Journal of Geographical Sciences ›› 2017, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (9): 1044-1058.doi: 10.1007/s11442-017-1420-6
• Research Articles • Previous Articles Next Articles
Zheng CHU1(), Jianping GUO1,2,*(
), Junfang ZHAO2
Received:
2016-08-08
Accepted:
2017-02-22
Online:
2017-09-10
Published:
2017-09-05
Contact:
Jianping GUO
E-mail:chuzheng1985@126.com;gjp@camscma.cn
About author:
Author: Chu Zheng (1985-), PhD, specialized in agricultural meteorology and related fields. E-mail:
Supported by:
Zheng CHU, Jianping GUO, Junfang ZHAO. Impacts of future climate change on agroclimatic resources in Northeast China[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2017, 27(9): 1044-1058.
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Table 1
Assimilation results of the RCP data"
Observed data | Pre-assimilation | Post-assimilation | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Average value | Error | RMSE | Average value | Error | RMSE | ||||
P | 547.50 | 959.95 | 412.45 | 1.1238 | 540.20 | 7.30 | 0.5616 | ||
T | 4.52 | 4.24 | 0.28 | 4.0893 | 4.70 | 0.18 | 2.9605 | ||
Tmin | -1.18 | -0.43 | 0.75 | 3.6150 | -0.94 | 0.24 | 3.4786 | ||
Tmax | 10.86 | 9.71 | 1.15 | 9.6059 | 11.07 | 0.21 | 8.2661 |
Table 2
The 80% assurance rate of the annual average of agroclimatic resources from 1961 to 2099"
Annual average temperature (°C) | First day with temperatures ≥10°C (d) | First frost day (d) | Potential growing season (d) | Accumulated temperature for the growing season (°C·d) | Precipitation during the growing season (mm) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Baseline | 7.70 | 128 | 292 | 183 | 3435 | 608 |
RCP4.5 | 9.67 | 125 | 294 | 187 | 3867 | 624 |
RCP8.5 | 10.66 | 124 | 298 | 193 | 4127 | 619 |
Table 3
Slope percentages of agroclimatic resources with 80% assurance rate from 1961 to 2099 that are statistically significant (%)"
Temperature | First day with temperatures ≥10°C | First frost day | Potential growing season | Accumulated temperature | Precipitation during the growing season | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Signifi- cant | Highly significant | Signifi- cant | Highly significant | Signifi- cant | Highly significant | Signifi- cant | Highly significant | Signifi- cant | Highly significant | Signifi- cant | Highly significant | |
Baseline | 99 | 98 | 3 | 4 | 43 | 28 | 48 | 26 | 87 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
RCP4.5 | 100 | 100 | 76 | 46 | 96 | 93 | 94 | 83 | 100 | 100 | 0 | 0 |
RCP8.5 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 0 | 0 |
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