The isotope-equipped GCMs (general circulation models) are useful tools to investigate the isoscape in precipitation and water vapor, especially for the regions without enough in-situ observations. To study the spatial distribution and seasonal variation of precipitation isotopic composition in arid central Asia, several isotope-equipped GCMs are applied, and the long-term observations in two stations are used to verify the GCM-simulated results. Generally, seasonality of isotopic composition can be well simulated in each GCM, and the values of δ18O in precipitation are larger in summer months (from April to October) and lower in winter months (from November to March). Higher latitude usually shows lower values of δ18O in precipitation, and lower latitude has higher values. The values of δ18O are relatively low in the eastern section, and higher in the western section. Among these simulations, ECHAM is good at describing the isotopic composition in the study region, which can be seen from the mean absolute error (MAE) and root-mean-square error (RMSE). The ECHAM-derived values of δ18O in precipitation positively correlate with the observed series, and the correlation coefficient based on ECHAM is the largest among these GCMs.
This study analyses spatial variability and trends in annual and monthly precipitation (amount and concentration) based on data from 42 stations in mainland Portugal during the period 1960-2011. Relationships between certain geographic variables (elevation, latitude and longitude) and precipitation variability were also determined in order to check for specific dependencies and spatial patterns in precipitation distribution, concentration and changing trends. Trends and relationships have been analysed using both parametric and non-parametric tests. The results showed that annual precipitation had decreased in all stations and that this trend is statistically significant for most of the time series (70% of the stations showed negative trends with at least a 0.1 significance level). The Annual Precipitation Concentration Index revealed an opposite behaviour pattern, suggesting that even though the annual trend for precipitation amount was negative overall, more than half of the udometric stations registered a more marked seasonality for precipitation during the period 1960-2011. However, only one station showed statistical significant time trend. Regarding the influence of geographical features, latitude is the most important variable, governing spatial distribution and variations in annual precipitation as well as its intra-annual changeability. These important changes in precipitation, involving both amount and concentration, may have severe consequences for ecosystems and societies.
Proxy records of the oxygen isotopic composition of meteorological precipitation (δ18Op) preserved in archives such as ice cores, lacustrine carbonates and stalagmite calcite are important for paleoclimatic studies. Therefore, knowledge of the variations and controlling mechanisms of modern δ18Op on different time scales is necessary. Here, we investigate the linear correlations between δ18Op and corresponding temperature and precipitation on monthly and inter-annual timescales, using data from the Urumqi (1986-2003) and Hotan stations of the Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP), and δ18O data from 4 ice cores in the adjacent Tianshan Mountains. Consistent with previous reported results, modern δ18Op variations on a seasonal time scale in the Tianshan region are mainly controlled by a ‘temperature effect’ (indicated by a significant positive correlation between δ18Op and temperature), with more positive δ18Op values occurring in summer. However, on an inter-annual timescale, there is a weak inverse correlation between weighted average annual δ18Op and annual average temperature at Urumqi station. This finding is supported by the inversely varying trends of δ18O data from 4 ice cores in the central and eastern Tianshan Mountains compared to annual average temperatures in the same region during the past 40-50 years. The data from Urumqi station and the 4 ice cores demonstrate that there is inverse correlation between δ18Op and temperature on inter-annual to decadal time scales. Analysis of water vapor sources and pathways for the warm year of 1997 and the cold year of 1988 reveal that relatively more water vapor for the Tianshan region was derived from long-distance transport from high-latitude sources than during the warm year of 1997; and that more water vapor was transported from more proximal sources from mid- to low-latitude areas during the cold year of 1988. In addition, the δ18Op values are more negative in the high latitude areas than those in mid- to low-latitude areas in the Eurasian continent at the upper wind direction of Tianshan Mountains region, according to the weighted averaged warm season (May to September) δ18Op values for 14 GNIP stations in the years 1997 and 1988. Due to the distribution of δ18Op within the Eurasian continent, the relative shift of water vapor sources between warm and cold years convincingly explains the observed variations of δ18Op in the Tianshan Mountains region. Therefore, we conclude that variations in δ18Op in this region are mainly controlled by changes in water vapor sources which are ultimately caused by northward and southward shifts in the Westerly circulation.
Land function change has been the focus of scientific research and policy making worldwide. Agricultural development and land use demand at present in China shared common characteristics with the countries such as Japan, South Korea, USA, and European developed countries, which have undergone cultivated land function transition. Whether cultivated land function transition occurred is of significance for land change science and cultivated land protection in China. However, there has been no explicit methodology for cultivated land function change research. This paper firstly presents a methodology by integrating policy development analysis based on the normative connotation of cultivated land function or termed cultivated land function demand and quantitative assessment based on the positive connotation of cultivated land function or termed cultivated land function supply. Then, cultivated land function transition is diagnosed by analyzing cultivated land function change in 1949-2012. Results show that cultivated land function transition overall occurred in 2006. Specifically, the normative cultivated land function or cultivated land function demand fragmented into seven types in 1985 and upgraded in 2004. Total value of the positive cultivated land function or cultivated land function supply turned to rise with an increase from 2.40 to 2.45 as the coefficients of variability (CV) of the value of the seven functions decreased from 2.94 to 2.29 in 2006-2012. The two-year gap between these two aspects of transition mainly resulted from the time lag effects of policy implementation. In the process of the transition, co-ordination and malposition of supply and demand of cultivated land function coexisted with supply lag and function morphology distortion. Considering the transition experiences in the developed countries mentioned above, suggestions on multifunctional cultivated land management are proposed. Moreover, route of land use transition research is discussed.
The Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-S) model is a widely used method to simulate land use change. An ordinary logistic regression model was integrated into the CLUE-S model to identify explanatory variables without considering the spatial autocorrelation effect. Using image-derived maps of the Changsha- Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration, the CLUE-S model was integrated with the ordinary logistic regression and autologistic regression models in this paper to simulate land use change in 2000, 2005 and 2009 based on an observation map from 1995. Significant positive spatial autocorrelation was detected in residuals of ordinary logistic models. Some variables that were much more significant than they should be were selected. Autologistic regression models, which used autocovariate incorporation, were better able to identify driving factors. The Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (ROC) values of autologistic regression models were larger than 0.8 and the pseudo R2 values were improved, compared with results of logistic regression model. By overlapping the observation maps, the Kappa values of the ordinary logistic regression model (OL)-CLUE-S and autologistic regression model (AL)-CLUE-S models were larger than 0.75. The results showed that the simulation results were indeed accurate. The Kappa fuzzy (Kfuzzy) values of the AL-CLUE-S models (0.780, 0.773, 0.606) were larger than the values of the OL-CLUE-S models (0.759, 0.760, 0.599) during the three periods. The AL-CLUE-S models performed better than the OL-CLUE-S models in the simulation of land use change. The results showed that it is reasonable to integrate autocovariates into CLUE-S models. However, the Kfuzzy values decreased with prolonged duration of simulation and the maximum range of time was not discussed in this paper.
Based on remote sensing data of the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) in the years of 1991, 2001 and 2008, the paper built an index system of land use potential restraint factors in YRD, according to geological condition, terrain condition, water area, natural reserve area and basic farmland, and evaluated construction land potential based on the platform of GIS spatial analysis model. The results showed that: (1) the construction land increased rapidly since 1991 and reached 24,951.21 km2 in 2008, or 21.27% of the total area. Among all the cities in the YRD, Shanghai took the greatest percentage, followed by Jiangsu and Zhejiang. Spatially, areas where government departments are located became the growth center of construction land. Prefecture-level cities were the fastest growth region and the changing trend showed circle layered characteristics and significant increase with Shanghai and Suzhou as the core. (2) The higher the quality of construction land potentials (CLP), the smaller the number of CLP units. High sensitive area accounted for the largest percentage (40.14%) among all types of constraint regions and this was followed by medium sensitive region (31.53%) of the whole region. (3) The comprehensive CLP in the YRD was 24,989.65 km2, or 21.76% of the total YRD. The land use potential showed spatial distribution imbalance. CLP of Zhejiang was obviously larger than that of Jiangsu. CLP was insufficient in regional central city. Moreover, CLP in the YRD formed a circle layered spatial pattern that increasingly expanded centered in prefecture-level cities. Low potential area expanded from north to south. High potential area was mainly located in south YRD. Areas with zero potential in the YRD formed a northwest-southeast “Y-shaped” spatial pattern in north Hangzhou Bay. (4) CLP per capita in YRD was 0.045 ha/person and also unevenly distributed. Some 25.57% of the study units at county level nearly had no construction land and 8.24% of the units had CLP per capita below the national average level. CLP per capita in less than 25% of the county-level units was larger than the YRD average level, which were mainly located in Zhejiang. Therefore, research on the construction potential area in YRD was favorable for analysis of the development status and potential space of this region under the background of rapid urbanization and industrialization.
Land suitability assessment (LSA) is one of the key processes of land-use planning. Given its particularity of land suitability assessment for post-earthquake reconstruction, this paper takes into account geological conditions, risk of disasters, water and land resources conditions, and eco-environmental suitability and emphasizes safety factor in the assessment. Taking the April 20, 2013 Mw 6.6 Lushan earthquake as a case, this assessment establishes factors system, uses GIS spatial analysis techniques and data of geology, topography, resources, and eco-environment to evaluate the land suitability for reconstruction. The results show that: (1) the spatial characteristics of land suitability for reconstruction at grid scale and administrative scale manifest that most of the piedmont plains in the east are suitable for large-scale population aggregation, industrialization, and urbanization development; and (2) for the six hard-hit counties, Mingshan is the preferred region for large-scale post-earthquake reconstruction due to its high construction index and suitable land per capita, and some plots of land in the valleys could be selected for in-situ small-scale reconstruction in Lushan. The land suitability assessment for post-earthquake reconstruction would be significant to making sound reconstruction planning for achieving sustainable regional development in the Mw 6.6 Lushan earthquake stricken area. This study could be used as a reference for the regions with similar events.
About 80% of global wetland resources are degrading or disappearing; thus the wetland ecosystem has become one of the most seriously threatened ecosystems in the world. As an area sensitive to global changes and acting as a security barrier for the Asian ecosystem, the Tibetan Plateau has about 13.19×104 km2 of wetlands of special significance within China. With the increasing application of remote sensing technology to wetland research, Tibetan Plateau wetland research has entered a period of rapid development. This paper summarizes the remote sensing research literature of the Tibetan Plateau wetlands from 1992 to 2014, and is intended to provide references for future research into the wetlands of the Tibetan Plateau. We have reviewed monitoring methods, research topics, and existing problems. Our review has revealed the following characteristics: (1) Over the past 40 years, the research paradigm of the Tibetan Plateau wetlands has undergone dynamic changes in the monitoring of wetland areas, landscape patterns and the eco-environment based on remote sensing technology. Attention has also been focused on constructing models with an ecological system perspective and analyzing three patterns of change trends within the Tibetan Plateau wetlands. (2) The results of Tibetan Plateau wetland research based on remote sensing were as follows: (a) between 1970 and 2006, the Tibetan Plateau wetland area decreased overall at a rate of 0.23%/a, and the landscape diversity declined at a rate of 0.17%/a; (b) by contrast, between 1976 and 2009, the lake area of the inland river basins in the Tibetan Plateau increased at a rate of 0.83%/a; and (c) the change trend in the Tibetan Plateau wetlands was controlled by climate change. Current problems relating to remote sensing (RS)-based research in the Tibetan Plateau wetlands are computer interpretation accuracy and the processing precision of cloud removal, and the lack of a comprehensive overview of the Tibetan Plateau wetland system. Finally, based on the review, some key activities for future study have been proposed, as follows: (1) Strengthening the integration of the Tibetan Plateau wetland research with remote sensing research; (2) discussing the response and adaptation mechanisms of the Tibetan Plateau wetland ecosystem within the context of global change; (3) strengthening the integration of remote sensing (RS), geographic information system (GIS), and global positioning system (GPS), and promoting the construction of a Tibetan Plateau wetland information platform.