were embodied in export of products principally from Brazil, South Africa, India and China (3.8 Tg) to developed countries. Large differences (up to 10 times) in the embodied emissions intensity between net importers and exporters greatly increased total global PM2.5 emissions. Tele-connecting production and consumption activity provides valuable insights with respect to mitigating long-range transboundary air pollution and prompts concerted efforts aiming at more environmentally conscious globalization.
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[79] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[80] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[81] |
This commentary by Maurice King questions the viability of current public health strategies. He advocates for an ecological approach that seeks to improve the health of the entire planet. He discusses the concept of the demographic trap. Being demographically trapped refers to a population being stuck in an "unsustainable state with a high birth rate and death rate, with an ever increasing pressure on its resources, and with a rapidly deteriorating environment". King points out that the possible outcomes are limited for a population that becomes trapped. Some of the possible outcomes include dying from starvation and disease; fleeing as ecological refugees; being destroyed by war or genocide; or being supported by food and other resources from elsewhere, first as emergency relief and then perhaps indefinitely. King believes that ecological collapse has already taken place in parts of Ethiopia and the process may have begun on a wider scale elsewhere. According to King, this ecological predicament can be found in both rural and urban areas in the developing world. This article also discusses the problem of high fertility. King believes that the widely held belief that the necessary and sufficient condition for reducing the birth rate is to reduce the child death rate is erroneous. He states that a causal relationship between the 2 rates is untenable, instead, it is more reasonable to say that both rates respond to other common factors. The author suggests that a fall in the birth rate requires the harnessing of social and economic gains to reduce poverty and promote socio-economic development. He also believes that the continued growth in the size of the world's population is due to declining efforts in family planning and declining child mortality not having its alleged effects on fertility. King also brings forth an ethical dilemma. He asks, "are there some programs which, although they are technically feasible, should not be initiated because of there long-term population-increasing consequences?" He suggests that other factors such as ecological deterioration, integrity of the ecosystem, and the welfare of future communities need to be taken into consideration. King presents a new global strategy based on the concept of "sustainability". He says that "sustainability should be the maintenance of the capacity of the ecosystem to support life in quantity and variety". Specifically, he advocates for consumption control in the industrial North with intensive energy conservation and recycling. In the South, he calls for renewed vigor in family planning efforts. Public health measures need to be understood in terms of their demographic and ecological implications. If measures are found to be desustaining, King says that complementary ecologically sustaining measures should be introduced with them. He also believes that desustaining measures, such as oral rehydration, should not be introduced on a public health scale if no adequately sustaining complementary measures are possible. He asserts that desustaining measures, without complementary interventions, can ultimately increase the man-years of human misery.
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[82] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[83] |
A major problem worldwide is the potential loss of fisheries, forests, and water resources. Understanding of the processes that lead to improvements in or deterioration of natural resources is limited, because scientific disciplines use different concepts and languages to describe and explain complex social-ecological systems (SESs). Without a common framework to organize findings, isolated knowledge does not cumulate. Until recently, accepted theory has assumed that resource users will never self-organize to maintain their resources and that governments must impose solutions. Research in multiple disciplines, however, has found that some government policies accelerate resource destruction, whereas some resource users have invested their time and energy to achieve sustainability. A general framework is used to identify 10 subsystem variables that affect the likelihood of self-organization in efforts to achieve a sustainable SES.
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[84] |
The statistical analysis of mediation effects has become an indispensable tool for helping scientists investigate processes thought to be causal. Yet, in spite of many recent advances in the estimation and testing of mediation effects, little attention has been given to methods for communicating effect size and the practical importance of those effect sizes. Our goals in this article are to (a) outline some general desiderata for effect size measures, (b) describe current methods of expressing effect size and practical importance for mediation, (c) use the desiderata to evaluate these methods, and (d) develop new methods to communicate effect size in the context of mediation analysis. The first new effect size index we describe is a residual-based index that quantifies the amount of variance explained in both the mediator and the outcome. The second new effect size index quantifies the indirect effect as the proportion of the maximum possible indirect effect that could have been obtained, given the scales of the variables involved. We supplement our discussion by offering easy-to-use R tools for the numerical and visual communication of effect size for mediation effects.
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[85] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[86] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[87] |
This paper reviews and synthesizes findings from scholarly work on linkages among rural household demographics, livelihoods and the environment. Using the livelihood approach as an organizing framework, we examine evidence on the multiple pathways linking environmental variables and the following demographic variables: fertility, migration, morbidity and mortality, and lifecycles. Although the review draws on studies from the entire developing world, we find the majority of micro-level studies have been conducted in either marginal (mountainous or arid) or frontier environments, especially Amazonia. Though the linkages are mediated by many complex and often context-specific factors, there is strong evidence that dependence on natural resources intensifies when households lose human and social capital through adult morbidity and mortality, and qualified evidence for the influence of environmental factors on household decision-making regarding fertility and migration. Two decades of research on lifecycles and land-cover change at the farm level have yielded a number of insights about how households make use of different land-use and natural resource management strategies at different stages. A thread running throughout the review is the importance of managing risk through livelihood diversification, ensuring future income security, and culture-specific norms regarding appropriate and desirable activities and demographic responses. Recommendations for future research are provided.
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[88] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[89] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[90] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[91] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[92] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[93] |
Global environmental change and sustainability science increasingly recognize the need to address the consequences of changes taking place in the structure and function of the biosphere. These changes raise questions such as: Who and what are vulnerable to the multiple environmental changes underway, and where? Research demonstrates that vulnerability is registered not by exposure to hazards (perturbations and stresses) alone but also resides in the sensitivity and resilience of the system experiencing such hazards. This recognition requires revisions and enlargements in the basic design of vulnerability assessments, including the capacity to treat coupled human-environment systems and those linkages within and without the systems that affect their vulnerability. A vulnerability framework for the assessment of coupled human-environment systems is presented.
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[94] |
There is a need to find a comprehensive approach focusing on the conflicts between economical growth and environmental protection. Chinese scholars advocate a comprehensive ecosystem viewpoint named social-economic-natural complex ecosystem(SENCE). The kernel of the concept lies in the hierarchical structure of SENCE, through which methods from ecological network can be useful to the compound system. The author gives a schema depicting its structure, following a model analysis to help understand the reliance of economy on ecosystem. It is obvious that more actions should be done to strive for sustainable development.
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[95] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[96] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[97] |
Health policy and systems research (HPSR) has changed considerably over the last 20 years, but its main purpose remains to inform and influence health policies and systems. Whereas goals that underpin health systems have endured - such as a focus on health equity - contexts and priorities change, research methods progress, and health organisations continue to learn and adapt, in part by using HPSR. For HPSR to remain relevant, its practitioners need to re-think how health systems are conceptualised, to keep up with rapid changes in how we diagnose and manage disease and use information, and consider factors affecting people's health that go well beyond healthcare systems. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) represent a shifting paradigm in human development by seeking convergence across sectors. They also offer an opportunity for HPSR to play a larger role, given its pioneering work on applying systems thinking to health, its focus on health equity, and the strength of its multi-disciplinary approaches that make it a good fit for the SDG era.Globally, population health is being challenged in different ways, from climate change and growing air pollution and toxic environmental exposure to food insecurity, massive population migration and refugee crises, to emerging and re-emerging diseases. Each of these trends reinforce each other and concentrate their harms on the most vulnerable populations. Multi-level governance, together with novel regulatory strategies and socially oriented investments, are key to successful action against many of the new challenges, with HPSR guiding their design and evolution.The HPSR community cannot be complacent about its successful, yet short, history. Tensions remain about how different stakeholders use HPSR such as the contrast between embedding research within government institutions versus independently evaluating and holding decision-makers accountable. Such tensions are inevitable in the boundary-spanning field that HPSR has become. We should strive to enhance the influence of HPSR by staying relevant in a changing world and embracing the strength of our diversity of disciplines, the range of problems addressed, and the opportunity of the SDGs to ensure that health and social benefits are more inclusive for people within and across countries.
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[98] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[99] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[100] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[101] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[102] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[103] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[104] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[105] |
This paper examines local people's knowledge, attitudes and perceptions towards Wolong Biosphere Reserve (WBR) and its management policies. Pertinent data were collected through a questionnaire survey and group discussions. This study revealed that local people's perceptions were affected by many factors, including education, gender, residence location, household size and acreage of land owned. Although most respondents had limited knowledge about WBR because of their absence in WBR management, they held a positive attitude towards WBR. An in-depth analysis of their attitudes and perceptions showed that two potential conflicts might affect biodiversity conservation and protected area management. One of them was the imbalance between the limited cropland holding and the oversupply of the labor force, and the other one was the increase in electricity price versus the decrease in economic incentives for the Natural Forest Protection Project. The study also revealed that relocation was considered unacceptable to most respondents. However, those residing far from the main road were willing to relocate more than those near the main road. Based on our studies, some recommendations are given for improvement of WBR management.
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[106] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[107] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[108] |
Although scientists have warned of possible social perils resulting from climate change, the impacts of long-term climate change on social unrest and population collapse have not been quantitatively investigated. In this study, high-resolution paleo-climatic data have been used to explore at a macroscale the effects of climate change on the outbreak of war and population decline in the preindustrial era. We show that long-term fluctuations of war frequency and population changes followed the cycles of temperature change. Further analyses show that cooling impeded agricultural production, which brought about a series of serious social problems, including price inflation, then successively war outbreak, famine, and population decline successively. The findings suggest that worldwide and synchronistic war-peace, population, and price cycles in recent centuries have been driven mainly by long-term climate change. The findings also imply that social mechanisms that might mitigate the impact of climate change were not significantly effective during the study period. Climate change may thus have played a more important role and imposed a wider ranging effect on human civilization than has so far been suggested. Findings of this research may lend an additional dimension to the classic concepts of Malthusianism and Darwinism.
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[109] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[110] |
Water can be redistributed through, in physical terms, water transfer projects and virtually, embodied water for the production of traded products. Here, we explore whether such water redistributions can help mitigate water stress in China. This study, for the first time to our knowledge, both compiles a full inventory for physical water transfers at a provincial level and maps virtual water flows between Chinese provinces in 2007 and 2030. Our results show that, at the national level, physical water flows because of the major water transfer projects amounted to 4.5% of national water supply, whereas virtual water flows accounted for 35% (varies between 11% and 65% at the provincial level) in 2007. Furthermore, our analysis shows that both physical and virtual water flows do not play a major role in mitigating water stress in the water-receiving regions but exacerbate water stress for the water-exporting regions of China. Future water stress in the main water-exporting provinces is likely to increase further based on our analysis of the historical trajectory of the major governing socioeconomic and technical factors and the full implementation of policy initiatives relating to water use and economic development. Improving water use efficiency is key to mitigating water stress, but the efficiency gains will be largely offset by the water demand increase caused by continued economic development. We conclude that much greater attention needs to be paid to water demand management rather than the current focus on supply-oriented management.
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[111] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
[112] |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
{{custom_ref.label}} |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
/
〈 |
|
〉 |