Modeling demand/supply of water resources in the arid region of northwestern China during the late 1980s to 2010

doi:10.1007/s11442-015-1188-5

Abstract

Abstract:

Water demand increases continuously with an increasing population and economic development. As a result, the difference between water supply and demand becomes a significant issue, especially in arid regions. To figure out the utilization of water resources in the arid region of northwestern China (ARNWC), and also to provide methodologies to predict the water use in future, three models were established in this study to calculate agricultural irrigation, industrial and domestic water use in the ARNWC from the late 1980s to 2010. Based on river discharges in the region, the supply and demand of water resources at the river basin level were analyzed. The results indicated that agricultural irrigation demand occupies more than 90% of the total water use in the ARNWC. Total water demand increased from 31.97 km³ in the late 1980s to 48.19 km³ in 2010. Most river basins in this arid region were under medium and high water stress. Severe-risk river basins, such as the Shiyang river basin and the eastern part of the northern piedmont of the Tianshan Mountains, were found in this region. It was revealed that the water supply became critical from April to May, which was the season of the lowest water supply as determined by comparing monthly water consumption.

Key words: agricultural irrigation water demand, industrial water demand, domestic water demand, total water demand, supply and demand of water resources, arid region of northwestern China

Xingran LIU, Yanjun SHEN, Ying GUO, Shuo LI, Bin GUO. Modeling demand/supply of water resources in the arid region of northwestern China during the late 1980s to 2010[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2015, 25(5): 573-591.

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Region	Water use per unit of industrial added value (m³/10⁴ yuan)			Decreasing rate of water use per unit of industrial added value (m³/yr)
Region	1985	2000	2010	Δ1985-2000	Δ2000-2010	Δ1985-2010
Karamay	220.94	49.54	21.99	11.43	2.76	7.96
Jinchang	448.33	184.03	47.10	17.62	13.69	16.05
Jiuquan	542.15	185.88	55.19	23.75	13.07	19.48
Urumqi	558.25	108.54	49.06	29.98	5.95	20.37
Jiayuguan	666.04	133.99	30.57	35.47	10.34	25.42
Hami	868.13	202.45	65.93	44.38	13.65	32.09
Tacheng	881.13	206.90	78.20	44.95	12.87	32.12
Zhangye	984.00	256.70	97.45	48.49	15.92	35.46
Bortala Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture	1019.09	242.98	69.63	51.74	17.33	37.98
Turpan	1029.85	141.89	65.15	59.20	7.67	38.59
Kizilsu Kirghiz Autonomous Prefecture	1168.84	564.66	195.72	40.28	36.89	38.93
Changji	1031.70	188.12	56.87	56.24	13.12	38.99
Bayingolin Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture	1085.85	124.85	45.86	64.07	7.90	41.60
Counties (Cities) Direct under Yili Prefecture	1149.06	341.22	107.42	53.86	23.38	41.67
Altay	1147.27	246.53	81.30	60.05	16.52	42.64
Aksu	1216.72	279.34	106.17	62.49	17.32	44.42
Wuwei	1385.27	354.82	126.91	68.70	22.79	50.33
Kashgar	1614.70	483.12	168.37	75.44	31.47	57.85
Hotan	1867.88	609.72	252.54	83.88	35.72	64.61

	River Basin	Average annual river discharge	Water stress level
	River Basin	Average annual river discharge	Late 1980s	2000	2010
NX	Irtysh	92.31	0.06	0.05	0.08
	Ili	161.33	0.17	0.17	0.23
	Wulungu	8.83	0.18	0.20	0.38
	Bayi Basin	5.75	0.37	0.31	0.37
	Hami Basin	4.58	0.42	0.63	1.00
	Ebi Lake	42.19	0.43	0.64	0.83
	Turpan Basin	10.56	0.48	0.49	0.47
	Jeminay	1.18	0.76	0.49	0.70
	Central part, northern piedmont of the Tianshan Mountains	53.51	0.81	1.10	1.44
	Emin	18.69	0.98	0.83	1.12
	Eastern part, northern piedmont of the Tianshan Mountains	9.87	1.40	1.61	2.13
TRB	Qarqan	21.3	0.06	0.08	0.14
	Keriya	24.28	0.18	0.23	0.19
	Kaikong	48.22	0.26	0.36	0.62
	Hotan	51.37	0.29	0.35	0.30
	Weigan	36.25	0.43	0.55	0.73
	Yerqiang	73.73	0.44	0.54	0.62
	Aksu	45.96	0.39	0.62	0.88
	Kashgar	47.83	0.54	0.76	0.69
QH	Shule	13.25	0.51	0.47	0.49
	Heihe	34.94	0.72	0.61	0.69
	Shiyang	15.74	1.16	1.28	1.28

River basin	Month	Year			Assurance
River basin	Month	Late 1980s	2000	2010	25%	50%	75%
Yerqiang	Mar.	1.51	1.20	1.36	1.54	1.47	1.4
	Apr.	4.35	3.75	4.38	1.71	1.44	1.25
	May.	4.88	5.42	5.89	3.63	2.88	2.25
Aksu	Mar.	0.82	0.70	0.65	1.33	1.18	1.06
	Apr.	2.56	2.36	2.72	3.22	2.26	1.75
	May.	3.24	3.47	4.05	7.77	6.2	5.01
Hotan	Mar.	0.90	1.10	0.87	0.74	0.53	0.47
	Apr.	2.06	2.39	2.12	1.09	0.84	0.7
	May.	2.20	2.82	2.27	2.6	2.11	1.75
Kaikong	Mar.	0.70	0.48	0.59	3.3	2.58	2.06
	Apr.	1.75	1.45	1.61	5.18	4.3	3.64
	May.	2.73	2.24	2.79	6.11	5.27	4.54
Heihe	May.	2.43	1.34	1.41	1.51	1.12	0.92
	Jun.	2.67	1.57	2.86	2.51	1.84	1.49
	Jul.	1.78	1.80	2.85	5.81	4.18	2.96