Journal of Geographical Sciences ›› 2015, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (12): 1507-1520.doi: 10.1007/s11442-015-1248-x
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Yu DENG1,2, Shenghe LIU1,2, Jianming CAI1,2, Xi LU3,*(), P NIELSEN Chris3
Received:
2014-06-06
Accepted:
2015-03-15
Online:
2015-12-31
Published:
2016-01-05
About author:
Author: Ren Huiru (1983-), PhD Candidate, specialized in coastal environment and modeling. E-mail:
Supported by:
Yu DENG, Shenghe LIU, Jianming CAI, Xi LU, P NIELSEN Chris. Spatial pattern and its evolution of Chinese provincial population: Methods and empirical study[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2015, 25(12): 1507-1520.
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Table 1
Main indicators of population forecasting by the UN"
2010 | 2015 | 2020 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 2050 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total population | 133972.49 | 136974.3 | 138779.2 | 139525.6 | 139307.6 | 138158.8 | 136090.6 | 133176.8 | 129560.4 |
Urban population | 669192.56 | 761579 | 846363 | 911804 | 957649 | 984446 | 998581 | 1004090 | 1001612 |
Urbanization rate | 0.49 | 0.55 | 0.61 | 0.65 | 0.69 | 0.71 | 0.73 | 0.75 | 0.77 |
Table 2
Net-migration population to the urban area at national level"
Year | Registered residence (million) | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | Urban area | Rural area | |||||
Subtotal | Intra- province | Inter- province | Subtotal | Intra- province | Inter- province | ||
Up to 2010 | 212.25 | 83.85 | 70.39 | 13.46 | 128.4 | 75.25 | 53.15 |
Up to 2000 | 98.12 | 43.39 | 37.93 | 5.46 | 54.74 | 35.44 | 19.30 |
2000-2010 | 114.13 | 40.47 | 32.46 | 8.01 | 73.66 | 39.81 | 33.85 |
Table 3
Definitions of variables or parameters used in this analysis"
Parameters or variables | Definition |
---|---|
Rn,t | Population natural growth rate in province n for year t |
Pn,t | Population amount for natural growth in province n for year t |
P'n,t | Improved population amount for natural growth in province n for year t |
UP | Total urban population |
ΔMR | Migration amounts from rural to urban area |
ΔNM | Net inter-provincial migration matrix |
TPM | Net transition probability matrix |
M | Migration amount |
ΔM | Total net migration amounts |
δn, t | Difference between provincial population projection and the data from the UNs in province n for year t |
TPn,t | Total population amount in province n for year t |
Sn,t | Area of province in province n for year t |
DPn,t | Population density of province in province n for year t |
An | Variance of population density of province n |
Bn | Ratio of new accumulated net-migration to maximum of the total population in province n |
Cn | Ratio of new accumulated net-migration to maximum of natural growth population of province n |
Table 4
A comparison between reported population and projected population in 2010"
Province | Population 2000 (million) | Decade natural growth rate | Projected natural growth population 2010 (million) | Reported net migration 2000-2010 number (million) | Projected population 2010 (million) a | Reported population 2010 (million) | Percentage of projected population error b |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Beijing | 13.82 | 1.81 | 14.07 | +4.40 | 18.47 | 19.61 | 5.81% |
Tianjin | 10.01 | 1.80 | 10.19 | +2.07 | 12.26 | 12.94 | 5.26% |
Hebei | 67.44 | 5.99 | 71.48 | -1.81 | 69.67 | 71.85 | 3.03% |
Shanxi | 32.97 | 5.90 | 34.91 | -0.51 | 34.4 | 35.71 | 3.67% |
Inner Mongolia | 23.76 | 4.03 | 24.72 | +0.33 | 25.05 | 24.71 | 1.38% |
Liaoning | 42.38 | 1.11 | 42.85 | +0.09 | 42.94 | 43.75 | 1.85% |
Jilin | 27.28 | 2.33 | 27.91 | -0.62 | 27.29 | 27.46 | 0.62% |
Heilongjiang | 36.89 | 2.35 | 37.76 | -1.26 | 36.5 | 38.31 | 4.72% |
Shanghai | 16.74 | 1.01 | 16.91 | +5.73 | 22.64 | 23.02 | 1.65% |
Jiangsu | 74.38 | 2.34 | 76.12 | +3.50 | 79.62 | 78.66 | 1.22% |
Zhejiang | 46.77 | 4.44 | 48.85 | +7.76 | 56.61 | 54.43 | 4.01% |
Anhui | 59.86 | 6.32 | 63.64 | -4.81 | 58.83 | 59.50 | 1.13% |
Fujian | 34.71 | 6.05 | 36.81 | +1.31 | 38.12 | 36.89 | 3.33% |
Jiangxi | 41.40 | 8.08 | 44.74 | -1.76 | 42.98 | 44.57 | 3.57% |
Shandong | 90.79 | 5.27 | 95.57 | -0.91 | 94.66 | 95.79 | 1.18% |
Henan | 92.56 | 5.42 | 97.58 | -5.44 | 92.14 | 94.02 | 2.00% |
Hubei | 60.28 | 2.93 | 62.05 | -2.68 | 59.37 | 57.24 | 3.72% |
Hunan | 64.40 | 5.35 | 67.84 | -2.55 | 65.29 | 65.68 | 0.59% |
Guangdong | 86.42 | 7.65 | 93.03 | +5.98 | 99.01 | 104.30 | 5.07% |
Guangxi | 44.89 | 7.98 | 48.47 | -1.33 | 47.14 | 46.03 | 2.41% |
Hainan | 7.87 | 9.07 | 8.58 | +0.05 | 8.63 | 8.67 | 0.46% |
Chongqing | 30.90 | 3.21 | 31.89 | -1.96 | 29.93 | 28.85 | 3.74% |
Sichuan | 83.29 | 3.03 | 85.81 | -1.38 | 84.43 | 80.42 | 4.99% |
Guizhou | 35.25 | 8.23 | 38.15 | -2.10 | 36.05 | 34.75 | 3.74% |
Yunnan | 42.88 | 8.10 | 46.35 | -1.07 | 45.28 | 45.97 | 1.50% |
Tibet | 2.62 | 11.17 | 2.91 | +0.02 | 2.93 | 3.00 | 2.33% |
Shaanxi | 36.05 | 4.07 | 37.52 | -0.61 | 36.91 | 37.33 | 1.13% |
Gansu | 25.62 | 6.38 | 27.26 | -0.80 | 26.46 | 25.58 | 3.44% |
Qinghai | 5.18 | 9.76 | 5.69 | +0.05 | 5.74 | 5.63 | 1.95% |
Ningxia | 5.62 | 10.52 | 6.21 | +0.04 | 6.25 | 6.30 | 0.79% |
Xinjiang | 19.25 | 10.99 | 21.37 | +0.24 | 21.61 | 21.81 | 0.92% |
Table 5
Provincial migration in China"
Year | Total population (million) | Urban population (million) | Urbanization rate | Growth in urban population (million) | Migration from rural to urban area | Growth in migration of inter-province (million) | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Inter- province | Intra- province | Total | ||||||
2000 | 1259.95 | 456.35 | 0.36 | - | - | - | - | - |
2010 | 1339.72 | 669.19 | 0.50 | 212.84 | 34.23 | 40.26 | 74.49 | 46.07 |
2015 | 1369.74 | 761.58 | 0.56 | 92.39 | 12.74 | 14.98 | 27.72 | 17.34 |
2020 | 1387.79 | 846.36 | 0.61 | 84.78 | 11.69 | 13.75 | 25.42 | 15.91 |
2025 | 1395.26 | 911.80 | 0.65 | 65.44 | 6.01 | 7.07 | 13.08 | 8.19 |
2030 | 1393.08 | 957.65 | 0.69 | 45.85 | 2.11 | 2.48 | 4.59 | 2.87 |
2035 | 1381.59 | 984.45 | 0.71 | 26.80 | 0.00 | 1.61 | 1.61 | 0.00 |
2040 | 1360.91 | 998.58 | 0.73 | 14.14 | 0.00 | 0.57 | 0.57 | 0.00 |
2045 | 1331.77 | 1004.09 | 0.75 | 5.51 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.00 |
2050 | 1295.60 | 1001.61 | 0.77 | -2.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Table 6
Regional type and its characters of spatial pattern"
Regional type | Criterion | Ratio of new accumulated floating population (%) | Ratio of new accumulated natural population growth (%) | Province | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Class | Sub-classes | A | B | C | |||
Fast Changing Populated Region | Net immigration leading type | A>10 | b>5% | c>>1 | 99 | 18 | Beijing, Tianjin, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong |
Net emigration leading type | B<-5% | c<<-1 | -75 | 14 | Henan, Anhui, Chongqing, Hubei | ||
Natural growth leading type | b≈0% | |c|≈0 | -1 | 6 | Liaoning, Shandong | ||
Low Changing Populated Region | Net immigration type | 5<a<10 | 0<b<5% | 0<c<1 | 1 | 5 | Fujian, Hainan |
Net emigration type | -5%<b<0 | -1<c<0 | -18 | 31 | Hebei, Shanxi, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Hunan, Jiangxi, Guangxi, Sichuan, Shaanxi | ||
Inactive Populated Region | a<5 | 0<b<5% | |c|≈0 | -6 | 26 | Guizhou, Yunnan, Ningxia, Gansu, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Qinghai, Tibet |
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