Journal of Geographical Sciences ›› 2017, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (12): 1481-1498.doi: 10.1007/s11442-017-1448-7
• Research Articles • Previous Articles Next Articles
Xiaoyun LI1,2,3(), Yu YANG1,2,3,*(
), Yi LIU1,2,3,*(
), Hui LIU1,2,3
Received:
2017-02-09
Accepted:
2017-03-07
Online:
2017-12-10
Published:
2017-12-10
Contact:
Yu YANG,Yi LIU
E-mail:lixy.15b@igsnrr.ac.cn;yangyu@igsnrr.ac.cn;liuy@igsnrr.ac.cn
About author:
Author: Li Xiaoyun (1987-), PhD, specialized in man-land relationship and regional development. E-mail:
Supported by:
Xiaoyun LI, Yu YANG, Yi LIU, Hui LIU. Impacts and effects of government regulation on farmers’ responses to drought: A case study of North China Plain[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2017, 27(12): 1481-1498.
Add to citation manager EndNote|Reference Manager|ProCite|BibTeX|RefWorks
Table 1
Farmer households’ responding measures"
Number of measures taken | Normal years | Disaster years | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Number of farmer households taking measures | Percentage (%) | Number of farmer households taking measures | Percentage (%) | ||
Number of farmer households not taking measures | 133 | 24.63 | 93 | 17.22 | |
Number of farmer households taking measures, among whom: | 407 | 75.37 | 447 | 82.78 | |
1 measure | 263 | 48.70 | 185 | 34.26 | |
2 measures | 112 | 20.74 | 112 | 20.74 | |
3 measures | 29 | 5.37 | 95 | 17.59 | |
4 measures | 3 | 0.56 | 42 | 7.78 | |
5 measures | 0 | 0.00 | 13 | 2.41 | |
Total | 540 | 100.00 | 540 | 100.00 | |
Variance analysis | F value | 9.011 | |||
Sig. | 0.003 |
Table 2
Farmer households’ access to early-warning information"
Got information or not | Pre-disaster | Amid- and post-disaster | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Normal years | Disaster years | Normal years | Disaster years | ||||||
Number of farmer households | Percentage (%) | Number of farmer households | Percentage (%) | Number of farmer households | Percentage (%) | Number of farmer households | Percentage (%) | ||
No | 292 | 65.32 | 291 | 56.84 | 282 | 63.66 | 286 | 55.75 | |
Yes | 155 | 34.68 | 221 | 43.16 | 161 | 36.34 | 227 | 44.25 | |
Number of channels | 1 | 132 | 29.53 | 185 | 36.13 | 140 | 31.60 | 188 | 36.65 |
2 | 21 | 4.70 | 33 | 6.45 | 19 | 4.29 | 34 | 6.63 | |
3 | 1 | 0.22 | 2 | 0.39 | 1 | 0.23 | 4 | 0.78 | |
4 | 1 | 0.22 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 0.23 | 1 | 0.19 | |
Total | 447 | 100 | 512 | 100 | 443 | 100 | 513 | 100 |
Table 3
Supports by different levels of government institutions"
Being supported | Normal years | Disaster years | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Number of samples | Proportion (%) | Number of samples | Proportion (%) | |
No | 406 | 76 | 403 | 75 |
Yes, by: | 129 | 24 | 131 | 25 |
Village | 32 | 23.40 | 37 | 26.60 |
Town | 39 | 28.50 | 37 | 26.60 |
Upper-level institutions | 63 | 46.00 | 62 | 44.60 |
Others | 3 | 2.20 | 3 | 2.20 |
Total number of supports | 137 | 100 | 139 | 100 |
Total number of samples | 535 | 100 | 534 | 100 |
Table 4
Forms of government supports and corresponding share of farmer households taking actions"
Being supported | Share of farmer households taking actions (%) | |
---|---|---|
Normal years | Disaster years | |
No | 72.17 | 81.39 |
Yes | 85.07 | 86.86 |
Technical guidance | 100.00 | 87.50 |
Financial subsidies | 85.29 | 86.96 |
Material subsidies | 83.02 | 88.00 |
Labor support | 100.00 | 100.00 |
Table 5
The regression models of farmer households’ responses (Dependent variable: taking measures=1, not taking measures=0)"
Independent variables | Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Coefficients | Exp (B) | Coefficients | Exp (B) | Coefficients | Exp (B) | |
Internal factors | ||||||
Total number of family members | -0.063 | 0.939 | -0.061 | 0.941 | -0.062 | 0.940 |
Age of household head | -0.01 | 0.99 | -0.01 | 0.99 | -0.012 | 0.988 |
Education level of household head | 0.028 | 1.028 | 0.026 | 1.026 | 0.018 | 1.018 |
Farmland area of the household (mu) | -0.051** | 0.951 | -0.049** | 0.953 | -0.040* | 0.961 |
Farmland fragmentation level (mu/piece) | -0.119** | 0.888 | -0.119** | 0.887 | -0.082 | 0.922 |
Total value of house (ten thousand yuan) | 0.004 | 1.004 | 0.004 | 1.004 | 0.006 | 1.006 |
Joined cooperation organization (Yes=1, No=0) | 0.221 | 1.247 | 0.184 | 1.202 | 0.023 | 1.023 |
Family member is/are village cadre/s (Yes=1, No=0) | -0.329* | 0.719 | -0.344* | 0.709 | -0.523** | 0.593 |
External factors | ||||||
Topography (plain=1, others=0) | 19.523 | 3.012 | 19.595 | 3.236 | 19.538 | 3.056 |
Inirrigation area (Yes=1, No=0) | 0.727*** | 2.07 | 0.699*** | 2.012 | 0.809*** | 2.246 |
Average underground water level (m) | 0.001 | 1.001 | 0.002 | 1.002 | 0.003 | 1.003 |
Policy factors | ||||||
Received early-warning information (Yes=1, No=0) | 0.412** | 1.51 | ||||
Only received pre-disaster warning | 0.076 | 1.079 | ||||
Only received post-disaster warning | 0.216 | 1.241 | ||||
Received both pre- and post-warning | 0.615*** | 1.85 | ||||
Only received warning via TV | -0.342 | 0.711 | ||||
Only received warning via one channel apart from TV | 0.499 | 1.646 | ||||
Received warning via two or more channels | 0.491** | 1.633 | ||||
The village organizes disaster prevention activities (Yes=1, No=0) | 0.326* | 1.386 | 0.321* | 1.379 | 0.223 | 1.250 |
Received government supports (Yes=1, No=0) | 0.374* | 1.454 | ||||
Supported by town-level or lower levels of institutions | 0.667** | 1.949 | ||||
Only technical guidance | 0.197 | 1.218 | ||||
Only financial subsidies | 2.057** | 7.821 | ||||
Only material subsidies | 0.019 | 1.019 | ||||
Only labor supports | 0.744 | 2.105 | ||||
Two or more types of supports | 1.100 | 3.003 | ||||
Supported by above-town level institutions | 0.308 | 1.361 | ||||
Disaster years (Yes=1, No=0) | 0.410** | 1.507 | 0.412** | 1.51 | 0.426** | 1.532 |
Constants | 1.025 | 2.786 | 1.043 | 2.838 | 1.400** | 4.057 |
Accuracy of prediction | 79.10% | 79.20% | 78.80% | |||
Degrees of freedom | 15 | 18 | 21 | |||
Number of samples | 1070 | 1070 | 936 |
[1] |
Carter M R, Little P D, Mogues Tet al., 2007. Poverty traps and natural disasters in Ethiopia and Honduras.World Development, 35(5): 835-856.
doi: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2006.09.010 |
[2] |
Chen H, Wang J X, Huang J K, 2014. Policy support, social capital, and farmers’ adaptation to drought in China.Global Environmental Change, 24: 193-202.
doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.11.010 |
[3] |
Cui Shenghui, Li Xuanqi, Li Yanget al., 2011. Review on adaptation in the perspective of global change.Progress in Geography, 30(9): 1088-1098. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2011.09.003 |
[4] |
Dai A G, 2011. Drought under global warming: A review.Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change, 2(1): 45-65.
doi: 10.1002/wcc.81 |
[5] |
Deressa T T, Hassan R M, Ringler Cet al., 2009. Determinants of farmers’ choice of adaptation methods to climate change in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia.Global Environmental Change, 19(2): 248-255.
doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.01.002 |
[6] |
Falco S D, Veronesi M, Yesuf M, 2011. Does adaptation provide food security? A micro-perspective from Ethiopia.American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 93(3): 825-842.
doi: 10.1093/ajae/aar006 |
[7] |
Fei Yuhong, Zhang Zhaoji, Zhang Fengeet al., 2007. An analysis of the influence of human activity and climate change on water resources of the North China Plain.Acta Geoscientica Sinica, 28(6): 567-571. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.1002/jrs.1570 |
[8] |
He Bin, Wu Jianjun, Lv Aifeng, 2010. New advances on agricultural drought risk study.Progress in Geography, 29(5): 557-564. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2010.05.007 |
[9] |
Holden S, Shiferaw B, 2004. Land degradation, drought and food security in a less-favored area in the Ethiopian highlands: A bio-economic model with market imperfections.Agricultural Economics, 30(1): 31-49.
doi: 10.1016/j.agecon.2002.09.001 |
[10] |
Huang Qingxu, Shi Peijun, He Chunyanget al., 2006. Modeling land use change dynamics under different aridification scenarios in Northern China.Acta Geographica Sinica, 61(12): 1299-1310. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.1007/s11442-006-0415-5 |
[11] | IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 2007. Summary for policy-makers. In: Climate Change 2007: synthesis report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. London: Cambridge University Press. |
[12] | IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 2012. Summary for policy makers. Food security and food production systems. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. London: Cambridge University Press. |
[13] | Li Maosong, Li Sen, Li Yuhui, 2003. Studies on drought in the past 50 years in China.Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 24(1): 6-9. (in Chinese) |
[14] |
Li Xinzhou, Liu Xiaodong, Ma Zhuguo, 2004. Analysis on the drought characteristic in the main arid regions in the world since recent hundred-odd years.Arid Zone Research, 21(2): 97-103. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.1007/BF02873097 |
[15] |
Liu Huamin, Wang Lixin, Yang Jieet al., 2012. Influence of climate change on farming and grazing households and its adaptation: A case study in Uxin Banner in Inner Mongolia.Resources Sciences, 34(2): 248-255. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.1007/s11783-011-0280-z |
[16] |
Liu Xiaoying, Lin Erda, 2004. Impact of climate change on water requirement of main crops in North China.Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, (2): 77-87. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.3321/j.issn:0559-9350.2004.02.013 |
[17] |
Liu Yansui, Liu Yu, Guo Liying, 2010. Impact of climatic change on agricultural production and response strategies in China. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 18(4): 905-910. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1011.2010.00905 |
[18] |
Lu Hongjian, Mo Xingguo, Hu Shi, 2010. Spatiotemporal variation characteristics of meteorological droughts in North China Plain during 1960-2009. Journal of Natural Disasters, 21(6): 72-82. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.1007/s11783-011-0280-z |
[19] |
Ma Z G, Fu C B, 2006. Some evidence of drying trend over northern China from 1951 to 2004.Chinese Science Bulletin, 51(23): 2913-2925.
doi: 10.1007/s11434-006-2159-0 |
[20] | Ministry of Water Resources (MWR), P.R. China, 2010. Bulletin of Flood and Drought Disaster in China. (in Chinese) |
[21] |
Pan Jiahua, Zheng Yan, 2010. Analytical framework and policy implications on adapting to climate change.China Population Resources and Environment, 20(10): 1-5. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.1177/0956247807076726 |
[22] | Qin Dahe, 2014. Climate change science and sustainable development.Progress in Geography, 33(7): 874-883. (in Chinese) |
[23] |
Tian Z, Zhong H L, Sun L Xet al., 2014. Improving performance of agro-ecological zone (AEZ) modeling by cross-scale model coupling: An application to japonica rice production in Northeast China.Ecological Modelling, 290: 155-164.
doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.11.020 |
[24] | Tu Qipu, Deng Ziwang, Zhou Xiaolan, 1999. Study of regional characteristics on mean annual temperature variation of near 117 years in China.Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 10(Suppl.): 34-42. (in Chinese) |
[25] | UNDP (United Nations Development Programme), 2004. A global report: Reducing disaster risk: A challenge for development, New York. Available at www.undp.org/cpr/bcpr. |
[26] |
Wang Y J, Huang J K, Wang J X, 2014. Household and community assets and farmers’ adaptation to extreme weather event: The case of drought in China.Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 13(4): 687-697.
doi: 10.1016/S2095-3119(13)60697-8 |
[27] |
Wang J X, Huang J K, Yang J, 2014. Overview of impacts of climate change and adaptation in China’s agriculture.Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 13(1): 1-17.
doi: 10.1016/S2095-3119(13)60588-2 |
[28] |
Wang J X, Mendelsohn R, Dinar Aet al., 2010. How Chinese farmers change crop choice to adapt to climate change.Climate Change Economics, 1(3): 167-185.
doi: 10.1142/S2010007810000145 |
[29] |
Wang J X, Yang Y, Huang J Ket al., 2015. Information provision, policy support, and farmers’ adaptive responses against drought: An empirical study in the North China Plain.Ecological Modelling, 318: 275-282.
doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.12.013 |
[30] | Weng Zhenlin, 2008. The application research advance and review of the farmer theory. Issues in Agricultural Economy, (8): 93-99. (in Chinese) |
[31] | World Bank, 2010. Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change: Synthesis Report.. |
[32] |
Xiao D P, Tao F L, 2014. Contributions of cultivars, management and climate change to winter wheat yield in the North China Plain in the past three decades.European Journal of Agronomy, 52(1): 112-122.
doi: 10.1016/j.eja.2013.09.020 |
[33] | Xiong Wei, Xu Yinlong, Lin Erda, 2005. The simulation of yield variability of winter wheat and its corresponding adaptation options under climate change.Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 21(5): 380-385. (in Chinese) |
[34] | Yang Jianying, Mei Xurong, Yan Changronget al., 2010. Study on spatial pattern of climatic resources in North China.Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 31(Suppl. 1): 1-5. (in Chinese) |
[35] |
Ye L M, Xiong W, Li Z Get al., 2013. Climate change impact on China food security in 2050.Agronomy for Sustainable Development, 33(2): 363-374.
doi: 10.1007/s13593-012-0102-0 |
[36] |
Zhang Guanghui, Lian Yingli, Liu Chunhuaet al., 2011. Situation and origin of water resources in short supply in North China Plain.Journal of Earth Sciences and Environment, 33(2): 172-176. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-6561.2011.02.012 |
[37] | Zhou Li, Zhou Shudong, 2012. Post-disaster adaptability to extreme weather events.China Population Resources and Environment, 22(4): 167-174. (in Chinese) |
[38] |
Zou Xukai, Ren Guoyu, Zhang Qiang, 2010. Droughts variations in China based on a compound index of meteorological drought.Climatic and Environmental Research, 15(4): 371-378. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.3788/gzxb20103906.0998 |
[1] | HOU Bingfei, JIANG Chao, SUN Osbert Jianxin. Differential changes in precipitation and runoff discharge during 1958-2017 in the headwater region of Yellow River of China [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(9): 1401-1418. |
[2] | YU Wanhui, ZHANG Lijuan, ZHANG Hongwen, JIANG Lanqi, ZHANG Ankang, Pan Tao. Effect of farmland expansion on drought over the past century in Songnen Plain, Northeast China [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(3): 439-454. |
[3] | CHEN Shaodan, ZHANG Liping, ZHANG Yanjun, GUO Mengyao, LIU Xin. Evaluation of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite precipitation products for drought monitoring over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin, China [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(1): 53-67. |
[4] | Lifang CHEN, Qun DOU, Zhiming ZHANG, Zehao SHEN. Moisture content variations in soil and plant of post-fire regenerating forests in central Yunnan Plateau, Southwest China [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019, 29(7): 1179-1192. |
[5] | Leilei MIN, Yongqing QI, Yanjun SHEN, Ping WANG, Shiqin WANG, Meiying LIU. Groundwater recharge under irrigated agro-ecosystems in the North China Plain: From a critical zone perspective [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019, 29(6): 877-890. |
[6] | Xifang WU, Yongqing QI, Yanjun SHEN, Wei YANG, Yucui ZHANG, Akihiko KONDOH. Change of winter wheat planting area and its impacts on groundwater depletion in the North China Plain [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019, 29(6): 891-908. |
[7] | Yucui ZHANG, Yongqing QI, Yanjun SHEN, Hongying WANG, Xuepeng PAN. Mapping the agricultural land use of the North China Plain in 2002 and 2012 [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019, 29(6): 909-921. |
[8] | CHEN Qiong, LIU Fenggui, CHEN Ruijie, ZHAO Zhilong, ZHANG Yili, CUI Peng, ZHENG Du. Trends and risk evolution of drought disasters in Tibet Region, China [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019, 29(11): 1859-1875. |
[9] | Jing ZHANG, Yanjun SHEN. Spatio-temporal variations in extreme drought in China during 1961-2015 [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019, 29(1): 67-83. |
[10] | Dan LIU, Chenglong YU, Fang ZHAO. Response of the water use efficiency of natural vegetation to drought in Northeast China [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2018, 28(5): 611-628. |
[11] | Honglian WAN, Hailong SONG, Chanchan ZHU, Beibei ZHANG, Mi ZHANG. Spatio-temporal evolution of drought and flood disaster chains in Baoji area from 1368 to 1911 [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2018, 28(3): 337-350. |
[12] | Xuejuan CHEN, Xingguo MO, Shi HU, Suxia LIU. Contributions of climate change and human activities to ET and GPP trends over North China Plain from 2000 to 2014 [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2017, 27(6): 661-680. |
[13] | Benlin SHI, Xinyu *ZHU, Yunchuan HU, Yanyan YANG. Drought characteristics of Henan province in 1961-2013 based on Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2017, 27(3): 311-325. |
[14] | Xianfeng LIU, Xiufang ZHU, Yaozhong PAN, Shuangshuang LI, Yanxu LIU, Yuqi MA. Agricultural drought monitoring:Progress, challenges, and prospects [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2016, 26(6): 750-767. |
[15] | ZHANG Zhao, WANG Pin, CHEN Yi, ZHANG Shuai, TAO Fulu, LIU Xiaofei. Spatial pattern and decadal change of agro-meteorological disasters in the main wheat production area of China during 1991-2009 [J]. , 2014, 24(3): 387-396. |
|