Spatio-temporal evolution of drought and flood disaster chains in Baoji area from 1368 to 1911

doi:10.1007/s11442-018-1476-y

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the collation and statistical analysis of flood and drought information in Baoji area from 1368 to 1911, and in the context of climate change, we investigated the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of drought and flood disaster chains in this area during the Ming and Qing dynasties using the methods of moving average, cumulative anomaly and wavelet analysis. The results are as follows: (1) We found a total of 297 drought and flood events from 1368 to 1911 in Baoji. Among these events, droughts and floods occurred separately 191 and 106 times, which accounted for 64.31% and 35.69% of the total events, respectively. (2) We observed distinct characteristics of flood and drought events in Baoji in different phases. The climate was relatively dry from 1368 to 1644. A fluctuant climate phase with both floods and droughts occurred from 1645 to 1804. The climate was relatively wet from 1805 to 1911. Moreover, we observed a pattern of alternating dry and wet periods from 1368 to 1911. In addition, 3 oscillation periods of drought and flood events occurred around 70 a, 110 a and 170 a, which corresponded to sunspot cycles. (3) We also observed an obvious spatial difference in drought and flood events in Baoji. The northern and eastern parts of Weihe River basin were regions with both frequent droughts and floods. (4) The sequential appearance of drought and flood disaster chains in Baoji from 1368 to 1911 was in response to global climate change. Since the 1760s, global climatic deterioration has frequently led to extreme drought and flood events.

Key words: Baoji area, drought and flood disaster chain, climate change, spatio-temporal distribution, wavelet analysis

Honglian WAN, Hailong SONG, Chanchan ZHU, Beibei ZHANG, Mi ZHANG. Spatio-temporal evolution of drought and flood disaster chains in Baoji area from 1368 to 1911[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2018, 28(3): 337-350.

Figures/Tables 7

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Event level	Event type	Classification standard
1	Catastrophic flood	The flood lasted for a long time and affected most of the area. Had a remarkable effect on local production activities and living conditions, and caused casualties.
2	Severe flood	The flood affected a large portion of the area, resulting in submerged agricultural lands, damaged crops, reduced production, destroyed housing, and prompted tax exemption.
3	Mild flood	The flood slightly affected local living conditions, crop production and socioeconomic development.
4	Normal	No droughts or floods were recorded.
5	Mild drought	The drought affected sowing and reduced crop production, and resulted in food shortages and high food prices.
6	Severe drought	The drought caused starvation, locust infestation and severe pandemic, forced people to consume wood bark and grass, and led to extremely high food prices, relocation of people and even casualties.
7	Catastrophic drought	The drought affected most of the area, resulting in nearly no harvest, extreme poverty, severe food shortages, cannibalism, frequent sightings of starved corpses and numerous casualties.

Year	Frequency (%)	Level
		Level 1 Catastrophic flood	Level 2 Severe flood	Level 3 Mild flood	Level 4 Normal	Level 5 Mild drought	Level 6 Severe drought	Level 7 Catastrophic drought
		Frequency (%)	Frequency (%)	Frequency (%)	Frequency (%)	Frequency (%)	Frequency (%)	Frequency (%)
1368-1420	8 (2.69)	0 (0)	0 (0)	0 (0)	45 (84.91)	4 (7.55)	4 (7.55)	0 (0)
1421-1470	29 (9.76)	0 (0)	3 (6)	3 (6)	21 (42)	11 (22)	10 (20)	2 (4)
1471-1520	25 (8.42)	1 (2)	2 (4)	0 (0)	25 (50)	10 (20)	8 (16)	4 (8)
1521-1570	22 (7.41)	4 (8)	2 (4)	1 (2)	28 (56)	2 (4)	11 (22)	2 (4)
1571-1620	23 (7.71)	1 (2)	1 (2)	4 (2)	27 (54)	1 (2)	9 (18)	7 (14)
1621-1670	40 (13.47)	1 (2)	5 (10)	9 (18)	10 (20)	5 (10)	16 (32)	4 (8)
1671-1720	16 (5.39)	0 (0)	5 (10)	2 (4)	34 (68)	2 (4)	6 (12)	1 (2)
1721-1770	23 (7.74)	2 (4)	4 (8)	1 (2)	27 (54)	7 (14)	9 (18)	0 (0)
1771-1820	35 (11.78)	7 (14)	5 (10)	1 (2)	15 (30)	9 (18)	13 (26)	0 (0)
1821-1870	36 (12.12)	7 (14)	3 (6)	7 (14)	14 (28)	10 (20)	8 (16)	1 (2)
1870-1911	40 (13.47)	8 (19.51)	9 (21.95)	8 (19.51)	1 (2.44)	7 (17.07)	7 (17.07)	1 (2.44)
A total of 544 a	297 (100)	31 (5.7)	39 (7.17)	36 (6.62)	247 (45.4)	68 (12.5)	101 (18.57)	22 (4.04)