Table of Content

    25 October 2020, Volume 30 Issue 10 Previous Issue    Next Issue
    Review Article
    Agent-based model of land system: Theory, application and modelling framework
    DAI Erfu, MA Liang, YANG Weishi, WANG Yahui, YIN Le, TONG Miao
    2020, 30 (10):  1555-1570.  doi: 10.1007/s11442-020-1799-3
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    Land change science has become an interdisciplinary research direction for understanding human-natural coupling systems. As a process-oriented modelling approach, agent based model (ABM) plays an important role in revealing the driving forces of land change and understanding the process of land change. This paper starts from three aspects: The theory, application and modeling framework of ABM. First, we summarize the theoretical basis of ABM and introduce some related concepts. Then we expound the application and development of ABM in both urban land systems and agricultural land systems, and further introduce the case study of a model on Grain for Green Program in Hengduan Mountainous region, China. On the basis of combing the ABM modeling protocol, we propose the land system ABM modeling framework and process from the perspective of agents. In terms of urban land use, ABM research initially focused on the study of urban expansion based on landscape, then expanded to issues like urban residential separation, planning and zoning, ecological functions, etc. In terms of agricultural land use, ABM application presents more diverse and individualized features. Research topics include farmers’ behavior, farmers’ decision-making, planting systems, agricultural policy, etc. Compared to traditional models, ABM is more complex and difficult to generalize beyond specific context since it relies on local knowledge and data. However, due to its unique bottom-up model structure, ABM has an indispensable role in exploring the driving forces of land change and also the impact of human behavior on the environment.

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    Research Articles
    Impact of cultivated land fragmentation on spatial heterogeneity of agricultural agglomeration in China
    XU Weiyi, JIN Xiaobin, LIU Jing, ZHOU Yinkang
    2020, 30 (10):  1571-1589.  doi: 10.1007/s11442-020-1800-1
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    Systematically revealing the impact of cultivated land fragmentation (CLF) on the geographical agglomeration pattern of agricultural specialization (AS) has positive significance for national agricultural production management. Based on the data of the second national land survey and agricultural production, this study has explored the impact of CLF on spatial heterogeneity of agricultural agglomeration in China by comprehensively using the Theil index, ordinary least square model and geographically weighted regression. Results showed that: (1) the regional differentiation of the CLF in China is obvious, and the cultivated land fragmentation index is generally characterized by increasing pattern from northwest to southeast. (2) Spatially, the development level of AS in China has formed three high-value clusters in the Northeast China Plain, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and the middle of the Middle-lower Yangtze Plain; and the low-value contiguous areas centered on the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau and the Sichuan Basin and surrounding regions, with significant spatial differences. The contribution of grain crops, economic crops, and vegetables and melon to the level of AS was 74.63%, 9.09%, and 16.28%, respectively, and the pattern of agricultural geographical aggregation dominated by grain crops has primarily taken in shape. (3) CLF is significantly negatively correlated with AS, and every 1% increase in the degree of CLF will result in a decrease of about 0.2% in AS. However, the impact of CLF on the geographic agglomeration of different crop categories or groups varies significantly. Among them, CLF has a prominent impact on the specialization level of grain crops and vegetables and melon. Each 1% increase in the CLF will reduce the specialization level of grain crops by 0.38%, and increase the level of vegetables and melon by about 0.22%. (4) According to the landscape characteristics of cultivated land, the degree of spatial division and agglomeration of cultivated land patches have a significant impact on the formation of geographical agglomeration pattern of AS, and the intensity and direction of influence show significant regional differentiation, while the patch size has no significant impact.

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    Patterns and trends in grain self-sufficiency on the Tibetan Plateau during 1985-2016
    SHI Wenjiao, LU Changhe, SHI Xiaoli, CUI Jiaying
    2020, 30 (10):  1590-1602.  doi: 10.1007/s11442-020-1801-0
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    Capacity for grain self-sufficiency on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is an important basis for ensuring social stability and regional sustainability. Thus, based on county-level statistical data for population, grain production and consumption, we analyzed patterns and trends in grain supply and demand at regional, provincial, and county levels on the TP between 1985 and 2016. We applied two indices to evaluate capacity for grain self-sufficiency and found that the regional average self-sufficiency rate increased quickly by 1.97%/a since 1989, reaching 173.03% on the plateau over the period between 2010 and 2016. This indicates that grain supply in this region is able to fully meet demand. In addition, all provinces apart from Xinjiang exhibited similar increasing trends, attaining grain self-sufficiency during 2010-2016. Furthermore, 59% of counties attained grain self-sufficiency over this period, mainly distributed in southern Tibet, in the Sichuan-Tibet junction area, and in eastern Qinghai Province. A number of gaps in grain supply and demand occurred within the headwater regions of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers as well as on the Qiangtang Plateau. Grain self-sufficiency significantly increased over the study period in 36% of counties, mainly distributed in the agricultural areas of southeastern Tibet and in eastern Qinghai. Across the whole plateau, capacity for grain self-sufficiency substantially increased between 1985 and 2016, although serious spatial imbalances remain.

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    Exploring the urban-rural development differences and influencing factors in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China
    CHENG Mingyang, LI Linna, ZHOU Yang
    2020, 30 (10):  1603-1616.  doi: 10.1007/s11442-020-1802-z
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    Uneven urban and rural development is one of the main reasons for the decline of the countryside. This imbalance could be measured by the urban-rural difference index (URDI). Existing studies on urban-rural differences have focused on single dimension between urban and rural areas, and lack a systematic multi-dimensional measurement. Based on the construction of an index system and model for measuring urban-rural differences, this study took the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain (HHHP) as the study area, explores the spatial pattern of urban-rural differences in the area, and used geographical weighted regression models to identify the factors affecting urban-rural development differences. Results show that the mean value of URDI in the HHHP was 0.295, and the URDI in its western region was higher than that in the east. The average URDI was relatively high in the western counties along the Beijing-Guangzhou Railway. The low level of urban-rural “population-land-industry” development in the HHHP is an important reason for the small differences between urban and rural areas. Improvements in road transportation infrastructure have led to an increase in the urban-rural development gap. However, the driving force of the road network on urban development is greater than that on rural areas. The role of county economic agglomeration is gaining strength. In the process of rapid economic development, more attention should be paid to the development of the rural economy and the overall revitalization of the countryside. The equivalent allocation of social service facilities is an effective way to solve the problem of urban-rural imbalance. Further analysis demonstrated that terrain factors have relatively little influence on the URDI. This study provides a new perspective and measurement method for understanding the integration of urban and rural development, and provides a useful reference for guiding the urban-rural integration development and the rural revitalization.

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    Priority sites and conservation gaps of wintering waterbirds in the Yangtze River floodplain
    XIA Shaoxia, YU Xiubo, LEI Jinyu, HEARN Richard, SMITH Bena, LEI Gang, XIE Ping
    2020, 30 (10):  1617-1632.  doi: 10.1007/s11442-020-1803-y
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    The Yangtze River floodplain is critical for migratory waterbirds along the East Asian-Australasian Flyway (EAAF). Greater awareness of its global importance is urgently needed to ensure waterbird populations remain in favourable conservation status, as well as the enhancement of wider wetland biodiversity within this region. The designation of protected wetland areas and building a green ecological corridor in the Yangtze floodplain is now becoming a critical issue of interest to the Chinese government. Priority sites in this area were identified based on the criteria used to identify sites that qualify as Wetlands of International Importance (Ramsar Sites) and Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas (IBAs) by using multi-source data. The results show that 140 of the sites surveyed are priority sites. The Importance Index (I) for the whole floodplain decreased slightly from 2001-2005 and an unbalanced distribution pattern is evident with Jiangxi and Hunan provinces significantly higher than the other provinces in the floodplain. Although more than 60% of the priority sites are currently located outside protected areas, the average Conservation Effectiveness Index (C) of the whole floodplain is 75.6%, which suggests the coverage of protected areas for most wintering waterbird population is reasonable. Conservation of the Yangtze River floodplain needs to be further strengthened due to declining waterbird abundances and the mismatch between the distribution of protected areas and their importance for wintering waterbirds. A comprehensive system for priority site identification and protection and scientific review is needed. Multi-sourced data from regular, systematic and coordinated monitoring of waterbird distribution and abundance across the EAAF, as well as national scale citizen science programmes are also critically important.

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    Evolution characteristics and drivers of the water level at an identical discharge in the Jingjiang reaches of the Yangtze River
    CHAI Yuanfang, YANG Yunping, DENG Jinyun, SUN Zhaohua, LI Yitian, ZHU Lingling
    2020, 30 (10):  1633-1648.  doi: 10.1007/s11442-020-1804-x
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    The operation of large-scale reservoirs have modified water and sediment transport processes, resulting in adjustments to the river topography and water levels. The polynomial fitting method was applied to analyze the variation characteristics of water levels under different water discharge values in the Jingjiang reach of the Yangtze River from 1991-2016. The segregation variable method was used to estimate the contributions of the varied riverbed evaluation, the downstream-controlled water level, and the comprehensive roughness on the altered water level at an identical flow. We find that low water levels in the Jingjiang reach of the Yangtze River from 1991-2016 are characterized by a significant downward trend, which has intensified since 2009. Riverbed scouring has been the dominate factor causing the reduced low water level while increased roughness alleviated this reduction. From 1991-2016, there was first a decrease followed by an increase in the high water level. The variation characteristic in terms of the “high flood discharge at a high water level” before 2003 transformed into a “middle flood discharge at a high water level” since 2009. The increased comprehensive roughness was the main reason for the increased high water level, where river scouring alleviated this rise. For navigation conditions and flood control, intensified riverbed scouring of the sandy reaches downstream from dams enhanced the effects that the downstream water level has on the upstream water level. This has led to an insufficient water depth in the reaches below the dams, which should receive immediate attention. The altered variation characteristics of the high water level have also increased the flood pressure in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River.

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    Using LiDAR-DEM based rapid flood inundation modelling framework to map floodplain inundation extent and depth
    ZHANG Yongqiang
    2020, 30 (10):  1649-1663.  doi: 10.1007/s11442-020-1805-9
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    Mapping floods is important for policy makers to make timely decisions in regards to emergency responses and future planning. It is therefore crucial to develop a rapid inundation modelling framework to map flood inundation. This study develops an airborne scanning laser altimetry (LiDAR) digital elevation model (DEM) based Rapid flood Inundation Modelling framework (LiDAR-RIM) for assessment of inundation extent, depth, volume and duration for flood events. The modelling framework has been applied to the mid-Murrumbidgee region in the southeast Murray-Darling Basin, Australia for two flood events occurred in December 2010 and March 2012. The inundation extents estimated using this methodology compared well to those obtained from two Landsat ETM+ images, demonstrating suitability and applicability of this method. For testing possibility of larger area application, the framework also uses 30-m resolution shuttle radar topography mission (SRTM)-DEM to replace LiDAR-DEM for the same modelling. The inundation extents obtained by using the SRTM-DEM are smaller than those obtained using the LiDAR-DEM, especially for large flood events. A possible reason is that the river cross sections obtained from the SRTM-DEM are not accurate enough for inundation modelling. The LiDAR-RIM has an advantage for process modelling and scenario modelling under future climatic conditions.

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    Temperature variations evidenced by records on the latest spring snowing dates in Hangzhou of eastern China during 1131-1270AD
    LIU Haolong, DAI Junhu, YAN Junhui, HE Fanneng, GE Quansheng, MU Chongxing
    2020, 30 (10):  1664-1680.  doi: 10.1007/s11442-020-1806-8
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    We collected and verified documentary records of the latest spring snowing dates (LSSD) in Hangzhou during Southern Song Dynasty. Furtherly, the statistical correlation between this proxy and February-April mean temperature in Hangzhou was examined, and samples later than the perennial mean of the LSSD during Southern Song Dynasty were transformed into the decadal mean of LSSD by means of Boltzmann function. General characteristics of this reconstructed LSSD series with a 10-year temporal resolution was analyzed, and it was also compared with other documentary evidences and reconstructed climate series in China for the period 1131-1270. The results and discussion suggested that: (1) Records of the LSSD in Hangzhou during Southern Song Dynasty did not refer to ice pellets and graupels, which had an explicit climate significance (-0.34oC/10d, R 2=0.37, p<0.001). However, when this proxy is used to reconstruct temperature changes, all dates should be converted into proleptic Gregorian style and meet the same criterion of “true Qi” as the Chinese traditional calendar after 1929. (2) The decadal mean of LSSD can be effectively estimated by using the forefront of LSSD in the decade on the basis of Boltzmann function, whose extrapolation has a lesser uncertainty than those on the basis of linear models or polynomial models. (3) The spring climate in Hangzhou during 1131-1270 was almost as warm as the period 1951-1980. At the centennial scale, this period can be divided into two phases: the cold 1131-1170 and the warm 1171-1270. In the latter, 1181-1200 and 1221-1240 were two cold intervals at the multi-decadal scale. (4) The reconstructed LSSD series was consistent well with other documentary evidences and reconstructed climate series in China for 1131-1270, which may reflect the influence on the climate over most regions of China imposed by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).

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    Chinese overseas ports: Market potential, supply capacity and access to imports
    DUNFORD Michael, LIU Zhigao, XUE Jiashun
    2020, 30 (10):  1681-1701.  doi: 10.1007/s11442-020-1807-7
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    Especially since 2012 Chinese companies have acquired stakes as investors and constructors of overseas ports in both high-income and emerging economies. These initiatives play an important role in the construction of a Maritime Silk Road and China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Although a result of many factors, of which Chinese port investments are only one, macro-geographical gravity methods show that distance impedance and increases in the export market potential, export supply capacity and access to imports of these countries drove increases in income per capita. Export supply capacity rose particularly in Southeast Asia and more recently in Sub-Saharan Africa. In difficult times for the world economy, countries in which China invested in overseas port infrastructure saw increases in national export market potential and income per capita, due to reduction in the impedance of distance, while in the case of developing economies export market supply capacity and access to imported capital equipment and intermediate goods improved.

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    The cooperative and conflictual interactions between the United States, Russia, and China: A quantitative analysis of event data
    YUAN Lihua, SONG Changqing, CHENG Changxiu, SHEN Shi, CHEN Xiaoqiang, WANG Yuanhui
    2020, 30 (10):  1702-1720.  doi: 10.1007/s11442-020-1808-6
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    The United States, Russia and China are militarily and economically among the most powerful countries in the post-Cold War period, and the interactions between the three powers heavily influence the international system. However, different conclusions about this question are generally made by researchers through qualitative analysis, and it is necessary to objectively and quantitatively investigate their interactions. Monthly-aggregated event data from the Global Data on Events, Location and Tone (GDELT) to measure cooperative and conflictual interactions between the three powers, and the complementary cumulative distribution function (CCDF) and the vector autoregression (VAR) method are utilized to investigate their interactions in two periods: January, 1991 to September, 2001, and October, 2001 to December, 2016. The results of frequencies and strengths analysis showed that: the frequencies and strengths of USA-China interactions slightly exceeded those of USA-Russia interactions and became the dominant interactions in the second period. Although that cooperation prevailed in the three dyads in two periods, the conflictual interactions between the USA and Russia tended to be more intense in the second period, mainly related to the strategic contradiction between the USA and Russia, especially in Georgia, Ukraine and Syria. The results of CCDF indicated that similar probabilities in the cooperative behaviors between the three dyads, but the differences in the probabilities of conflictual behaviors in the USA-Russia dyad showed complicated characteristic, and those between Russia and China indicated that Russia had been consistently giving China a hard time in both periods when dealing with conflict. The USA was always an essential factor in affecting the interactions between Russia and China in both periods, but China’s behavior only played a limited role in influencing the interactions between the USA-Russia dyad. Our study provides quantitative insight into the direct cooperative and conflictual interactions between the three dyads since the end of the Cold War and helps to understand their interactions better.

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