Journal of Geographical Sciences ›› 2018, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (10): 1371-1384.doi: 10.1007/s11442-018-1550-5
• Orginal Article • Next Articles
Dapeng HUANG1,2(), Lei ZHANG3, Ge GAO1,2, Shao SUN1
Received:
2018-01-09
Accepted:
2018-02-28
Online:
2018-10-25
Published:
2019-01-04
About author:
Author: Huang Dapeng (1978-), PhD and Associate Professor, specialized in natural hazard risk assessment, climate change impact assessment and application of remote sensing & GIS. E-mail:
Supported by:
Dapeng HUANG, Lei ZHANG, Ge GAO, Shao SUN. Projected changes in population exposure to extreme heat in China under a RCP8.5 scenario[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2018, 28(10): 1371-1384.
Add to citation manager EndNote|Reference Manager|ProCite|BibTeX|RefWorks
Table 1
The 21 global climatic models included within NEX-GDDP"
Model name / Country | ||
---|---|---|
ACCESS1-0 / Australia | CSIRO-MK3-6-0 / Australia | MIROC-ESM / Japan |
BCC-CSM1-1 / China | GFDL-CM3 / USA | MIROC-ESM-CHEM / Japan |
BNU-ESM / China | GFDL-ESM2G / USA | MIROC5 / Japan |
CanESM2 / Canada | GFDL-ESM2M / USA | MPI-ESM-LR / Germany |
CCSM4 / USA | INMCM4 / Russia | MPI-ESM-MR / Germany |
CESM1-BGC / USA | IPSL-CM5A-LR / France | MRI-CGCM3 / Japan |
CNRM-CM5 / France | IPSL-CM5A-MR / France | NorESM1-M / Norway |
Figure 3
Maps showing projected changes in Chinese population exposure to HT into the future under RCP8.5 climate scenario and A2r population scenario. Maps showing (a) the exposure increment between 2021 and 2040 relative to the period between 1981 and 2010, (b) between 2041 and 2060 relative to the period between 2021 and 2040, (c) between 2061 and 2080 relative to the period between 2041 and 2060, and (d) between 2081 and 2100 relative to the period between 2061 and 2080"
Figure 6
Maps showing projected changes in Chinese population exposure to EHT into the future under the RCP8.5 climate scenario and A2r population scenario. Maps show (a) the exposure increment between 2021 and 2040 relative to the period between 1981 and 2010, (b) between 2041 and 2060 relative to the period between 2021 and 2040, (c) between 2061 and 2080 relative to the period between 2041 and 2060, and (d) between 2081 and 2100 relative to the period between 2061 and 2080"
Table 2
Analysis of the driving forces of changes in population exposure to HT and EHT across China (%)"
Change of population exposure | HT (≥35℃) | EHT (≥40℃) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Population factor | Climatic factor | Interactive effect between climate and population | Population factor | Climatic factor | Interactive effect between climate and population | |
Between 2021 and 2040 relative to 1981-2010 | 13.1 | 67.6 | 19.4 | 7.7 | 68.9 | 23.4 |
Between 2041 and 2060 relative to 2021-2040 | 2.9 | 67.6 | 29.5 | 0.9 | 67.1 | 32.1 |
Between 2061 and 2080 relative to 2041-2060 | 1.5 | 66.3 | 32.2 | 0.3 | 65.4 | 34.4 |
Between 2081 and 2100 relative to 2061-2080 | 1.8 | 58.4 | 39.9 | 0.1 | 59.9 | 40.0 |
Table 3
Analysis of the driving forces of changes in population exposure to HT and EHT across the different meteorological geographical divisions of China (%)"
Change in population exposure | Division | HT (≥35℃) | EHT (≥40℃) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Population factor | Climatic factor | Interactive effect between climate and population | Population factor | Climatic factor | Interactive effect between climate and population | ||
Between 2021 and 2040 relative to between 1981 and 2010 | NC | 30.1 | 40.0 | 29.9 | 19.0 | 45.6 | 35.5 |
HH | 13.5 | 63.4 | 23.1 | 8.6 | 66.9 | 24.5 | |
JHuai | 11.1 | 68.3 | 20.6 | 3.4 | 75.7 | 20.9 | |
JHan | 9.0 | 72.1 | 18.9 | 2.4 | 77.8 | 19.8 | |
JN | 9.7 | 74.6 | 15.7 | 1.9 | 78.6 | 19.5 | |
SC | 3.9 | 78.9 | 17.2 | -12.7 | 152.6 | -39.9 | |
SW | 2.5 | 92.9 | 4.6 | 0.3 | 96.4 | 0.3 | |
Between 2041 and 2060 relative to between 2021 and 2040 | NC | 8.7 | 39.7 | 51.7 | 2.6 | 43.5 | 53.9 |
HH | 2.8 | 62.3 | 34.9 | 0.5 | 65.8 | 33.7 | |
JHuai | 2.0 | 67.9 | 30.1 | 0.3 | 71.7 | 28.0 | |
JHan | 1.7 | 73.0 | 25.3 | 0.1 | 74.0 | 25.9 | |
JN | 1.3 | 77.7 | 21.1 | 0.1 | 76.0 | 23.9 | |
SC | 0.3 | 76.2 | 23.5 | -0.4 | 125.1 | -24.7 | |
SW | -2.5 | 106.5 | -4.0 | -0.4 | 107.6 | -7.1 | |
Between 2061 and 2080 relative to between 2041 and 2060 | NC | 4.7 | 36.6 | 58.7 | 0.7 | 40.0 | 59.2 |
HH | 14.6 | 58.8 | 39.8 | 0.1 | 63.2 | 36.6 | |
JHuai | 1.1 | 64.3 | 34.6 | 0.1 | 67.6 | 32.3 | |
JHan | 1.1 | 71.3 | 27.6 | 0.0 | 71.2 | 28.8 | |
JN | 1.0 | 77.2 | 21.8 | 0.1 | 75.4 | 24.6 | |
SC | 0.2 | 71.7 | 28.1 | 0.0 | 92.8 | 7.2 | |
SW | -0.9 | 108.0 | -7.0 | -0.1 | 106.7 | -6.6 | |
Between 2081 and 2100 relative to between 2061 and 2080 | NC | 3.6 | 31.8 | 64.6 | 0.3 | 35.3 | 64.4 |
HH | 1.7 | 48.7 | 49.6 | 0.1 | 56.2 | 43.7 | |
JHuai | 1.5 | 54.3 | 44.2 | 0.1 | 61.3 | 38.6 | |
JHan | 2.0 | 61.2 | 36.9 | 0.0 | 65.5 | 34.5 | |
JN | 2.1 | 66.4 | 31.5 | 0.1 | 69.0 | 30.9 | |
SC | 0.4 | 62.1 | 37.6 | 0.0 | 80.9 | 19.1 | |
SW | 0.4 | 99.9 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 100.6 | -0.6 |
[1] |
Barriopedro D, Fischer E M, Luterbacher Jet al., 2011. The hot summer of 2010: Redrawing the temperature record map of Europe.Science, 332(6026): 220-224.
doi: 10.1126/science.1201045 |
[2] |
Benmarhnia T, Kihal-Talantikite W, Ragettli M Set al., 2017. Small-area spatiotemporal analysis of heatwave impacts on elderly mortality in Paris: A cluster analysis approach.Science of the Total Environment, 592: 288-294.
doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.03.102 pmid: 28319715 |
[3] |
Blumberg G, 2014. Assessing the potential impact of heat waves in cities: Implications for hazard preparation and planning.Procedia Economics and Finance, 18: 727-735.
doi: 10.1016/S2212-5671(14)00996-4 |
[4] |
Cheema A R, 2015. Pakistan: High-rise buildings worsened heatwave.Nature, 524(7563): 35.
doi: 10.1038/524035e pmid: 26245573 |
[5] |
Chen K, Bi J, Chen Jet al., 2015. Influence of heat wave definitions to the added effect of heat waves on daily mortality in Nanjing, China.Science of the Total Environment, 506/507: 18-25.
doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.10.092 pmid: 25460935 |
[6] | Deng Zhenyong, Zhang Qiang, Xu Jinfanget al., 2009. Comparative studies of the harm characteristic of hot-dry wind and high temperature heatwaves.Advances in Earth Science, 24(8): 865-873. (in Chinese) |
[7] | Ding T, Qian W H, Yan Z W, 2010. Changes in hot days and heatwaves in China during 1961-2007.International Journal of Climatology, 30(10): 1452-1462. |
[8] |
Dong Siyan, Xu Ying, Zhou Botaoet al., 2014. Projected risk of extreme heat in China based on CMIP5 models.Advances in Climate Change Research, 10(5): 365-369. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2014.05.008 |
[9] |
Gasparrini A, Armstrong B, 2011. The impact of heat waves on mortality.Epidemiology, 22(1): 68-73.
doi: 10.1097/EDE.0b013e3181fdcd99 pmid: 21150355 |
[10] | Grumm R H, 2011. The central European and Russian heat event of July-August 2010.Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 92(10): 1285-1296. |
[11] |
Gu S, Huang C, Bai Let al.Bai L , 2016. Heat-related illness in China, summer of 2013.International Journal of Biometeorology, 60: 131-137.
doi: 10.1007/s00484-015-1011-0 pmid: 26109498 |
[12] | He Shanfeng, Dai Erfu, Ge Quanshenget al., 2010. Pre-estimation of spatiotemporal pattern of extreme heat hazard in China.Journal of Natural Disasters, 19(2): 91-97. (in Chinese) |
[13] | Huang Zhuo, Chen Hui, TianHua, 2011. Research on the heat wave index.Meteorological Monthly, 37(3): 345-351. (in Chinese) |
[14] | IPCC, 2014a.Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. In: Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland. |
[15] | IPCC, 2014b. Climate Change 2014:Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press. |
[16] | Johnson W B,2017. Phoenix breaks 112-year-old heat record.The Republic, azcentral.com. URL: . |
[17] |
Jones B, O’Neill B C, McDaniel Let al., 2015. Future population exposure to US heat extremes.Nature Climate Change, 5(7): 652-655.
doi: 10.1038/nclimate2631 |
[18] | Li Shuangshuang, Yang Saini, Zhang Donghaiet al., 2015. Spatiotemporal variability of heat waves in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region and influencing factors in recent 54 years.Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 26(5): 545-554. (in Chinese) |
[19] |
Liu Jianjun, Zheng Youfei, Wu Rongjun, 2008. Impacts of heat waves disaster on human health and its research method.Journal of Natural Disasters, 17(1): 151-156. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-4574.2008.01.026 |
[20] | Luterbacher J, Dietrich D, Xoplaki Eet al., 2004. European seasonal and annual temperature variability, trends, and extremes since 1500. Science, 2004, 303(5663): 1499-1503. |
[21] |
Mora C, Dousset B, Caldwell I Ret al.Caldwell I R , 2017. Global risk of deadly heat.Nature Climate Change, 7(7): 501-506.
doi: 10.1038/nclimate3322 |
[22] | National Meteorological Center (NMC), 2006. Handbook of Meteorological Geographical Divisions in China. Beijing: China Meteorological Press. (in Chinese) |
[23] | Peng Haiyan, Zhou Zengkui, Zhao Yonglinget al., 2005. The analysis of abnormal high temperature in 2003 summer.Scientia Meteorologica Sinica, 25(4): 355-361. (in Chinese) |
[24] |
Perkins-Kirkpatrick S E, Gibson P B, 2017. Changes in regional heatwave characteristics as a function of increasing global temperature.Scientific Reports, 7: 12256. doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-12520-2.
doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-12520-2 pmid: 28947762 |
[25] |
Riahi K, Grübler A, Nakicenovic N, 2007. Scenarios of long-term socio-economic and environmental development under climate stabilization.Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 74(7): 887-935
doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2006.05.026 |
[26] |
Riahi K, Rao S, Krey Vet al.2011. RCP 8.5: A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions.Climatic Change, 109(1): 33-57.
doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0149-y |
[27] | Schoof J T, Ford T W, Pryor S Cet al., 2017. Recent changes in U.S. regional heat wave characteristics in observations and reanalyses.Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 56: 2621-2636. |
[28] |
Shi Jun, Ding Yihui, Cui Linli, 2008. Climatic characteristics and their changing law during summer high-temperature times in East China.Acta Geographica Sinica, 63(3): 237-246. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1005.2008.00543 |
[29] |
Sun Jianqi, Wang Huijun, Yuan Wei, 2011. Decadal variability of the extreme hot event in China and its association with atmospheric circulation.Climatic and Environmental Research, 16(2): 199-208. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1146.2006.01085 |
[30] | Tan Jianguo, Lu Chen, Chen Zhenghong, 2009. Heat Waves and Human Health. Beijing: China Meteorological Press. (in Chinese) |
[31] |
Trenberth K E, Fasullo J T., 2012. Climate extremes and climate change: The Russian heat wave and other climate extremes of 2010.Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 117(D17): 2399-2417.
doi: 10.1029/2012JD018020 |
[32] |
van Oldenborgh G J, Philip S, Kew Set al., 2018. Extreme heat in India and anthropogenic climate change.Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 18(1): 365-381.
doi: 10.5194/nhess-18-365-2018 |
[33] |
Wang P, Tang J, Sun Xet al., 2017. Heat waves in China: Definitions, leading patterns, and connections to large-scale atmospheric circulation and SSTs.Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 122(20): 10679-10699.
doi: 10.1002/2017JD027180 |
[34] | World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 2013. The Global Climate 2001-2010, a Decade of Climate Extremes. Geneva, Switzerland: World Meteorological Organization. |
[35] | World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 2016. The Global Climate in 2011-2015. Geneva, Switzerland: World Meteorological Organization. |
[36] |
Xie Pan, Wang Yanglin, Liu Yanxuet al., 2015. Incorporating social vulnerability to assess population health risk due to heat stress in China.Acta Geographica Sinica, 70(7): 1041-1051. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.11821/dlxb201507002 |
[37] |
Xu Z, Fitzgerald G, Guo Yet al., 2016. Impact of heatwave on mortality under different heatwave definitions: A systematic review and meta-analysis.Environment International, 89/90: 193-203.
doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2016.02.007 pmid: 26878285 |
[38] | Yang Honglong, Pan Jie, Zhang Lei, 2015. Characteristics of regional high temperature and heat wave events over China under SRES A2 scenario.Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 31(1): 51-59. (in Chinese) |
[39] |
Ye D X, Yin J F, Chen Z Het al., 2014. Spatial and temporal variations of heat waves in China from 1961-2010.Advances in Climate Change Research, 5(2): 66-73.
doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2014.066 |
[40] |
Yin Zhan’e, Yin Jie, Zhang Xiaowei, 2013. Multi-scenario-based hazard analysis of high temperature extremes experienced in China during 1951-2010.Journal of Geographical Sciences, 23(3): 436-446.
doi: 10.1007/s11442-013-1020-z |
[41] |
You Q, Kang S, Aguilar Eet al., 2011. Changes in daily climate extremes in China and their connection to the large scale atmospheric circulation during 1961-2003. Climate Dynamics, 36(11/12): 2399-2417.
doi: 10.1007/s00382-009-0735-0 |
[42] | Zhai Panmao, Pan Xiaohua, 2003. Change in extreme temperature and precipitation over Northern China during the second half of the 20th century.Acta Geographica Sinica, 58(1): 1-10. (in Chinese) |
[43] | Zhang Kehui, Li Zhengtao, Liu Jianfenget al., 2011. Temporal-spatial feature analysis on the high-temperature and heatwaves in Hebei and its influence on industry and transportation.Geography and Geo-Information Science, 27(6): 90-95. (in Chinese) |
[44] | Zhao Lin, Wang Changke, Li Xudonget al., 2015. Public perceptions of heat wave and its impacts and adaptation for different people groups in Hainan.Journal of Arid Meteorology, 33(2): 310-316. (in Chinese) |
[45] |
Zuo J, Pullen S, Palmer Jet al., 2015. Impacts of heat waves and corresponding measures: A review.Journal of Cleaner Production, 92: 1-12.
doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2014.12.078 |
[1] | Xinyuan LIANG, Yangbing LI. Spatiotemporal features of farmland scaling and the mechanisms that underlie these changes within the Three Gorges Reservoir Area [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019, 29(4): 563-580. |
[2] | WANG Ziwei,LU Changhe. Urban land expansion and its driving factors of mountain cities in China during 1990-2015 [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2018, 28(8): 1152-1166. |
[3] | OMID Abdi,ZEINAB Shirvani,MANFRED F. Buchroithner. Visualization and quantification of significant anthropogenic drivers influencing rangeland degradation trends using Landsat imagery and GIS spatial dependence models: A case study in Northeast Iran [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2018, 28(12): 1933-1952. |
[4] | ZHANG Ming,DU Shiqiang,WU Yanjuan,WEN Jiahong,WANG Congxiao,XU Ming,WU Shuang-Ye. Spatiotemporal changes in frequency and intensity of high-temperature events in China during 1961-2014 [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2017, 27(9): 1027-1043. |
[5] | YIN Zhan’e, YIN Jie, ZHANG Xiaowei. Multi-scenario-based hazard analysis of high temperature extremes experienced in China during 1951-2010 [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2013, 23(3): 436-446. |
[6] | WANG Jing, FANG Chuanglin, WANG Zhenbo. Advantages and dynamics of urban agglomeration development on Yangtze River Delta [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2012, 22(3): 521-534 . |
[7] | JIANG Weiguo, WANG Wenjie, CHEN Yunhao, LIU Jing, TANG Hong, HOU Peng, YANG Yipeng. Quantifying driving forces of urban wetlands change in Beijing City [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2012, 22(2): 301-314. |
[8] | LIU Jiyuan, ZHANG Zengxiang, XU Xinliang, KUANG Wenhui, ZHOU Wancun, ZHANG Shuwen, LI Rendong, YAN Changzhen, YU Dongsheng, WU Shixin, JIANG Nan. Spatial patterns and driving forces of land use change in China during the early 21st century [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2010, 20(4): 483-494. |
[9] | SHI Jun, TANG Xu, CUI Linli. Climatic characteristics of high temperature in East China during 1961–2005 [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2008, 18(3): 283-294. |
[10] | GUO Liying, REN Zhiyuan, LIU Yansui. The causes of land landscape changes in semi-arid area of Northwest China: a case study of Yulin city [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2006, 16(2): 192-198. |
[11] | ZHANG Shangyin, ZHANG Dekuan, WANG Shourong, SONG Yanling. Climatic characteristics of summer high temperature and assessment methods in the large cities of North China [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2006, 16(1): 13-22. |
[12] | HE Chunyang, LI Jinggang, WANG Yuanyuan, SHI Peijun, CHEN Jin, PAN Yaozhong. Understanding cultivated land dynamics and its driving forces in northern China during 1983-2001 [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2005, 15(4): 387-395. |
[13] | SHAO Xiao-mei, ZHANG Hong-ye. On arable land changes in Shandong Province and their driving forces [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2001, 11(3): 329-335. |
|