This paper addresses issues on adaptive water management under the impact of climate change. Based on a set of comprehensive indicators of water system, a decision making approach of multi-objects is developed and applied to quantify water adaptive management for the demands of water sustainable use, water environmental protection and eco-water requirement under the climate change. For this study in China, two key indicators are proposed, namely (1) the water resources vulnerability (V) that was represented by integrated sensitivity (S) and resilience (C) of climate change impact on water resources, and (2) the sustainability of socio-economy and water environment, marked by DD, that is integrated scaler of socio-economic development (EG) based on the amount of GDP and the water environment and relative eco-system quality (LI). To find a reasonable solution for adaptive water management, a multi-objective decision making model of adaptive water management is further developed and the multi-objective model was transformed into an integrated single optimization model through developing an integrated measure function, called as VDD=DD/V. This approach has been applied to adaptive water resources planning and management for case study of China with new policy, called as the strict management of water resources based on three red line controls, i.e., the control of total water use by the total water resources allocation, the control of lower water use efficiency by the water demand management and the control of the total waste water load by water quality management in the Eastern China Monsoon Region that covers major eight big river basins including Yangtze River, Yellow River, Haihe River and Huaihe River. It is shown that the synthetic representation of water resource vulnerability and socio-economic sustainability by the integrated objective function (VDD) and integrated decision making model are workable and practicable. Adaptive management effect of the criterion compliance rate and water use efficiency are more appreciable through new water policy of the three red line controls, which can reduce 21.3% of the water resources vulnerability (V) and increase 18.4% of the sustainability of socio- economy and water environment (DD) for the unfavorable scenario of climate change in 2030.
Rainfall erosivity is an important climatic factor for predicting soil loss. Through the application of high-resolution pluviograph data at 5 stations in Huangshan City, Anhui Province, China, we analyzed the performance of a modified Richardson model that incorporated the seasonal variations in parameters α and β. The results showed that (1) moderate to high seasonality was presented in the distribution of erosive rainfall, and the seasonality of rainfall erosivity was even stronger; (2) seasonal variations were demonstrated in both parameters α and β of the Richardson model; and (3) incorporating and coordinating the seasonality of parameters α and β greatly improved the predictions at the monthly scale. This newly modified model is therefore highly recommended when monthly rainfall erosivity is required, such as, in planning soil and water conservation practices and calculating the cover-management factor in the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE).
Based on the statistical method and the historical evolution of meteorological stations, the temperature time series for each station in Hunan Province during 1910-2014 are tested for their homogeneity and then corrected. The missing data caused by war and other reasons at the 8 meteorological stations which had records before 1950 is filled by interpolation using adjacent observations, and complete temperature time series since the establishment of stations are constructed. After that, according to the representative analysis of each station in different time periods, the temperature series of Hunan Province during 1910-2014 are built and their changes are analyzed. The results indicate that the annual mean temperature has a significant warming trend during 1910-2014 and the seasonal mean temperature has the largest rising amplitude in winter and spring, followed by autumn, but no significant change in summer. Temperature variation over Hunan Province has several significant warm-cold alternations and more frequent than that in whole China. Annual and seasonal mean temperatures except summer and autumn have abrupt warming changes in the recent 100 years. The wavelet analysis suggests that the annual and four seasonal mean temperatures in recent 100 years have experienced two climatic shifts from cold to warm.
Drought is one of the most complex natural hazards affecting agriculture, water resources, natural ecosystems, and society. The negative societal consequences of drought include severe economic losses, famine, epidemics, and land degradation. However, few studies have analyzed the complexity of drought characteristics, both at multiple time scales and with variations in evapotranspiration. In this study, drought occurrences were quantified using a new drought index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), based on observed data of monthly mean temperature and precipitation from 1961 to 2013 in Henan province, central China. Based on the SPEI values of each weather station in the study, the frequency and severity of meteorological droughts were computed, and the monthly, seasonal, and annual drought frequency and intensity over a 53-year period were analyzed. The spatial and temporal evolution, intensity, and the primary causes of drought occurrence in Henan were revealed. The results showed that the SPEI values effectively reflected the spatial and temporal pattern of drought occurrence. As the time scale decreased, the amplitude of the SPEI increased and droughts became more frequent. Since 1961, drought has occurred at the annual, seasonal, and monthly scales, and the occurrence of drought has increased. However, regional distribution has been uneven. The highest drought frequency, 35%, was observed in the Zhoukou region, while the lowest value, ~26%, was measured in central and western Henan. The most severe droughts occurred in the spring and summer, followed by autumn. Annually, wide-ranging droughts occurred in 1966-1968, 1998-2000, and 2011-2013. The drought intensity showed higher values in north and west Henan, and lower values in its east and south. The maximum drought intensity value was recorded in Anyang, and the minimum occurred in Zhumadian, at 22.18% and 16.60%, respectively. The factors with the greatest influence on drought occurrence are increasing temperatures, the Eurasian atmospheric circulation patterns, and the El Ni?o effect.
To investigate the diurnal variation of summer precipitation in the Qilian Mountains in the northeast Tibetan Plateau, the hourly precipitation amount for this region during the summers of 2008-2014 are analyzed using an hourly merged precipitation product at 0.1°×0.1° resolution. The main results are as follows. (1) The spatial distribution and temporal variation of mean hourly precipitation amount and frequency are generally similar and hourly precipitations in the eastern and middle portions are larger and more frequent than that in the western portion. The high value area of precipitation intensity is obviously different from that of precipitation amount and frequency. (2) The spatial distribution of daytime precipitation is generally similar to that of nighttime precipitation, and the daytime precipitation is heavier than the nighttime precipitation. (3) The change rate of precipitation has a maximum at 20:00 Beijing time, and a minimum at 12:00. The hourly precipitation amount significantly correlated with frequency, especially for the middle and eastern portions.
Lakes in the Tibetan Plateau are considered sensitive responders to global warming. Variations in physical features of lake systems such as surface area and water level are very helpful in understanding regional responses to global warming in recent decades. In this study, multi-source remote sensing data were used to retrieve the surface area and water level time series of five inland lakes in the south-central part of the Tibetan Plateau over the past decades. Changes in water level and surface area of the lakes were investigated. The results showed that the water level of three lakes (Puma Yumco, Taro Co, Zhari Namco) increased, with expanding surface area, while the water levels of the other two lakes (Paiku Co, Mapam Yumco) fell, with shrinking area. The water levels of the lakes experienced remarkable changes in 2000-2012 as compared with 1976-1999. Spatially, lakes located at the southern fringe of the Tibetan Plateau showed consistency in water level changes, which was different from lakes in the central Tibetan Plateau.
Pilot reforms gradually implemented through key nodes have become an important pattern of regional development in China since the policy of reform and opening up was introduced in 1978. On the basis of an analysis of the evolution processes and characteristics of regional development policies in post-reform China, this paper develops the concept and analytical framework of national node strategies (NNS), defined as regional development strategies centered on specific spatial nodes, by addressing their theoretical basis and research scope. The regional economic impacts of NNS were explored quantitatively through the examples of the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone, Pudong New Area and Tianjin Binhai New Area in different stages of the reform and opening up. The results indicate that the evolution of China’s regional development policies can be divided into three stages: the exploration stage led by Special Economic Zones (SEZs), the expansion stage dominated by Economic Development Zones and the optimization stage featuring State-level New Areas and National Comprehensive Reform Pilot Areas. During all the three stages, NNS have played an important demonstrative and leading role and promoted the rapid evolution of China’s regional development policies from localized to widespread implementation, and the role of the government has also changed accordingly. As an innovative application and development of the growth pole theory in transitional China, NNS have become engines of regional development as well as important conduits of institutional innovations. NNS and regional development have achieved a benign coupling and formed a gradated regional development model. Empirical research indicates that NNS are an important method used by the government to guide and regulate regional economic development, with complex and diverse economic effects that differ depending on the stage of regional development and the spatial scale of analysis.
Analysis of carbon emission mechanism based on regional perspectives is an important research method capable of achieving energy savings and emission reductions. Xinjiang, an important Chinese energy production base, is currently going through a period of strategic opportunities for rapid development. Ensuring stable socio-economic development while achieving energy savings and meeting emission reductions targets, is the key issue currently facing the region. This paper is based on the input-output theory, and conducts a structural decomposition analysis on the factors affecting energy-related carbon emissions in Xinjiang from 1997 to 2007; this analysis employs a hybrid input-output analysis framework of “energy - economy - carbon emissions”. (1) Xinjiang’s carbon emissions from energy consumption increased from 20.70 million tons in 1997 to 40.34 million tons in 2007; carbon emissions growth was mainly concentrated in the production and processing of energy resources, the mining of mineral resources, and the processing industry. (2) The analysis of the direct effects of the influencing factors on carbon emissions showed that the change in per capita GDP, the final demand structure, the population scale, and the production structure were the important factors causing an increase in carbon emissions, while the decrease in carbon emission intensity during this period was the important influencing factor in stopping the growth of carbon emissions. This showed that while the sizes of Xinjiang’s economy and population were growing, the economic structure had not been effectively optimized and the production technology had not been efficiently improved, resulting in a rapid growth of carbon emissions from energy consumption. (3) The analysis of the indirect effects of the influencing factors of carbon emission showed that the inter-provincial export, fixed capital formation, and the consumption by urban residents had significant influence on the changes in carbon emissions from energy consumption in Xinjiang. (4) The growth of investments in fixed assets of carbon intensive industry sectors, in addition to the growth of inter-provincial exports of energy resource products, makes the transfer effect of inter-provincial “embodied carbon” very significant.
