Understanding land system dynamics and its consequences

Wenbin WU, H VERBURG Peter, Huajun TANG

Journal of Geographical Sciences ›› 2018, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (11) : 1563-1566.

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Journal of Geographical Sciences ›› 2018, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (11) : 1563-1566. DOI: 10.1007/s11442-018-1562-1
Special Issue: Land system dynamics: Pattern and process

Understanding land system dynamics and its consequences

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WU Wenbin, Peter H VERBURG, TANG Huajun. Understanding land system dynamics and its consequences[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2018, 28(11): 1563-1566 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-018-1562-1
Land is critical to society by providing foods, fuel, fibers and many other ecosystem services that support production functions, regulate risks of natural hazards, or provide cultural and spiritual services (Verburg et al., 2013). By using the land, human have transformed a large proportion of the planet’s land surface. These land use activities have enormous consequences for the environment as they alter the structure and functioning of ecosystems, and they influence how ecosystems interact with the atmosphere, aquatic systems and surrounding land (Wu et al., 2007). Land use and its dynamics have thus attracted much attention from international research community.
Under the Land Use and Land Cover Change (LUCC) project commissioned by the International Geosphere Biosphere Programme (IGBP) and the International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change (IHDP) (Lambin and Geist, 2006), significant progress has been made in monitoring of land use and land cover changes such as deforestation and desertification, and deepening understanding of the ecological impacts of these changes. The growing group of scientists across the social, economic, geographical and natural sciences engaged in this field led to the emergence of “Land Change Science” as a separate, interdisciplinary, research field (Rindfuss et al., 2004; Turner et al., 2007). The successor of the LUCC, Global Land Project (GLP) has continued the work of LUCC (GLP, 2005). Gradually, the research interest has become more focused on the drivers and impacts of land changes, as well as their feedbacks between drivers and impacts. This has motivated an integrated socio-ecological systems perspective. In this integrated concept, land systems are acknowledged as the result of dynamic interactions within the socio-ecological system that operate across spatial and temporal scales (Verburg et al., 2013 and 2015). This perspective has also moved land change science to land system science, with a focus shifting from the most dramatic land cover changes to greater attention for subtle changes of human interactions with the natural surroundings.
This special issue of Journal of Geographical Sciences aims to communicate the latest research progress in land system science, to specifically look at some key theoretical and technical issues in investigating or modeling the dynamics of this coupled human-natural system in an urbanizing and telecoupling world, and to offer some case studies from a variety of countries or regions demonstrating the experience, algorithms, tools and models for framing these dynamics at different space and time scales. The articles in this issue were selected from the Third Open Science Meeting of the Global Land Project held from 24th-27th October 2016 in Beijing, China. This meeting brought together large parts of the international research community working on land system issues to showcase the width and scope of ongoing research, help build a community in this highly interdisciplinary field, inspire new research, and to facilitate review, theory building and application of science in practice. All these can help to provide a comprehensive knowledge base in understanding the patterns and processes of land system changes.
Overall, the articles can be divided into three main approaches to studying land systems: land systems dynamics, land use intensity, and impacts of land change. The first four articles deal with linkages between the local and global, teleconnections and modelling approaches to understanding and influencing land system dynamics. Ju et al. (2018) use land use maps interpreted from remote sensing imagery to investigate and compare the spatio-temporal patterns of cropland conversion to urban areas, rural settlements, and industrial/transportation land from 1987 to 2010. They find that urban growth shows a greater impact on cropland loss than the expansion of rural settlements and the expansion of industrial/transportation land after 2000 (Yu et al., 2018). The contribution of rural settlement expansion decreases, yet rural settlement sees the highest percentage of traditional high-quality cropland loss. The contribution of industrial/transportation land expansion increases dramatically and is mainly distributed in major food production regions. Chen et al. (2018) apply FAO statistics and GlobeLand30, and develop three indicator groups to understand the spatial-temporal changes in cultivated land in the Belt and Road Initiative region. The results show that cultivated land area in the BRI region increases 3.73×104 km2 between 2000 and 2010 and the increased cultivated land is mainly found in Central and Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia, while the decreased cultivated land is mostly concentrated in China. Cultivated land is mainly transferred to or from forest, grassland, artificial surfaces and bare land. There are some potentials to boost the food production in this region if their cultivated land use is intensified. Liu et al. (2018) conduct linear regression and spatial analysis to investigate the cropping structure type and cropping proportion changes at the national level for the period 1980-2011. Their findings show that China’s cropping structure has undergone significant changes since 2002; the richness of cropping structure types has increased significantly and a diversified-type structure has gradually replaced the single types. Fan et al. (2018) describe the historical changes in centroids of rice, maize and wheat in China from 1949 to 2014. They find that the centroids of rice and maize experience an obvious shift in the Northeast direction, but centroids of the wheat area and production are randomly distributed along the border of the Shanxi and Henan provinces.
Two articles specifically deal with the intensity of land systems. Yan et al. (2018) extract the cropping intensity represented by the multiple cropping index (MCI) in Huang-Huai-Hai agricultural region and analyze its changes over 2000-2012. The results show that MCI in Huang-Huai-Hai region has increased from 152% to 156% in the past 12 years. More intensive use of existing croplands by increasing cropping intensity may provide an alternative for increasing the frequency of harvests each year, resulting in increased food supplies without additional cropland expansion (Dias et al., 2016; Wu et al., 2018). Shi et al. (2018) assess the intensity of cropland use and explore the influencing factors in the same Huang-Huai-Hai region. The authors find that the intensity of inputs, degree of utilization, and production increase continuously from 1996 to 2011, but the intensity of continuous conditions experiences an overall decline followed by a rebound towards the end of the study period.
The impacts of land system changes and their feedbacks with other systems are addressed by the next group of four articles. Xia et al. (2018) use the CLUE-S model to simulate the future land use changes over 2000-2050 in Northeast China and study their impacts on ecosystem services. They construct three different scenarios: ecological security (ESS), food security (FSS) and comprehensive development (CDS). The results can help the region to better manage land resources and guide policy interventions so as to make trade-offs between economic development and environmental protection. Tian et al. (2018) apply the AEZ model to assess the climatic change impacts on rapeseed production potential in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s in the Yangtze River Basin of China. They conclude that total rapeseed production would increase significantly in the middle of this century (2050s), yet the uncertainty of climate change impacts on rapeseed production also increases with time. Yao et al. (2018) model three land-use optimization scenarios (uncontrolled scenario, scale control scenario, and spatial restriction scenario) and assess their effects on SOC sequestration potential from 2010 to 2030 in Beijing. This research provides evidence to guide planning authorities in conducting land-use optimization strategies and estimating their effects on the carbon sequestration function of land-use systems. Globalized markets, decisions by distant governments, and global agenda setting influence local land use decisions to an ever-increasing degree (Liu et al., 2013). Dou et al. (2018) make a good attempt to evaluate their spillover effects of conservation efforts in Amazon by using the telecoupling framework. Surprisingly, they find that the supply-chain agreements have significantly reduced deforestation by half compared to projections within the sending system, but at the cost of increasing deforestation in the spillover system. The authors emphasize that spillover effects should be considered in the evaluation and planning of conservation efforts. Rowan (2018) develops a decision tree to locate the renewable nitrogen at a global scale by taking into account their spatial footprint and the impact on terrestrial biodiversity. They find that there are relatively few areas suitable for solar power in the western Americas, central southern Africa, eastern Asia and southern Australia, with areas most suited to wind at more extreme latitudes.
The articles in this special issue present different insights, views, and methodologies in research across the land system science community. The findings enrich our current knowledge and understanding on land system change trends, impacts of these trends on production and environment (Wu et al., 2014; Yu et al., 2018). The results provide helpful insights to assist effective land planning and land management measures to fully exploit the services of land systems while minimizing its negative impacts. The studies presented in this issue also demonstrate that land systems encompass all processes and activities related to the human use of land and are a complex issue that requires a multi-dimensional perspective. A high level of interdisciplinary and cross-scale collaboration across academic disciplines is thus needed in the future studies (Rounsevell et al., 2012).

References

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Fan L, Liang S, Chen H et al., 2018. Spatio-temporal analysis of the geographical centroids for three major crops in China from 1949 to 2014.Journal of Geographical Sciences, 28(11): 1672-1684.Spatial distribution changes in major crops can reveal important information about cropping systems. Here, a new centroid method that applies physics and mathematics to spatial pattern analysis in...
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Lambin E F, Geist H, 2006. Land-use and Land-cover Change. Berlin Heidelberg: Springer.is a general term for the human modification of Earth's terrestrial surface. Though humans have been modifying land to obtain food and other essentials for thousands of years, current rates, extents and intensities of LULCC are far greater than ever in history, driving unprecedented changes in ecosystems and environmental processes at local, regional and global scales. These changes encompass the greatest environmental concerns of human populations today, including
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Wu W, Yu Q, You L et al., 2018. Global cropping intensity gaps: Increasing food production without cropland expansion.Land Use Policy, 76: 515-525.To feed the world’s growing population, more food needs to be produced using currently available cropland. In addition to yield increase, increasing cropping intensity may provide another promising opportunity to boost global crop production. However, spatially explicit information on the cropping intensity gap (CIG) of current global croplands is lacking. Here, we developed the first spatially explicit approach to measure the global CIG, which represents the difference between the potential and actual cropping intensity. Results indicate that the global average CIG around the year 2010 was 0.48 and 0.17 for the temperature- and temperature/precipitation-limited scenarios, respectively. Surprisingly, global harvest areas can be expanded by another 7.3662million62 km 2 and 2.7162million62km 2 (37.55% and 13.83% of current global cropland) under the two scenarios, respectively. This will largely compensate the future global cropland loss due to increasing urbanization and industrialization. Latin America has the largest potential to expand its harvest area by closing the CIGs, followed by Asia. Some countries in Africa have a large CIG, meaning that some additional harvests can potentially be achieved. Our analysis suggests that reducing the CIG would provide a potential strategy to increase global food production without cropland expansion, thus also helping achieve other Sustainable Development Goals such as biodiversity conservation and climate change mitigation.
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Xia T, Wu W, Zhou Q et al., 2018. Modeling the spatio-temporal changes in land uses and its impacts on ecosystem services in Northeast China over 2000-2050.Journal of Geographical Sciences, 28(11): 1611-1625.Land use and its dynamics have attracted considerable scientific attention for their significant ecological and socioeconomic implications. Many studies have investigated the past changes in land...
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Yu Q, Hu Q, van Vliet J et al., 2018. GlobeLand30 shows little cropland area loss but greater fragmentation in China.International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, 66: 37-45.Understanding of cropland dynamics in a large geographical extent is mostly based on observations of area change, while the changes in landscape pattern are hardly assessed. The total amount of cropland in China has remained relatively stable in recent years, which might suggest there was little change. In this analysis, we combine the number of cropland patches (NP) with the total cropland area (TA) for a more comprehensive characterization of cropland change in China. We use GlobeLand30 global land cover dataset with a 30 m resolution for the years 2000 and 2010鈥揳nd characterize changes in TA and NP for each county as increase, stable, or decrease. This characterization shows that 703 out of 2420 counties experienced both cropland loss and increased fragmentation. The predominant cropland loss in these areas, especially in the North China Plain, is converted to artificial land. Another 212 are characterized by the opposite developments: an increase in cropland and decreased fragmentation. These counties, are mainly characterized by a conversion of forest areas and grassland areas. It suggests that the cropland conservation policy in China effectively protected the total cropland area in overall, but the consequences in terms of fragmentation might be underestimated. Counties with no obvious change in both indicators, measuring 279 counties, are mainly located in the Southeast. Our results are further compared with local level case studies: the fair consistency indicates alternatives of applying GlobeLand30 for analyzing landscape changes across scales and for cross-site comparisons.
[25]
Yu Q, van Vliet J, Verburg P H et al., 2018. Harvested area gaps in China between 1981 and 2010: Effects of climatic and land management factors.Environmental Research Letters, 13: 044006.

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The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

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